Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- The Falcons have a two-game lead in their division and have their bye week coming up after this game.
- Denver is 5-5 this season, with three of its victories coming against the NFC South.
- The Broncos’ five wins have come against teams with a combined 15-34 record.
- Atlanta’s offense is likely to throw at an elevated rate but focus on the short-to-intermediate areas while trying to get the ball out quickly.
- Denver should be able to run the ball and Bo Nix should have time to take some downfield shots against a modest Falcons pass rush.
HOW ATLANTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Falcons have a two-game lead over the Bucs and won both head-to-head matchups against them this season, meaning they effectively have a three-game lead in the division while the Saints and Panthers both have had significant struggles and seem highly unlikely to contend at any point. Meanwhile, on the other end of things, the Falcons are well behind the Lions and the NFC East leader for the top of the conference. It is a little early to look ahead to the playoffs, but the Falcons are currently in a bit of a middle ground where they have a huge cushion in their division but are unlikely to challenge for multiple rounds of home field advantage. Atlanta is also heading into its Week 12 bye. A win here would be huge for the Falcons and further solidify their standing within their division.
The Falcons’ offense has been carried by Bijan Robinson recently, as he has accounted for 100+ yards from scrimmage in five straight games while scoring five touchdowns and averaging nearly five receptions per game during that stretch. The Falcons have some big names in the passing game and had a massive game through the air on national TV against the Bucs several weeks back, but they are a team that is built first and foremost around their running game. They are bottom-10 in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and have an offensive line that ranks third in PFF run blocking grade, while Kirk Cousins has only reached 300 passing yards in a game twice all year. This week they get a very good Broncos defense that blitzes at a high rate and ranks fourth in the NFL in man-coverage rate. They are also sixth in the NFL in rushing defense DVOA and have made it difficult for opponents to move the ball against them, currently ranking No. 1 in the league in yards per play allowed.
Consequently, the traditional running game with Bijan and Tyler Allgeier is unlikely to see the usual success, and perimeter and downfield passing may be tough for the pocket passing and immobile Kirk Cousins against Patrick Surtain II and the tough Broncos secondary while Denver brings a heavy pass rush. These factors should all drive the Falcons’ offense to flow through short-area passing with Robinson and Drake London likely to see heavy volume. The Chiefs’ blueprint from last week with RB Kareem Hunt being targeted 10 times and TE Travis Kelce being targeted 12 times would seem like something we can expect from the Falcons as well. London has played the “big slot” role for the Falcons and is used in that short-area, high-volume role more than tight end Kyle Pitts. Surtain has shadowed top WRs for other teams, like DeAndre Hopkins last week, so if that happens again in this matchup, then perhaps Pitts will be the one who sees those targets. In any event, Robinson is highly likely to touch the ball upwards of 25 times in this game with 5-8 receptions seeming likely.
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