XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 11 starts off with a bang as the Commanders visit the Eagles for a 48.5 total game with Philly favored by 3.5. If you had told me before the season that Washington would be a top-3 offense, there’s no way I would have believed it, but here we are. They’re scoring 29 points per game and Jayden Daniels has been nothing short of awesome, while Philly has kept chugging along doing what they’ve been doing for a few years now. Both teams have excellent offenses. Both teams also have above-average defenses (weird to say for WASH but they’re 12th in the league allowing 21.7 points per game, while Philly is 5th at 17.9 points per game – the same as the Chiefs). These are two very, very good offenses, but the defensive side of things may be a bit underrated. Another way to phrase this is that it’s a high total game and it should be, but there are perhaps more paths to the game coming in under its total than the field is going to realize. 

Philadelphia

On the Eagles side, Saquon Barkley is one of the highest ceiling running backs in the league on this offense but his floor is also very, very low. He’s playing 70%+ of the snaps in competitive games as well as seeing the vast majority of the RB work. In seven non-blowout games, RB2 Kenneth Gainwell has a grand total of 18 carries and 8 targets (~3.6 touches/game) while RB3 Will Shipley has only played in garbage time. Otherwise, it’s Saquon. There are two risks with Saquon. The first is touchdown equity, where he has 15 touches inside the 10-yard line but Gainwell somehow has 6 (lol) and Jalen Hurts has 14 carries of his own (it gets even worse inside the 5 where Saquon has 10 touches to Hurts’ 12). The second risk is that while Saquon has the snap share of a 3-down back, this is a low passing volume offense, and that has led to him having just 26 targets through nine games (~3/game). What this means is that Saquon is basically a 2-down running back on a great and run-heavy offense but with a shaky goal-line role. Is he a good play? Well, the Eagles are home favorites and the matchup is fine. His ceiling is outstanding – just be aware that there’s more risk here than you might realize at first glance. Gainwell’s a very low-floor RB2 play, while Shipley has only played in garbage time to this point and thus only really belongs on 5-1 onslaught builds. 

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In the passing game, the Eagles are low volume (and especially so lately) with just 26 dropbacks per game, generally needing to get by on efficiency or be pushed by their opponent to generate more volume. Washington’s offense is certainly capable of doing some pushing, but just be sensitive to game script in your builds when considering how to deploy Eagles pass catchers. The primary wide receiver duo of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are expensive but high upside. I will note, as I have before, that the 1A/1B role for the two of them really started separating last year and AJB is pretty clearly the 1 with no “A” after it. Any guy in this offense can hit for big plays, but Brown is the one averaging almost 20 yards per catch and if we think the Eagles aren’t going to throw much, I’d have Brown as the significant favorite to outscore Smith. Smith is an elite player in his own right but his upside is capped as long as Brown is on the field. He’s very good, he just needs more volume in order to really hit because he’s only getting around ⅔ of the yardage per catch that Brown is. This makes Brown a strong play in any scenario while Smith is a bit more game script sensitive. The WR3 role has primarily been Jahan Dotson though we’ve seen Johnny Wilson and Ainias Smith playing a bit as well. None of these guys are playing a lot, though. Dotson has 15 targets on the season, Wilson has 7, and Smith has 3, and keep in mind that AJB and Devonta have both missed games this year. These guys are all shaky MME punt options. 

At tight end, Dallas Goedert returned from a three-game absence last week to play 63% of the snaps and catch 2 balls (including a touchdown). Goedert’s role this season when playing alongside AJB and Devonta has been extremely modest – it’s a small sample due to all three missing games but we’ve seen 5, 4, and 3 targets in those scenarios. Goedert’s a good player but his 6.3 aDOT limits his upside due to how run-heavy the Eagles are, and he doesn’t get as much red zone volume as you might expect from a good pass-catching tight end. He’s fine but I’m not especially excited to play him. Goedert’s return sends Grant Calcaterra back to TE2 punt category. Finally, I’ll just note that Devonta and Goedert both currently have questionable tags as I write this early Wednesday morning, but given that they both got in limited practices on Tuesday I’m not worried and assuming they will both play. 

Washington

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• The Packers had a slew of players listed as questionable on their first practice report out of their bye week, with only DL Colby Wooden listed as a non-participant.
• Packers RB MarShawn Lloyd was limited Wednesday after having his 21-day practice window opened during the bye.
• The Bears are a bit banged up, with three offensive linemen, two members of the secondary, and EDGE Montez Sweat listed on the team’s first injury report to start Week 11 preparation.

HOW green bay WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Packers hit their bye week at the perfect time to avoid the “losses after you play the Lions” streak found around the league this season, also allowing quarterback Jordan Love to rest up from his strained groin suffered against the Jaguars in Week 8. We know the drill with the Packers under Matt LaFleur – expect a balanced offense that typically utilizes slow pace of play, with an emphasis on outmaneuvering their opponent through game plan and in-game adjustments. As such, the Packers can never really be counted on to push a game environment on their own. And nothing really changes here against an opponent that is looking to force teams into that approach to begin with, setting this side of the game up as a pure chess match between LaFleur and Bears head coach Matt Eberflus, both looking to outduel and outmaneuver the other.

Running back Josh Jacobs continues to nurse a quad injury coming out of the team’s bye week, while Lloyd has put together consecutive limited practices as he attempts to return from injured reserve. As things currently stand, expect Jacobs to continue forward in a lead-back role while Emanuel Wilson handles primary change-of-pace duties. In that setup, Jacobs has just three games with 20 or more running back opportunities and just two games over three targets, leaving him with fewer paths to GPP goodness considering he is not typically seeing enough pass-game involvement to remove the need for him to burst through 100 yards on the ground and score multiple touchdowns. The Packers rank seventh in yards before contact per attempt and the Bears have regressed on the ground to allow the most yards before contact in the league (2.73), making the ground game a path of least resistance for the Packers here. Even so, it comes with the caveat that Jacobs is never overly likely to see a spike in volume and still requires multiple touchdowns to return GPP viability.

Love has appeared in six fully healthy games this season, averaging 36.33 pass attempts per game in those appearances. That said, that number is ballooned by the 54-pass-attempt loss to the Vikings and the 39-pass-attempt loss to the Lions. In his three fully healthy wins this year, Love has averaged 30.33 pass attempts per game, giving us a clear idea of how LaFleur and the Packers would prefer to approach games. Green Bay pass catchers have a total combined two games of double-digit targets this season, one each by Romeo Doubs (10 in Week 7) and Dontayvion Wicks (13 in Week 4 against the Vikings in a game without Christian Watson). This offense is just never going to amass a ton of pass volume and there are no fewer than five primary skill-position players that see consistent usage on a weekly basis now. After it seemed like Watson took over the primary downfield option following he and Wicks sharing the role (Week 8), the two returned to a near-even split in snaps a week later. Jayden Reed has as many games under 70% of the offensive snaps played as he does over 70%. Tight end Tucker Kraft is a clear every-down tight end but has just three games over a modest four targets all season. This offense is simply content spreading things around, and the Packers have the depth and talent to do just that. Finally, the matchup is a poor one against a Bears defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has already been ruled out for Week 11 against the Lions, meaning Mac Jones will draw his second consecutive start.
• Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby did not practice Wednesday after sustaining an ankle injury in the team’s Week 10 loss.
• Lions TE Sam LaPorta picked up an AC joint sprain in his shoulder in the team’s Week 10 comeback win over the Texans. He appears unlikely to play this week although the injury has been deemed mild in nature.
• I can’t remember the last time I saw a 14-point spread in an NFL game.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

After last week’s game plan against the Vikings, it is clear head coach Doug Pederson is taking a training wheels approach with his backup quarterback. Mac Jones had an abysmal 6.6 average intended air yards per pass attempt value, with 13 of his 22 pass attempts aimed at one of three tight ends to play significant snaps. The team utilized an elevated 61% 12-personnel rate in that contest and managed a paltry 44 offensive plays run from scrimmage while not able to sustain a drive outside of their second possession. As such, I think it’s clear that the team would like to crack down on defense after shifting to an insane 88.1% two-high utilization rate against the Vikings (this defense has mixed up coverages and alignments more than any team in the league this year), playing over 64% of their defensive snaps through the combination of Cover-2 (38.1%) and Cover-6 (26.2%), to give their team the best chance to stay in this game.

The likely absence of Tank Bigsby leaves the backfield in the seemingly overtaken hands of Travis Etienne after the former alpha back played under 40% of the team’s offensive snaps in his previous three appearances. Etienne’s 4.3 yards per carry mask an inability to generate yardage on his own, punctuated by just 2.57 yards after contact per attempt and 10 missed tackles forced on 70 carries this season. For comparison, Bigsby holds a 4.33 yards after contact per attempt mark and 27 missed tackles forced on 95 carries. And then there’s the matchup against a Lions defense forcing the fourth highest pass rate over expectation while holding opponents to the sixth fewest rushing yards per game (100.8). It is worth noting that the Lions have largely been “good against the run” due to routinely forcing extremely negative game scripts for their opponents more so than they are simply stout against the run as they are allowing 4.4 yards per carry (17^th) behind a middling 1.87 yards allowed before contact per attempt.

An absurd 13 of 22 passes from Mac Jones in the team’s Week 10 loss to the Vikings were directed at tight ends, with Evan Engram leading the way with eight looks, followed by three for Brenton Strange and two for Luke Farrell. It then starts to make sense how Jones held a lowly 6.6 average intended air yards per pass attempt. Except now the team gets an inside-out funnel pass defense in the Lions, one that has ceded the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. In other words, the team’s ability to move the football at a meaningful rate likely comes down to Jones’ ability to push the ball outside the hashes to Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, which isn’t something that I would be inclined to bet on in this setup. Newly anointed slot man Parker Washington saw his snap rate crippled due to the heavy 12-personnel rates a week ago, something that would likely have to reverse for him to see the field at a meaningful rate.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• There is a huge rest disparity in this game with the Raiders coming off their Week 10 bye and the Dolphins playing on a short week after traveling cross country to play the Rams on Monday night.
• Las Vegas has announced it will be sticking with Gardner Minshew at QB, but Desmond Ridder waits in the wings after replacing Minshew in their last game and Aidan O’Connell is expected back in the next couple of weeks.
• Miami has averaged 23.3 points in the four complete games Tua played, while averaging 10 points per game in the five games that he missed or left early.
• The Raiders have allowed 31 points per game during their five-game losing streak, with four of their opponents setting their season high in points scored.
• This will be the first game for the Raiders under new offensive coordinator Scott Turner after Luke Getsy was fired following the Week 9 blowout loss to the Bengals.

HOW LAS VEGAS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Raiders are coming off their Week 10 bye and are searching for answers. Their offensive struggles this season should not be that surprising and you could even make the case that they have overachieved a bit. They fired Getsy, and while he was not great, there are much deeper issues than that. The Raiders almost certainly have a bottom-five QB situation in the NFL right now and they arguably have a bottom-five RB room as well. Brock Bowers is a great young tight end and Jakobi Meyers is a nice receiver, but if we were ranking WR1s across the NFL, he would definitely fall in the bottom 10 of that list. They are below average at the WR2 and WR3 spots as well and the offensive line hasn’t been great, either. The bottom line here is that the Raiders aren’t awful in any spot but they are below average almost everywhere offensively and their defense hasn’t been great either, which exaggerates their offensive shortcomings. The Raiders fired Getsy after an underwhelming first nine weeks of the season, but it is hard to get too excited about a rejuvenated offense with the reality of the personnel they are dealing with.

The Raiders are coming off a bye week, which is usually a time for reflection for struggling NFL teams. Considering the fact that head coach Antonio Pierce earned his job at the end of last season with some nice wins behind a ground-and-pound approach, it won’t be surprising if the Raiders’ offense works under that kind of directive this week against Miami’s defense, which ranks 25th in rushing defense DVOA. Zamir White was the workhorse for the Raiders during that stretch to end 2023, and while he has fallen behind Alexander Mattison on the depth chart this year, it won’t be surprising to see the Raiders work in more of a timeshare this week. 

When the Raiders do turn to the air, we can expect Bowers and Meyers to be the clear focal points. Miami plays league-average rates of both man and zone coverage and notably was able to get a LOT of pressure on Matthew Stafford on Monday night. The Raiders will almost certainly work to get the ball out of Minshew’s hands quickly through the air and will look to drain the play clock and run the ball at a high rate for as long as they can. The Raiders held their opponents to 15 points per game during the last five games of the 2023 season and controlled tempo, shortening games. That will be the approach to this one for Las Vegas as well, it’s just a matter of whether or not they can actually execute that game plan and stick with it against an explosive Miami offense.

How MIAMI Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• The Rams have played in seven games decided by one score or less, out of nine total games. That should highlight how Sean McVay approaches game management.
• Both Rams offensive tackles (Rob Havenstein and Joe Noteboom) have yet to practice this week, as of Thursday. Center Jonah Jackson and left guard Steve Avila are off the injury report after each dealing with various injuries already this season.
• Kyren Williams has one of the most robust workloads in the league.
• Rhamondre Stevenson averages 19.23 DK points on 21.5 opportunities per game in games the Patriots are not blown out.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Rams have played in seven games decided by one score or less, out of nine total games. That should highlight how McVay approaches trying to win football games, with a more holistic approach to game management than simply trying to design individual plays to exploit his opponent. That isn’t to say McVay doesn’t pay attention to game planning or that this team plays to their opponent, simply that McVay approaches football games trying to emerge with a victory, an approach that can look differently dependent on the opponent, the week, the state of his roster, the weather, whether the game is at home or on the road, or any other variable at play leading up to, and during, and NFL game. Against an opponent averaging the second-fewest points per game this season (16.0), the game plan (and the adjustments made during the contest) could look a lot different than they did against the Vikings, or the Packers, or the 49ers. I expect a more run-balanced approach with short-area passing mixed in on early downs, designed to be an extension of the run game to keep the team ahead of the sticks and sustain drives. We’ll continue to see the individual design elements that make a McVay offense superb, like pre-snap motion, layered routes, and dynamic route structure that can change based on a player’s read, but the overall aggression likely takes a significant step back due to the opponent.

Williams has a ridiculous seven games with more than 85% of the team’s offensive snaps across his nine appearances, leading to one of the most robust workloads in the league. His 49 red-zone touches lead the league, his 19.6 carries per game rank second, his 10 total touchdowns rank second, he has scored in all but one game (last week when the Rams failed to score an offensive touchdown for only the second time with Matthew Stafford under center), and his opportunity share ranks second. Williams is running behind a middling offensive line, one that is likely better on paper than they have performed this season due to the myriad of injuries they have been forced to fight through. That said, two primary contributors along the offensive line in Havenstein and Noteboom (both tackles) have yet to practice this week, but the interior has recently gotten healthier with the returns of center Jonah Jackson and left guard Steve Avila. Consider it a plus matchup for Williams and the Los Angeles run game.

Puka Nacua played in his first fully healthy game of the season in Week 10, parlaying a 79% snap rate into a 9-98 line on 14 targets. Yes, Cooper Kupp is still capable of getting the job done, but Puka is the alpha through the air in this offense. The two are tied at 0.32 targets per route run while Puka leads in yards per route run (2.60 to 2.16) in a more downfield role (10.4-yard aDOT to the 6.9 of Kupp). Either way, the combination of Puka and Kupp accounts for 64% targets per route run and a 59.6% first-read target rate – pretty decent, if you ask me. Demarcus Robinson should be on the field in a near every-down role for an offense that lives out of 11-personnel, something that has also influenced the tight end snaps of late. Davis Allen came out of nowhere to usurp Colby Parkinson for offensive snaps in Week 10, leading the unit with an 80% snap-rate share and converting six targets into 34 yards. Realize those six targets came in a game in which Stafford threw the football 46 times, but Parkinson was supposed to be the bridge tight end after signing a lucrative contract this offseason.

How NEW ENGLAND Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Jameis Winston’s pass attempts in two games as the starter: 41 and 46.
• Cedric Tillman’s target counts in three games as the primary option through the air post-Amari Cooper trade: 12, 9, and 11.
• Nick Chubb in three games since being activated from IR: 11 carries and three targets on a 36% snap rate, 16 carries and two targets on a 61% snap rate, 15 carries and one target on a 35% snap rate.
• Browns offensive plays run from scrimmage in two Jameis starts: 69 and 79.
• The Saints have forced (allowed?) the fifth highest pass rate over expectation this season.
• The Browns have boosted the total number of offensive plays by 10% in each of their games with Jameis Winston under center.
• The Cleveland offensive line finally appears to be healthy coming out of their bye.
• Saints RB Jamaal Williams has yet to practice (as of Thursday) with a groin injury he aggravated last week.
• This game has all the makings of an eruption spot.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Jameis Winston swooped in to save fantasy land in Week 8, starting the previous two games for the Browns before their Week 10 bye. In those games, he attempted 41 and 46 passes while his offense ran 69 and 79 offensive plays from scrimmage, while their defense ceded 24 points to the Ravens and 27 points to the Chargers. The Ravens ran 68 offensive plays in their meeting (137 combined offensive plays) while the Chargers ran 57 (136 combined offensive plays). The median in offensive plays run from scrimmage in 2024 is about 124, meaning the Browns have combined with their previous two opponents (with Jameis under center) to boost the number of plays in their games by 10%. All of that to say, game environments involving the Browns are starting to look mighty enticing. And we’ve seen this play out in consecutive seasons in Cleveland, with a quarterback change behind Deshaun Watson sparking a DGAF mentality as a back-half playoff push unfolds. It is a slightly different starting point this year with the team sitting at 2-7, meaning they realistically have to win out or win all but one game to make the playoffs out of the AFC, but that back-against-the-wall, throw caution to the wind mindset is back – and we are here for it.

Nick Chubb made his season debut in Week 7 after rehabbing a disastrous knee injury suffered in 2023, handling an average of 16 running back opportunities on muted snap rates. That said, he continues to see extreme touch-to-snap rates and could be in line for increased opportunities in the right game environment out of the team’s bye week. Jerome Ford returned from injury in Week 9 to reclaim the primary change of pace role, playing 46% of the offensive snaps but seeing just two carries and three targets, highlighting the emphasis of Chubb in the offense now that he is active. The matchup against the Saints is about as good as it gets considering they are allowing the second most yards before contact per attempt and the fourth most fantasy points per game to the position.

As was touched on above, Cedric Tillman has operated as the true primary option through the air for the Browns after Amari Cooper was moved. He has averaged almost 11 targets per game in the three contests without Cooper and is set up well to continue to see his salary increase the rest of the season in DFS. We’ll talk more about the psychological aspects at play with his recent rise in salary below. Jerry Jeudy has played all but six offensive snaps since Cooper was shipped off, with Elijah Moore operating in a true slot role with snap rates between 64% and 76% in the previous three games. The offense has been rooted in 11-personnel during the recent three-game stretch, placing a relative cap on the snap rate of tight end David Njoku (82%, 84%, and 77% snap rates) as the team continues to rotate Jordan Akins and Geoff Swaim through in situational and package roles. Jeudy has yet to erupt in the current configuration of the offense but he has seen 19 targets over the last two weeks and put up 73 yards or more in each contest. At least as far as usage and production are concerned, the pecking order through the air goes Tillman, Jeudy, Moore, and Njoku at present.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The notable injuries for the Steelers early in the week are Najee Harris (DNP), Donte Jackson (DNP), and Alex Highsmith (DNP).
• The notable injuries for the Ravens are Kyle Hamilton (DNP) and Isaiah Likely (LP).
• Lamar Jackson has been the best fantasy performer of the year but his matchup on the road against the Steelers couldn’t be any tougher.
• Derrick Henry has looked rejuvenated with the Ravens but he also draws a difficult matchup on the road.
• The Ravens throw to a lot of different pass catchers and there is added uncertainty as to how Diontae Johnson will be deployed.
• Mark Andrews played the most snaps of the season last week with Likely sidelined.
• Russell Wilson has given the Steelers offense a boost in real life but he isn’t throwing enough to generate big fantasy scores.
• Najee Harris is in a timeshare with Jaylen Warren. They both get work in Arthur Smith’s RB-centric offense but they both draw a miserable matchup on the ground against the Ravens.
• George Pickens has the best matchup on the Steelers against a Ravens defense that has been torched by WR1s.
• The Steelers defense is very cheap for an elite unit, playing at home, in a division rivalry game.

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The 7-3 Ravens come into Week 11 fresh off their second dramatic victory over the Bengals. The Ravens won the first meeting in OT (after Cincy missed a game-winning FG), and their second meeting on a failed two-point conversion attempt (with multiple uncalled facemasks). It’s incredible to think how different the standings would look if the Ravens had lost either of those games, but in our timeline, the AFC North is a two-horse race between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. John Harbaugh has long been one of the best coaches in the league, and his impact on the success of Lamar Jackson isn’t talked about enough. It’s easy to forget statuesque Joe Flacco was the Ravens QB for a large portion of Harbaugh’s tenure, even winning a Super Bowl. The truth is that Flacco was never more than league average. What’s remarkable is that making Flacco successful required a totally different style of offense than what the Ravens have run with Jackson. There aren’t many coaches who are able to adapt their entire style of play to fit their QB’s strengths. It’s much more common for a coach to say, “I need the right player for my system” then it is for a coach to say, “I’ll make the right system for my player.” Jackson was raw when he entered the league but Harbaugh’s system made the most of his legs and allowed him time to develop as a passer.  We’ll never know how Lamar would have turned out had he been drafted by a different team but there is a real chance the only difference between Lamar becoming an MVP or becoming Justin Fields is getting drafted by John Harbaugh.

The Ravens play slow (28^th in seconds per play) and favor the run (28^th in PROE). They profile as a grind-it-out offense but don’t let the above numbers fool you, the Ravens have been the best offense in the league. They have been putting up yards in bunches and have been equally dominant through the air as on the ground (first in both in DVOA). To put into perspective just how good the Ravens offense has been, they lead the league with a positive 38% overall DVOA value. The Commanders are second with a positive 21% value. The rest of the top ten have between a 17%-10% positive DVOA value. Wow. It’s not like they’re putting up a bunch of hollow yards either. They also lead the league in points (318). The Ravens offense has been the best in the league and it’s not particularly close. This week will be a tough test, on the road, in a rivalry game against a stingy Steelers defense that has allowed the second fewest points (146). The Steelers are tough against the pass (10^th in DVOA) and the run (9^th in DVOA).  The Steelers also sport a fierce pass rush led by perennial defensive player of the year candidate T.J. Watt. The Ravens O-line has been good (11^th ranked by PFF) making the pass blocking battle a strength-on-strength matchup. The Ravens tend to play close-to-the-vest games against the Steelers but this is a more explosive Ravens team than they’ve had in the past. Expect Baltimore to try and score but with a willingness to play more conservatively if the game flow seems like it’s going to be low scoring. 

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Oh boy, the defense I would consider the top unit in the league, with the highest blitz rate in the league, against the team ranked 30^th in giveaways per game (1.9) and 26^th in sacks taken per game (3.1).
• Vikings RB Aaron Jones was limited in both sessions so far this week (as of Thursday).
• Vikings QB Sam Darnold returned to a full practice Thursday while dealing with a throwing hand injury.
• Titans RB Tony Pollard upgraded from a DNP Wednesday to a limited showing Thursday, making it likely he plays against the Vikings.
• Titans corner L’Jarius Sneed is still not practicing with a quad injury that has held him out of action for the previous four games.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings have been able to leverage a top defense to dictate their game environments this season. Quarterback Sam Darnold has six games of 28 pass attempts or fewer, with just 31, 34, and 38 attempts in the other three games. On paper, the Vikings carry the eighth highest pass rate over expectation this season (in keeping with a Kevin O’Connell offense), but the fact of the matter is that their expectation baseline is extremely low due to the effectiveness of their defense. Furthermore, their offense hasn’t exactly been dominant in yards per play (5.6, 13^th in the league), with the true genius being their ability to keep teams off balance, stay ahead of the chains, and hit their primary pass-catchers downfield in key situations. The fact that the best wide receiver in the game has just one game of double-digit targets speaks volumes to the effectiveness of the Minnesota defense, as this man could command targets with the best wide receivers to ever play the game. This spot presents an interesting dynamic as the Titans have been highly effective at suppressing total offensive production this season after all their offseason additions, ranking second in yards allowed per game.

Lead back Aaron Jones has five games this season with 20 running back opportunities or more, with three games of 25 running back opportunities or more. That has left him with one of the more robust weekly “pre-touchdown” floors in the league – a floor that is right in line with his overall RB16 ranking on the year. His 31 red zone touches ranks 11^th in the league but has returned just three total touchdowns, good (bad?) for a lowly 1.8% touchdown rate on 142 carries and 32 targets. That works out to 15.8 carries and 3.6 targets per game across nine appearances. Basically, Jones provides a solid weekly floor but has returned a 4x salary multiplier on his Week 11 salary just once and a 3x salary multiplier just twice all season. The addition of Cam Akers at the trade deadline has also removed the need to run Jones in true workhorse usage, most likely to be around 60-65% snap rates for the remainder of the season. That relative cap on his usage upside only takes a hit in game environments the Vikings control considering the age and tread off of Jones’ tires. The matchup on the ground against the Titans is “fine” with the team ranked near the middle of the pack in most meaningful metrics against the run this season.

Justin Jefferson just continues to put up elite underlying metrics, the custodian of a 42.4% air yards share, 12.3 aDOT, 29.7% target share, 0.28 TPRR, 2.99 YPRR, and 35.8% first-read target share this season. But his volume has not yet matched his elite talent having double-digit targets just once all season. The likeliest scenario leaves him in the eight to nine target range most weeks, highly dependent on the opposition’s ability to achieve some level of offensive success against a Vikings defense allowing just 17.4 points per game this season (third). Tight end T.J. Hockenson has been held to 46% of the offensive snaps or fewer in each of his two games this season after being activated from injured reserve, which is a mark that is likely to gradually increase as the season moves on considering the Vikings are working towards building their team for the playoffs. That has kept both Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt involved, with snap rates dependent on personnel utilization. Jordan Addison continues to serve as the primary perimeter receiver opposite Jefferson while Jalen Nailor has been relegated to situational roles with Addison back in the fold. The truth of the matter with these secondary options is that none of them are likely to see more than five to six targets on a weekly basis in the current structure of this offense.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Colts head coach Shane Steichen has gone back to Anthony Richardson under center, reportedly for the rest of the season. This is the correct decision for the future of the franchise, in my opinion.
• Michael Pittman practices in full on Wednesday after missing the team’s Week 10 loss.
• The Jets have been a veritable disaster this season despite every effort to shake things up, going so far as to fire their head coach and snag wide receiver Davante Adams at the trade deadline.
• The Jets’ primary wide-receiver splits against Cover-3 after the addition of Adams are interesting, to say the least.

HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Steichen has gone back to Richardson under center, reportedly for the rest of the season. This is the correct decision for the future of the franchise, in my opinion, but places a significant damper on the upside of the offense considering his league-low completion rate creates a relative inability of the offense to sustain drives. We know a few things about the quarterback situation in Indianapolis this season: (1) Richardson was not good in the structure of the offense to begin the season; (2) Richardson had a scramble rate when pressured nearly two-thirds lower than in his brief rookie season, and (3) Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco had three really poor fantasy outings in four starts. I still regard Steichen as one of the better “scheme coaches” in the league, in that he is adept in creating an offense built around the players he has on the field, typically serving to maximize the upside of his best options. The problem, to me, is that he has not coached to those same tendencies this season (again, at least to me, and from what I saw on tape), which begs the question of “does Steichen stop trying to force the square peg (Richardson) into the round hole (the offensive structure)” in Richarson’s second stint as the starting quarterback of the offense? I have to think us seeing a new-look Colts offense in the coming weeks is at least on the table. But as things currently stand, this offense is likely in a really tough spot against a Jets defense holding opponents to 302.3 yards per game (seventh), 21.4 points per game (10^th), and 168.3 passing yards per game (second).

Jonathan Taylor continues to operate in a quietly massive workhorse role in healthy games this season, ranking first in opportunity share (87.4%), third in snap rate (78.4%), and first in breakaway run rate (15.1%). The Indianapolis offensive line has been equally as good, blocking to the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt (2.27) while ceding just a 28.9% pressure rate on dropbacks. The matchup in the trenches is a difficult one against a Jets defense allowing just 1.73 yards before contact per attempt while generating pressure at the second-highest rate this season, per Fantasy Points Data. But for this offense to be successful in sustaining drives, we need to see better structure and play-calling tendencies on early downs, both of which should limit the times the team faces third-and-long situations, the situations that really got Richardson into trouble in his first stint as the starter.

The likely return of Pittman after the veteran receiver missed Week 10 should return Adonai Mitchell to a situational role after the promising rookie led the team in snap rate (94%) and was on a route in 37 of 39 Joe Flacco dropbacks a week ago. Alec Pierce should retain his role as the primary downfield options while Josh Downs is locked into a “standard for a slot receiver” 60-70% weekly snap rate role, considering the team’s elevated 12-personnel utilization rates. Somewhat shockingly, Pittman has just one game all season with more than 36 yards in which Richardson started, highlighting the veteran’s emphasis on timing over separation, something that is a difficult bet with Richardson under center. An interesting aspect of this matchup that is likely to go overlooked by the field is the fact that the Jets face the third deepest aDOT (9.9 yards) while Richardson has the deepest average intended air yards (13.0) this season. Pierce’s aDOT in passes thrown by Richardson this season stands at a ridiculous 23.0, by far the deepest in the league, and the young speedster also leads the team in receiving yardage in games started by Richardson (251).

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• The Falcons have a two-game lead in their division and have their bye week coming up after this game.
• Denver is 5-5 this season, with three of its victories coming against the NFC South.
• The Broncos’ five wins have come against teams with a combined 15-34 record.
• Atlanta’s offense is likely to throw at an elevated rate but focus on the short-to-intermediate areas while trying to get the ball out quickly.
• Denver should be able to run the ball and Bo Nix should have time to take some downfield shots against a modest Falcons pass rush.

HOW ATLANTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Falcons have a two-game lead over the Bucs and won both head-to-head matchups against them this season, meaning they effectively have a three-game lead in the division while the Saints and Panthers both have had significant struggles and seem highly unlikely to contend at any point. Meanwhile, on the other end of things, the Falcons are well behind the Lions and the NFC East leader for the top of the conference. It is a little early to look ahead to the playoffs, but the Falcons are currently in a bit of a middle ground where they have a huge cushion in their division but are unlikely to challenge for multiple rounds of home field advantage. Atlanta is also heading into its Week 12 bye. A win here would be huge for the Falcons and further solidify their standing within their division.

The Falcons’ offense has been carried by Bijan Robinson recently, as he has accounted for 100+ yards from scrimmage in five straight games while scoring five touchdowns and averaging nearly five receptions per game during that stretch. The Falcons have some big names in the passing game and had a massive game through the air on national TV against the Bucs several weeks back, but they are a team that is built first and foremost around their running game. They are bottom-10 in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and have an offensive line that ranks third in PFF run blocking grade, while Kirk Cousins has only reached 300 passing yards in a game twice all year. This week they get a very good Broncos defense that blitzes at a high rate and ranks fourth in the NFL in man-coverage rate. They are also sixth in the NFL in rushing defense DVOA and have made it difficult for opponents to move the ball against them, currently ranking No. 1 in the league in yards per play allowed.

Consequently, the traditional running game with Bijan and Tyler Allgeier is unlikely to see the usual success, and perimeter and downfield passing may be tough for the pocket passing and immobile Kirk Cousins against Patrick Surtain II and the tough Broncos secondary while Denver brings a heavy pass rush. These factors should all drive the Falcons’ offense to flow through short-area passing with Robinson and Drake London likely to see heavy volume. The Chiefs’ blueprint from last week with RB Kareem Hunt being targeted 10 times and TE Travis Kelce being targeted 12 times would seem like something we can expect from the Falcons as well. London has played the “big slot” role for the Falcons and is used in that short-area, high-volume role more than tight end Kyle Pitts. Surtain has shadowed top WRs for other teams, like DeAndre Hopkins last week, so if that happens again in this matchup, then perhaps Pitts will be the one who sees those targets. In any event, Robinson is highly likely to touch the ball upwards of 25 times in this game with 5-8 receptions seeming likely. 

How DENVER Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• This is the second meeting between these teams, with the 49ers winning the first matchup, 36-24, in Seattle in Week 6.
• Christian McCaffrey made his season debut in Week 10 and played 89% of the snaps, quickly resuming his elite role on a high-powered offense.
• San Francisco is in a battle within its division, as all four teams are within a game and a half in the standings.
• The 49ers have won six straight games over the Seahawks and have won the last four by at least 12 points.
• DK Metcalf will make his return from a sprained MCL after sitting out two games and the bye week.

HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Seahawks are in a bit of a free fall and their Week 10 bye came at just the right time. After starting 3-0 against a soft schedule, Seattle has gone 1-5 in its last six games while losing those five games by an average of 12.2 points. One of those was a 36-24 home loss on a short week to this same 49ers team that was playing without CMC, but that did have Brandon Aiyuk at that time. The Seahawks lost in overtime to the Rams prior to their Week 9 bye after failing to convert a fourth down in the Rams red zone and then giving up a long TD to end it. Seattle’s defense has been an issue during its recent losing stretch, allowing 26+ points in all of those losses. This 49ers offense is very high-powered and has given them the business once already this year, so the Seahawks must enter this game knowing that they need to put a big number on the scoreboard to have a chance.

The Seahawks rank second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) as Geno Smith has adjusted to new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s scheme. Metcalf’s return is important in what should be a physical game against a very good 49ers defense, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a breakout game against the Rams in Metcalf’s absence. It will be interesting to see if the Seahawks keep JSN in an expanded role and use the full route tree he is capable of now that he has shown it in game action. Prior to his big Week 8 performance, he had been used primarily on very basic routes and in the short areas of the field. We may see the passing game fully evolve now with Metcalf and JSN emerging as one of the top WR duos in the league, as envisioned when JSN was selected in the first round of last year’s draft.

The high pass rate is also in large part a function of a very flawed offensive line that struggles to get a push in the running game against good defenses and has a hard time providing protection against teams that blitz at a high rate. The 49ers blitz at the third-highest rate in the league, dropping more defenders in coverage and relying on their front four to apply pressure. They have some very good pass rushers, so they may be able to overwhelm the Seahawks’ offensive line even though they only managed one sack in the first game. As far as DVOA metrics go, the 49ers rank second against the pass and 20th against the run. However, the inefficiency of the Seahawks is such that it is hard to imagine they can run at a high rate or do so effectively in this matchup. Seattle should enter this game knowing it needs a lot of points and its most likely way to get there is through Metcalf, JSN, and getting Kenneth Walker III involved in the passing game. The Seahawks fell way behind in the first matchup while running the ball far too often on first-down plays, leading to long third downs and truncated drives that ended with punts. Expect a pass-heavy game plan for the Seahawks in this one, out of necessity in the early going and out of desperation as the game moves on.

How SAN FRANCISCO Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This game has huge AFC playoff implications, as these are currently the #1 and #2 seeds in the conference and have a history of being heated rivals. 
• Josh Allen is 3-1 against Patrick Mahomes during the regular season during their careers, but Mahomes holds the edge in the playoffs 3-0.
• Last season, these teams had a competitive game in which Kadarius Toney was called for offensive offsides on a play that would have otherwise been a likely game-winning touchdown.
• Buffalo has a Week 12 bye and has several players battling injuries, so it will be interesting to see how aggressive or cautious they are with those players in a key AFC matchup.
• Despite both of these teams placing more emphasis on their running games and having better defenses than past seasons, they rank 2nd and 3rd in the league in pass rate over expectation during the last four weeks.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs continued their perfect season through Week 10 thanks to a blocked field goal as time expired. That game against Denver was a low-scoring dogfight, but Kansas City’s offense has quietly been improving in recent weeks. While we have often talked about how the Chiefs are built more around their defense and ball control now than in past seasons, prior to the Broncos game, they scored 26+ points in four straight games. That being said, Kansas City’s focus is winning games, not lighting up the scoreboard. As such, the two opponent types that seem to be a red flag for the Chiefs approaching games in an extra-conservative fashion are non-competitive teams and teams with very good defenses but less-than-aggressive offenses.

Kansas City’s offense has gone through multiple periods this season. Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco were the main pieces of their offense at the beginning of the year, but both have been out for several weeks now. After struggling for a while, the Chiefs picked up DeAndre Hopkins before the trade deadline, and their passing game now flows primarily through him and all-pro TE Travis Kelce. The Chiefs running game has been inefficient recently as veteran Kareem Hunt works as their “workhorse” primarily due to the fact that they trust him to pick up blitzes, not drop passes on dump-offs, and not fumble the football. Due to this inefficiency on the ground, the Chiefs have been targeting Kelce at an obscene rate in recent weeks. He has double-digit targets in four of the past five weeks, with 40 targets and 32 receptions in the last three weeks alone. Hopkins has been with the Chiefs for three weeks. In the first week, he played sparingly. In the second week, he was targeted 9 times and had a huge game with 2 TDs in a win over the Bucs. Last week, he was only targeted 5 times as he faced off with Patrick Surtain and the elite secondary of the Broncos, who play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league and blitz at the second-highest rate. This week, the Chiefs face a Bills defense that blitzes at the second-lowest rate in the NFL and is near the top of the league in zone coverage rate. Based on how the Bills defense is built and what the Chiefs have in offensive personnel, we should expect Kelce and Hopkins to be targeted frequently in short to intermediate areas of the field against the Bill’s zones while Hunt once again touches the ball 20 to 25 times, albeit with modest efficiency. Buffalo will force the Chiefs to march the field methodically, and the Chiefs will have both the personnel and patience to do just that.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Bengals visiting the Chargers for a 47.5 total game in which Los Angeles is favored by a point and a half. This should be a really interesting game. I think people are coming around to the Chargers as more of a passing offense, finally, as they’ve been top-10 in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in their last four games. The Bengals are first in PROE in their last few games and also for the entire season. The Chargers started as an incredibly run-heavy team but they’ve been opening up the playbook more, which adds a lot more potential excitement to this game. Their defense has also been insanely good, allowing only 13.1 points per game (Pittsburgh is next at 16.2). Early in the season, it felt like something of a mirage because they weren’t getting after the quarterback (the surest way to stop drives), but in their last three games they’ve racked up an insane 18 sacks . . . admittedly against the Saints, Browns, and Titans, but still. That’s what you need to do in order to be an elite defense. 

Los Angeles

On the Chargers side, Gus Edwards made his return last week and immediately ate into J.K. Dobbins’ role. Dobbins played 66% of the offensive snaps, lower than any game during Edwards’ four-game absence. He still handled 18 opportunities, right around the normal range for him so there’s no need to panic about Dobbins, but Edwards’ return does take a bit of the ceiling off of his opportunity count. He’s generally going to be in that 17-21 opportunity range, and as a home favorite that looks pretty solid, but there are some warning signs here. First, the Bengals are (slightly) above average against the run, allowing 4.2 yards per carry on the season. Second, despite Edwards missing four games, he has 9 red zone carries to Dobbins’ 17. On a per-game basis, they’re about equal – roughly two per game. This is a small sample, but we’d like to see Dobbins out carrying Edwards near the goal line. Third, while Dobbins’ full-season efficiency numbers look strong, most of that is due to three games (against the Raiders, Panthers, and Browns). In his other six games, he’s been inefficient, averaging 3.8 yards per carry or under. Home favorite running backs with decent passing game roles are always going to look good on paper, and Dobbins is certainly not a bad play by any means, but there are more yellow flags than I’d like to see for a $10k guy who is certainly going to come in at high ownership. I’ll play him but will be underweight. Edwards has no passing game role and will likely only see a handful of carries in a competitive game so you’ll need at least a touchdown for him to be relevant. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Chargers are running out Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston as their full-time wide receivers with Josh Palmer and Jalen Reagor splitting the WR3 role. Of note is that D.J. Chark is finally off of injured reserve and played his first snap of the season last week. And that was it, just 1 snap. McConkey has shown himself to be talented and NFL-ready with a couple of strong games so far. The ceiling is a little dodgy because he’s a short aDOT slot receiver, but at $8,200 we don’t necessarily need 100 yards and a touchdown like we do on main slates. The Bengals pass defense has been suspect all year and McConkey is the surest way to attack it. Johnston is being used more as a deep threat, and after an incredibly disappointing rookie season, this year he has 5 touchdowns in seven games played. He’s the opposite of McConkey in that the floor is questionable but the ceiling is robust. Then we get into some interesting stuff. Palmer hasn’t really shown himself to be a strong NFL wide receiver at this point in his career but the Chargers haven’t given up on him. Jalen Reagor has absolutely shown himself to not be a strong (or even mid-tier) NFL wide receiver. So, does Chark get more run this week? My guess is that Chark is clearly one of the Chargers’ best four wide receivers (and is probably top 3), so I expect his role is going to grow. My guess is that he splits reps with Palmer this week and Reagor fades away. Palmer is, to me, too expensive for a not very talented wide receiver playing roughly half the snaps. You’d need a long touchdown for any real shot at relevance. But, at just $1,200, Chark in a split WR3 role would profile similarly to Palmer, just much, much cheaper, and that would be quite interesting. It’s all speculative of course, and depending on how projection systems approach it, we could see Chark being largely ignored by the field or being heavily owned, which affects my level of interest but assuming ownership doesn’t become outlandish (say, in the 10% range or so), I think it’s a good tourney option. 

At tight end, Will Dissly continues to roll in his all floor, no ceiling role. It’s tough to find a ceiling at 8 yards per catch and his price has crept up to where just a few empty catches aren’t likely to make him a winning tournament play. You’ll need double-digit points, which means something like 6 catches or you’re hoping he finds the end zone. Since he has 1 target all season instead the 10 yard line, it’s certainly possible, but he’s not being heavily utilized when the Chargers are close in. Hayden Hurst recently made his return from injury and has played just 14% and 15% of the snaps in his two games back. Since his snaps didn’t increase last week my guess is that while they might slowly creep up, Dissly has really stolen the TE1 role. He can be viewed as a touchdown-or-bust option (Hurst does have 3 targets inside the 10-yard line despite playing only half the snaps of Dissly on the season, however). Finally, Stone Smartt should play a handful of TE3 snaps but has just 3 targets on the season. 

Cincinnati

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Monday Night Football has Houston visiting Dallas for a game that probably looked pretty good when it was scheduled in the preseason, but then Dak Prescott A) sucked and B) got hurt. So we’re left with a 41.5 total game (down from 49 at open!) with the Texans favored by a touchdown. 

Dallas

In the first game without Dak, we saw Rico Dowdle’s snap share decline to 52% just when it seemed like he had taken control of the backfield, while Ezekiel Elliott usurped Dalvin Cook once again for the RB2 role. Dowdle was almost certainly a victim of game script and if the Cowboys can keep this game close he should have more run, but while he is a capable pass catching back, last week makes me nervous if the Cowboys will use him as such. Combine that with his highest salary of the season and a bad overall offensive game environment and it’s tough to get to him. What I will say is this: we tend to underestimate the likelihood of upsets occurring, especially when it’s a clearly “bad team” that would have to do the upsetting. If Dallas does pull it off, though, Dowdle could be in for a solid role and has ceiling at what I expect to be modest ownership. While Dallas winning clearly isn’t the likeliest outcome, if building a portfolio of lineups in Showdown it’s (almost) always a good idea to invest some in the underdog winning, and Dowdle fits well in those. The RB2 role is either Zeke or Cook. I don’t know who. Maybe Zeke based on last week, but just watch inactive. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, it’s hard to know what to make of Dallas because last week they played both Cooper Rush and Trey Lance at quarterback. Rush had the lead role while Lance came in at the end of the game. It’s possible we might see a bit of Lance, but Rush is expected to start and if he plays reasonably well, he should be the guy. Both are pretty terrible but Rush probably gives the Cowboys the better chance to win. He does have a game of 223 passing yards with 2 TDs back in 2022 (yay). Clearly, he’s a massive downgrade, and it’s awfully hard to justify paying normal prices for the Cowboys pass catchers as all of Ceedee Lamb ($10,800), Jalen Tolbert ($4,600), and Jake Ferguson ($5,800) are pretty close to where we regularly see them. Last week against the Eagles, the Cowboys QBs combined attempted 29 passes with 10 targets to Lamb, 5 each to Tolbert and Ferguson, 3 to Dowdle, 4 to Jalen Brooks, and then 1 each to Hunter Luepke and Luke Schoonmaker. The guys I think we can count on for volume here are Lamb and Ferguson – backup QBs tend to struggle at going through progressions and often lock onto their primary target, and then also tend to use their tight end as a safety valve. Those are the spots I’d look to target most, and I’d hope that after an extra week of first-time reps in practice, Rush can do better than an absolutely paltry 2 yards per pass attempt. None of the Cowboys pass catchers are “good” plays at their price, but they’ll also be pretty low-owned. It’s not a fun spot to invest. I’d view Lamb and Ferg as reasonable floor plays albeit with questionable ceilings, and everyone else on the Cowboys is just a punt option. 

Houston