XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Monday Night Football has Houston visiting Dallas for a game that probably looked pretty good when it was scheduled in the preseason, but then Dak Prescott A) sucked and B) got hurt. So we’re left with a 41.5 total game (down from 49 at open!) with the Texans favored by a touchdown.
Dallas
In the first game without Dak, we saw Rico Dowdle’s snap share decline to 52% just when it seemed like he had taken control of the backfield, while Ezekiel Elliott usurped Dalvin Cook once again for the RB2 role. Dowdle was almost certainly a victim of game script and if the Cowboys can keep this game close he should have more run, but while he is a capable pass catching back, last week makes me nervous if the Cowboys will use him as such. Combine that with his highest salary of the season and a bad overall offensive game environment and it’s tough to get to him. What I will say is this: we tend to underestimate the likelihood of upsets occurring, especially when it’s a clearly “bad team” that would have to do the upsetting. If Dallas does pull it off, though, Dowdle could be in for a solid role and has ceiling at what I expect to be modest ownership. While Dallas winning clearly isn’t the likeliest outcome, if building a portfolio of lineups in Showdown it’s (almost) always a good idea to invest some in the underdog winning, and Dowdle fits well in those. The RB2 role is either Zeke or Cook. I don’t know who. Maybe Zeke based on last week, but just watch inactive.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, it’s hard to know what to make of Dallas because last week they played both Cooper Rush and Trey Lance at quarterback. Rush had the lead role while Lance came in at the end of the game. It’s possible we might see a bit of Lance, but Rush is expected to start and if he plays reasonably well, he should be the guy. Both are pretty terrible but Rush probably gives the Cowboys the better chance to win. He does have a game of 223 passing yards with 2 TDs back in 2022 (yay). Clearly, he’s a massive downgrade, and it’s awfully hard to justify paying normal prices for the Cowboys pass catchers as all of Ceedee Lamb ($10,800), Jalen Tolbert ($4,600), and Jake Ferguson ($5,800) are pretty close to where we regularly see them. Last week against the Eagles, the Cowboys QBs combined attempted 29 passes with 10 targets to Lamb, 5 each to Tolbert and Ferguson, 3 to Dowdle, 4 to Jalen Brooks, and then 1 each to Hunter Luepke and Luke Schoonmaker. The guys I think we can count on for volume here are Lamb and Ferguson – backup QBs tend to struggle at going through progressions and often lock onto their primary target, and then also tend to use their tight end as a safety valve. Those are the spots I’d look to target most, and I’d hope that after an extra week of first-time reps in practice, Rush can do better than an absolutely paltry 2 yards per pass attempt. None of the Cowboys pass catchers are “good” plays at their price, but they’ll also be pretty low-owned. It’s not a fun spot to invest. I’d view Lamb and Ferg as reasonable floor plays albeit with questionable ceilings, and everyone else on the Cowboys is just a punt option.
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