Cards (

25.25) at
Rams (

28.75)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Rams rank first in the NFL through three games in situation-neutral pace of play while the Cardinals pace of play has been largely affected by game script (as in, it should still rank towards the top of the league come season’s end)
• Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in situation-neutral pass rate, but both offenses have attacked the deep areas of the field through the air at great frequency
• No quarterback has a greater completion rate than Kyler Murray to start the year; Matthew Stafford is tied with some dude named Patrick Mahomes
• Kyler Murray ranks third amongst qualifying quarterbacks in number of pass attempts greater than 20 yards downfield while Matthew Stafford ranks sixth
• These quarterbacks rank second and third (behind only Russell Wilson) in yards per pass attempt

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

As we’ve explored in this space previously, the Cardinals continued their horizontally-spread offense into 2021 but have layered in more effective downfield routes through Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore. The overall function of this offense aims to wear down an opposing defense through moderate rush rates, pace, and long, sustained drives. Of note, the Cardinals have yet to score fewer than 31 points in any of their three games thus far, a staggering efficiency rate. This Rams defense will be their first true test of the season after playing the Titans, the Vikings, and the Jaguars.

Running backs Chase Edmonds and James Conner continue to operate in a loose committee, at a snap split of roughly 65/35. As we finally saw in Week 3, James Conner is the likeliest for goal line work (scored two touchdowns on 11 carries), but his role remains fairly low upside, particularly considering Kyler Murray’s red zone rushing prowess. Chase Edmonds has an established role in the pass game, having seen 17 targets through three games. The additional floor due to receiving work is tangible, but the upside remains capped due to the lack of goal line work. The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.2 net-adjusted line yards metric.

The most interesting matchup from a real world football perspective from this game is Jalen Ramsey’s likely shadow matchup with DeAndre Hopkins. Ramsey has allowed a meager four completions on 11 targets for 38 yards and no touchdowns in primary coverage. The effect of Ramsey can be understood by looking at the amount of targets opposing corner Darious Williams has seen in primary coverage this season: a whopping 26 targets through three games, which is an almost unheard of rate, if extrapolated over an entire season. Being targeted almost nine times a game in your primary coverage simply doesn’t happen in today’s NFL, yet here we are with Williams. With Ramsey on Nuk, expect A.J. Green to see a good deal of Williams, while Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore see the most David Long and safety coverage out of the slot.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams offense has been fairly balanced to start the season with a 56% situation-neutral pass rate. That rate spiked to 62% in their Week 3 contest in which starting running back Darrell Henderson missed so keep a close eye on his status leading up to this matchup (he is currently tentatively expected to play this week). Even if he does return, I expect the game environment to be the heaviest driving factor on this offense’s pass rates throughout the season. The biggest surprise so far has been the relative underperformance of this defense as they have allowed an average of 20.67 points per game against through three weeks (still ranks top 10 in the NFL, but a far cry from their dominant 2020 season). For example, the Rams have given up over 374 yards of total offense per game, with over 281 per game allowed through the air.

As mentioned earlier, Darrell Henderson is tentatively expected to return to action after missing one game with a rib injury. We should expect him to land around his pre-injury opportunity totals of 17 and 18, should he be fully healthy. Head coach Sean McVay did indicate that Sony Michel will still have a role in the offense so there remains a possibility Henderson’s touches are scaled back slightly in his first game back. The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.5 net-adjusted line yards metric but there shouldn’t be an opportunity for one running back to largely separate himself from the other here, leaving each highly dependent on touchdowns for fantasy utility.

The combination of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods has seen a whopping 55.9% of the total available targets from the Rams offense over the first three weeks of the season. That is absolutely massive. For comparison sake, the duo of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson has seen a 48.7% combined target rate and the duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Locket has seen a combined 56.3% target rate. Kupp and Woods are in elite company. Tyler Higbee saw his first game of under 100% snap rate in Week 3, playing 75% of the offensive snaps and ceding work to Johnny Mundt, but his 12.9% target market share and laughable 2.9 aDOT leave a lot to be desired, even in an expected back-and-forth affair. Behind those three, expect Van Jefferson and offseason addition DeSean Jackson to filter through as rotational pieces, each seeing a few downfield looks per game. The Rams as a team are right on par with the Bills when considering their typical target distribution, with only 12% of the targets through three weeks going to running backs and only 13% going to tight ends.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Aside from the robust game overview section above, both these teams rank in the top half of the league in drive success rate on offense, top eight in the league in adjusted sack rate allowed, and top 12 in the league in adjusted line yards. What does all that mean? It means both offenses should be relatively efficient with their opportunities, play at pace, attack the deep parts of the field through the air, and have a multitude of offensive playmakers capable of breaking off chunk gains. The likeliest scenario has this game developing into a shootout-style game flow sooner rather than later as each team is more than capable of putting up points in a hurry. The added benefit here is the blistering combined pace of these two teams, which should leave this game competing for most offensive plays run from scrimmage at the end of the week. Fantasy goodness all around!

DFS+ Interpretation ::