Kickoff Sunday, Oct 3rd 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
19.25) at
Bears (
22.25)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • David Montgomery and Allen Robinson are cheap relative to their roles
  • This is expected to be the worst game environment on the slate
  • Monitor who is expected to start at QB for the Bears
  • T.J. Hockenson is likely to be schemed looks after vanishing last week

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

There are no words for the Bears Week 3 performance. They got absolutely lambasted, eviscerated, embarrassed, shamed, wrecked, destroyed, and annihilated. Okay, so there are a few words for what happened to the Bears last week. After getting pasted Week 1 by a Rams team that looks scary good, and squeaking by the not-expected-to-contend Bengals, Matt Nagy’s Bears forgot they get paid to play football in Week 3. Nagy is in a tough position. He’s largely been successful as the Bears’ head coach, posting a 29-21 career record and leading the Bears to the playoffs in two out of three seasons. It’s easy to forget he won coach of the year in 2018. It’s easy to forget because he’s never won a playoff game (0-2) and made the playoffs last year with an 8-8 record. The NFL is a what have you done for me lately league, and Nagy hasn’t done much lately. Now he is tasked with deciding who to start at QB between Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, and Nick Foles (yes, he’s still around).

Nagy hasn’t always been the sharpest coach in the NFL, but he’s also not a total clown, and he can figure out that no matter which QB starts this week, his best chance is to win on the ground. Expect the Bears to try and pound David Montgomery for as long as they can to overpower the Lions in the trenches. If the run game fails, the manner and style in which the Bears take to the air will depend on who’s throwing the passes, but this is a situation Nagy will try to avoid. Expect a conservative game plan and a “hide the QB” approach for as long as the scoreboard allows.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

It’s hard not to root for the Lions. They have one of the least talented rosters in recent memory and started the year against three teams expected to contend (49ers/Packers/Ravens). All three of those games should have been blowouts. Instead, the Lions roared back against the 49ers, shell shocked the Packers, and pushed Ravens to an NFL record 66-yard FG off the bar as time expired. If the Ravens have the second-best kicker in the league, the Lions are 1-2.

Dan Campbell gave us a glimpse of how he’d like to attack in a game where his team isn’t trying to catch up. The Lions ran an almost perfectly balanced attack, throwing 31 times versus 27 team carries; this despite being down 13 midway through the third quarter, which shows the Lions are willing to stay balanced even when losing if the game is close. The Lions are still trying to figure out their identity as a team. So far they have been willing to throw over 50 passes when trailing early, and willing to stay balanced throughout the game when the score is within reach. Since the Bears are unlikely to push the Lions, expect them to remain balanced throughout this game, skewing slightly towards the pass. The relative weakness of the Bears defense on paper is their cornerbacks but last week’s game showed their front seven is vulnerable to a good run game, as the Brows lit them up for 215 yards on the ground. The Lions running game isn’t nearly as strong as the Browns, but if the game remains tight expect the Lions to stick with it until the end.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game opened with a minuscule 42.5 total, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see it get bet down. This is a matchup between two bad teams and points will be at a premium for both sides in what is likely to be an uneventful affair. The Bears are a modest three point home favorites, indicating this is an even game on a neutral field. The most likely way this plays out is a mistake filled game (especially if Justin Fields is at the helm for the Bears), with the Bears running game being able to do just enough to secure a sloppy victory.

There are possible tributaries, but none of them deserve their own writeup. One scenario is the scrappy Lions, that just brawled against three contending teams, come into Chicago and lay one on the Bears who are the weakest competition they have faced this season. It’s hard to say the Lions and “lay one on” in the same sentence, but it is possible in this spot.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • My beloved Lions have covered the spread in 2 out of 3 games during yet another rebuilding year & the Over has hit in 2 out of 3
  • Lions were down 38-10 with less than 8 minutes remaining in the 3rd Q vs. SF and finished losing 41-33 (SF -9.5, O/U 51); at Green Bay, they led at halftime 17-14 then failed to score again to fall 17-35 (GB -11.5, O/U 50); they led by 1 with 1:04 remaining versus the Ravens only to lose on an NFL record 66 yard, crossbar-hitting field goal 19-17 (BAL -7.5, O/U 51)
  • The dastardly Bears have covered the spread in 1 out of 3 games during their QB carousel & the Over has hit in 1 out of 3
  • Bears never led at the Rams in game which Dalton dominated snaps but Fields scored 1 of 2 TDs for the team, resulting in a loss of 14-34 (LAR -9.5, O/U 47); the Bears controlled throughout the game vs. the Bengals even though Dalton was hurt and Fields took over at half time, winning 20-17 (CHI -2.0, O/U 45); in the first career start for Fields, at Cleveland, the Bears scored the first points with a field goal but only managed one more field goal before falling 6-26 (CLE -7.5; O/U 45)
  • The Vegas total opened at 44 and has been bet down to 42.5, lowest of Week 4

Jared Goff

  • Goff finished 2020 as the 23rd ranked QB per PFF grade
  • He also finished 23rd in DK ppg during the ‘20 regular season (18.3)
  • Through three games, he’s at 25th in PFF and 14th in DK ppg (20.8)
  • Goff has faced the Bears once per year for the past three seasons, twice in LA and once in Chicago
  • His DK totals, from past to present: 3.7 (@ CHI) // 6.22 // 16.86
  • Per the Trends Tool at Fantasy Labs, his average expected DK totals based on salary were 18.57. His average actual points were 8.93, with a +/- of -9.64
  • In Week 1, Goff finished as QB 6 with 32.9 DK pts
  • Since then, he’s scored 20.4 & 9.1 DK pts
  • Last season, Chicago allowed 18.3 DK ppg to the QB position (10th fewest)
  • In 2021: 19.2 (12th fewest)

DET Passing Attack

  • The remade Lions WR room team snap percentages: Kalif Raymond (71.7%) // Quintez Cephus (60.4%) // Amon-Ra St. Brown (56.6%) // Trinity Benson (45.8%)
  • Target share: Kalif (12.9%) // Cephus (12.1%) // Amon & Trinity (8.1%)
  • Kalif had 10 targets in Week 3, all other WRs had just one
  • The Lions have had zero noteworthy DK scores out of the WR room in 2021
  • The Bears are allowing 42.7 DK ppg to WRs (22nd)
  • Notable WR DK scores against: Van Jefferson (16) // Cooper Kupp (26.8) // Tee Higgins (17)
  • TJ Hockenson had his lowest target count since 2019 in Week 3’s loss to the Ravens
  • He caught 2/2 for 10 yards and just 3 DK pts
  • He is still 4th in DK ppg at the position (16.4) and 3rd in targets per game (7)
  • Hockenson’s DK log against Chicago, from 2019-present: 7.7 // 7.8 // 16.6 // 15.4
  • Last year, the Bears were the second worst against the TE, allowing 15.8 DK ppg
  • This year, they currently rank 8th with 8

DET RBs

  • The Lions have targeted the RB position at the highest rate through three weeks (32.8% of team targets)
  • Only one other team even cracks 28% (Atlanta with 31%)
  • D’Andre Swift averages 7.7 targets per game, good for 18.5% of team targets
  • 7.7 targets per game is good for 2nd among RBs, 18.5% of team targets is good for 3rd
  • Chicago allowed the 10th fewest DK ppg to RBs last season (21), and has so far allowed the 11th fewest this year (22.2)
  • Notable DK scores allowed at Soldier Field since 2020: 25.3 (Alvin Kamara) // 23.3 (Ezekiel Elliott) // 35 (Latavius Murray)
  • Swift has 55.9% of RB touches through three weeks, Jamaal Williams has 44.1%
  • Jamaal has a 40.1% snap share, 11.3% target share, for an average of 13.7 touches per game

CHI Passing Attack

  • In Week 1,Justin Fields saw 5 total snaps
  • He went 2 for 2 in passing for 10 yards & rushed in a score, good for 6.7 DK points
  • In Week 2, Fields saw 42 snaps after Andy Dalton left with an injury
  • Fields passed for 6/13 for 60 yds & 1 INT and ran for 6-31 & 1 FUM, good for 4.5 DK pts
  • In Week 3, Fields passed for 6/20 for 68 yds
  • He lost 67 yds on nine sacks
  • Fields only had three rushing attempts for 12 yards
  • He scored 3.9 DK pts
  • As of Tuesday evening, Matt Nagy has not announced the starting QB for Week 4 between Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, or Nick Foles
  • Passing attack snap share for Chicago: Darnell Mooney (95.5%) // Allen Robinson (86.6%) // Cole Kmet (78.8%) // Damiere Byrd (54.2%) // Marquise Goodwin (37.4%) // Jimmy Graham (24%)
  • Target share: Robinson (25%) // Mooney (22.6%) // Kmet (14.3%) // Goodwin (9.5%) // Byrd & Graham (3.6%)
  • Robinson had 10 targets in Week 1
  • No other player has hit double digits in a game
  • Robinson notable scores against DET: 22.6 // 34.3
  • Robinson notable scores under Nagy in 37 games with Vegas totals < 45: 34.3 // 33.3 // 28.7 // 24.7 // 28.1 // 22.6 // 21.8 // 22.5 // 26.1 // 20.7 // 27.4
  • Mooney has never cracked 18 DK pts in a game with a Vegas total < 45
  • In December last season, Kmet managed 14.7 DK pts @ DET. It was his only worthwhile score in a low Vegas total game
  • The Lions are 13th in DK ppg to the WR position with only 36.9
  • They’re 24th to TEs with 15.5

CHI RBs

  • Last year, David Montgomery led the league in team snap share among RBs (70.87%)
  • He was 7th in average touches per game (20.1)
  • So far in 2021, his snap share is at 72.6% and touches 17.3
  • In 2020, Montgomery averaged 18.3 DK ppg
  • In 2021, he’s averaged 13.4
  • Montgomery’s notable DK scores in 25 low total games: 27.7 // 22.6 // 20.3 // 21.7 // 28.3 // 27.1 (vs. DET)
  • Damien Williams has played on 29.1% snaps and averaged 4.7 touches per game
  • The Lions are 24th in ppg to RBs (27.9)