Kickoff Sunday, Oct 3rd 4:05pm Eastern

Hawks (
24.75) at

49ers (
27.25)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Seahawks Run D
8th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
5th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
27th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
5th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
49ers Run D
2nd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
16th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
10th DVOA/23rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Injuries to San Francisco’s secondary could force increased zone coverage rates, which spells trouble against the downfield-attacking pass offense of the Seahawks
  • Keep an eye on George Kittle’s status on the Friday injury report; he has missed both practices so far this week with a calf injury
  • When you consider San Francisco’s sixth-ranked drive success rate and 12th-ranked time of possession per drive, paired with Seattle’s 31st-ranked time of possession per drive, we’re unlikely to see additional plays run from scrimmage for the Seahawks here (have either 53 or 54 offensive plays run from scrimmage in every game this year)

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks started the year in a promising fashion (as far as fantasy football goes), playing with pace on offense to pair with their high rush rates and downfield attack through the air. Over the subsequent two games, that game plan has all but dried up as the defense has struggled. Damn shame. They have now settled into the 13th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and moderate 60% situation-neutral pass rate range, but I expect those numbers to continue to fall as Pete Carroll continues to place the blame on the wrong side of the football (his previous reasoning for not running a pace-up offense when his defense is struggling is that it places too much strain on the defense, which is more or less accurate but for the wrong reasons – as in, the reason the Seahawks rank towards the bottom of the league in time of possession is mostly due to their downfield-attacking nature through the pass game, which leads to binary outcomes of incompletions and stalled drives or quick scores). The glaring stats that highlight this truth are their 15th-ranked points per drive value of 2.42 paired with a 31st-ranked time of possession per drive of 2:17.

With Rashaad Penny appearing likely to miss a third consecutive contest, look for Travis Homer to be the primary change of pace running back behind Chris Carson. The lack of receiving work makes Carson a yardage and touchdown back, one highly reliant on touchdown equity to return fantasy goodness. Not only that, but Carson is one of the most game flow reliant running backs in the league from an expected volume perspective, making his floor dangerously low outside of very specific game flows. The matchup on the ground yields a slightly above average 4.45 net-adjusted line yards metric.

The low overall expected time of possession from the Seahawks (considering the opponent) and moderate pass rates leads to a standard range of outcomes of 28-34 pass attempts for the Seahawks in this game. The combined 56.3% team target market share between DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett means these two wide receivers are likely to combine for 16 to 19 targets in a standard game, with not much dictating who would be likeliest to see a spike in volume over the other in a standard week. The Niners are thin at the cornerback position but have allowed only 36.9 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Behind Metcalf and Lockett, rookie wide receiver Dee Eskridge is due back for this contest after being held out of the previous two with a concussion, and should step into the WR3 role over Freddie Swain. Tight end Gerald Everett continues to dominate the snaps over Will Dissly, but the Seahawks have targeted the tight end position on only 14% of the pass attempts thus far, leaving each of little utility in a standard game. 

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

San Francisco holds the eighth highest situation-neutral rush rate and 22nd-ranked pace of play to start the season, which, when paired with a sixth-ranked drive success rate on offense, has led to the 12th best time of possession per drive and eighth most points per drive. The overall goal of this offense is to eat up clock through methodical, sustained drives and control the tempo and flow of the game. The Niners struggles on defense while in zone coverages have carried over into 2021. With the injuries they currently have in the secondary, it is likely we see heavy zone rates in Week 4. 

Rookie running back Trey Sermon is clearly not viewed as a viable heavy snap rate running back by the coaching staff in San Francisco after the team handed fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell 19 running back opportunities in each healthy game and Sermon only 13 in a cake matchup for the run (Packers). Both running backs saw around 60% of the offensive snaps in their respective “featured” games, yet Sermon yielded nine opportunities to fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Mitchell has gotten in two limited practices with a non-contact jersey to start the week and is likely going to have to practice in full to prove his shoulder injury is healthy enough to play. The matchup on the ground yields a surprisingly low 4.195 net-adjusted line yards metric.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has averaged 31.67 pass attempts per game over the first three weeks of the season and is likeliest to land in the 28-34 range here. Brandon Aiyuk returned to the good graces of his coaching staff in Week 3, joining Deebo Samuel as borderline every snap wide receivers. Mohamed Sanu surprisingly usurped Trent Sherfield as the WR3 but it remains to be seen if that was game plan specific or a trend moving forward. The 70.69% completion rate and moderate 10.4 yards per completion allowed by the Seahawks defense lines up well with how we expect San Francisco to attack through the air. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

We’re likely to see the Niners dictate the overall pace here, with them also holding the best opportunity to see a bump to expected offensive plays run from scrimmage. They hold one of the top drive success rate deltas of any team this weekend (San Francisco ranks sixth on offense while Seattle ranks 30th on defense) and should find success attacking the short to intermediate areas of the field. The game day status of George Kittle has a large influence to the way this game is likeliest to play out, but I tentatively expect him to go on Sunday. With below average offensive plays run from scrimmage, the Seahawks will be heavily reliant on efficiency and touchdowns in order to provide GPP-worthy scores. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • As of Tuesday evening, this matchup has the third highest point total
  • The line opened -3.5 SF but has since moved to -2.5 
  • These two have met six times since Shanahan took over w/ SEA going 4-2
  • Two of these games have went to OT
  • SEA pts in these six: 26 // 37 // 21 // 27 // 23 // 43 // Avg-29.5
  • SF pts in these six: 23 // 27 // 26 // 24 // 26 // 16 // Avg-23.67
  • SF w/ Shanahan, has yet to break 30 pts vs SEA
  • Carroll has done so two times, once cracking forty pts

Russell Wilson:

  • Wilson vs SF since Shanahan regime took over: 18.14 // 28.74 // 24.22 // 17.58 // 18.98 // 24.8
  • Pass attempts through three games: 2021-86 // 2020-103
  • Rush yards through three games: 2021-32 // 2020-90
  • Wilson has supported 100+ yd receiver in three straight to start the season 
  • SF has given up the sixth most DK pts to QBs (24.6)

Chris Carson:

  • Carson makes up 65% of SEA rush share (Wilson makes up 17%)
  • No other SEA player, other than Wilson, has more than three carries 
  • SF is giving up 4.7 yds/c (27th) // 105 yds/g (16th)
  • Carson’s avg: 4.9 yds/c (10th among RBs) // 67.4 yds/g
  • SF D ranks 7th in rush DVOA despite giving up 4.7 yds/c

SEA WRs:

  • Metcalf targets: 9 // 11 // 5 
  • Lockett targets: 4 // 11 // 5 
  • ADOT: Metcalf-12.72 // Lockett-14.15
  • These two make up 56% of of SEA tgt share
  • Next closest is Freddie Swain w/ 8 tgts, 10% share
  • Metcalf has four RZ tgts // Lockett has two
  • SF Injured CBs: Starter Jason Verrett (IR) // New starter Josh Norman-questionable (injured Week 3) // Slot CB K’Waun Williams-likely out (injured Week 3)
  • Emmanuel Mosley returned & started Week 3 after missing the first two weeks

SEA TEs

  • Target Counts: Gerald Everett-2 // 2 // 5 Will Dissly-1 // 0 // 3
  • Snap Counts // Slot or Wide: Everett-124 // 53 Dissly: 84 // 21
  • Through three games, Everett is the only SEA TE with a RZ tgt

Jimmy Garoppolo:

  • SEA has given up the seventh most pass yds/g (285.3)
  • Garoppolo pass yds: 257 // 189 // 314
  • His career completion %: 67.4 
  • This year: 67.4%
  • Garoppolo missed both matchups in 2020 & 2018  due to injury
  • He’s only played SEA twice, both in 2019 (2.76 DK pts // 13.02)
  • SEA has given up the sixth most DK pts to QBs (22.2)

SF RBs:

  • Eiljah Mitchell was out last week and questionable this week
  • JaMycal Hasty was put on IR last week
  • Trey Sermon was the only RB to take a snap last week
  • FB Kyle Juszczyk took five carries and had four tgts
  • Sermon had 10 carries (48%)
  • Shanahan likes using other skill players to rush
  • Non rb rush attps through three games: QB Garoppolo-15 // FB Juszczyk-6 // WR Deebo Samuel-4 // QB Trey Lance-4 // WR Brandon Aiyuk-1 // TE George Kittle-1
  • SEA ranks last in DK pts to RBs (39.0/g)

SF WRs

  • Deebo Samuel makes up 33% of SFs target share 
  • Samuel tgts: 10 // 8 // 12 
  • His 334 rec yds is second in the league behind Cooper Kupp (367) 
  • Yds: 52 // 93 // 189
  • Other SF WR tgt counts: Mohamed Sanu-8 // Brandon Aiyuk-8 // Trent Sherfield-6
  • Aiyuk & Sherfield were splitting snaps until last week
  • Aiyuk Snaps: Week 3- 60/70 // Week 2-38/70 // Week 1-26/55
  • Sherfield: 2 // 24 // 27
  • Sanu leads the team w/ three RZ tgts

George Kittle:

  • Kittle is second on the team in tgts w/ 18 (20%)
  • Target counts: 9 // 4 // 5 // Avg-6.0
  • Last season’s avg: 7.88 (8 games)
  • Kittle’s price on DK started at $6.3k & is down to $5.9k which is still second highest among TEs this week
  • SEA has given up the 14th most DK pts to TEs this season (12.6 pts/g)