Chiefs (

30.5) at
Eagles (

23.5)

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Another game where public perception might not line up with potential game environments
• Jalen Hurts, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, and Tyreek Hill all provide solid range of potential outcomes here
• Eagles pass-catchers and secondary Chiefs pieces can be utilized in game stacks and correlated pairings

How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

Interestingly enough, Kansas City falls towards the bottom of the league in situation-neutral pass rate on early downs with the score within seven points (49%) over the first three weeks of the season. That was highly shocking to me when I first dug into this game, so what better way to relay that shock than to lead with it here. But the surface numbers don’t tell the whole story here. Their overall situation-neutral pass rate is a more “Chiefs comfort zone” 62%. The Chiefs hold the league’s top drive success rate on offense while running the football on 54% of their first down plays. Second down is where they open up the offense this season, passing on 80% of their second and four or greater plays, which is an absurdly high rate. Their success rate on second down pass plays is a massive 72%, a stark contrast from the 60% on rushes. All of this is an interesting study into their play calling tendencies based on down and distance to go. Basically, the Chiefs are highly balanced on first down and extremely pass-heavy on second through fourth down, all of which combines to form the most efficient offense in the league. On the defensive side of the ball, the heavy Cover-2 prevent zone defense that is designed to limit splash plays has largely struggled to do just that thus far, leading to a gross 31.67 points allowed per game.

Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has played between 62% and 72% of the offensive snaps in every game so far, leading to running back opportunity totals of 17, 13, and 19. He was all but removed from the game plan after losing a fumble in Week 2 against Baltimore, but was afforded a little more leeway after losing a fumble again in Week 3 against the Chargers, both games they eventually ended up losing. I would all but assume CEH’s leash is becoming increasingly short with respect to ball security. The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.49 net-adjusted line yards metric, but we have to question the prospective effectiveness of CEH toting the ball primarily on first down against stacked boxes. Darrel Williams is next in line for opportunities out of the Kansas City backfield, having played 22%, 27%, and 34% of the offensive snaps in the first three games. 

Through the air is clearly where the money is made with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. The Eagles have somehow allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over the first three weeks of the season, instead yielding the eighth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and a moderate 4.5 yards per carry to opposing backfields. This is one of those spots where matchup pretty much doesn’t matter, but the numbers and film indicate production is likeliest to flow through Travis Kelce. Again, Tyreek Hill can win in any matchup as his skillset is simply so unique, but the volume is likeliest to find its way inside here. Behind the Alpha and Omega, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson have seen between 59% and 78% of the offensive snaps this season, with Byron Pringle a distant fourth at 17% to 38%. 

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Head coach Nick Sirianni seems a little over his head currently in his first taste of head coaching duties. I say that not to throw an unwarranted dig his way, but to highlight the lack of preparation from a game planning perspective he has shown through three weeks. There is simply no other way to rationalize some of the decision-making that has gone on with respect to play calling tendencies over the previous two weeks in games against the 49ers and Cowboys. Both opponents were extremely thin in the secondary at the time the Eagles played them, with only one true talent remaining, yet rookie wide receiver Devonta Smith was routinely schemed targets into press-man coverage. With the amount of speed this team currently has across the board at the wide receiver position, and the amount of veteran savvy they have at the tight end position, and the play making ability they have at the running back position with the ball in their hands in space, there is simply no reason to force designed plays to a rookie in press coverage. With that vent out of the way, this team has the offensive pieces to be effective without a coach trying to outcoach himself. Top-level metrics show a team with moderate situation-neutral rush-pass rates, fast pace of play, a mobile quarterback capable of both designed runs and scrambles, and the personnel to be able to mix up groupings. The reality is this team has played from only three different personnel groupings: 64% 11-personnel, 25% 12-personnel, and 11% 13-personnel.

The ground game has largely remained on the launch pad this season outside of quarterback Jalen Hurts who has 26 total rush attempts on the season, or just under nine per game. Running backs Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell have split snaps and opportunities at a roughly 65/35 clip and the matchup on the ground yields a solid 4.405 net-adjusted line yards metric. That said, the Eagles rank 22^nd in adjusted line yards yet 6^th in running back yards per carry. The primary red zone rusher also remains Jalen Hurts, denting the expected range of outcomes of both Sanders and Gainwell.

Devonta Smith and Jalen Reagor are close to every snap receivers, with slot man Quez Watkins stepping in for 50-65% of the offensive snaps, package-specific slot man Greg Ward stepping in for 20-35% of the offensive snaps, and Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz splitting snaps at the tight end position. The Chiefs have shown some weakness through defending the pass this season, so this is should no longer be considered a matchup where upside is capped until we are proven otherwise. Nothing in the numbers or film points to any one pass-catcher being a better bet than any other here.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The only thing we know with a good deal of certainty is that the Chiefs are likely to put up points. How this game ultimately plays out is almost entirely reliant on what the Eagles are able to muster on the offensive side of the ball. This leaves us with another wide range of potential outcomes as far as game environment goes. What I can tell you with a high degree of certainty is the field is unlikely to view this spot through that lens, instead thinking the Chiefs run the Eagles off the field more than the percentage chance of that actually happening. This could leave us with a nice potential leverage spot through the utilization of correlated pairings and game stacks. I can’t stress enough the fact that there are still teams searching for their identities. Philadelphia is one of those teams. For example, if these teams played 100 times under these exact conditions, how many of them would Hurts keep the Eagles in the game late with his legs alone? 20? How many more would one of the Eagles receivers break a couple long receptions and find their way into the end zone? 15? How many games would the Eagles score first in? 35? Think through these potential outcomes as part of the likeliest scenario puzzle! So, if the Chiefs run the Eagles off the field 50-60% of the time, but the field is only building around the other potential outcomes at a 5-7% clip, did we just generate leverage without making suboptimal plays? You betcha!

DFS+ Interpretation ::