Kickoff Sunday, Oct 3rd 4:25pm Eastern

Ravens (
21.5) at

Broncos (
22.5)

Over/Under 44.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
14th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
17th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
15th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
9th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
8th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
32nd DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
6th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
1st DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • This game will likely be bypassed by most DFS players due to the reputations of both teams as run-heavy and defensive-minded
  • Ingredients are here for this game to exceed expectations in certain game scenarios
  • Denver is 3-0 but is now facing by far their toughest opponent, as their first three opponents are a combined 0-9 while Baltimore is 2-1 with their only loss coming in overtime
  • Lamar Jackson presents a unique challenge for every defense he faces and will have an entirely different dynamic than the lower-tier QBs the Broncos have faced so far

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Baltimore is an elite organization that has had a solid start to the year but is on very uneven ground right now. Lamar Jackson is missing practices this week with a back injury and his absence would leave them in a world of hurt. After blowing their season opener to the Raiders in overtime, the Ravens won back-to-back thrillers against the Chiefs and Lions. This team could easily be 3-0 or 0-3 right now. Based on their overall level of performance, 2-1 seems pretty fair. Baltimore now travels to Denver and will play in their high altitude environment as they attempt to take control of the AFC North. 

Denver currently boasts the fifth-ranked defense in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, ranking in the top-10 in both run and pass metrics. However, the teams they have faced so far — the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets — are a combined 0-9 and ranked 14th, 29th, and 30th in offensive DVOA through three weeks. Baltimore’s dynamic rushing offense, led by Lamar Jackson, presents an entirely new challenge for Denver and will force them to approach things differently than they have to date. Denver has an extremely talented secondary but will be stressed by the extra attention they must give to the running game because they have to account for an extra player in Lamar Jackson. Through three weeks, Jackson leads the NFL in yards per completion and yards per carry. What that means is that every snap that the Ravens put the ball in Jackson’s hands, they are putting the defense in an extremely difficult situation. Through three games, over 60% of the Ravens offensive plays have been passes or Lamar Jackson runs.

The likely plan of attack for Baltimore will be an aggressive mindset defensively and a heavy dose of Lamar Jackson offensively. The Broncos boast the #1-graded pass coverage unit by PFF and have personnel that can handle man-to-man matchups as well as a coaching staff capable of putting together a complex scheme, making it unlikely that Baltimore attacks heavily with a downfield passing game. Lamar Jackson currently leads the league in average intended air yards, but that is likely a result of matchups (Lions and Raiders) and situations (trying to come back against the Chiefs). It is hard to see the Ravens forcing the issue early in this game with Jackson nursing a back injury and no clear matchup advantages in the passing game. A heavy dose of misdirection and run-pass option plays early on will likely be used to get the Broncos off balance and throw them out of the defensive rhythm they have fallen into through the first three weeks.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Denver has a plethora of solid offensive options, which keeps any of those options from emerging as a true “alpha” option or providing value in terms of certainty plus ceiling. Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant are all high level talents but are difficult to project from a fantasy standpoint based on the “spread the wealth” approach of Teddy Bridgewater and lack of commitment to a specific player from the coaching staff. K.J. Hamler was lost for the season to an ACL injury, which should slightly narrow the target distribution but will also shrink the field as he was the one true “field stretcher” with elite top end speed to stress a defense. The traditionally stout Baltimore defense is currently the 20th ranked unit by Football Outsiders DVOA metrics and PFF’s 23rd graded unit through three weeks. This ranking is significantly affected by the injuries that Baltimore is dealing with on the defensive side of the ball, but those issues are not going away anytime soon.

Baltimore’s defense is ranked fourth in adjusted line yards, while Denver’s offensive line is ranked 25th in the same metric. It is reasonable to believe that the Broncos will struggle to move the ball via the ground. Teddy Bridgewater has yet to turn the ball over this year and is unlikely to turn into a turnover machine against a Ravens defense that has only forced three turnovers through three games. With the strength of the Broncos being their defense and playing this game at home, it is likely that the Broncos will focus on ball control and staying in the game early daring the Ravens to become more aggressive and open themselves up to mistakes that let the Broncos take control.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Lamar Jackson and Teddy Bridgewater rank first and fourth, respectively, in average intended air yards. This nugget of information is the one thing that could allow this game to turn from a slugfest into a bit of a track meet. Both teams have some playmakers who, when given the opportunity, can turn it up a notch and make plays against anyone. With the Ravens likely taking a run-heavy approach (as they usually do) and the Broncos being short-handed in their receiving corps and unlikely to have consistent success in the running game, it is likely that this game turns into an old fashioned fist fight that will be won in the trenches and with the turnover battle. Neither offense has matchups or advantages that would give them a high likelihood of early offensive success and both teams are also built to take care of the ball and focus on not beating themselves. This is a recipe for an intriguing football game from a real life perspective, but one that is unlikely to provide fantasy fireworks.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Denver is 3-0. Their 26 points against are the lowest in the league
  • All three of their opponents are winless
  • Denver’s graded 3rd overall by PFF, 5th in offense, 4th in defense, 32nd in special teams
  • Baltimore’s graded 12th overall by PFF, 8th in offense, 23rd in defense, 16th in special teams
  • The 44 Vegas total is the 4th lowest of Week 4

Lamar Jackson

  • During his 2019 MVP season, Lamar averaged 29.85 DK pts
  • Regression hit in 2020, where he averaged 22.91
  • In three games this season, he’s averaged 25.85
  • Lamar’s GPP winning scores in 17 games with Vegas totals < 45: 36.56 // 28.62 // 33.42 // 37.08
  • Against three winless teams, Denver has allowed the fewest DK ppg to QBs (11.9)
  • Last season, they allowed 21.1 (22nd)

BAL Passing Attack

  • Baltimore has utilized 22 personnel (2 RBs & 2 TEs) at the highest rate in the league this season (22%)
  • They’ve used 21 personnel (2 RBs & 1 TE) at the second highest rate (23%)
  • They led the league in 22 personnel last season, too
  • Last season, their rate of 11 personnel was 47%
  • This year, in three games without rookie WR Rashod Bateman, they’ve used 11 personnel just 36%
  • Bateman was activated from IR earlier this week and may make his debut
  • Team snap shares: Sammy Watkins (85.1%) // Mark Andrews (78.2%) // Marquise Brown (69.8%) // Devin Duvernay (54%)
  • Target shares: Marquise (26.4%) // Sammy (25.3%) // Andrews (19.5%)
  • Marquise’s target share ranks 8th in the league
  • He dropped multiple deep targets/TDs in Week 3
  • Marquise has one GPP winning score out of 12 games with totals < 45: 33.7 (in his rookie debut)
  • Among all 34 games in his career: 33.7 // 21.2 // 22.6 // 21.1 // 22.8 // 26.3
  • In 95 career games, Sammy has averaged 11.97 ppg
  • He’s cracked 20 points just three total times since the start of 2019 (in which he scored 49.8 as a Chief)
  • Duvernay has cracked double digits once (10.2)
  • Rashod Bateman earned a PFF grade of 81.1 in his final college season last year, and 87.1 the year before
  • Player Profiler says Bateman is best comparable to Stefon Diggs
  • Denver has allowed 35 DK ppg to WR rooms in 2021
  • In 2019, Mark Andrews averaged 14.3 ppg (TE #7)
  • Last season, he averaged 12.1 (TE #4)

BAL RBs

  • Ty’Son Williams has a 50% snap share, tops among Ravens RBs
  • He averages 10.7 touches per game
  • Latavius Murray’s snap share is 33.2%, and he averages 8.7 touches per game
  • Latavius has scored both red zone TDs produced by Baltimore RBs
  • Unsurprisingly, against winless teams, Denver ranks 2nd in points allowed to RBs (8.6)

Teddy Bridgewater

  • Teddy has averaged 18.8 ppg in 2021
  • In 52 career games, he’s averaged 15.94 pts
  • He’s only topped 25 pts 5 times
  • Baltimore has allowed 22.7 ppg to QBs this year

DEN Passing Attack

  • This season, Denver has used 11 personnel on 50% of plays, 12 personnel on 30%, and 13 personnel on 14%
  • Team snap share: Noah Fant (80.2%) // Courtland Sutton (77.7%) // Tim Patrick (73.3%) // Albert Okwuegbunam (51%) // Jerry Jeudy (47%) // KJ Hamler (43.6%)
  • Target share: Sutton (21.1%) // Fant (17.9%) // Patrick (13.7%) // Hamler (10.5%) // Albert O (8.4%) // Jeudy (7.4%)
  • Jeudy and Hamler, both primarily slot WRs, are on IR
  • Sutton missed most of last season
  • After entering the league in 2018, Sutton averaged 15.06 pts in 2019
  • His notable DK totals in 19 games starting in 2019: 22 // 24.2 // 21.82 // 23.4 // 27.9
  • With Sutton out of the picture, Sutton’s notable DK totals: 14.3 // 26.3 // 17.1 // 19.9 // 20.4
  • This season, Patrick has scored: 13.9 // 12.7 // 14.8
  • Baltimore’s allowed 36.1 ppg to WRs this year
  • Noah Fant’s snap share ranks 7th among all TEs & his target share ranks 5th
  • Fant’s notable DK scores: 11.1 // 23.5 // 24.3 // 19.1 // 17.7 // 11.7 // 20.8 // 12.5 // 12.2 // 13.3
  • Darren Waller scored 29.5 pts against the Ravens in Week 1, Travis Kelce scored 26.9 in Week 2, but TJ Hockenson only managed 3 pts last week
  • Still, the Ravens are worst in the league in points allowed to TEs
  • Their 22.6 is two full points more than 31st ranked team

DEN RBs

  • Melvin Gordon has a 54.5% snap share, 2.3 targets per game, and 16 touches per game
  • Javonte Williams has a 43.6% snap share, 2 targets per game, and 14.7 touches per game
  • Gordon’s averaging a full yard more per rushing attempt than Javonte
  • Gordon’s averaging 3.7 red zone touches to Javonte’s 2.3
  • As a Bronco, Gordon has averaged 14.24 pts in 18 games
  • Notable scores: 28.8 // 24.1 // 23.8
  • Javonte’s DK total has gone up in each career game: 5.1 // 8.4 // 14.2
  • Baltimore is 28th in DK ppg to RBs (29.2)