Game Overview ::

By Mjohnson86 >>

• Matchups favor Tennessee on both sides of the ball, but injuries loom at key positions for Tennessee potentially dampening the prospects for an offensive explosion.
• The Jets have looked lost and overwhelmed on offense, but this matchup lines up as their best chance for offensive success so far this season.
• New York will feel pressure to put up a solid effort as Jets fans have quickly lost patience with their horrible start.
• Derrick Henry’s success early and the Jets ability to score first half points will dictate the flow of this game.

How TENNESSEE Will Try To Win ::

Tennessee enters this game with a 2-1 record and early control of their division. This is a team that has had five straight winning seasons and has made the playoffs each of the last two years. They know how to take care of business, have large goals down the road, and have a core of players who have been around for most of their recent run of success. While the matchups favor Tennessee on both sides of the ball, this game could easily fall into a “just get out with a win” situation for them rather than a “dominate in all phases” situation. Getting out of here with no further injury issues is the goal for the Titans, if at all possible.

The Titans have injuries in their receiving corps and would prefer to handle things by putting the ball in Derrick Henry’s belly early and building a solid lead, then spelling him frequently throughout the rest of the game and spreading the ball around to a variety of different skill position players; at least nine different players have been targeted in every Titans game this season. The Jets run defense is actually the lone bright spot on their team, ranking 13th in rush defense DVOA, but that is likely helped by the predictable, clock-killing nature of many of the runs they have faced so far this season. While it is a relative strength for the Jets (which isn’t saying much), it is far from being strong enough to deter the Titans from slamming it down their throats. The Titans will also likely try to mix in a few deep shots off play-action as the Jets secondary is the 26th-graded unit by PFF in pass coverage. The Titans won’t be worried about “wasting a down” on some plays that fall incomplete, as they will likely be efficient enough to do that but still move the ball consistently.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The honeymoon is over for Robert Saleh and Zach Wilson. Offensively, the Jets have had about the worst possible start to the season you could imagine and the New York faithful are letting them hear about it in stadiums and in the media:

• Through three games, the Jets have totaled 20 total points with only THREE of those points coming in the first half of a game. 
• Rookie QB and #2 overall pick Zach Wilson has thrown seven interceptions and taken 15 sacks through three games.
• The Jets offensive line is 31st in the NFL in adjusted sack rate and 23rd in adjusted-line yards failing to provide protection on pass plays and failing to give any sort of push to open up running lanes.
• Three Jets running backs have 14 or more carries this season and none of them rank in the top 50 RBs in the NFL in PFF rushing grade.

That list of negative data points is A LOT for one team. The good news is that the Jets will be playing at home in Week 4 against what is, by all accounts, the softest defense they have seen to date. Their first three opponents currently rank #1, #5, and #8 in defensive DVOA while the Titans enter Week 4 with the 28th ranked DVOA defense. There is also something to be said for the learning curve of a rookie QB and an expected delay in a new system taking root of what has been a historically downtrodden organization that has not made the playoffs since 2010. Hopefully, for their sake, they will find a turning point soon to spark this season into something productive that they can build on.

The first order of business for the Jets will be scoring some first half points and keeping Zach Wilson upright. The Titans enter the week with the 27th graded pass rush by PFF, which should relieve some pressure on the offensive line and allow the Jets to call plays more aggressively and let Wilson drop back on early downs more often. The Jets are not loaded with talent anywhere on their roster but their offensive line is an especially sorry bunch and their running game has shown zero signs of life. While the game plan and play-calling last week in Denver was painful to watch, it makes sense that the coaching staff went conservative with Wilson after a four interception performance against the Patriots the week before. It would also make sense for them to try to build his confidence back up this week against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Titans play the 7th highest rate of Cover-1 (man coverage) in the league, so there will be opportunities for the Jets to let Wilson attempt some downfield shot plays and he should be able to see things open more easily as opposed to being confused by the more complex schemes he has seen so far this season.

The Jets will not abandon the running game altogether, but they should have a more aggressive mindset than what we have seen so far this season. As noted above, they have only scored three first half points in three games so their focus for winning this game is simply putting some points on the board early so that they can have a chance to compete in the second half of the game. The Jets don’t really have an offensive “strength,” so their best chance of getting on the scoreboard early is by attacking the relative weakness of the Titans’ pass defense.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Titans will likely try to impose their will with Derrick Henry as their offensive centerpiece early in the game. How efficient he is able to be will likely have a significant effect on how this game plays out. If Henry is able to run all over the Jets early, the Titans will likely be able to finish off drives with touchdowns and build a sizable early lead. In that scenario, Wilson will once again be put in difficult and predictable situations that will make scoring a much more difficult task for the Jets. That would allow the Titans to take their foot off the gas and likely limit the snaps and touch counts of their offensive stars early in the second half.

The other way this game could play out is a scenario where the Titans are without the perimeter threats of Julio and AJ Brown, and the Jets sell out to stop the run and are able to slow the Titans offense early. With the game remaining close, the Jets can let Wilson attack in a more aggressive and less predictable fashion than last week which should lead to some early Jets points. If this were to happen, it will force the Titans to play with more urgency and also extend how deep into the game they will need to keep their stars in and be aggressive in their use of them. If the Jets score 10 first half points, the Titans aren’t going to just pump the breaks in the 3rd quarter with a 20-10 lead.

The game flow for this game depends squarely on two things:

1. How efficient is Derrick Henry early in the game?
2. Can the Jets score 10 points in the first half?

How you feel about those two questions should dictate how you approach this game. Ironically, a true Derrick Henry “blow up” spot is probably more likely if he struggles early on.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Another game where public perception might not line up with potential game environments
• Jalen Hurts, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, and Tyreek Hill all provide solid range of potential outcomes here
• Eagles pass-catchers and secondary Chiefs pieces can be utilized in game stacks and correlated pairings

How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

Interestingly enough, Kansas City falls towards the bottom of the league in situation-neutral pass rate on early downs with the score within seven points (49%) over the first three weeks of the season. That was highly shocking to me when I first dug into this game, so what better way to relay that shock than to lead with it here. But the surface numbers don’t tell the whole story here. Their overall situation-neutral pass rate is a more “Chiefs comfort zone” 62%. The Chiefs hold the league’s top drive success rate on offense while running the football on 54% of their first down plays. Second down is where they open up the offense this season, passing on 80% of their second and four or greater plays, which is an absurdly high rate. Their success rate on second down pass plays is a massive 72%, a stark contrast from the 60% on rushes. All of this is an interesting study into their play calling tendencies based on down and distance to go. Basically, the Chiefs are highly balanced on first down and extremely pass-heavy on second through fourth down, all of which combines to form the most efficient offense in the league. On the defensive side of the ball, the heavy Cover-2 prevent zone defense that is designed to limit splash plays has largely struggled to do just that thus far, leading to a gross 31.67 points allowed per game.

Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has played between 62% and 72% of the offensive snaps in every game so far, leading to running back opportunity totals of 17, 13, and 19. He was all but removed from the game plan after losing a fumble in Week 2 against Baltimore, but was afforded a little more leeway after losing a fumble again in Week 3 against the Chargers, both games they eventually ended up losing. I would all but assume CEH’s leash is becoming increasingly short with respect to ball security. The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.49 net-adjusted line yards metric, but we have to question the prospective effectiveness of CEH toting the ball primarily on first down against stacked boxes. Darrel Williams is next in line for opportunities out of the Kansas City backfield, having played 22%, 27%, and 34% of the offensive snaps in the first three games. 

Through the air is clearly where the money is made with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. The Eagles have somehow allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over the first three weeks of the season, instead yielding the eighth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and a moderate 4.5 yards per carry to opposing backfields. This is one of those spots where matchup pretty much doesn’t matter, but the numbers and film indicate production is likeliest to flow through Travis Kelce. Again, Tyreek Hill can win in any matchup as his skillset is simply so unique, but the volume is likeliest to find its way inside here. Behind the Alpha and Omega, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson have seen between 59% and 78% of the offensive snaps this season, with Byron Pringle a distant fourth at 17% to 38%. 

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Head coach Nick Sirianni seems a little over his head currently in his first taste of head coaching duties. I say that not to throw an unwarranted dig his way, but to highlight the lack of preparation from a game planning perspective he has shown through three weeks. There is simply no other way to rationalize some of the decision-making that has gone on with respect to play calling tendencies over the previous two weeks in games against the 49ers and Cowboys. Both opponents were extremely thin in the secondary at the time the Eagles played them, with only one true talent remaining, yet rookie wide receiver Devonta Smith was routinely schemed targets into press-man coverage. With the amount of speed this team currently has across the board at the wide receiver position, and the amount of veteran savvy they have at the tight end position, and the play making ability they have at the running back position with the ball in their hands in space, there is simply no reason to force designed plays to a rookie in press coverage. With that vent out of the way, this team has the offensive pieces to be effective without a coach trying to outcoach himself. Top-level metrics show a team with moderate situation-neutral rush-pass rates, fast pace of play, a mobile quarterback capable of both designed runs and scrambles, and the personnel to be able to mix up groupings. The reality is this team has played from only three different personnel groupings: 64% 11-personnel, 25% 12-personnel, and 11% 13-personnel.

The ground game has largely remained on the launch pad this season outside of quarterback Jalen Hurts who has 26 total rush attempts on the season, or just under nine per game. Running backs Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell have split snaps and opportunities at a roughly 65/35 clip and the matchup on the ground yields a solid 4.405 net-adjusted line yards metric. That said, the Eagles rank 22^nd in adjusted line yards yet 6^th in running back yards per carry. The primary red zone rusher also remains Jalen Hurts, denting the expected range of outcomes of both Sanders and Gainwell.

Devonta Smith and Jalen Reagor are close to every snap receivers, with slot man Quez Watkins stepping in for 50-65% of the offensive snaps, package-specific slot man Greg Ward stepping in for 20-35% of the offensive snaps, and Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz splitting snaps at the tight end position. The Chiefs have shown some weakness through defending the pass this season, so this is should no longer be considered a matchup where upside is capped until we are proven otherwise. Nothing in the numbers or film points to any one pass-catcher being a better bet than any other here.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The only thing we know with a good deal of certainty is that the Chiefs are likely to put up points. How this game ultimately plays out is almost entirely reliant on what the Eagles are able to muster on the offensive side of the ball. This leaves us with another wide range of potential outcomes as far as game environment goes. What I can tell you with a high degree of certainty is the field is unlikely to view this spot through that lens, instead thinking the Chiefs run the Eagles off the field more than the percentage chance of that actually happening. This could leave us with a nice potential leverage spot through the utilization of correlated pairings and game stacks. I can’t stress enough the fact that there are still teams searching for their identities. Philadelphia is one of those teams. For example, if these teams played 100 times under these exact conditions, how many of them would Hurts keep the Eagles in the game late with his legs alone? 20? How many more would one of the Eagles receivers break a couple long receptions and find their way into the end zone? 15? How many games would the Eagles score first in? 35? Think through these potential outcomes as part of the likeliest scenario puzzle! So, if the Chiefs run the Eagles off the field 50-60% of the time, but the field is only building around the other potential outcomes at a 5-7% clip, did we just generate leverage without making suboptimal plays? You betcha!

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The loss of Christian McCaffrey is a #bigdeal for the Panthers
• CMC leaves behind over a 40% running back opportunity rate and the second most red zone touches in the NFL
• Highly likely that public perception does not match likeliest game flow and chances at this game developing into something you “had to have”
• Nothing points to a narrowed distribution of opportunities for the Cowboys

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers have run the sixth slowest situation-neutral pace of play to start the young season. Pair that with the ninth highest situation-neutral rush rate (45%) and a defense that has surrendered the second-fewest points per game (10.0), fewest rush yards per attempt against (2.6), third-lowest completion percentage against (57.47%), and third-lowest yards per pass attempt against (8.8) and we begin to see a very clear picture of how this new-look football team is attempting to win games. The big question for the immediate future is how that game plan will change, or if it will at all, in the absence of running back extraordinaire Christian McCaffrey. Although this team lost an offensive star, they did add cornerback CJ Henderson to a vaunted secondary which includes Donte Jackson, AJ Bouye, Keith Taylor, Jeremy Chinn, and Sam Franklin (not to mention standout rookie Jaycee Horn, who landed on IR this week). 

Following CMC’s injury in Week 3, rookie running back Chuba Hubbard went on to see 78.44% of the offensive snaps sans CMC, leaving newcomer Royce Freeman a distant 21.56%. To best understand how the team adapted to the loss of CMC, let’s examine the opportunity rate (running back opportunities per snap) of CMC, Hubbard, and Freeman. CMC saw nine total running back opportunities in just 22 offensive snaps prior to his injury, a massive 40.9% opportunity rate. Hubbard saw a solid 16 running back opportunities in 40 offensive snaps, a still unreal 40.0% opportunity rate. Finally, Freeman saw six running back opportunities in 11 offensive snaps, or an unsustainable 54.54% opportunity rate. In total, in a game the Panthers controlled throughout against the hapless Texans, Panther running backs saw an opportunity on 31 of 73 offensive snaps, good for a 42.47% opportunity share. That rate would rank top of the league just about any week of the season. The matchup on the ground yields an average net-adjusted line yards metric of 4.275 but we should expect Chubba Hubbard to see 20-24 meaningful running back opportunities if we assume his 70%+ snap rate carries forward into Week 4 (beat reports out of Carolina say Chubba will draw the start).

Through the air, this offense has reverted to roles and opportunities it found effective two years ago. The current coaching staff has maximized the talents available to them, transitioning wide receivers DJ Moore (10.0 aDOT) and Robby Anderson (18.1 aDOT) back into running routes where each has proved to be most effective throughout their respective careers, but the addition of rookie wide receiver Terrace Marshall (6.1 aDOT, 69.5% slot snap rate) has meant less combined slot snaps for Moore and Anderson. It is likeliest Robby Anderson sees most of the Cowboys’ best defensive player in cornerback Trevon Diggs, who has an interception in each game played this season. The weaknesses of the Cowboys defense are over the short to intermediate middle of the field and perimeter opposite Diggs, where Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown have ceded a combined 19 completions on 32 targets in their primary coverage, for 285 yards and three touchdowns. Those are the primary areas of the field that rookie wide receiver Terrace Marshall, Jr. operates. Behind the three starting wide receivers, Brandon Zylstra has played only 44 offensive snaps through the weeks and a whopping five tight ends (Ian Thomas, Dan Arnold, Tommy Tremble, Giovanni Ricci, and Colin Thompson) have played meaningful snaps this season, with all five seeing snaps in two of three games. Consider me not excited about this situation moving forward even with the departure of Dan Arnold.

How Dallas Will Try To Win ::

Dallas is seen as an offense that plays with pace and throws the football at a high rate, which was true in Week 1 prior to the injury to wide receiver Michael Gallup. The numbers tell a different story since his injury. In Week 2 and Week 3, Dallas carried the second-highest situation-neutral rush rate at 55% behind only the Browns and ranked right in the middle of the league in pace of play. Not only that but their offensive line is healthy and back to being an elite run-blocking unit (ranked first in the NFL in adjusted line yards through three weeks). Dallas has also followed suit with the changing dynamics and trends in the NFL of increased 12-personnel rates, playing two tight ends 30% of the time (11-personnel at a below-average 57% clip).

The matchup on the ground is going to be a fun one to watch from a fan’s perspective as it pits the top-performing run-blocking offensive line against a defense allowing the fewest yards per carry to start the season, a matchup that yields a below-average 3.825 net-adjusted line yards metric. The “one cut and find your lane” running style of Ezekiel Elliott at this point in his career mixes well with the open-field burst and vision of Tony Pollard, but the Cowboys have been reluctant to play them on the field together thus far, leaving the offense a little more predictable than we’d otherwise like to see from a rushing perspective. 

The matchup through the air appears likeliest to yield production for the Cowboys as their offense has been much more tailored to the short and intermediate areas of the field this season (24^th-ranked yards per completion at 9.7; Amari Cooper aDOT of 8.1, CeeDee Lamb aDOT of 10.5, Cedrick Wilson aDOT of 8.4, Noah Brown aDOT of 9.0), areas which the Panthers are more likely to cede production to based on their back-end-forward defensive philosophy which aims to shorten the field, keep the play in front of them, and swarm to the point of reception to limit yards after the catch. In other words, we can expect both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb to see respectable volume here, but their individual upside is limited due to the prevent nature of Carolina’s heavy zone defense. Behind those two, all of Cedrick Wilson, Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz, and Blake Jarwin should be expected to see 30-70% snap rates in what has become a maddening timeshare of secondary pass game options. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

There is clear expected regression from a Carolina defense ranked first in the NFL in most defensive metrics (first in yards allowed per drive at 17.31, first in plays per drive at 4.75, first in time of possession per drive at 2:18, and first in drive success rate allowed at 56.3%), but this is yet another difficult matchup for these Cowboys following games against the Buccaneers, Chargers, and Eagles. On the other side of that coin, this will serve as the Panthers most difficult test, particularly on defense, after they opened the season with games against the Jets, Saints, and Texans. Due to the tendencies of both the Dallas offense and the Carolina defense, it is likeliest we see this game start with limited splash plays and two teams aiming to control the trenches down low. This will force an early game flow where each team is likely to aim to string drives together through methodical (and time consuming) drives. With a game setup like we have here, the overall game flow possibilities begin to narrow, leaving a lower likelihood of a back-and-forth style shootout. In other words, this game holds greater than a 50% chance to struggle to hit its lofty game total of 50.5.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Saints have thrown under 23 times in all three games
• Sean Payton is using intelligent design to limit Jameis Winston
• Alvin Kamara has a wider range of outcomes than in previous seasons
• Saquon Barkley is underpriced for his role, in a bad matchup

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Sean Payton is a better coach than Bill Belichick and it might not be that close (note from JM: I beg to differ 🤣). The Saints and Patriots found themselves in similar positions entering Week 3. Both teams had recently lost a top five all-time QB and are rebuilding after decades of success. Sean Payton only threw the ball 21 times, effectively preventing his turnover prone QB from losing him the game and allowing him to ride his best player (Kamara) to victory. Bill Belichick let his rookie QB chuck it 51 times into a strong Saints defense, giving up a defensive TD early in the third quarter with the game still in reach.

Sean Payton is adapting as well as any coach in NFL history to the loss of such a significant piece of his offense. The Saints have thrown the ball 21, 22, and 21 times through the first three weeks. Amazing! There might be a game this year where a team throws 65 times. This isn’t John Fox throwing 20 times a game either, it’s a highly intelligent approach to maximize this roster’s winning potential. Payton is smart enough to know that letting Jameis Winston chuck it all over the yard is fun, but it doesn’t win games. He knows letting Jameis drop back is like raising your bet in Blackjack, and Payton only wants to do it when the deck is hot. Until then, he is happy to ride his borderline top 10 defense and elite RB to victory. Payton is smart enough to take this approach until knocked out of it, rather than trying to attack a defense’s relative weakness, potentially allowing Jameis to lose games. Don’t be surprised if, in a high leverage spot later in the season, Payton comes out firing with Jameis after putting all these low passing totals on film. That’s the level Payton is on compared to other coaches.

The Giants offer no reason for Payton to deviate from his preferred approach. Expect the Saints to start the game featuring Kamara unless forced to go a different direction. They will continue to limit Winston’s pass attempts and another 20-25 attempt game is a real possibility. The Saints will be happy to win this way until forced to change, or they change on their own for surprise value.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 0-3 Giants are asking themselves the same question: how can we try to win this game? “Boss, how can I figure out one of the best designed defenses in the league, in time for a Sunday victory?” says Jason Garrett, as he game plans by pacing back and forth beneath a 10-foot painting of Jerry Jones. Maybe that isn’t the way Jason Garrett game plans, but you wouldn’t know it from watching the Giants offense through three weeks. They have been highly reactionary, and Garrett continues to try and “keep everyone involved” rather than go after the defense he’s playing in a creative and unique way.

Expect the Giants to try and stay balanced, involving everyone on offense for as long their defense holds up, before eventually skewing pass heavy to try and catch up late. Garrett is likely to turn pass heavy once the game is already decided, rather than early enough to still give the Giants a chance at victory.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game opened with a miniature total of 41.5 and has held steady throughout the early week. A Saints home game with such a low total shows the dramatic difference in this year’s squad. Payton has limited Winston to under 23 attempts for three straight games, and there is no reason he won’t make it a fourth. The Saints should pull ahead slowly, while limiting Winston’s chances to hurt them, eventually building a multiple score lead in the fourth quarter. Expect the Giants to struggle to protect the QB behind a bad O-line while trying to run a bad scheme. They will stay balanced at first, before abandoning the run late once the game is already out of reach.  

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Keep an eye on the health of Cleveland’s second-ranked offensive line; both center JC Tretter (knee) and left tackle Jedrick Wills, Jr. (ankle) have yet to practice this week
• The spread nature of the Cleveland offense means all players must rely on efficiency and touchdowns in order to provide a GPP-worthy fantasy score
• Everything sets up well here for some fireworks to develop; it’s much easier to nail down where that production is likeliest to come from on the Vikings, while it remains damn near impossible for the Browns

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Slow pace of play (26^th at 33.26), hefty situation-neutral rush rates (second highest in the NFL at 53%), low blitz rates and organic pressure up front, and a conservative 4-2-5 base Cover-3 defense designed to limit splash plays has been the name of the game for these Browns. On defense, Cleveland has allowed just a 60% completion rate and middle of the pack 10.7 yards per completion against. On the season, the Browns have run 11-personnel on a below average 39% of their offensive plays, instead electing heavy 12- and 13-personnel alignments (21% each). Considering the typical low-upside nature of this passing attack, quarterback Baker Mayfield’s fifth-ranked 9.4 yards per attempt comes somewhat as a surprise, but might just be an evolution in how this team will look to attack through the air in 2021.

The ground game has been the backbone of this team for the previous couple of years. Although the matchup yields the top net-adjusted line yards metric of the week at a silly 4.93, the Browns offensive line could be without two of their offensive linemen in center JC Tretter and left tackle Jedrick Wills, Jr., who have both yet to practice (as of Thursday). Keep an eye on this situation as it could have a significant impact to Cleveland’s offensive efficiency. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota middle linebacker Eric Kendricks, one of the Vikings’ top run-stoppers, appears ready for Week 4 after returning to full practice on Thursday. While Derrick Henry has increased his weekly value significantly through a modest bump to pass game work, Browns running back Nick Chubb has seen only three targets all season and is typically held in the 15-20 touch range. Cleveland has at least upped their 21-personnel usage rate to 14% on the season, but we’re primarily seeing either Chubb or Kareem Hunt on the field, not both. Hunt has seen nine, 14, and 17 running back opportunities through the first three weeks and could be called on slightly more should the two offensive linemen miss this contest.

Baker Mayfield’s pass attempts typically land in a tight window of 27-32 attempts, so all Cleveland pass-catchers rely heavily on efficiency and touchdown output to provide fantasy utility. Odell Beckham, Jr. made his season debut in Week 3, seeing a modest 64% snap rate which he turned into five receptions on nine targets for 77 yards. In that Week 3 game, four wide receivers saw snap rates between 35% and 65% and there isn’t much to indicate a large shift in that philosophy in the immediate future. I referenced the Browns tight end usage earlier, but all three of Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant have seen more than 32% of the offensive snaps in each game this season, with the former two typically in for around 60% of the offensive snaps and the latter averaging a 42% snap rate. Basically, there’s a whole bunch of “share the love” mentality going on here. The matchup through the air against the Vikings is pristine. They have allowed a 28^th-ranked 12.1 yards per completion, the worst completion rate against in the league (75.79%), and 26.0 points per game on the young season.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings appear to have been much more aggressive in their play calling this season, landing in the middle of the pack in overall situation-neutral pass rates as well as early down situation-neutral pass rates. They are still relatively hesitant to throw on early downs with the score within seven points, but the overarching trend is that their situational play calling has taken a step forward early in the season. They have also been much more explorative in their personnel alignments, running 11-personnel a below average 51% of the time, and mixing in pretty much every other trackable offensive personnel alignment at varying rates. They do remain, however, a slow pace of play offense in 2021, which is much more likely a tool used to mask their defensive deficiencies than it is married to their rush rate plans.

Dalvin Cook is expected back this week after missing the Vikings’ Week 3 contest, and should immediately regain his 70%+ standard snap rate. In his two fully healthy games, Dalvin has seen running back opportunities of 27 and 25. We should take that as his norm for Week 4 assuming his ankle is healthy enough to play. After 30 combined touchdowns over the previous two season, he holds just one trip to the paint in 2021, a trend likely to seek stark correction sooner rather than later. The matchup on the ground yields a below average 3.64 net-adjusted line yards metric, but the heavy expected workload and pass game involvement are difficult to ignore. Behind Dalvin, expect Alexander Mattison to revert to his loose change of pace duties and 15-20% snap rate, while fullback CJ Ham sees his standard 25-30% snap rate.

Adam Thielen’s 22.2% target market share, 7.1 aDOT, low 2.9 yards after the catch, and moderate 61.7 air yards per game leaves a lot to be desired when he’s not scoring touchdowns. The problem (problem?) is that he’s pretty good at that scoring touchdowns thing. When you compare the pure metrics, analytics, and statistics between he and Justin Jefferson, the floor of Jefferson feels clearly superior. Jefferson’s 25.6% target market share, 10.9 aDOT, 4.7 yards after the catch, and 108.7 air yards per game were bound to provide a nice “get-right” spot, which we saw come to fruition in Week 3. Behind those two top dogs, KJ Osborn has played 59% of the offensive snaps in consecutive weeks following his seemingly out of nowhere 81% snap rate in Week 1 (another nod to not overreacting to early season statistics). He and Tyler Conklin should be considered low floor, touchdown-driven moderate ceiling options in roles we figured to be right on entering the season.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Both of these teams prefer to run the football to set up the pass, it just appears that through Week 3 of 2021 the Browns are running to set up the deep pass while the Vikings are running and attacking the short and intermediate areas of the field through the air. If you had asked me before the season started, I would have had that backwards (dunno emoji). Now, is this a trend worth reading into or simply data influenced by a small sample size? The answer is we don’t really know yet. I will say, it is rather telling that Kirk Cousins holds the lowest pocket time of any non-Texans quarterback and has faced the most blitzes in the NFL through three weeks, which is likely to have had a large influence on his depth of target. We know the Browns blitz at extremely low rates, instead allowing their front four to organically create pressure, which allows their conservative zone defense to sit in coverage. Why is this all important? Knowing this can give us a better idea of where and how the Vikings are likeliest to attack through the air and also greatly affects their expected drive success rate. Since we know Cleveland is likelier than not to experience success on offense, the higher the likelihood Minnesota has to generate successful drives, the higher likelihood this game has to shoot out, and all signs are currently pointing to that being the case.

To review and sum that up, the Browns run to set up deep passing against a defense struggling against the run and against deep passing, and the Vikings are likely to see a slight boost to expected offensive drive success rate with lower pressure rates on quarterback Kirk Cousins, who currently ranks sixth in the NFL in total fantasy points scored in spite of the absurd pressure that has been generated against him and low pocket time. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• David Montgomery and Allen Robinson are cheap relative to their roles
• This is expected to be the worst game environment on the slate
• Monitor who is expected to start at QB for the Bears
• T.J. Hockenson is likely to be schemed looks after vanishing last week

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

There are no words for the Bears Week 3 performance. They got absolutely lambasted, eviscerated, embarrassed, shamed, wrecked, destroyed, and annihilated. Okay, so there are a few words for what happened to the Bears last week. After getting pasted Week 1 by a Rams team that looks scary good, and squeaking by the not-expected-to-contend Bengals, Matt Nagy’s Bears forgot they get paid to play football in Week 3. Nagy is in a tough position. He’s largely been successful as the Bears’ head coach, posting a 29-21 career record and leading the Bears to the playoffs in two out of three seasons. It’s easy to forget he won coach of the year in 2018. It’s easy to forget because he’s never won a playoff game (0-2) and made the playoffs last year with an 8-8 record. The NFL is a what have you done for me lately league, and Nagy hasn’t done much lately. Now he is tasked with deciding who to start at QB between Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, and Nick Foles (yes, he’s still around).

Nagy hasn’t always been the sharpest coach in the NFL, but he’s also not a total clown, and he can figure out that no matter which QB starts this week, his best chance is to win on the ground. Expect the Bears to try and pound David Montgomery for as long as they can to overpower the Lions in the trenches. If the run game fails, the manner and style in which the Bears take to the air will depend on who’s throwing the passes, but this is a situation Nagy will try to avoid. Expect a conservative game plan and a “hide the QB” approach for as long as the scoreboard allows.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

It’s hard not to root for the Lions. They have one of the least talented rosters in recent memory and started the year against three teams expected to contend (49ers/Packers/Ravens). All three of those games should have been blowouts. Instead, the Lions roared back against the 49ers, shell shocked the Packers, and pushed Ravens to an NFL record 66-yard FG off the bar as time expired. If the Ravens have the second-best kicker in the league, the Lions are 1-2.

Dan Campbell gave us a glimpse of how he’d like to attack in a game where his team isn’t trying to catch up. The Lions ran an almost perfectly balanced attack, throwing 31 times versus 27 team carries; this despite being down 13 midway through the third quarter, which shows the Lions are willing to stay balanced even when losing if the game is close. The Lions are still trying to figure out their identity as a team. So far they have been willing to throw over 50 passes when trailing early, and willing to stay balanced throughout the game when the score is within reach. Since the Bears are unlikely to push the Lions, expect them to remain balanced throughout this game, skewing slightly towards the pass. The relative weakness of the Bears defense on paper is their cornerbacks but last week’s game showed their front seven is vulnerable to a good run game, as the Brows lit them up for 215 yards on the ground. The Lions running game isn’t nearly as strong as the Browns, but if the game remains tight expect the Lions to stick with it until the end.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game opened with a minuscule 42.5 total, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see it get bet down. This is a matchup between two bad teams and points will be at a premium for both sides in what is likely to be an uneventful affair. The Bears are a modest three point home favorites, indicating this is an even game on a neutral field. The most likely way this plays out is a mistake filled game (especially if Justin Fields is at the helm for the Bears), with the Bears running game being able to do just enough to secure a sloppy victory.

There are possible tributaries, but none of them deserve their own writeup. One scenario is the scrappy Lions, that just brawled against three contending teams, come into Chicago and lay one on the Bears who are the weakest competition they have faced this season. It’s hard to say the Lions and “lay one on” in the same sentence, but it is possible in this spot.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Very limited ways for the Bills offense to fail here
• Stefon Diggs leads the league in air yards per game with 140.0 but has largely disappointed thus far
• Public perception and recency bias might tilt the field towards the Buffalo run game
• Extremely tough matchup for the Texans to keep pace, but if they do, it is likeliest to flow through Brandin Cooks (and a game stack is likely to carry minuscule ownership)

How Houston Will Try To Win ::

Houston combines elevated rush rates with a moderate pace of play in an attempt to keep pressure off a defense allowing over 385 yards of total offense per game. The biggest issue for this Texans team is a defensive line allowing the second highest adjusted line yards and fourth highest running back yards per attempt in the league. Their lack of talent at the linebacker position has also led to the second most second-level yards allowed. The secondary has actually performed quite well considering the overall lack of talent, allowing a middle-of-the-pack 66.04% completion rate in coverage and 11.5 yards per completion. Rookie quarterback Davis Mills hasn’t performed particularly well in relief of injured starter Tyrod Taylor and the team shouldn’t be expected for more than 55-60 offensive snaps on a standard week. In other words, based on what we know and have seen from this team, a standard week would yield 28-32 rush attempts and 27-30 pass attempts.

The four-headed running back conglomerate is loosely led by Mark Ingram II and David Johnson, with the latter used more heavily through the air. Phillip Lindsay and Rex Burkhead soak up 15-20% of the offensive snaps and typically are reserved for change of pace duties. It’s an interesting concept to have a change of pace back for both the run game and the pass game, yet here we are. The matchup on the ground yields a ghastly 3.225 net-adjusted line yards metric against a stout defensive front, but we should expect the Texans to approach this game the same way considering their antiquated coaching staff and scheme. Basically, the Texans will try and win games on the ground until otherwise forced, but the problem for them is they are expected to be “otherwise forced” early in most games.

Targeted on a massive 43.5% of Mills’ pass attempts, wide receiver Brandin Cooks sits at fifth in the NFL in total targets through three weeks with 32. Considering Danny Amendola started his second consecutive week with a DNP and rookie wide receiver Nico Collins is on the IR, all signs point to yet another double-digit target game for Mr. Cooks here. The problem this week is he’ll be running routes in the primary coverage of All-World corner Tre’Davious White, and against a secondary including Levi Wallace, Micah Hyde, Taron Johnson, and Jordan Poyer. Expect Cooks’ efficiency to suffer as a result. Cooks will likely be joined by Chris Conley (five total targets on the season) and Anthony Miller (six targets in his first game action in Week 3) in the starting lineup for the second straight week. At the tight end position, all of Pharoah Brown, Jordan Akins, and Antony Auclair see meaningful snaps. None are viable weekly options.

How Buffalo Will Try To Win ::

Buffalo has won their previous two games rather handily after opening the year with a home loss against the Steelers. In those two games, the Bills held a situation-neutral pass rate of 60%, down from 68% in their Week 1 game, which is important information when considering the high likelihood they control this game from start to finish. That said, the Bills have run 85 (!!!), 63, and 71 offensive plays during the first three weeks, meaning chances are high we see another 70+ play game here. That would lead to a likeliest scenario of 40-42 pass attempts from quarterback Josh Allen (43 in Week 3 and 33 in a Week 2 shutout in which they ran only 63 offensive plays). All of that to say, pass volume is still likely to be there in a game we expect the Bills to run away with.

Yes, running back Zach Moss has scored 17.1 and 18.1 fantasy points over the previous two weeks, but he has done that on 28% and 56% of the offensive snaps. There is nothing to indicate Devin Singletary’s role will be reduced moving forward (although whether it should or not isn’t really up for debate), so Moss is going to have to maintain unreal efficiency and score multiple touchdowns to be someone worthy of your rosters. Furthermore, the Bills rank behind only the Football Team in wide receiver target rate to begin the year and check in with only a 13% running back target rate. All of this comes together to leave me with little interest in any part of this running back stable, even in a game the Bills are expected to handily control.

As highlighted above, the main cogs in this Bills pass attack are the wide receivers (13% running back target rate and 12% tight end target rate). What most people are not going to realize this week is just how close Stefon Diggs is to an eruption game. Diggs currently leads the NFL in air yards per game at 140.0, has 32 targets and zero drops, has an aDOT of 13.1, holds a 26.2% team target market share, and 36.4% of the team’s available air yards. He has primarily been dragged down by an inexplicably low 68.8% catchable target rate. It’s coming and I want to be early to this party rather than late. There is nothing in the matchup that should slow this passing attack down, which means my total interest in this side of the ball will come down to expected ownership prior to lock. As expected from the preseason team primers, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders leads the team in snap rate and is being moved all over the formation. Cole Beasley has seen snap rates of 66% and 60% in the two previous blowout wins, while Gabriel Davis has been relegated to “best WR4 in the NFL” status, playing 32% and 29% of the offensive snaps the previous two weeks. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likeliest the Bills control this game from start to finish. A conservative head coach and coaching staff that likes to run the ball, with a poor on-paper run matchup and a rookie third-string quarterback do not raise one’s confidence in the Texans here. But what we need to understand is that does not necessarily equate to a drastic decrease in expected pass volume for the Bills, assuming some outlier performance from the defense does not transpire (as in, the defense doesn’t score two defensive touchdowns and provide more time of possession for the Texans). Furthermore, the likeliest way for Buffalo to establish a lead is through the passing game, meaning the very unique scenario where the defense provides an outlier performance and two of the three first touchdowns come from the Buffalo run game is the only way this passing game fails here (the Bills aren’t going to fail to score points here).

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>

• Very important game for two teams who entered the season with lofty expectations but are now a combined 1-5.
• Indianapolis faces a clear “path of least resistance” that matches up squarely with their strengths and how they want to win.
• Miami has been plagued by offensive struggles all season but may have found a spark at the end Week 3.
• Both teams are very well coached, but inconsistencies at QB hold back the potential for otherwise very solid rosters.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Jonathan Taylor is very clearly the Colts’ best offensive skill player and their weapon of choice for attacking opponents. Unfortunately for Indianapolis, they have only led for a combined six minutes across three games and have been unable to get their running game going so far this year. Also contributing to those struggles is the fact that their traditionally strong offensive line has struggled mightily so far in 2021. After being a top-3 graded run-blocking unit by PFF each of the last three seasons, they enter Week 4 ranked 23rd in the same metric. Injuries are playing a major role in this downturn in efficiency and Week 4 appears that it will be no different, with All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson likely to miss the game with a high-ankle sprain. On the positive side for Indianapolis, Miami is a clear step down in opposing offense which should allow for a better game script and let them attack how they prefer rather than spending most of the game chasing high powered teams. While the Colts have remained competitive throughout the last two games, the reality is when you are playing from behind — even early in games or only by one score — to a team like the Rams or Titans with high-powered offenses, there is an added urgency that will nudge your play calling tendencies. Taylor’s touches have gone down every week with touch counts of 23 // 16 // 11 while his efficiency has gone up every week with yards per carry of 3.3 // 3.4 // 6.4 to start the season. 

Indianapolis will likely try to get Taylor rolling like he was to end the 2020 season against a Miami team that has a loaded secondary and top-10 DVOA defense against the pass. The Colts lack talent on the perimeter and QB Carson Wentz continues to struggle with accuracy and consistency which will make attacking downfield a tough proposition for them. Second year wide receiver Michael Pittman has emerged as the “alpha” in the Indianapolis receiving corps with 12 targets in each of the last two games, which is good for a 35% target share. However, he will find Week 4 to be tough sledding against All-Pro cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Howard was the #3 graded cornerback by PFF in 2020 and led the NFL with 10 interceptions. It will be interesting to see if he shadows Pittman in this matchup, as he will sometimes do, now that Pittman has emerged as the clear preferred option for the Colts. If that is the case, it is likely that Pittman’s targets will take a severe decline here as the Colts will want the mistake-prone Wentz to steer clear of Howard if at all possible. 

The preferred method of attack for Indianapolis here should be a heavy dose of the run game and some screen passes and quick hitters against an aggressive unit that blitzed at the 5th highest rate in the NFL in 2020 and will likely bring a lot of pressure to try to force Wentz into mistakes. Even if Taylor’s usage goes up here, it is likely that Nyheim Hines gets a decent amount of touches given how the matchup sets up and the fact that he has been one of the only true playmakers for the Colts so far this season. Wentz will likely spread the ball around fairly evenly to the wide receivers and tight ends on plays that are not designed for the running backs and may be forced to do some damage with his legs against the blitz-happy Dolphins as he has averaged over 20 rushing yards per game since the start of the 2020 season. Wentz has actually done a good job taking care of the ball so far this year, with only two turnovers through three games, but this sets up as a dicey proposition for him if Miami is able to get pressure home and get him to force the ball into tight spaces against their secondary.

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

Miami scored a touchdown on their season opening drive against the Patriots and scored a touchdown with 0:02 left in their Week 3 game against the Raiders to force overtime. In the 10+ quarters between those plays they only had two offensive touchdowns, one of which came on a short field from a turnover on downs. To sum it up, they have been very poor offensively to start the season. The loss of starting quarterback Tua Tagavailoa in Week 2 definitely has something to do with that, but the play calling and execution has left a lot to be desired. That being said, the Dolphins appear to have found something late in their game against the Raiders as they started to sustain some drives in the second half by moving almost exclusively to shotgun formations, increasing their tempo and no-huddle rates, and calling plays at over a 2-to-1 pass-to-run ratio during the second half and overtime.

Entering Week 4 ranked 30th by PFF in run blocking and 26th in the NFL in adjusted line yards created, it would make sense for Miami to continue with the formula that got them back in the game against the Raiders last week against a Darius Leonard led defense that is notoriously strong against the run. Since the start of 2019, the Colts have given up four 100-yard rushing games in five matchups with the freakish Derrick Henry and NONE over their other 30 games. Jacoby Brissett used his legs well last week, scrambling seven times for 37 yards, and the Dolphins peppered targets to the short and intermediate areas of the field. While Brissett did complete passes at a respectable 65% rate last week on heavy volume (49 attempts), he averaged a startlingly low 4.39 yards per pass attempt due to the nature of the throws. We should expect a similarly low average depth of target this week against a Colts defense that prefers to drop defenders back in zone coverage and does not blitz often, playing the 2nd highest rate of zone in the NFL in 2020 and showing similar tendencies so far in the young 2021 season.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game is unlikely to pick up in pace for the first three quarters. Neither team has shown a tremendous amount of trust in their quarterback, nor has their quarterback given them a reason to, which makes it unlikely that either team will be aggressive enough to make explosive plays to raise the tempo. Indianapolis will use a lot of clock and try to move the chains behind the strength of their running game and against the relative weakness of the Miami defense while the Dolphins will employ a similarly conservative style, but are unlikely to have success on the ground and will instead use quick, short passes as an extension of the run game. Both teams are well-coached (meaning there is a low likelihood of defensive breakdowns allowing big plays) and neither offense is very efficient or likely to create explosive plays, which makes it unlikely that this game turns into much of an offensive showcase. The Vegas total for this game is currently 42.5 (second lowest on the slate) and seems about right to me with a chance to go over, but unlikely to significantly exceed expectations. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Who are the Atlanta Falcons? Because at this point, it is fairly apparent they aren’t even sure of that answer
• Atlanta’s offense looks disjointed and lost, but when they figure it out, it is likely to hit like a ton of bricks based on the talent they have on that side of the ball
• Washington’s offense has devolved into a predictable system based on personnel
• Both of these teams have the talent on offense to generate production, it just needs to be more consistent and forward-thinking

How Washington Will Try To Win :

Washington holds the seventh-highest situation-neutral rush rate and the ninth-fastest situation-neutral pace of play through three weeks. Their defense has allowed a whopping 30.67 points per game, primarily on the backs of 307 pass yards allowed per game. They’re going to need to correct a couple of things before finding sustainable success: (1) tighten up the back end of their defense and limit the yards allowed after the catch, (2) become less one-dimensional in the run game, and (3) tighten up in the red zone. Until those come to fruition, we’re likely going to be targeting this team for plus game environments. One of the biggest problems lies with the failure of the offense to sustain drives. When this is paired with an increased pace of play, it puts a good deal of pressure on the defense, as evidenced by their 29^th-ranked drive success rate allowed on defense.

On the ground, the offense is highly predictable and one-dimensional. The lack of targets flowing to starting running back Antonio Gibson allows opposing defenses to dedicate additional defenders to the box, making it difficult for the zone run scheme to be effective. The matchup with the Falcons yields a slightly above average 4.37 net-adjusted line yards metric and we should expect Antonio Gibson to approach 20 rush attempts in all but negative game scripts. Behind Gibson, expect JD McKissic to see increased snap rates and opportunity counts in shootouts and negative game scripts, but be relegated to a situational role in slugfests and positive game scripts.

The Football Team runs 11-personnel at the third-highest rate in the league through three weeks, and an absolutely absurd 81% of the targets thus far have flowed through the wide receiver position. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin has played all but two offensive snaps while tight end Logan Thomas has played every offensive snap to start the year. This gives these two guys in particular a massive weekly ceiling should the game environment dictate a boost to passing volume. That said, we know Washington would like to incorporate pace with high rush rates to start games. So, an increase in pass volume is almost entirely in the hands of their opponent. This makes betting on the game environment overall the best way to attack Washington’s pass game.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Another game down and we still have little to no clue what the end game looks like for this Falcons team. What we do know is Atlanta experimented with heavy perimeter snaps for “tight end” Kyle Pitts in Week 3, basically throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks. That brilliant idea was met with Adoree’ Jackson’s shadow coverage whilst in on perimeter snaps. Apparently, the threat of Olamide Zaccheaus and Tajae Sharpe isn’t enough to coax opposing defenses into more straight-up coverages, who knew? Okay, all joking aside, this is still a team largely searching for their identity on both sides of the ball. Washington is a clear pass-funnel defense, having allowed only 16.5 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs but 12.6 per game to opposing tight ends and a massive 54.5 per game to opposing wide receivers. Russell Gage has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday), so we should expect another week of Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, Mike Davis, Cordarrelle Patterson, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Tajae Sharpe as the primary skill players.

We mentioned the pass-funnel nature of the Football Team’s defense, which should serve to elevate the target expectations of both Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson. Davis has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps in every game thus far, seeing running back opportunity counts of 21, 16, and 16 (with 17 of those being targets). Patterson has seen exactly seven rush attempts in every game and has target totals of two, seven, and seven. Due to the loose committee split in snaps and opportunities, both Davis and Patterson would likely require multiple trips to the end zone to provide a meaningful fantasy score here. The matchup on the ground yields a slightly below average 3.98 net-adjusted line yards metric, but the primary utility of both of these backs remains through the air.

Check this out, real quick. Kyle Pitts has 101 total routes through three games, second at the “tight end” position. His 84.9% route participation rate ranks fourth at the position. He has seen a 33.3% slot snap rate and 76.2% of the total offensive snaps. Yet his 17 targets rank seventh at the position, his 134 air yards rank eighth, his yards after the catch rank 17^th (sheesh!!!), and his yards per route run ranks 26^th. As soon as this coaching staff figures out how to get Kyle Pitts in space, this entire offense should turn around. As of right now, it’s “Hey, Kyle, go run seven yards over there and stop,” which is vexingly preposterous. Now, check this out. Calvin Ridley holds a 47.9% team air yards share, which is good for only 82.7 air yards per game. That translates to, “the Falcons are not attacking deep with any level of frequency.” That assertion is backed up by Calvin Ridley’s grand total of two targets of greater than 20 yards downfield so far this year. Woof. His 8.6 aDOT and 3.4 average yards after the catch both rank in the bottom 20% of the league. The way to beat this Football Team defense is through the air to all levels of the field, but it remains to be seen when the Falcons will figure that part of their offense out.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Man, oh man, a wide range of outcomes alert. Both offenses have the pieces to put up points here and both defenses have struggled with communication issues and coverage lapses on the back end early in the season. That said, the Football Team is struggling through one-dimensionality with Taylor Heinicke at the helm and the Falcons have yet to find any semblance of offensive identity. This leaves us with one of the widest ranges of outcomes with respect to the likeliest game flows on the slate. This leaves me with actually quite a bit of interest in correlated pairings that bet on this game environment overwhelming compared to public perception, primarily surrounding Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and Logan Thomas. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Injuries to San Francisco’s secondary could force increased zone coverage rates, which spells trouble against the downfield-attacking pass offense of the Seahawks
• Keep an eye on George Kittle’s status on the Friday injury report; he has missed both practices so far this week with a calf injury
• When you consider San Francisco’s sixth-ranked drive success rate and 12^th-ranked time of possession per drive, paired with Seattle’s 31^st-ranked time of possession per drive, we’re unlikely to see additional plays run from scrimmage for the Seahawks here (have either 53 or 54 offensive plays run from scrimmage in every game this year)

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks started the year in a promising fashion (as far as fantasy football goes), playing with pace on offense to pair with their high rush rates and downfield attack through the air. Over the subsequent two games, that game plan has all but dried up as the defense has struggled. Damn shame. They have now settled into the 13^th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and moderate 60% situation-neutral pass rate range, but I expect those numbers to continue to fall as Pete Carroll continues to place the blame on the wrong side of the football (his previous reasoning for not running a pace-up offense when his defense is struggling is that it places too much strain on the defense, which is more or less accurate but for the wrong reasons – as in, the reason the Seahawks rank towards the bottom of the league in time of possession is mostly due to their downfield-attacking nature through the pass game, which leads to binary outcomes of incompletions and stalled drives or quick scores). The glaring stats that highlight this truth are their 15^th-ranked points per drive value of 2.42 paired with a 31^st-ranked time of possession per drive of 2:17.

With Rashaad Penny appearing likely to miss a third consecutive contest, look for Travis Homer to be the primary change of pace running back behind Chris Carson. The lack of receiving work makes Carson a yardage and touchdown back, one highly reliant on touchdown equity to return fantasy goodness. Not only that, but Carson is one of the most game flow reliant running backs in the league from an expected volume perspective, making his floor dangerously low outside of very specific game flows. The matchup on the ground yields a slightly above average 4.45 net-adjusted line yards metric.

The low overall expected time of possession from the Seahawks (considering the opponent) and moderate pass rates leads to a standard range of outcomes of 28-34 pass attempts for the Seahawks in this game. The combined 56.3% team target market share between DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett means these two wide receivers are likely to combine for 16 to 19 targets in a standard game, with not much dictating who would be likeliest to see a spike in volume over the other in a standard week. The Niners are thin at the cornerback position but have allowed only 36.9 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Behind Metcalf and Lockett, rookie wide receiver Dee Eskridge is due back for this contest after being held out of the previous two with a concussion, and should step into the WR3 role over Freddie Swain. Tight end Gerald Everett continues to dominate the snaps over Will Dissly, but the Seahawks have targeted the tight end position on only 14% of the pass attempts thus far, leaving each of little utility in a standard game. 

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

San Francisco holds the eighth highest situation-neutral rush rate and 22^nd-ranked pace of play to start the season, which, when paired with a sixth-ranked drive success rate on offense, has led to the 12^th best time of possession per drive and eighth most points per drive. The overall goal of this offense is to eat up clock through methodical, sustained drives and control the tempo and flow of the game. The Niners struggles on defense while in zone coverages have carried over into 2021. With the injuries they currently have in the secondary, it is likely we see heavy zone rates in Week 4. 

Rookie running back Trey Sermon is clearly not viewed as a viable heavy snap rate running back by the coaching staff in San Francisco after the team handed fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell 19 running back opportunities in each healthy game and Sermon only 13 in a cake matchup for the run (Packers). Both running backs saw around 60% of the offensive snaps in their respective “featured” games, yet Sermon yielded nine opportunities to fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Mitchell has gotten in two limited practices with a non-contact jersey to start the week and is likely going to have to practice in full to prove his shoulder injury is healthy enough to play. The matchup on the ground yields a surprisingly low 4.195 net-adjusted line yards metric.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has averaged 31.67 pass attempts per game over the first three weeks of the season and is likeliest to land in the 28-34 range here. Brandon Aiyuk returned to the good graces of his coaching staff in Week 3, joining Deebo Samuel as borderline every snap wide receivers. Mohamed Sanu surprisingly usurped Trent Sherfield as the WR3 but it remains to be seen if that was game plan specific or a trend moving forward. The 70.69% completion rate and moderate 10.4 yards per completion allowed by the Seahawks defense lines up well with how we expect San Francisco to attack through the air. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

We’re likely to see the Niners dictate the overall pace here, with them also holding the best opportunity to see a bump to expected offensive plays run from scrimmage. They hold one of the top drive success rate deltas of any team this weekend (San Francisco ranks sixth on offense while Seattle ranks 30^th on defense) and should find success attacking the short to intermediate areas of the field. The game day status of George Kittle has a large influence to the way this game is likeliest to play out, but I tentatively expect him to go on Sunday. With below average offensive plays run from scrimmage, the Seahawks will be heavily reliant on efficiency and touchdowns in order to provide GPP-worthy scores. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Rams rank first in the NFL through three games in situation-neutral pace of play while the Cardinals pace of play has been largely affected by game script (as in, it should still rank towards the top of the league come season’s end)
• Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in situation-neutral pass rate, but both offenses have attacked the deep areas of the field through the air at great frequency
• No quarterback has a greater completion rate than Kyler Murray to start the year; Matthew Stafford is tied with some dude named Patrick Mahomes
• Kyler Murray ranks third amongst qualifying quarterbacks in number of pass attempts greater than 20 yards downfield while Matthew Stafford ranks sixth
• These quarterbacks rank second and third (behind only Russell Wilson) in yards per pass attempt

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

As we’ve explored in this space previously, the Cardinals continued their horizontally-spread offense into 2021 but have layered in more effective downfield routes through Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore. The overall function of this offense aims to wear down an opposing defense through moderate rush rates, pace, and long, sustained drives. Of note, the Cardinals have yet to score fewer than 31 points in any of their three games thus far, a staggering efficiency rate. This Rams defense will be their first true test of the season after playing the Titans, the Vikings, and the Jaguars.

Running backs Chase Edmonds and James Conner continue to operate in a loose committee, at a snap split of roughly 65/35. As we finally saw in Week 3, James Conner is the likeliest for goal line work (scored two touchdowns on 11 carries), but his role remains fairly low upside, particularly considering Kyler Murray’s red zone rushing prowess. Chase Edmonds has an established role in the pass game, having seen 17 targets through three games. The additional floor due to receiving work is tangible, but the upside remains capped due to the lack of goal line work. The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.2 net-adjusted line yards metric.

The most interesting matchup from a real world football perspective from this game is Jalen Ramsey’s likely shadow matchup with DeAndre Hopkins. Ramsey has allowed a meager four completions on 11 targets for 38 yards and no touchdowns in primary coverage. The effect of Ramsey can be understood by looking at the amount of targets opposing corner Darious Williams has seen in primary coverage this season: a whopping 26 targets through three games, which is an almost unheard of rate, if extrapolated over an entire season. Being targeted almost nine times a game in your primary coverage simply doesn’t happen in today’s NFL, yet here we are with Williams. With Ramsey on Nuk, expect A.J. Green to see a good deal of Williams, while Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore see the most David Long and safety coverage out of the slot.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams offense has been fairly balanced to start the season with a 56% situation-neutral pass rate. That rate spiked to 62% in their Week 3 contest in which starting running back Darrell Henderson missed so keep a close eye on his status leading up to this matchup (he is currently tentatively expected to play this week). Even if he does return, I expect the game environment to be the heaviest driving factor on this offense’s pass rates throughout the season. The biggest surprise so far has been the relative underperformance of this defense as they have allowed an average of 20.67 points per game against through three weeks (still ranks top 10 in the NFL, but a far cry from their dominant 2020 season). For example, the Rams have given up over 374 yards of total offense per game, with over 281 per game allowed through the air.

As mentioned earlier, Darrell Henderson is tentatively expected to return to action after missing one game with a rib injury. We should expect him to land around his pre-injury opportunity totals of 17 and 18, should he be fully healthy. Head coach Sean McVay did indicate that Sony Michel will still have a role in the offense so there remains a possibility Henderson’s touches are scaled back slightly in his first game back. The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.5 net-adjusted line yards metric but there shouldn’t be an opportunity for one running back to largely separate himself from the other here, leaving each highly dependent on touchdowns for fantasy utility.

The combination of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods has seen a whopping 55.9% of the total available targets from the Rams offense over the first three weeks of the season. That is absolutely massive. For comparison sake, the duo of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson has seen a 48.7% combined target rate and the duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Locket has seen a combined 56.3% target rate. Kupp and Woods are in elite company. Tyler Higbee saw his first game of under 100% snap rate in Week 3, playing 75% of the offensive snaps and ceding work to Johnny Mundt, but his 12.9% target market share and laughable 2.9 aDOT leave a lot to be desired, even in an expected back-and-forth affair. Behind those three, expect Van Jefferson and offseason addition DeSean Jackson to filter through as rotational pieces, each seeing a few downfield looks per game. The Rams as a team are right on par with the Bills when considering their typical target distribution, with only 12% of the targets through three weeks going to running backs and only 13% going to tight ends.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Aside from the robust game overview section above, both these teams rank in the top half of the league in drive success rate on offense, top eight in the league in adjusted sack rate allowed, and top 12 in the league in adjusted line yards. What does all that mean? It means both offenses should be relatively efficient with their opportunities, play at pace, attack the deep parts of the field through the air, and have a multitude of offensive playmakers capable of breaking off chunk gains. The likeliest scenario has this game developing into a shootout-style game flow sooner rather than later as each team is more than capable of putting up points in a hurry. The added benefit here is the blistering combined pace of these two teams, which should leave this game competing for most offensive plays run from scrimmage at the end of the week. Fantasy goodness all around!

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>

• The narrative around Ben Roethlisberger is exceedingly negative after a rough start to the season from a stats and film perspective.
• Green Bay presents Pittsburgh’s offense with their easiest on-paper matchup of the season, however that may be offset by the mounting injuries they are facing.
• Pittsburgh’s defense will likely funnel Green Bay to a more pass-happy approach and their pass rush (if TJ Watt is able to play) and scheme will likely cause the Packers to focus on short area passing.

How PittsBurgh Will Try To Win ::

Injuries in the receiving corps will have a large impact on how the Steelers are able to attack their easiest matchup of the season by most metrics. Pittsburgh’s first three opponents rank 2nd, 4th, and 11th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metrics — while Green Bay checks in at 26th and has at least two starters in danger of missing Week 4. Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are both very uncertain for this week and their availability will be critical for allowing Ben Roethlisberger a chance to bounce back from a horrendous start.

Pittsburgh has the 28th-graded run-blocking offensive line by PFF and is getting almost no push off the ball. When pressured, Ben Roethlisberger is showing his age and is currently PFF’s 39th-graded QB under pressure out of 42 qualifying passers. This is not a recipe for success. The Steelers will need to attack the short area of the field with throws — as they attempted to do last week — to move the ball and keep Ben from throwing away their chances early in the game. A few deep shots may be in order to Chase Claypool and James Washington, assuming the Packers will attempt to take away those short area throws. Ben will have to prove capable of making some plays down the field to have any chance of sustained offensive success early in this game. Otherwise, Pittsburgh will be forced into some long 3rd downs where he will face heavy pressure and is likely to make big mistakes that dig the Steelers an insurmountable hole. This is assuming the Packers make those necessary adjustments for this matchup — it should be noted that they played soft coverage and allowed the Lions to complete short area throws in a Week 2 matchup that was much more competitive than it should have been. If the Packers take that conservative route again, the Steelers should be able to move the ball in their desired mode — quick, short passes spread across their playmakers (hopefully with as many of them active and effective as possible).

How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::

Pittsburgh’s defense had an outstanding performance in an upset win over the Bills in Week 1. Since then, they have been put on skates in back-to-back home games by under the radar teams in the Raiders and Bengals. Without a doubt, the loss of all-pro edge rusher TJ Watt to a groin injury early against the Raiders (Watt was inactive for the Bengals game) had a huge impact on the outcome of those games. Watt “held out” for all of training camp as he was seeking a new contract — he was present but only participated in individual drills well into September. Players coming off of holdouts often take some time to get up to speed and are at risk of soft tissue injuries, which Watt is dealing with now. Watt is practicing on a limited basis to start the week and his presence and ability to be effective would certainly have an effect on how this game plays out and how the Packers attack it. The Packers are still missing their all-pro LT David Bakhtiari from his torn ACL at the end of last season and, while only allowing two sacks per game through three weeks, were exposed repeatedly by Nick Bosa on Sunday night in Week 3 and will have to deal with the same issues this week if the Steelers are at full strength.

This storyline will be critical to how the game plays out, as the Steelers present a clear pass-funnel defense with PFF’s 4th-graded rush defense and 30th-graded pass coverage unit through three weeks. Davante Adams is used as an extension of the run game via screen passes and short area passing — Adams saw a whopping 18 targets in a Week 3 win at San Francisco. That strategy should play perfectly against the Steelers, who blitz often and play a lot of man coverage. They do not have anyone who can jam Adams at the line of scrimmage without getting burned deep, so they will have to give him some cushion which should allow him to rack up easy catches and move the chains if they employ their usual approach. Aaron Jones is the clear lead back in Green Bay and possesses big-play potential on the ground and through the air — he will likely be used in space as the only other truly dynamic playmaker the Packers have rather than slamming him into a strong defensive front repeatedly. From a strategic standpoint, if the Steelers were to switch up from their usual defensive strategy — as they did in Week 1 at Buffalo — the smartest approach would be to jam Adams while also shading safety help to that side of the field and sending pressure at the Packers left side of their offensive line. If Watt is active, they could do this without blitzing at their normal rate, but if he is inactive or limited then Pittsburgh will need to dial up pressure in other ways so Rodgers doesn’t have all day to find openings. Adams moves around the formation frequently — aligning in the slot on 24.5% of his snaps — so even if Pittsburgh employs a strategy like that, the Packers will find ways to get the ball in his hands.  Selling out on Adams would leave the Packers other WRs with 1-on-1 matchups that they need to win quickly — which is not necessarily their strong point as an average group athletically. Marquez Valdez-Scantling would usually be the deep threat on the other side that takes the top off the defense and makes them pay for this strategy, but he left Week 3 with a hamstring injury which has his availability in doubt. He did not practice Wednesday and even if he is active on game day, a hamstring injury will make it difficult to ask him to repeatedly run deep routes. The Packers showed the ability in Week 1 to lay a complete egg if a talented defense takes away the things they want to do, and the Steelers could potentially present a similar challenge to what the Saints did in Week 1.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game presents some very interesting angles from a game flow perspective. Aaron Rodgers notoriously uses almost all of the play clock on most snaps, using that time to gather all of the information he can and checking into the optimal play when necessary. Ben Roethlisberger has been noticeably frustrated with the Steelers’ offensive play calling as they adjust to a new offensive coordinator, and with mounting injuries among skill players would seem unlikely to pick a road game at Lambeau Field as the time to push the tempo and give Aaron Rodgers more opportunities.

On the flip side of that, both defenses potentially present an incentive for their opponent to skew pass-heavy, a scenario that would raise the pace of the game and result in increased volume for both sides. Pittsburgh’s pass-funnel defense and poor run-blocking offensive line — the 28th-graded unit by PFF — present cases for both sides to air it out with their Hall-of-Fame QB. Which way this game skews will almost certainly depend on the status of the key injuries each team is dealing with, as noted earlier.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This game will likely be bypassed by most DFS players due to the reputations of both teams as run-heavy and defensive-minded
• Ingredients are here for this game to exceed expectations in certain game scenarios
• Denver is 3-0 but is now facing by far their toughest opponent, as their first three opponents are a combined 0-9 while Baltimore is 2-1 with their only loss coming in overtime
• Lamar Jackson presents a unique challenge for every defense he faces and will have an entirely different dynamic than the lower-tier QBs the Broncos have faced so far

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Baltimore is an elite organization that has had a solid start to the year but is on very uneven ground right now. Lamar Jackson is missing practices this week with a back injury and his absence would leave them in a world of hurt. After blowing their season opener to the Raiders in overtime, the Ravens won back-to-back thrillers against the Chiefs and Lions. This team could easily be 3-0 or 0-3 right now. Based on their overall level of performance, 2-1 seems pretty fair. Baltimore now travels to Denver and will play in their high altitude environment as they attempt to take control of the AFC North. 

Denver currently boasts the fifth-ranked defense in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, ranking in the top-10 in both run and pass metrics. However, the teams they have faced so far — the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets — are a combined 0-9 and ranked 14th, 29th, and 30th in offensive DVOA through three weeks. Baltimore’s dynamic rushing offense, led by Lamar Jackson, presents an entirely new challenge for Denver and will force them to approach things differently than they have to date. Denver has an extremely talented secondary but will be stressed by the extra attention they must give to the running game because they have to account for an extra player in Lamar Jackson. Through three weeks, Jackson leads the NFL in yards per completion and yards per carry. What that means is that every snap that the Ravens put the ball in Jackson’s hands, they are putting the defense in an extremely difficult situation. Through three games, over 60% of the Ravens offensive plays have been passes or Lamar Jackson runs.

The likely plan of attack for Baltimore will be an aggressive mindset defensively and a heavy dose of Lamar Jackson offensively. The Broncos boast the #1-graded pass coverage unit by PFF and have personnel that can handle man-to-man matchups as well as a coaching staff capable of putting together a complex scheme, making it unlikely that Baltimore attacks heavily with a downfield passing game. Lamar Jackson currently leads the league in average intended air yards, but that is likely a result of matchups (Lions and Raiders) and situations (trying to come back against the Chiefs). It is hard to see the Ravens forcing the issue early in this game with Jackson nursing a back injury and no clear matchup advantages in the passing game. A heavy dose of misdirection and run-pass option plays early on will likely be used to get the Broncos off balance and throw them out of the defensive rhythm they have fallen into through the first three weeks.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Denver has a plethora of solid offensive options, which keeps any of those options from emerging as a true “alpha” option or providing value in terms of certainty plus ceiling. Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant are all high level talents but are difficult to project from a fantasy standpoint based on the “spread the wealth” approach of Teddy Bridgewater and lack of commitment to a specific player from the coaching staff. K.J. Hamler was lost for the season to an ACL injury, which should slightly narrow the target distribution but will also shrink the field as he was the one true “field stretcher” with elite top end speed to stress a defense. The traditionally stout Baltimore defense is currently the 20th ranked unit by Football Outsiders DVOA metrics and PFF’s 23rd graded unit through three weeks. This ranking is significantly affected by the injuries that Baltimore is dealing with on the defensive side of the ball, but those issues are not going away anytime soon.

Baltimore’s defense is ranked fourth in adjusted line yards, while Denver’s offensive line is ranked 25th in the same metric. It is reasonable to believe that the Broncos will struggle to move the ball via the ground. Teddy Bridgewater has yet to turn the ball over this year and is unlikely to turn into a turnover machine against a Ravens defense that has only forced three turnovers through three games. With the strength of the Broncos being their defense and playing this game at home, it is likely that the Broncos will focus on ball control and staying in the game early daring the Ravens to become more aggressive and open themselves up to mistakes that let the Broncos take control.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Lamar Jackson and Teddy Bridgewater rank first and fourth, respectively, in average intended air yards. This nugget of information is the one thing that could allow this game to turn from a slugfest into a bit of a track meet. Both teams have some playmakers who, when given the opportunity, can turn it up a notch and make plays against anyone. With the Ravens likely taking a run-heavy approach (as they usually do) and the Broncos being short-handed in their receiving corps and unlikely to have consistent success in the running game, it is likely that this game turns into an old fashioned fist fight that will be won in the trenches and with the turnover battle. Neither offense has matchups or advantages that would give them a high likelihood of early offensive success and both teams are also built to take care of the ball and focus on not beating themselves. This is a recipe for an intriguing football game from a real life perspective, but one that is unlikely to provide fantasy fireworks.

DFS+ Interpretation ::