Kickoff Sunday, Oct 3rd 1:00pm Eastern

Commanders (
25) at

Falcons (
22.5)

Over/Under 47.5

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
10th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
28th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
25th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
30th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
21st DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
26th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
21st DVOA/21st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Who are the Atlanta Falcons? Because at this point, it is fairly apparent they aren’t even sure of that answer
  • Atlanta’s offense looks disjointed and lost, but when they figure it out, it is likely to hit like a ton of bricks based on the talent they have on that side of the ball
  • Washington’s offense has devolved into a predictable system based on personnel
  • Both of these teams have the talent on offense to generate production, it just needs to be more consistent and forward-thinking

How Washington Will Try To Win :

Washington holds the seventh-highest situation-neutral rush rate and the ninth-fastest situation-neutral pace of play through three weeks. Their defense has allowed a whopping 30.67 points per game, primarily on the backs of 307 pass yards allowed per game. They’re going to need to correct a couple of things before finding sustainable success: (1) tighten up the back end of their defense and limit the yards allowed after the catch, (2) become less one-dimensional in the run game, and (3) tighten up in the red zone. Until those come to fruition, we’re likely going to be targeting this team for plus game environments. One of the biggest problems lies with the failure of the offense to sustain drives. When this is paired with an increased pace of play, it puts a good deal of pressure on the defense, as evidenced by their 29th-ranked drive success rate allowed on defense.

On the ground, the offense is highly predictable and one-dimensional. The lack of targets flowing to starting running back Antonio Gibson allows opposing defenses to dedicate additional defenders to the box, making it difficult for the zone run scheme to be effective. The matchup with the Falcons yields a slightly above average 4.37 net-adjusted line yards metric and we should expect Antonio Gibson to approach 20 rush attempts in all but negative game scripts. Behind Gibson, expect JD McKissic to see increased snap rates and opportunity counts in shootouts and negative game scripts, but be relegated to a situational role in slugfests and positive game scripts.

The Football Team runs 11-personnel at the third-highest rate in the league through three weeks, and an absolutely absurd 81% of the targets thus far have flowed through the wide receiver position. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin has played all but two offensive snaps while tight end Logan Thomas has played every offensive snap to start the year. This gives these two guys in particular a massive weekly ceiling should the game environment dictate a boost to passing volume. That said, we know Washington would like to incorporate pace with high rush rates to start games. So, an increase in pass volume is almost entirely in the hands of their opponent. This makes betting on the game environment overall the best way to attack Washington’s pass game.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Another game down and we still have little to no clue what the end game looks like for this Falcons team. What we do know is Atlanta experimented with heavy perimeter snaps for “tight end” Kyle Pitts in Week 3, basically throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks. That brilliant idea was met with Adoree’ Jackson’s shadow coverage whilst in on perimeter snaps. Apparently, the threat of Olamide Zaccheaus and Tajae Sharpe isn’t enough to coax opposing defenses into more straight-up coverages, who knew? Okay, all joking aside, this is still a team largely searching for their identity on both sides of the ball. Washington is a clear pass-funnel defense, having allowed only 16.5 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs but 12.6 per game to opposing tight ends and a massive 54.5 per game to opposing wide receivers. Russell Gage has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday), so we should expect another week of Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, Mike Davis, Cordarrelle Patterson, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Tajae Sharpe as the primary skill players.

We mentioned the pass-funnel nature of the Football Team’s defense, which should serve to elevate the target expectations of both Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson. Davis has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps in every game thus far, seeing running back opportunity counts of 21, 16, and 16 (with 17 of those being targets). Patterson has seen exactly seven rush attempts in every game and has target totals of two, seven, and seven. Due to the loose committee split in snaps and opportunities, both Davis and Patterson would likely require multiple trips to the end zone to provide a meaningful fantasy score here. The matchup on the ground yields a slightly below average 3.98 net-adjusted line yards metric, but the primary utility of both of these backs remains through the air.

Check this out, real quick. Kyle Pitts has 101 total routes through three games, second at the “tight end” position. His 84.9% route participation rate ranks fourth at the position. He has seen a 33.3% slot snap rate and 76.2% of the total offensive snaps. Yet his 17 targets rank seventh at the position, his 134 air yards rank eighth, his yards after the catch rank 17th (sheesh!!!), and his yards per route run ranks 26th. As soon as this coaching staff figures out how to get Kyle Pitts in space, this entire offense should turn around. As of right now, it’s “Hey, Kyle, go run seven yards over there and stop,” which is vexingly preposterous. Now, check this out. Calvin Ridley holds a 47.9% team air yards share, which is good for only 82.7 air yards per game. That translates to, “the Falcons are not attacking deep with any level of frequency.” That assertion is backed up by Calvin Ridley’s grand total of two targets of greater than 20 yards downfield so far this year. Woof. His 8.6 aDOT and 3.4 average yards after the catch both rank in the bottom 20% of the league. The way to beat this Football Team defense is through the air to all levels of the field, but it remains to be seen when the Falcons will figure that part of their offense out.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Man, oh man, a wide range of outcomes alert. Both offenses have the pieces to put up points here and both defenses have struggled with communication issues and coverage lapses on the back end early in the season. That said, the Football Team is struggling through one-dimensionality with Taylor Heinicke at the helm and the Falcons have yet to find any semblance of offensive identity. This leaves us with one of the widest ranges of outcomes with respect to the likeliest game flows on the slate. This leaves me with actually quite a bit of interest in correlated pairings that bet on this game environment overwhelming compared to public perception, primarily surrounding Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and Logan Thomas. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Washington is 30th in time of possession, averaging 25 minutes per game
  • They’re 5th in seconds per play in neutral situations with 27.5 (per Brandon Gdula at numberFire)
  • Atlanta is 1st in seconds per play, 27.2
  • Atlanta averages 70.3 offensive snaps to Washington’s 60.7

Taylor Heinicke

  • Heinicke has played in 12 career games, receiving just 4 starts
  • Taylor Heinicke’s PFF grades in his four starts: 46.5 // 92.0 (losing to Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round last season) // 73.4 // 39.8
  • Statlines in starts: 26/44-306-1-1 passing & 6 – 46 – 1 rushing // 14/24-212-2-2 & 8-21-1 // 34/46-336-2-1 & 4-6-0 // 33/53-274-1-3 & 3-33-0
  • DK totals: 23.38 // 24.04 // 28.84 // 15.26
  • Atlanta is 28th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (25.2)

WAS Passing Attack

  • WAS has run 11 personnel on 79% of snaps in 2021, tied for 3rd with LAR
  • Team snap shares: Logan Thomas (100%) // Terry McLaurin (98.9%) // Dyami Brown (82.2%) // Adam Humphries (65%)
  • Team target shares: McLaurin (27.5%) // Humphries & Logan (15.4%) // Dyami (13.2%)
  • McLaurin’s notable DK totals in 31 games with Vegas totals < 50: 30.7 // 27.5 // 22 // 24.8 // 28.5 // 27 // 29 // 26.5
  • Notable DK totals for Humphries out of 77 career games: 18.4 // 15.8 // 15.3 // 17.9 // 19.1 // 17.4 // 28.9 // 20.2 // 19.4 // 15.6 // 22
  • Dyami has a 48.3 PFF grade and has scored a combined total 6.8 DK pts in 3 games
  • WR groups against Atlanta have averaged 40.2 DK ppg
  • Logan Thomas is the only TEs to play on 100% of team snaps through three weeks
  • Logan is averaging 4.7 targets per game
  • Atlanta ranks 27th in points allowed to the position with 16.5ppg
  • Two games in, they are 10th with eight DK points per game
  • Logan’s notable DK scores under Ron Rivera: 13.2 // 12 // 12.4 // 13.3 // 26.1 // 13.42 // 16 // 13.2 // 13.7

WAS RBs

  • Antonio Gibson’s team snap share ranks just above Myles Gaskin among all RBs (61.1%)
  • JD McKissic falls just above James Conner (42.2%)
  • In Week 1, Gibson had 5 targets to McKissic’s 1
  • After three full weeks, they are tied with 9 apiece
  • Gibson’s career DK totals: 17.4 // 9.3 // 12.8 // 5.5 // 9.9 // 39.6 // 17.4 // 22.5 // 13.5 // 21.8 // 9.5 // 10.1 // 22.8 // 14 // 12.2 // 6.4
  • McKissic’s notable DK totals since 2016: 20.3 // 23.2 // 25.7 // 10.6 // 17.9 // 17.2 // 14.4 // 10.9 // 10.6 // 11.5 // 16.2 // 10.3
  • RB rooms are averaging 23.9 DK ppg versus Atlanta

Matt Ryan

  • Matt Ryan’s seasonal DK ppg from 2017-2020: 15.9 // 24.4 // 21.3 // 19.1
  • In 2021: 15.4
  • Ryan’s DK points totals at home last year in games with 48+ points: 24.9 // 12.4 // 23.4 // 14.9 // 30.1
  • Ryan’s DK totals in 2021: 7.36 // 22.3 // 16.62
  • After a Week 3 shellacking at the hands of Josh Allen, Washington allows the most DK ppg to QBs with 30
  • Prior to Allen’s 40.22, Daniel Jones scored 29.46 & Justin Herbert scored 18.38

ATL Passing Attack

  • Atlanta has virtually even usage of 11 and 12 personnel (33% & 35%)
  • Washington is 31st in DK ppg to the WR position after getting torched by Buffalo (54.5)
  • Team snap share for Atlanta’s passing game: Calvin Ridley (87.4%) // Kyle Pitts (76.7%) // Olamide Zaccheaus (50.5%) // Hayden Hurst (47.1%) // Russell Gage (42.2%)
  • Target share: Ridley (24.4%) // Pitts (14.3%) // Zaccheaus (8.4%) // Gage (7.6%) // Hurst (5%)
  • Ridley’s 2020 DK points in games that Julio missed or left early: 19.7 // 0 // 24.6 // 14 // 17 // 29.4 // 35.3 // 20.3 // 11.6
  • Ridley’s 2021 DK totals: 10.1 // 19.3 // 14.1
  • Zaccheaus has played in 11 games. He has only twice produced DK scores of 4x his Week 4 salary (16.6 & 23.3)
  • Gage’s notable DK totals in 30 games: 16.2 // 23.4 // 16.6 // 18.76 // 17.8 // 25.2
  • Gage’s injury status is uncertain for Week 4
  • Among TEs, Pitts ranks 11th in snap share & 10th in target share
  • His 8.3 DK ppg rank 15th
  • Washington allows 12.6 DK ppg

ATL RBs

  • Mike Davis leads Cordarrelle Patterson in snap share (66.5% to 35.9%) & touches per game (16.7 to 11.3)
  • They are nearly even in targets with Patterson averaging 5.3 and Davis averaging 5.7
  • Patterson is averaging 16.3 DK ppg to Davis’s 11.5
  • Davis is one of 5 RBs with at 15 touches in each game, per 4 for 4’s TJ Hernandez
  • Washington is 7th in DK points against to the RB position (16.5)