Game Overview ::
By Mjohnson86 >>
- Matchups favor Tennessee on both sides of the ball, but injuries loom at key positions for Tennessee potentially dampening the prospects for an offensive explosion.
- The Jets have looked lost and overwhelmed on offense, but this matchup lines up as their best chance for offensive success so far this season.
- New York will feel pressure to put up a solid effort as Jets fans have quickly lost patience with their horrible start.
- Derrick Henry’s success early and the Jets ability to score first half points will dictate the flow of this game.
How TENNESSEE Will Try To Win ::
Tennessee enters this game with a 2-1 record and early control of their division. This is a team that has had five straight winning seasons and has made the playoffs each of the last two years. They know how to take care of business, have large goals down the road, and have a core of players who have been around for most of their recent run of success. While the matchups favor Tennessee on both sides of the ball, this game could easily fall into a “just get out with a win” situation for them rather than a “dominate in all phases” situation. Getting out of here with no further injury issues is the goal for the Titans, if at all possible.
The Titans have injuries in their receiving corps and would prefer to handle things by putting the ball in Derrick Henry’s belly early and building a solid lead, then spelling him frequently throughout the rest of the game and spreading the ball around to a variety of different skill position players; at least nine different players have been targeted in every Titans game this season. The Jets run defense is actually the lone bright spot on their team, ranking 13th in rush defense DVOA, but that is likely helped by the predictable, clock-killing nature of many of the runs they have faced so far this season. While it is a relative strength for the Jets (which isn’t saying much), it is far from being strong enough to deter the Titans from slamming it down their throats. The Titans will also likely try to mix in a few deep shots off play-action as the Jets secondary is the 26th-graded unit by PFF in pass coverage. The Titans won’t be worried about “wasting a down” on some plays that fall incomplete, as they will likely be efficient enough to do that but still move the ball consistently.
How new york Will Try To Win ::
The honeymoon is over for Robert Saleh and Zach Wilson. Offensively, the Jets have had about the worst possible start to the season you could imagine and the New York faithful are letting them hear about it in stadiums and in the media:
- Through three games, the Jets have totaled 20 total points with only THREE of those points coming in the first half of a game.
- Rookie QB and #2 overall pick Zach Wilson has thrown seven interceptions and taken 15 sacks through three games.
- The Jets offensive line is 31st in the NFL in adjusted sack rate and 23rd in adjusted-line yards failing to provide protection on pass plays and failing to give any sort of push to open up running lanes.
- Three Jets running backs have 14 or more carries this season and none of them rank in the top 50 RBs in the NFL in PFF rushing grade.
That list of negative data points is A LOT for one team. The good news is that the Jets will be playing at home in Week 4 against what is, by all accounts, the softest defense they have seen to date. Their first three opponents currently rank #1, #5, and #8 in defensive DVOA while the Titans enter Week 4 with the 28th ranked DVOA defense. There is also something to be said for the learning curve of a rookie QB and an expected delay in a new system taking root of what has been a historically downtrodden organization that has not made the playoffs since 2010. Hopefully, for their sake, they will find a turning point soon to spark this season into something productive that they can build on.
The first order of business for the Jets will be scoring some first half points and keeping Zach Wilson upright. The Titans enter the week with the 27th graded pass rush by PFF, which should relieve some pressure on the offensive line and allow the Jets to call plays more aggressively and let Wilson drop back on early downs more often. The Jets are not loaded with talent anywhere on their roster but their offensive line is an especially sorry bunch and their running game has shown zero signs of life. While the game plan and play-calling last week in Denver was painful to watch, it makes sense that the coaching staff went conservative with Wilson after a four interception performance against the Patriots the week before. It would also make sense for them to try to build his confidence back up this week against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Titans play the 7th highest rate of Cover-1 (man coverage) in the league, so there will be opportunities for the Jets to let Wilson attempt some downfield shot plays and he should be able to see things open more easily as opposed to being confused by the more complex schemes he has seen so far this season.
The Jets will not abandon the running game altogether, but they should have a more aggressive mindset than what we have seen so far this season. As noted above, they have only scored three first half points in three games so their focus for winning this game is simply putting some points on the board early so that they can have a chance to compete in the second half of the game. The Jets don’t really have an offensive “strength,” so their best chance of getting on the scoreboard early is by attacking the relative weakness of the Titans’ pass defense.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
The Titans will likely try to impose their will with Derrick Henry as their offensive centerpiece early in the game. How efficient he is able to be will likely have a significant effect on how this game plays out. If Henry is able to run all over the Jets early, the Titans will likely be able to finish off drives with touchdowns and build a sizable early lead. In that scenario, Wilson will once again be put in difficult and predictable situations that will make scoring a much more difficult task for the Jets. That would allow the Titans to take their foot off the gas and likely limit the snaps and touch counts of their offensive stars early in the second half.
The other way this game could play out is a scenario where the Titans are without the perimeter threats of Julio and AJ Brown, and the Jets sell out to stop the run and are able to slow the Titans offense early. With the game remaining close, the Jets can let Wilson attack in a more aggressive and less predictable fashion than last week which should lead to some early Jets points. If this were to happen, it will force the Titans to play with more urgency and also extend how deep into the game they will need to keep their stars in and be aggressive in their use of them. If the Jets score 10 first half points, the Titans aren’t going to just pump the breaks in the 3rd quarter with a 20-10 lead.
The game flow for this game depends squarely on two things:
- How efficient is Derrick Henry early in the game?
- Can the Jets score 10 points in the first half?
How you feel about those two questions should dictate how you approach this game. Ironically, a true Derrick Henry “blow up” spot is probably more likely if he struggles early on.
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- After facing what’re shaping up to be three of the NFL’s top defenses in CAR, NE, & DEN in Wilson’s first three starts, the Jets finally get a little relief with a TEN defense that ranks 28th in DVOA and has allowed 38, 30, & 16 points
- The Jets have scored just 20 points on the season
- The Jets have an implied total 2 points less than any other home team on the slate
- TEN faced the 2nd highest amount of passes in 2020, allowing the 4th most pass yds & 2nd most pass TDs
- 2021 QBs vs TEN: Kyler (289:4:1) // Russ (343:2) // Wentz (194:0)
- After 258 yds vs CAR, Wilson has thrown for just 210 & 160 yds vs NE & DEN
- After intercepting the 10th most passes in 2020, TEN has just one so far in 2021
- Wilson has thrown 7 INT already
- Wilson lost his stud LT Mekhi Becton in W1, and has been sacked 6, 4, & 5 times
- TEN has 7 sacks on the season, but the 6th most pressures (35) per PFR
- Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
- WRs vs TEN in 2021: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24), Moore (10.8) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21), Metcalf (11.3) // Pittman (13.3), Pascal (5.1)
- Targets: Davis (7, 5, 10) // Moore (4, 8, 6) // Berrios (7, 11, 3)
- Corey Davis in 2021: 5:97:2 // 2:8 // 5:41
- Davis’s percentage of Wilson’s pass yds by week: 37.6% // 3.8% // 25.6%
- Rush att: Johnson (4, 12, 3) // Carter (4, 11, 9) // Coleman (9, 5, -)
- Targets: Johnson (3, 0, 5) // Carter (2, 3, 3) // Coleman (0, 0, -)
- RB total yds vs TEN: Edmonds (106), Conner (53) // Carson (31) // Taylor (72), Hines (79)
- Tanny passing: 212:1:1 // 347:0 // 197:3:2
- Tanny rushing: 17:1 // 27 // 56
- QBs vs NYJ: Darnold (279:1, rush TD) // Mac Jones (186:0) // Teddy (235:0, 24 rush yds)
- NYJ rank 18th in defensive pass DVOA
- Since last year, the game scores of his 8 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16
- As a Road Favorite with TEN, Tanny has five scores of sub-20 DK pts, and two scores of 31.5 & 28.4
- Targets: Brown (8, 9, 2) // Julio (6, 8, 4) // Rogers (6, 5, 2)
- Westbrook-Ikhine received 4 tg and caught a TD after Brown left the game early
- Top two WRs vs NYJ: Moore (6:80), Robby (1:57:1) // Meyers (4:38), Agholor (3:21) // Sutton (5:37), Patrick (5:98)
- The Jets have faced the 2nd fewest WR targets through three weeks
- AJ Brown as a Road Favorite implied for 26+ pts: 25.4 // 12.4 // 27.2 // 34.1 DK pts
- Julio Jones as a Road Favorite implied for 26+ pts: 4/11 games of 25+ DK pts & 4/11 games sub-15 DK pts since 2014
- Brown as a favorite of at least 7: 12.4 // 27.2 // 15.4 // 34.1 DK pts
- Julio as a favorite of at least 7: 17.7 // 36.2 // 26.7 // 22.6 // 6 // 8.4 // 29.6 DK pts (since 2014)
- Henry’s touches in 2021: (17 att, 4 tg) // (35 att, 6 tg) // (28 att, 3 tg)
- RBs vs NYJ (rush yds, rec yds): CMC (98, 89) // Harris (62, 2), White (20, 45) // Gordon (61, 21), Williams (29, 33)
- NYJ rank 13th in defensive rush DVOA
- Henry has scored 26+ DK pts in 9/20 of his games with Tannehill as a Favorite: 32.5 // 27.6 // 26.9 // 42.1 // 30 // 43.4 // 39.2 // 28.2 // 39
- He has also scored under 10 DK pts in 5 of the other 11 games
- Henry has 4.9, 11.5, & 6.1 rec DK pts in the first three weeks