Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- The Saints have thrown under 23 times in all three games
- Sean Payton is using intelligent design to limit Jameis Winston
- Alvin Kamara has a wider range of outcomes than in previous seasons
- Saquon Barkley is underpriced for his role, in a bad matchup
How new orleans Will Try To Win ::
Sean Payton is a better coach than Bill Belichick and it might not be that close (note from JM: I beg to differ 🤣). The Saints and Patriots found themselves in similar positions entering Week 3. Both teams had recently lost a top five all-time QB and are rebuilding after decades of success. Sean Payton only threw the ball 21 times, effectively preventing his turnover prone QB from losing him the game and allowing him to ride his best player (Kamara) to victory. Bill Belichick let his rookie QB chuck it 51 times into a strong Saints defense, giving up a defensive TD early in the third quarter with the game still in reach.
Sean Payton is adapting as well as any coach in NFL history to the loss of such a significant piece of his offense. The Saints have thrown the ball 21, 22, and 21 times through the first three weeks. Amazing! There might be a game this year where a team throws 65 times. This isn’t John Fox throwing 20 times a game either, it’s a highly intelligent approach to maximize this roster’s winning potential. Payton is smart enough to know that letting Jameis Winston chuck it all over the yard is fun, but it doesn’t win games. He knows letting Jameis drop back is like raising your bet in Blackjack, and Payton only wants to do it when the deck is hot. Until then, he is happy to ride his borderline top 10 defense and elite RB to victory. Payton is smart enough to take this approach until knocked out of it, rather than trying to attack a defense’s relative weakness, potentially allowing Jameis to lose games. Don’t be surprised if, in a high leverage spot later in the season, Payton comes out firing with Jameis after putting all these low passing totals on film. That’s the level Payton is on compared to other coaches.
The Giants offer no reason for Payton to deviate from his preferred approach. Expect the Saints to start the game featuring Kamara unless forced to go a different direction. They will continue to limit Winston’s pass attempts and another 20-25 attempt game is a real possibility. The Saints will be happy to win this way until forced to change, or they change on their own for surprise value.
How new york Will Try To Win ::
The 0-3 Giants are asking themselves the same question: how can we try to win this game? “Boss, how can I figure out one of the best designed defenses in the league, in time for a Sunday victory?” says Jason Garrett, as he game plans by pacing back and forth beneath a 10-foot painting of Jerry Jones. Maybe that isn’t the way Jason Garrett game plans, but you wouldn’t know it from watching the Giants offense through three weeks. They have been highly reactionary, and Garrett continues to try and “keep everyone involved” rather than go after the defense he’s playing in a creative and unique way.
Expect the Giants to try and stay balanced, involving everyone on offense for as long their defense holds up, before eventually skewing pass heavy to try and catch up late. Garrett is likely to turn pass heavy once the game is already decided, rather than early enough to still give the Giants a chance at victory.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
This game opened with a miniature total of 41.5 and has held steady throughout the early week. A Saints home game with such a low total shows the dramatic difference in this year’s squad. Payton has limited Winston to under 23 attempts for three straight games, and there is no reason he won’t make it a fourth. The Saints should pull ahead slowly, while limiting Winston’s chances to hurt them, eventually building a multiple score lead in the fourth quarter. Expect the Giants to struggle to protect the QB behind a bad O-line while trying to run a bad scheme. They will stay balanced at first, before abandoning the run late once the game is already out of reach.
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- The Saints just returned from 28 days on the road following an evacuation of the city
- This will be the first game in the Superdome at full capacity since their WC playoff loss in the 2019 season
- The Giants have scored under 20 offensive pts in 12/19 games with Garrett as OC
- Jones DK scores as Road Dog with Jason Garrett: 9.7 // 11.1 // 9.2 // 22.7 // 12.9 // 14.4
- In 19 Jason Garrett games, Jones or Colt McCoy have scored 1 TD or less in 13 of them
- NOR has allowed 0, 2, & 1 TDs to Rodgers, Darnold, & Mac Jones, and was missing an abundance of defensive starters and coaches during the CAR game
- The only significant rushing threat at QB NOR faced in 2020 was Jalen Hurts, who rushed for 106 yds on 18 att
- Jones rushing in 2021: 6:27:1 // 9:95:1 // 8:39
- WR targets: Shepard (9, 10, 3) // Slayton (7, 6, 1) // Golladay (6, 8, 5)
- With Shep & Slayton leaving W3 early with injuries, Johnson, Toney, & Board received 7, 3, & 2 targets respectively
- Only TB & WAS have faced more WR targets than NOR
- Top WRs vs NOR: Adams (5:56) // Moore (8:79:1) // Meyers (9:94), Bourne (6:96:1)
- Saquon has 52/66 RB touches (39/49 att, 13/17 tg) after receiving 23/26 touches vs ATL
- Saquon’s targets with Garrett: 9 // 3 // 3 // 7
- Only two teams allowed fewer RB rec yds in 2020; CMC had 5:65 through the air in W2
- The only RB over just 20 rush yds vs NOR thus far is CMC and it took him 24 att to reach just 72 yds
- RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7)
- That’s 11 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 56 games
- 11/11 scored a TD /// 4/11 scored 2 TDs /// 8/11 had 5+ rec /// 11/11 had 6+ DK rec pts
- Of the three without 5 rec, one had 82 yd TD, one caught a WR pass TD, one had 28 rush att, and all three scored 2 TDs
- Saquon’s 22 DK pts came all the way back in 2018, when he finished with 10:44:1, 6:56
- Each QB vs NYG has thrown 2 TDs
- Jameis has 5, 0, & 2 TDs in three games
- The Giants are allowing an average 7.1 yds/att on the 8th most passes faced
- Jameis Winston has thrown the ball 20, 22, & 21 times with a season high of 148 yds
- With Jameis only throwing 63 passes on the season for just 387 total yds, the best WR performances in three games have been Harris’s 2:72:1 in W1 (thanks to deep TD), and Callaway’s 4:40:1 in W3
- That’s just 15.2 & 14 DK pts as the top NOR WR scores in 3 games without Thomas & Tre’Quan
- #1 WR vs NYG: Jeudy (6:72, left early) // McLaurin (11:107:1) // Ridley (8:61)
- Other WRs vs NYG: Hamler (3:41), Patrick (4:39:1) // Humphries (7:44) // Zaccheaus (3:32:1)
- WR targets: Callaway (2, 4, 5) // Harris (2, 2, 3) // Stills (3 in first game)
- NYG allowed the 4th most RB rec yds in 2020; McKissic & Patterson have each already recorded 80+ rec yds vs NYG
- Kamara has a team-high 14 targets with two rec TDs in 2021
- The Giants have only faced split-backfields in 2021 (DEN, WAS, ATL), but have allowed combined total yds to those RBs of 159, 166, 172
- Kamara’s only game with 20+ att in his first four years came in his 6 TD game vs MIN, in which by the end NOR was trying to help him break the record
- Through three games in 2021, Kamara already has two games of 20+ att (20, 24)
- Tony Jones has just 5 rush att since his 11 in the W1 blowout over GB
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