Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Quarterback Aidan O’Connell will start his first game of the season for the Raiders.
- These teams both grade out as top-5 units in run defense by PFF’s grades through five weeks, which will make sustaining drives difficult for both offenses.
- Despite a likely run-heavy game plan, the Steelers should have some opportunities for big plays in the passing game.
- All of the Raiders losses in 2024 have been by 12 or more points.
- 30 or fewer total points were scored in three of the five games Pittsburgh has played this season.
How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
The Steelers have lost their last two games after starting the year with a three game winning streak. Both of their losses have been by three points. The Steelers formula is very clear as they want to run the ball and play hard-nosed defense and grind out their opponents. Pittsburgh currently ranks 28th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) despite ranking 23rd in rushing offense DVOA. This is an eye opening statistic because it outlines how the Steelers are willing to stick with the run even when they are not being efficient in doing so. Another interesting observation about the 2024 Steelers has been the fact that they have continued to run the ball at such a high rate despite running back Jaylen Warren battling injuries all season and basically being a non-factor. We expected the Steelers to run the ball at a high rate this year, but part of that expectation was around the fact that they had Warren and Najee Harris to each touch the ball often and wear defenses down, with Cordarrelle Patterson (who is also injured) waiting in the wings. It isn’t necessarily surprising that they’ve stuck with their philosophy despite the injuries and lack of efficiency, but it is telling and notable.
As for their actual game plan, the Steelers will extensively utilize their running backs and have some designed runs for Fields. They will still throw the ball, however, and they may have a good deal of success doing so against a Raiders defense that has struggled on the back end this year. Over the last three weeks the Raiders gave up a massive game to Andy Dalton and the Panthers, were a questionable holding call away from giving up a huge game to Deshaun Watson and the Browns, and surrendered the best game of Bo Nix’s young career after he looked overwhelmed for the first four weeks. In last week’s game against Denver, the Broncos had a lot of success through the air and actually missed on a couple of wide open opportunities for big plays that don’t show up on the stat sheet. While Pittsburgh will throw at a low rate, there will certainly be opportunities for some big plays and the Steelers are likely to take some downfield shots. After a week in which star receiver George Pickens was mostly unused and the team lost in primetime, it would stand to reason that they will dial up some shots this week against a defense with a lot of poor film covering downfield and PFF’s 32nd graded coverage unit. Justin Fields ranked 5th out of all QBs in PFF grade on throws of 20+ yards in 2023 and ranks 7th in that same category this season. This feels like a game with a high likelihood of Fields and Pickens connecting for a long touchdown as the Raiders key in on the Steelers running game and leave their secondary exposed on the back end. Pittsburgh will not have a high volume passing attack and they like to spread things out – seven different receivers saw multiple targets on only 28 pass attempts last week with only Pickens being targeted more than five times – but they will take some calculated shots this week with a higher than normal chance of success.
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