Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 4:25pm Eastern

Lions (
27.75) at

Cowboys (
24.75)

Over/Under 52.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Detroit enters Week 6 off their bye and travels to Dallas for a rematch of a controversial game from Week 17 of 2023.
  • Dallas has a 3-2 record right now, but has serious questions on the defensive side of the ball and has struggled with higher end competition.
  • By DVOA ranks, the Lions rushing offense is 2nd in the league while the Cowboys rushing defense is 31st in the league.
  • The Dallas offense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per carry and they are facing a Lions defense that faces the third highest opponent pass rate in the league.
  • These two offenses are among the fastest paced in the league.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The preferred method of attack for the Lions is an aggressive one that starts with their running game and builds from there. Detroit has the best running back duo in the NFL, with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and an offensive line that has the best adjusted line yards per attempt in the NFL through five weeks. Said another way, their line is the best in the league and their backs are capable of taking those big holes and making the most of them. Detroit will take shots downfield and they will open it up and let Jared Goff chuck the rock when necessary, but they know their bread is buttered on the ground and you can expect them to plan accordingly. 

This will be especially apparent this week as the Lions travel to Dallas to face the 31st ranked run defense of the Cowboys. Through five games, Dallas has faced three offenses (CLE, NYG, PIT) ranked in the bottom-10 of the league in rushing offense DVOA and two offenses (NO, BAL) ranked as top-10 rushing offenses. In the three games against the “bad” rushing offenses, they surrendered 70 rushing yards per game and allowed 16 points per game. In the two games against the “good” rushing offenses, Dallas allowed 232 rushing yards per game and 36 points per game. Detroit’s offense is ranked 2nd in the league in rushing DVOA (BAL is #1, NO is #10). Sure, these are small samples, but the Lions have an elite running game and we have multiple games to see how the Cowboys are simply not equipped to slow it down. The Lions RBs combine for about 35 opportunities (targets plus carries) per game and this week should be no different, with a strong chance for them to go over 40 in an uptempo game against a soft matchup. The main thing that could limit those opportunities would be if they were overly efficient and breaking off big plays, therefore shortening drives. For our purposes, however, that is a good outcome as well. One thing that stood out in researching this game is the fact that Gibbs has not been targeted in either of the last two Lions games. Coming out of their bye, we should expect getting him back involved as a receiver to be a point of emphasis.

Through the air, Detroit’s All-Pro WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and his ascending teammate Jameson Williams have dominated the team’s targets, combining for a 52% target share through four games. Second-year tight end Sam LaPorta has been less involved than expected to start the year, but a concerted effort to get him going coming out of the bye would make a lot of sense. Jared Goff is always going to be best when targeting the short to intermediate areas of the field where ARSB, LaPorta, and his RBs primarily work, but the emergence of Williams as a big-play threat has allowed Goff to showcase his underrated ability on downfield throws. The Dallas defense was already struggling but is now playing without DeMarcus Lawrence and likely Micah Parsons. Detroit scored 42 points in their last game prior to their bye and if they can execute in the red zone and avoid turnovers they may be able to come close to that this week.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

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