XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
I, for one, am glad for all of these International games as it gives us more Showdowns, and we get another one this week with the Jags playing the Bears in London. This one has a 44.5 total with Chicago favored by a point and a half – kind of an interesting total with the Jags implied for about 21.5 points since they’ve only scored above 20 once on the season and Chicago has only allowed over 20 once this season. Does Jacksonville deserve such an aggressive total? Let’s see if we can find out.
Chicago
The Chicago backfield started off the season poorly with D’Andre Swift running for 30, 18, and 20 yards in their first three games with under 2 yards per carry. Then he broke out against the Rams in Week 4 and delivered a strong follow-up performance against the Panthers in Week 5. Of course, the Rams and Panthers are two of the worst defenses in football…this is still a mediocre offensive line in Chicago (depends where you look but it generally ranked in the bottom 20% of the league), and while Jacksonville’s defense is not what you’d call imposing, they’ve been better than the Rams and Panthers, at least on the ground. Also, keep in mind that Swift’s goal-line usage has been lacking – he has five carries inside the 5 yard line this season, while RB2 Roschon Johnson has four, and RB3/vulture back Khalil Herbert has another four of his own. If Swift’s going to score, he’s most likely going to need to score from a bit farther out. I wanted to like Swift in this matchup – and I don’t hate him – but I’m not especially enamored of him, either. He’s just kind of “fine,” but I see more ways he can fail than ways he can smash and think he’s likely to be a bit on the over-owned side. I’ll play him but will almost certainly be coming in underweight the field. As for Roschon, he’s getting some goal-line work, but what he isn’t seeing is much passing game work (just one game with any targets). He’s a hard sell at $5,200. I generally want my “RB2 in Showdown” plays to be a little cheaper than that.
In the passing game, let’s first start by noting that Caleb Williams got a lot of crap in Chicago’s first few games for not immediately smashing right out of the gate. In his last two games, though, he’s thrown for a perfect 3:0 TD:INT ratio with a passer rating over 100. Again, they’ve played the Rams and the Panthers, but signs of life are encouraging. DJ Moore leads the team with 42 targets on 170 dropbacks and of course has enormous per-target upside – he blew up last week with a 5/105/2 line and is capable of that kind of performance at any time. At the high end of the price range, I prefer him to Swift as the matchup here tilts the Bears toward the air. Behind Moore, we do start to get a little thin – there are some talented guys here but Williams has passed under 30 times in each of Chicago’s three victories, so volume starts to get tricky. Keenan Allen is generally a guy I avoid except when I can reasonably project a lot of volume. Allen works in the short areas of the field (just 8.1 yards per catch so far this season) so it’s hard for him to find a ceiling, even in Showdown, without catching at least 5-6 balls; even if he finds the end zone, a line of 5/40/1 might be in the optimal but is no guarantee. Rookie Rome Odunze has a scary floor and is definitely behind Moore for me but his role at least gives him more per-target upside. It’s a great passing game matchup, and I want to play a Bears pass catcher on most of my lineups – preferably Moore, then Odunze, then Allen last of the primary wide receivers. The Bears have not really employed a WR4 when the primary guys are healthy.
At tight end, Cole Kmet has shaken off a timeshare and booted Gerald Everett back to the bench. Kmet has played 81%, 90%, and 84% in the last three games. Kmet feels like a better Keenan Allen to me, in that he’s cheaper and has some of the same “safety valve” function in the offense but has more per-target upside. Everett has been relegated to a punt option, and then TE3 Marcedes Lewis who has yet to see a target this season.
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