Bucs (

22.5) at
Saints (

19)

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Saints QB Derek Carr is expected to miss multiple weeks with an oblique injury suffered in the fourth quarter of the team’s Week 5 loss to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. 
• A litany of additional primary pieces joined Carr as DNPs Wednesday, including RB Alvin Kamara (hip/hand), TE Taysom Hill (rib), S Will Harris (hamstring), WR Rashid Shaheed (hip), OG/C Lucas Patrick (chest), and OG/C Cesar Ruiz (knee).
• HC Dennis Allen confirmed Wednesday that Spencer Rattler will start for the Saints.
• The Saints have allowed just ONE passing touchdown through five games.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Buccaneers continue with a predictable game plan in most weeks, typically aiming to generate disruption on defense through aggressive tendencies, unique blitzes, and heavy zone rates while carrying a solid pass rate over expectation (PROE) value on offense due to the struggles of the run game. Tampa Bay currently ranks third in PROE, have an offensive line blocking to just 1.62 yards before contact per attempt (19^th), and have a lead back averaging 3.7 yards per carry after the team averaged 3.6 yards per carry a season ago (Bucky Irving is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, inflating the team numbers through five weeks). A 29^th-ranked pace of play (31.5 seconds per play) has held total pass volume to a middling 30.6 pass attempts per game, so while the Buccaneers have elevated PROE values, their total offensive volume has required the right game environment to push them. That is highly unlikely to occur in this spot considering the current state of the Saints.

On the ground, the Buccaneers have one of the better on-paper matchups through advanced metrics. The Saints have allowed the third-most yards before contact per attempt (2.65), behind only the Bills and Commanders. That said, their linebacker corps is one of the most athletic units in the league with Pete Werner, DeMario Davis, and Paulson Adebo, leading to a moderate 4.4 yards per carry and just over 105 yards allowed on the ground per game. And then there’s the poor run-blocking metrics from the Buccaneers, their borderline extreme PROE values, and the fact that the team has largely refused to give more work to its most efficient back (Irving). That said, there is a potential path to increased volume here if the Buccaneers are able to control the game environment with their defense against a rookie fifth-round quarterback in his first NFL start. Rachaad White has not seen more than 13 opportunities since Week 1, which is partly due to game environments and is partly due to the emergence of Irving as a true injection of athleticism on the ground. Irving currently ranks ninth in breakaway rush rate at 9.1% but has yet to see more than 10 carries in a game. Add it all up and we’re likeliest to see this backfield remain a head-scratching timeshare in the immediate future.

The Saints run near-equal rates of Cover-1, Cover-2, and Cover-3 on defense and are allowing 0.41 fantasy points per dropback or less from all primary splits (man, zone, single-high, and two-high). To put that number into perspective, they are joined by only the Jets and Browns as teams to allow 0.41 fantasy points per dropback from all four major defensive alignment and coverage splits this season. In other words, this pass defense has been really, really good through five games. A lot of that has been due to allowing just one passing touchdown all season, which is truly remarkable, but the point remains – this team is not a glaring on-paper matchup through the air. Furthermore, the Buccaneers are averaging just 30.6 pass attempts per game behind one of the slowest offenses in the league, meaning play volume could be an issue in this spot. Finally, Baker Mayfield is targeting wide receivers at a modest 63.2% rate, which ranks near the middle of the pack (14^th). To back those numbers up, Mike Evans has one game this season over seven targets and Chris Godwin has been between six and nine targets in every game, and that is with an injury-forced rotation at the WR3 position between Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer, and Sterling Shepard. 

How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::