Kickoff Thursday, Oct 10th 8:15pm Eastern
49ers ( 26) at
Hawks ( 22.5)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 6 begins with the 49ers traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in a 47.5 total game in which San Francisco is favored by 3.5. The 49ers have had a frustrating start to the season. They’re 2-3, though all three losses were by less than a touchdown and they have a positive point differential. Seattle, meanwhile, jumped out to a 3-0 start before losing to the Lions on the road (nothing to be ashamed of) and the Giants at home (okay, definitely something to be ashamed of). The 49ers have, of course, absorbed quite a few injuries on offense, while Seattle has thus far been healthy, which could explain some of San Francisco’s struggles. The 49ers are basically back to full health now except for Christian McCaffrey, who won’t be back this week but hopefully will return soon.
Seattle
On the Seahawks side, the backfield clearly belongs to Kenneth Walker. Walker has generally been viewed as a 2-down back but the Seahawks talked about getting him more involved in the passing game this preseason and this is one of the rare preseason storylines that has come true. Through three games, Walker has 16 targets after seeing 37 in 15 games last year. Last week, Seattle fell behind early, leading to Walker only getting five carries, but he did get a career-high 8 targets and played a season-high 67% of the snaps. He’s not quite a bell cow in that his snap share is still hovering in the 60s, but the passing game role gives him some significant insulation from the game script risk he carried in his first two seasons. The matchup here is not great, but it’s important to remember that running backs can always find their way to multi-touchdown games (witness Walker scoring three times against the Lions elite run defense in Week 4 on just 12 carries). There’s nothing to point to him as an exceptional play, but he’s solid in all formats and (obviously) becomes stronger in builds predicated on the Seahawks upsetting the 49ers. Behind Walker is Zack Charbonnet, who played well in two games when Walker missed time. Charbs is now priced like an RB2 again and he’s had 5 targets in each of the last two games with Walker active, so he does carry some upside, especially if you think the 49ers win. Walker and Charbonnet are best in opposing game scripts, so while I wouldn’t completely rule out playing them together, I’d try to use rules to avoid having too much of the pairing, and I don’t think I’d play Charbonnet in Walker-captained lineups.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, Seattle trots out DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN), and Tyler Lockett at wide receiver. I just wrote this up two weeks ago, talk about Déjà vu. Let’s review: Metcalf is an awesome player but his target share is a modest 21.6% – not great for a WR1. That leaves him reliant on big plays and/or touchdowns, and while $9k is a nice price for Metcalf, that has to be taken in the context of the slate in which there are many strong options at the higher end of the price range. He’s fine but overpriced for his volume. JSN is seeing a similar target share with less upside per target, and he’s now $7k (he was $6.6k against the Lions while Metcalf was over $10k). JSN brings a high floor due to running high catch rate routes, but that also leaves him dependent on a lot of volume in order to find upside, and he’s also right around a 20% target share. Eesh. Lockett is no longer as explosive as he used to be but I think he still has upside. At $5,400, he’s my favorite Seattle pass catcher when price is considered. Metcalf’s clearly the most talented guy in the Seattle WR trio but I think it’s closer than the prices indicate, and while I’ll have exposure to all of them, I’ll likely have the most of Lockett due to the value of his price. Jake Bobo will play a few rotational WR snaps and can be ignored outside of MME punt plays.
At tight end, I was half right, and half wrong last time on the Noah Fant/Pharaoh Brown roles. Fant has played fewer snaps in the games since Brown returned from injury, but we’ve also been seeing Fant’s role trend up while Brown’s trends down. In the past three games, Fant has snap shares of 44%, 57%, and most recently 69%, while Brown has gone 47% // 31% // 14%. I thought Brown might eat more into Fant’s workload but we haven’t really seen that, and that revives my interest in Fant as a cheap value option at just $3k. Seattle hasn’t really passed a lot to their tight ends this year (just 18 targets to Fant on the season on 199 Geno Smith dropbacks), but we’re going to need some sub-kicker value options on this slate and Fant looks like one of the strongest.
San Francisco
Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 9:30am Eastern
Jaguars ( 23.25) at
Bears ( 21.75)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
I, for one, am glad for all of these International games as it gives us more Showdowns, and we get another one this week with the Jags playing the Bears in London. This one has a 44.5 total with Chicago favored by a point and a half – kind of an interesting total with the Jags implied for about 21.5 points since they’ve only scored above 20 once on the season and Chicago has only allowed over 20 once this season. Does Jacksonville deserve such an aggressive total? Let’s see if we can find out.
Chicago
The Chicago backfield started off the season poorly with D’Andre Swift running for 30, 18, and 20 yards in their first three games with under 2 yards per carry. Then he broke out against the Rams in Week 4 and delivered a strong follow-up performance against the Panthers in Week 5. Of course, the Rams and Panthers are two of the worst defenses in football…this is still a mediocre offensive line in Chicago (depends where you look but it generally ranked in the bottom 20% of the league), and while Jacksonville’s defense is not what you’d call imposing, they’ve been better than the Rams and Panthers, at least on the ground. Also, keep in mind that Swift’s goal-line usage has been lacking – he has five carries inside the 5 yard line this season, while RB2 Roschon Johnson has four, and RB3/vulture back Khalil Herbert has another four of his own. If Swift’s going to score, he’s most likely going to need to score from a bit farther out. I wanted to like Swift in this matchup – and I don’t hate him – but I’m not especially enamored of him, either. He’s just kind of “fine,” but I see more ways he can fail than ways he can smash and think he’s likely to be a bit on the over-owned side. I’ll play him but will almost certainly be coming in underweight the field. As for Roschon, he’s getting some goal-line work, but what he isn’t seeing is much passing game work (just one game with any targets). He’s a hard sell at $5,200. I generally want my “RB2 in Showdown” plays to be a little cheaper than that.
In the passing game, let’s first start by noting that Caleb Williams got a lot of crap in Chicago’s first few games for not immediately smashing right out of the gate. In his last two games, though, he’s thrown for a perfect 3:0 TD:INT ratio with a passer rating over 100. Again, they’ve played the Rams and the Panthers, but signs of life are encouraging. DJ Moore leads the team with 42 targets on 170 dropbacks and of course has enormous per-target upside – he blew up last week with a 5/105/2 line and is capable of that kind of performance at any time. At the high end of the price range, I prefer him to Swift as the matchup here tilts the Bears toward the air. Behind Moore, we do start to get a little thin – there are some talented guys here but Williams has passed under 30 times in each of Chicago’s three victories, so volume starts to get tricky. Keenan Allen is generally a guy I avoid except when I can reasonably project a lot of volume. Allen works in the short areas of the field (just 8.1 yards per catch so far this season) so it’s hard for him to find a ceiling, even in Showdown, without catching at least 5-6 balls; even if he finds the end zone, a line of 5/40/1 might be in the optimal but is no guarantee. Rookie Rome Odunze has a scary floor and is definitely behind Moore for me but his role at least gives him more per-target upside. It’s a great passing game matchup, and I want to play a Bears pass catcher on most of my lineups – preferably Moore, then Odunze, then Allen last of the primary wide receivers. The Bears have not really employed a WR4 when the primary guys are healthy.
At tight end, Cole Kmet has shaken off a timeshare and booted Gerald Everett back to the bench. Kmet has played 81%, 90%, and 84% in the last three games. Kmet feels like a better Keenan Allen to me, in that he’s cheaper and has some of the same “safety valve” function in the offense but has more per-target upside. Everett has been relegated to a punt option, and then TE3 Marcedes Lewis who has yet to see a target this season.
Jacksonville
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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 1:00pm Eastern
WFT ( 21.75) at
Ravens ( 28.75)
Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Brian Robinson did not practice Wednesday or Thursday due to a knee injury after failing to practice until a limited showing last Friday, ultimately suiting up in Week 5.
- Robinson clearly got banged up early in the third quarter on his longest run of the game, ultimately playing a season-low 34% snap rate after hitting 56% or more in each of the first four games.
- Even with Robinson banged up against the Browns, the Commanders did not increase the opportunities of Austin Ekeler, instead bringing Jeremy McNichols in as the primary early-down grinder.
- The Baltimore defense is going to be the stiffest test to date for Jayden Daniels and the Washington offense.
- Derrick Henry is the KING of the yardage-and-touchdown backs. He brings an immense ceiling, albeit with a scary-low floor if those yards and touchdowns aren’t humming.
How washington Will Try To Win ::
We spoke to the insane efficiency from this Washington offense leading into a Week 5 showdown with the Browns. Yes, they were highly unlikely to score on 90.1% of their possessions for the rest of the season (as they had over the previous three games), but they still managed to hang 34 on a good Cleveland defense. After scoring 10 touchdowns, kicking 10 field goals, committing one turnover, and punting just once during the previous three games, Washington came out and scored three first-half touchdowns, kicked one field goal, punted twice, and had one interception on seven first-half possessions. They added another touchdown and another field goal to go with a lost fumble on their first three possessions of the second half, all against a defense that is one of the most aggressive units in the league. They accomplished that feat while rushing 34 times to just 28 team pass attempts, which has been a consistent theme with this team through the season’s first five weeks. But now they face a Ravens defense that serves as the most pass-funnel unit in the league, allowing just 60.4 rush yards on 19.8 carries and 3.1 yards per carry per game this season, with only the rush attempts per game faced falling out of first in the league (second, behind the Vikings). So, how then does Kliff Kingsbury alter his offensive game plan based on the opponent? That is the question, friends.
Robinson clearly got banged up early in the third quarter on his longest run of the game in Week 5, ultimately playing a season-low 34% snap rate after hitting 56% or more in each of the first four games. Even with Robinson banged up against the Browns, the Commanders did not increase the opportunities of Ekeler, instead bringing McNichols in as the primary early-down grinder. That gives us a good idea of what to expect should Robinson miss Week 6, with McNichols likely stepping into the 1A role while Ekeler continues to operate as the primary change-of-pace and clear passing down back. As mentioned above, the matchup is absolutely brutal against the top run defense in the league. The Ravens also lead the league in adjusted yards allowed before contact at just 1.21, but the dual-threat abilities of quarterback Daniels has contributed to some gaudy rushing numbers from Washington backs this season. McNichols averages 7.1 yards per tote, Ekeler averages 7.9, and Robinson a solid 4.4 as the grinder in the offense. The three have combined to score nine touchdowns on the ground through five games, or 1.8 per game.
The Washington pass game has devolved into a seven-person conglomerate this season, with four wide receivers and three tight ends seeing meaningful snaps on a weekly basis. Terry McLaurin started the season in a near every-down role but has been relegated to 71% and 67% snap rates the previous two games, although both of those games were blowout wins over the Browns and Cardinals. In this game environment, I would expect McLaurin back in the 85-95% snap rate range with a near 100% route-participation rate. There has been no clear breakout for the WR3 positions, while Noah Brown appeared to have cemented his status as the preferred WR2 before missing Week 5 with a groin injury. McLaurin now leads the league with 11 deep targets, tied with Rashid Shaheed in New Orleans, and the Ravens rank 27th in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.5. This could be a spot where volume finally ticks up to a range where he has a legitimate path to floor and ceiling. Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr worked under then-defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald in 2022 and 2023 and has utilized similar tendencies to his former boss, playing primarily from Cover-1, Cover-3, Cover-4, and Cover-6. The Ravens are generating pressure at a 19th-ranked 29.3% while blitzing only 22.7% of the time, instead settling into zone at a 70.2% clip and allowing organic pressure to win up front. That’s a poor setup for Daniels and his known tendencies through the college and professional ranks.
How BALTIMORE Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 1:00pm Eastern
Cards ( 20.75) at
Packers ( 26.25)
Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- The Packers placed TE Luke Musgrave on injured reserve this week, removing all doubts as to who the primary option is at the position (although Tucker Kraft had already played over him in every game this season).
- CB Jaire Alexander appears ready to return from two missed games after getting in a limited session Wednesday.
- The Packers lead the league with 14 total takeaways this season, with S Xavier McKinney serving as a true difference-maker with a pick in each game and a fumble recovery.
- We saw (or were reminded of) how the Packers would prefer to approach games in Week 5 against the Rams. This situation sets up to be eerily similar.
- The Cardinals are not typically a team to push the game environment on their own, and they continue to have a poorly structured pass game.
- Both the Packers and the Cardinals rank in the bottom six in pass rate over expectation (PROE) through five weeks.
How arizona Will Try To Win ::
The Cardinals rank 24th in average time of possession, 28th in PROE, 14th in yards per game, and 24th in pass yards per game, but they rank 12th in points per game (24.0). That is after they averaged 19.0 points per game in 2023. I regurgitate all those statistics to show that the Cardinals are likely outperforming their expectations through the first five weeks of the 2024 season. That should also serve to highlight how poorly this offense is structured and coached – well, not all of it. The Cardinals rank fourth in the league with 156.4 rush yards per game and we’ve continually brought up the fact that offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has one of the better run schemes in the league while having an atrocious pass scheme this season. But that’s how this team wants to try to win games, they want to emphasize the run behind the third best run-blocking offensive line, try to control the time of possession battle, and hide a defense that does not have the personnel to be competitive at present. Head coach Jonathan Gannon is a solid defensive mind and has proven capable in scheming around those personnel shortcomings, but we’ve also seen how that can break down against competent opposition. The Packers are very much competent opposition.
Expect the Cardinals to start the game with a run-leaning approach designed to shorten the game as much as possible, which plays into the volume expectation of James Conner. Conner ranks 10th in snap share (70.7%), 11th in team opportunity share (70.5%), sixth in carries (83, or 16.6 per game), and seventh in rush yards (379). That said, he has seen only 10 total targets through five games, leaving him as a prototypical yardage-and-touchdown back. The clearest path to a robust workload for Conner is for the Cardinals to keep this game close, although he is typically less dependent on game environment than other yardage-and-touchdown backs due to Petzing’s offensive tendencies. Conner saw 20 opportunities in a Week 1 loss to the Bills, 22 opportunities in a Week 2 blowout win against the Rams, 10 opportunities in a nightmare matchup on the ground against the Lions in Week 3, 19 opportunities in a blowout loss to the Commanders in Week 4, and 22 opportunities in the last-minute win over the 49ers in Week 5. All of that to say, Conner is likely to see 20 opportunities in all but the worst matchups on the ground, in almost any game environment. Emari Demercado has operated as the preferred change-of-pace back but has seen just eight carries and four targets this season. This is Conner’s backfield. The Packers present a non-prohibitive-but-not-elite matchup after allowing 4.4 yards per carry behind 1.50 yards allowed before contact through five weeks.
The pass game is highly concentrated amongst rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. (25.4% target share and 28.6% red-zone target share) and tight end Trey McBride (league-leading 25.9% target share and 25.0% red-zone target share), but this pass offense remains so static and uninspiring that the path to upside for either is much more muddied than others with similarly high involvement. Arizona ranks 26th in pass attempts per game at 27.6, clearly indicating where the emphasis of this offense rests. Second-year wide receiver Michael Wilson is the only other pass catcher to see a consistent role in this offense, with Greg Dortch’s snaps and involvement largely defined by their 12-personnel usage (which is robust, to say the least). The Packers are near the middle of the pack (get it?) in most metrics against the pass, allowing 6.6 yards per pass attempt (18th) through five weeks. But again, they lead the league in takeaways per game at 2.8, doing so largely through a complex defensive scheme that utilizes a solid mix of Cover-1, Cover-3, Cover-4, and Cover-6. There isn’t a ton to get overly excited about from this Arizona pass game in a standard week, with the clear caveat that Kyler Murray, Harrison Jr., and McBride are all capable of overcoming their offensive coordinator out of structure.
How green bay Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 1:00pm Eastern
Texans ( 22.5) at
Patriots ( 16)
Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- The notable injuries on the Texans side of the ball are Joe Mixon (DNP), Dameon Pierce (DNP), Laremy Tunsil (DNP), Robert Woods (DNP), and Nico Collins who was placed on IR.
- The Patriots only notable DNP to start the week was Rhamondre Stevenson with an ankle.
- The Texans have a high powered offense in the public’s mind, but they’ve been winning on defense and just lost Nico Collins for at least the next four weeks.
- Dare Ogunbowale played twice as many snaps as Cam Akers last week. He was given 22 opportunities, including seven targets.
- Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson split snaps directly down the middle last week.
- Drake Maye will make his first career start.
- Ja’Lynn Polk played 100% of the snaps last week.
How houston Will Try To Win ::
The 4-1 Texans come into Week 6 having earned the second best record in the AFC. They beat the 3-2 Bills in dramatic fashion, hitting a 59-yard field goal as time expired. That win might have big implications in the playoffs since there is a good chance both the Texans and Bills will be contenders. C.J. Stroud continued to look like the real deal, throwing for 331 yards to eight different receivers. Stroud managed to get it done even though Nico Collins left the game early with a hamstring injury which will sideline him for several weeks. Collins’ injury is a big loss, but even so, DeMeco Ryans must be pleased with the start of the season. Ryans has spent his career on the defensive side of the ball, and he’s left the offense in the hands of Bobby Slowik. Slowik comes from the 49ers and has installed his own version of the Shanahan offense. The Texans are deliberate (21st in pace), which tells how they want to play since all four of their wins have been one-score games. The Texans throw more than average (11th in PROE), but as it has been all season, that stat is misleading. They have a slightly negative PROE value, but this year that’s good for the top half of the league in PROE. The Texans are a balanced offense that might be generally overrated in many people’s minds as they are 21st in overall DVOA.
When the Texans take to the air, they’ve been middling (16th in DVOA) but that ranking is also misleading since they have a highly positive passing game DVOA value. 24 teams have a positive passing game DVOA value on the season while only 10 teams have a positive running game DVOA value. Interestingly, most teams seem to be better at passing but offensive coordinators are choosing overwhelmingly to run. The Texans have struggled on the ground (26th in DVOA), which makes sense since they’ve had backup-level play at running back since Joe Mixon went down. The Patriots have been hurt through the air (28th in DVOA), and on the ground (25th in DVOA) and are feeling the sting of letting Bill Belichick leave on the defensive side of the ball. The Patriots pass rush has also been below average (20th in sack percentage), while allowing a lot of yards (24th in yards allowed per game), making them a below average unit across the board. Expect the Texans to come out in their preferred balanced style, seeing what works, while hoping to build a lead and cruise to a comfortable victory.
How new england Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 1:00pm Eastern
Bucs ( 23) at
Saints ( 19.5)
Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Saints QB Derek Carr is expected to miss multiple weeks with an oblique injury suffered in the fourth quarter of the team’s Week 5 loss to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
- A litany of additional primary pieces joined Carr as DNPs Wednesday, including RB Alvin Kamara (hip/hand), TE Taysom Hill (rib), S Will Harris (hamstring), WR Rashid Shaheed (hip), OG/C Lucas Patrick (chest), and OG/C Cesar Ruiz (knee).
- HC Dennis Allen confirmed Wednesday that Spencer Rattler will start for the Saints.
- The Saints have allowed just ONE passing touchdown through five games.
How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
The Buccaneers continue with a predictable game plan in most weeks, typically aiming to generate disruption on defense through aggressive tendencies, unique blitzes, and heavy zone rates while carrying a solid pass rate over expectation (PROE) value on offense due to the struggles of the run game. Tampa Bay currently ranks third in PROE, have an offensive line blocking to just 1.62 yards before contact per attempt (19th), and have a lead back averaging 3.7 yards per carry after the team averaged 3.6 yards per carry a season ago (Bucky Irving is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, inflating the team numbers through five weeks). A 29th-ranked pace of play (31.5 seconds per play) has held total pass volume to a middling 30.6 pass attempts per game, so while the Buccaneers have elevated PROE values, their total offensive volume has required the right game environment to push them. That is highly unlikely to occur in this spot considering the current state of the Saints.
On the ground, the Buccaneers have one of the better on-paper matchups through advanced metrics. The Saints have allowed the third-most yards before contact per attempt (2.65), behind only the Bills and Commanders. That said, their linebacker corps is one of the most athletic units in the league with Pete Werner, DeMario Davis, and Paulson Adebo, leading to a moderate 4.4 yards per carry and just over 105 yards allowed on the ground per game. And then there’s the poor run-blocking metrics from the Buccaneers, their borderline extreme PROE values, and the fact that the team has largely refused to give more work to its most efficient back (Irving). That said, there is a potential path to increased volume here if the Buccaneers are able to control the game environment with their defense against a rookie fifth-round quarterback in his first NFL start. Rachaad White has not seen more than 13 opportunities since Week 1, which is partly due to game environments and is partly due to the emergence of Irving as a true injection of athleticism on the ground. Irving currently ranks ninth in breakaway rush rate at 9.1% but has yet to see more than 10 carries in a game. Add it all up and we’re likeliest to see this backfield remain a head-scratching timeshare in the immediate future.
The Saints run near-equal rates of Cover-1, Cover-2, and Cover-3 on defense and are allowing 0.41 fantasy points per dropback or less from all primary splits (man, zone, single-high, and two-high). To put that number into perspective, they are joined by only the Jets and Browns as teams to allow 0.41 fantasy points per dropback from all four major defensive alignment and coverage splits this season. In other words, this pass defense has been really, really good through five games. A lot of that has been due to allowing just one passing touchdown all season, which is truly remarkable, but the point remains – this team is not a glaring on-paper matchup through the air. Furthermore, the Buccaneers are averaging just 30.6 pass attempts per game behind one of the slowest offenses in the league, meaning play volume could be an issue in this spot. Finally, Baker Mayfield is targeting wide receivers at a modest 63.2% rate, which ranks near the middle of the pack (14th). To back those numbers up, Mike Evans has one game this season over seven targets and Chris Godwin has been between six and nine targets in every game, and that is with an injury-forced rotation at the WR3 position between Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer, and Sterling Shepard.
How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 1:00pm Eastern
Browns ( 17) at
Eagles ( 25)
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both returned to full practices on Wednesday out of their bye week. I expect both to play with no limitations against the Browns.
- In fact, the Eagles didn’t have a single player listed as a DNP on Wednesday.
- The Browns listed 20 players on the first injury report of the week, most notably RB Nick Chubb (limited, knee), OT Jack Conklin (limited, hamstring), RB D’Onta Foreman (DNP, ankle), DE Myles Garrett (DNP, Achilles), TE David Njoku (DNP, knee/ankle), C Ethan Pocic (DNP, knee), CB Denzel Ward (DNP, hamstring), and OT Jedrick Wills (limited, knee).
- This game should provide one of the widest ranges of outcomes on the slate as far as expected game environment goes. While the game definitely has players capable of altering a game environment, the shortcomings of the Cleveland offense inhibit a true “had to have it” setup.
- The Eagles are a team I expect to continue to improve as the season moves along considering the changes at both coordinator positions and the immense defensive personnel turnover this offseason. They are also returning to health after a well-timed bye week in Week 5.
How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::
Deshaun Watson had another absolute disaster of a game in the face of immense pressure against the Commanders in Week 5. His pocket presence is almost nonexistent, and he’s tucking the football as soon as he feels pressure. Most notably in those tendencies, Watson is not keeping his eyes downfield once he does look to extend the play through pressure, instead ping-ponging around between his tackles like a chicken in a cage. To that end, Watson looked the best on tape against the Raiders in Week 4, a team ranked 31st in pressure rate. It just so happens the Browns opponent in Week 6 is an Eagles team ranked 30th in pressure rate at 26.2%. That singular data point probably has the greatest influence on how the Browns are able to approach this game. Beyond that, the Browns continue to be bitten by the injury bug, with three primary linemen still on the injury report, tight end David Njoku picking up an additional injury in Week 5 after missing the previous three games, and Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, the team’s two top talents on the defensive side of the ball, held out of practice with significant injuries on Wednesday. The Browns have largely been forced into immense pass volume, ranking sixth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and seventh in pass attempts per game (35.4).
Nick Chubb saw his 14-day practice window open last week in his return bid from the PUP list and started Week 6 preparations with a limited showing. He reportedly practiced again on Thursday but was fourth through running back drills. I tentatively expect him to sit one more game before making his season debut against the Bengals in Week 7. In his absence, expect Jerome Ford to continue operating as the lead back in what has been a seemingly everchanging backfield split between him and D’Onta Foreman. That said, Foreman missed practice Wednesday, something to monitor moving forward as an absence could provide additional opportunities for Ford. The Philadelphia defense has largely struggled in all phases in one of the more intricate defensive schemes in the league, something that is likely to improve as the season moves along. As things stand now, the Eagles are allowing 5.0 yards per carry (28th) and 2.45 yards before contact per attempt (also 28th).
Cleveland’s offensive line injuries have made life extremely difficult on Watson, a quarterback who tends to tuck and run at the first sign of pressure. As a result, the offense struggled immensely against the Cowboys (third in pressure rate), Jaguars (12th), Giants (ninth), and Commanders (15th), while looking slightly more capable (on tape) against the low pressure rates of the Raiders (31st). That makes a matchup against the 30th-ranked pressure rates of the Eagles noteworthy here. The return of David Njoku in Week 5 pushed the offense to heavier rates of 12-personnel, something that could revert to a high emphasis on 11-personnel should Njoku require missed time with his most recent injury. On that note, Amari Cooper leads the team handily in total snaps and route participation rate, with Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore slightly behind the team’s alpha. The Eagles are operating as a slight pass-funnel defense through four games, forcing a 57.96% opponent pass play rate (10th highest in the league). Considering Cleveland’s 64.65% overall pass rate, the state of the offensive line and backfield, and a seventh-ranked 35.4 pass attempts per game value, it is likely we see 36-38 pass attempts from Deshaun Watson here. That leaves a clear path for 9-10 targets for Cooper, albeit with an extremely wide range of outcomes considering his 13.9 aDOT (13th deepest). Cooper continues to lead the league in air yards and ranks third in air yards share (a ridiculous 49.2%), so the ceiling is definitely there, adding a solid route win rate (19th-ranked 52.7%), but he also leads the league in unrealized air yards 487, or a laughable 10.4 per target, due to Watson’s downfield struggles.
How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 1:00pm Eastern
Colts ( 19.5) at
Titans ( 22)
Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- I’m writing this before the first official injury report comes out for the Colts, but head coach Shane Steichen said QB Anthony Richardson (oblique) and C Ryan Kelly (neck) would practice Wednesday while RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) would not.
- One injury-related development for Indianapolis that unfortunately appears to have higher probability is the expected multi-game absence for Michael Pittman due to a back injury. The duo of rookie Adonai Mitchell, who notably is coming off a career-high four catches and seven targets in Week 5, and Ashton Dulin will likely split Pittman’s perimeter snaps, while Josh Downs is projected to become an even more pivotal part of the air attack.
- Titans HC Brian Callahan said QB Will Levis (shoulder) would be limited in practice Wednesday after being removed from the team’s Week 4 win over the Dolphins. The bye week appears to have allowed him enough time to heal.
- The 1-3 Titans host the 2-3 Colts in a borderline must-win divisional matchup between two teams chasing the Texans (4-1).
- The Titans’ defense under new defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson has been one of the more pleasant surprises of the season thus far. Their offseason additions on the defensive side of the football have been spectacular.
- The Titans’ offensive line has created just 0.91 yards before contact per attempt, second worst in the league ahead of only the Jets, but Tony Pollard’s 4.07 yards after contact per attempt is first in the league among running backs with 40 or more carries.
How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::
Richardson has pass attempts of 19, 34, and 20 in his three fully healthy games this season, playing just under two drives in Week 4 and missing Week 5 with his oblique injury. That probably has a lot to do with the fact that the Colts averaged just 21:36 time of possession in those three games, with head coach Shane Steichen’s offense looking much better with Joe Flacco under center. Steichen’s offense has largely been predicated on timing and zone reads, two aspects of Richardson’ game that have yet to fully develop. The most interesting finding in that exploration has to do with the structure of the offense (built for exactly who Flacco is, a veteran quarterback with above-average pocket presence, timing, and ability to progress through reads) as we typically think of Steichen as a coach that is going to optimize for the talent he has on the field. Furthering that notion is a lowly scramble rate when under pressure by Richardson this season, which tells me this staff has been coaching him up to try and avoid injuries – and then they go and call a designed quarterback keeper on the first play after he returns from a hip pointer in Week 4, only for him to accept contact and suffer the oblique injury. All of that to say, I have not yet seen this “Steichen is going to optimize for the players he has on the field” this season, instead leaving the offense an unnatural fit for the things that Richardson does best. That is not the best setup considering the Colts play a Titans defense allowing the fewest yards from scrimmage per game this season at just 243.8.
Jonathan Taylor was reportedly set to miss practice on Wednesday after sitting out the team’s Week 5 overtime loss to the Jaguars, placing his status in question for Week 6 considering the nature of his injury (high-ankle sprain). There are certain injuries you don’t want to see at the various positions (of the non-season-ending variety) – for wide receivers it’s the dreaded hamstring (another one bites the dust in Nico Collins), for quarterbacks it’s the shoulder (welcome to that party, Levis), and for running backs, it’s the ankle. These are typically injuries that the player cannot play through and must allow the requisite time to heal due to the nature of the individual positions. As such, I tentatively expect Taylor to sit again in Week 6. That would leave Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson to split the backfield work as they did a week ago, with Sermon the preferred early-down grinder and Goodson the change-of-pace and clear passing-down back. A standard 60/40 snap-rate split led to 10 carries and six targets for Sermon and five carries and three targets for Goodson, in a game the Colts attempted 45 passes to just 20 rush attempts with Flacco under center. I have to think we see a much more run-balanced game plan with Richardson expected back, which should provide the opportunity for 12-14 carries for Sermon and 6-8 carries for Goodson, with Richardson likely soaking up a handful of carries himself. Either way, that situation does not scream upside against a Titans defense allowing just 1.77 yards before contact (10th fewest) and 4.2 yards per carry (also 10th fewest).
We don’t have a massive sample size with both Downs and Richardson on the field together after Downs missed the first two games and Richardson left Week 4 after just two drives and sat in Week 5. What we do know is that Downs was already seeing a “standard for a slot wide receiver” 60-65% snap rate while Pittman and Alec Pierce operated in more robust snap rate roles, with Mitchell and Dulin mixing in for package plays (sub-30% snap rates). The fact Pittman is now expected to miss Week 6 at the very minimum naturally is projected to boost the snap rates of all the aforementioned players, and Downs, because of the role he already fills, may well be the best suited to pick up the majority the short-to-intermediate area work his teammate will vacate. Meanwhile, the tight-end room has devolved into a four-way timeshare the previous two weeks, with Mo Alie-Cox leading the way with a max of 47% of the offensive snaps played. Pierce also led the team in yardage in all three games with Richardson under center to start the season, seeing target counts of 3 // 7 // 2. That is more of an indictment on the state of this offense with Richardson under center more than it is a ringing endorsement for Pierce. Finally, the Titans are holding opponents to a second-ranked 5.0 yards per pass attempt and the fewest pass yards allowed per game (124). This is not the best spot for fantasy production to materialize.
How TENNESSEE Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 4:05pm Eastern
Chargers ( 20) at
Broncos ( 17)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- The Chargers enter Week 6 coming off their bye week and should be relatively rested and healthy, with QB Justin Herbert finally having some time to get his ankle healthier.
- Expect a low-scoring dogfight in this game as field position and time of possession become important battles both teams will focus on winning.
- Both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL in offensive DVOA through five weeks.
- Broncos QB Bo Nix is coming off the best game of his young career and will look to continue that success against a formidable Chargers defense.
- Both teams rank in top five in PFF coverage grades and should make it very difficult for these conservative offenses to move the ball with chunk plays through the air.
How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::
The Chargers have held true to their words from this offseason as a team focused on running the ball and playing defense. Jim Harbaugh has things going exactly as planned, with the Chargers ranking 31st out of 32 teams in pass rate over expectation (PROE) – currently sporting a pass rate 10.4% below what would be expected from the game situations they have been in so far this year. Interestingly, the Chargers rank 14th in PROE in the red zone, as teams appear to be selling out to stop their running game in those short areas and forcing their hands to the air.
Los Angeles is not a team that will have its approach swayed drastically by any opponent, and that will certainly be the case this week in Denver against a Broncos team that has had limited offensive success this year. J.K. Dobbins has emerged as the leader of this backfield and dominated touches in Week 4, prior to the Chargers bye. It would not be surprising, however, to see Gus Edwards or one of the younger RBs on the roster come out of the bye with a bigger role, as there is a limit on how many touches Dobbins will handle. Additionally, in games where they have higher play volume, they’ll have no choice but to get others involved. Edwards seems to have fallen out of favor and was a middling talent anyways, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see exciting rookie Kimani Vidal activated coming out of the bye week. Denver has one of the top coverage units in the NFL, led by superstar CB Patrick Surtain II, and while the Chargers may open things up a bit some weeks – this likely isn’t that week. Resurgent second year WR Quentin Johnston and rookie Ladd McConkey should be busy on shorter routes and schemed touches to try and let them make plays with the ball in their hands. While the Denver defense is very good, they gave up a couple of big plays to the Raiders in Week 5 due to missed tackles, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see one of the RBs, Johnston, or McConkey break off some chunk plays through broken tackles.
How denver Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 4:05pm Eastern
Steelers ( 19.75) at
Raiders ( 16.75)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Quarterback Aidan O’Connell will start his first game of the season for the Raiders.
- These teams both grade out as top-5 units in run defense by PFF’s grades through five weeks, which will make sustaining drives difficult for both offenses.
- Despite a likely run-heavy game plan, the Steelers should have some opportunities for big plays in the passing game.
- All of the Raiders losses in 2024 have been by 12 or more points.
- 30 or fewer total points were scored in three of the five games Pittsburgh has played this season.
How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
The Steelers have lost their last two games after starting the year with a three game winning streak. Both of their losses have been by three points. The Steelers formula is very clear as they want to run the ball and play hard-nosed defense and grind out their opponents. Pittsburgh currently ranks 28th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) despite ranking 23rd in rushing offense DVOA. This is an eye opening statistic because it outlines how the Steelers are willing to stick with the run even when they are not being efficient in doing so. Another interesting observation about the 2024 Steelers has been the fact that they have continued to run the ball at such a high rate despite running back Jaylen Warren battling injuries all season and basically being a non-factor. We expected the Steelers to run the ball at a high rate this year, but part of that expectation was around the fact that they had Warren and Najee Harris to each touch the ball often and wear defenses down, with Cordarrelle Patterson (who is also injured) waiting in the wings. It isn’t necessarily surprising that they’ve stuck with their philosophy despite the injuries and lack of efficiency, but it is telling and notable.
As for their actual game plan, the Steelers will extensively utilize their running backs and have some designed runs for Fields. They will still throw the ball, however, and they may have a good deal of success doing so against a Raiders defense that has struggled on the back end this year. Over the last three weeks the Raiders gave up a massive game to Andy Dalton and the Panthers, were a questionable holding call away from giving up a huge game to Deshaun Watson and the Browns, and surrendered the best game of Bo Nix’s young career after he looked overwhelmed for the first four weeks. In last week’s game against Denver, the Broncos had a lot of success through the air and actually missed on a couple of wide open opportunities for big plays that don’t show up on the stat sheet. While Pittsburgh will throw at a low rate, there will certainly be opportunities for some big plays and the Steelers are likely to take some downfield shots. After a week in which star receiver George Pickens was mostly unused and the team lost in primetime, it would stand to reason that they will dial up some shots this week against a defense with a lot of poor film covering downfield and PFF’s 32nd graded coverage unit. Justin Fields ranked 5th out of all QBs in PFF grade on throws of 20+ yards in 2023 and ranks 7th in that same category this season. This feels like a game with a high likelihood of Fields and Pickens connecting for a long touchdown as the Raiders key in on the Steelers running game and leave their secondary exposed on the back end. Pittsburgh will not have a high volume passing attack and they like to spread things out – seven different receivers saw multiple targets on only 28 pass attempts last week with only Pickens being targeted more than five times – but they will take some calculated shots this week with a higher than normal chance of success.
How las vegas Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 4:25pm Eastern
Falcons ( 26) at
Panthers ( 20)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Atlanta is coming off a huge divisional win over the Bucs and 10 days of rest, while Kirk Cousins appears to be hitting his stride in recovery from last year’s injury.
- Carolina is last in the NFL in scoring defense at 33 points per game and has given up 34 and 36 points, respectively, in the last two weeks.
- These defenses both rank bottom-3 in the league in PFF pass rush grade, so pocket passers Andy Dalton and Kirk Cousins should have time to throw.
- This game is an underrated potential shootout, with Atlanta ranking top-12 in the NFL in both rushing offense and passing offense DVOA while Carolina is averaging 23.3 points per game when Andy Dalton starts.
How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::
The Falcons started the year with tough matchups against the Steelers, Eagles, and Chiefs while starting QB Kirk Cousins navigated his way back on the field after tearing his right Achilles tendon in 2023. This led to a moderate offensive approach that ran at a high rate and tried to hide/protect Cousins. Film grinders were all over the fact that Cousins wasn’t moving much in the pocket and wasn’t getting much drive off his back leg, which was the one he injured. It was over. Maybe Atlanta should just get a look at first round rookie QB Michael Penix? Fast forward two weeks and Cousins is coming off a career game of 509 yards, 4 TDs, and an epic 4th quarter/overtime comeback in a primetime game. Remember when the narrative was that “Primetime Kirk” couldn’t handle the spotlight? He has two primetime comebacks in five weeks this season, with another one against the Chiefs in Week 3 coming up just short.
Atlanta is unleashing their passing attack right now as they have had neutral pass rates of 73% and 79% over the last two weeks. Free agent acquisition Darnell Mooney and budding star Drake London are playing at a high level and the Falcons other receivers, Ray-Ray McCloud and KhaDarel Hodge, are also playing very well with their limited opportunities. Even tight end Kyle Pitts sprang to life in Week 5 with seven catches for 88 yards, both of which would have been his best outing of 2023. The Falcons running game is no joke, either, as they have two very good running backs in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, who rank 15th and 16th in PFF rushing grade through five weeks. The Falcons offensive line has been blocking very well and we should expect Cousins to have time to throw and the backs to have room to run in this game. Carolina put on a horrible display of tackling in Week 5 and Atlanta will have chances to make plays after the catch this week. Expect an aggressive Falcons offense early in this one as they look to build a lead and let their running game put it away late.
How carolina Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 4:25pm Eastern
Lions ( 28) at
Cowboys ( 24.5)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Detroit enters Week 6 off their bye and travels to Dallas for a rematch of a controversial game from Week 17 of 2023.
- Dallas has a 3-2 record right now, but has serious questions on the defensive side of the ball and has struggled with higher end competition.
- By DVOA ranks, the Lions rushing offense is 2nd in the league while the Cowboys rushing defense is 31st in the league.
- The Dallas offense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per carry and they are facing a Lions defense that faces the third highest opponent pass rate in the league.
- These two offenses are among the fastest paced in the league.
How detroit Will Try To Win ::
The preferred method of attack for the Lions is an aggressive one that starts with their running game and builds from there. Detroit has the best running back duo in the NFL, with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and an offensive line that has the best adjusted line yards per attempt in the NFL through five weeks. Said another way, their line is the best in the league and their backs are capable of taking those big holes and making the most of them. Detroit will take shots downfield and they will open it up and let Jared Goff chuck the rock when necessary, but they know their bread is buttered on the ground and you can expect them to plan accordingly.
This will be especially apparent this week as the Lions travel to Dallas to face the 31st ranked run defense of the Cowboys. Through five games, Dallas has faced three offenses (CLE, NYG, PIT) ranked in the bottom-10 of the league in rushing offense DVOA and two offenses (NO, BAL) ranked as top-10 rushing offenses. In the three games against the “bad” rushing offenses, they surrendered 70 rushing yards per game and allowed 16 points per game. In the two games against the “good” rushing offenses, Dallas allowed 232 rushing yards per game and 36 points per game. Detroit’s offense is ranked 2nd in the league in rushing DVOA (BAL is #1, NO is #10). Sure, these are small samples, but the Lions have an elite running game and we have multiple games to see how the Cowboys are simply not equipped to slow it down. The Lions RBs combine for about 35 opportunities (targets plus carries) per game and this week should be no different, with a strong chance for them to go over 40 in an uptempo game against a soft matchup. The main thing that could limit those opportunities would be if they were overly efficient and breaking off big plays, therefore shortening drives. For our purposes, however, that is a good outcome as well. One thing that stood out in researching this game is the fact that Gibbs has not been targeted in either of the last two Lions games. Coming out of their bye, we should expect getting him back involved as a receiver to be a point of emphasis.
Through the air, Detroit’s All-Pro WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and his ascending teammate Jameson Williams have dominated the team’s targets, combining for a 52% target share through four games. Second-year tight end Sam LaPorta has been less involved than expected to start the year, but a concerted effort to get him going coming out of the bye would make a lot of sense. Jared Goff is always going to be best when targeting the short to intermediate areas of the field where ARSB, LaPorta, and his RBs primarily work, but the emergence of Williams as a big-play threat has allowed Goff to showcase his underrated ability on downfield throws. The Dallas defense was already struggling but is now playing without DeMarcus Lawrence and likely Micah Parsons. Detroit scored 42 points in their last game prior to their bye and if they can execute in the red zone and avoid turnovers they may be able to come close to that this week.
How dallas Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 13th 8:20pm Eastern
Bengals ( 25) at
Giants ( 21)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday night has the Bengals visiting the Giants for a 47.5 total game with Cincinnati favored by 3.5. The Giants have actually been playing better than their 2-3 record indicates in many ways. Daniel Jones’ quarterback rating since Week 1 is over 100 with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio, but they’ve struggled to convert successful drives into touchdowns. Their defense has held their last four opponents to 21 or fewer points, including the Cowboys and the Seahawks. They’re . . . maybe okay? The Bengals, meanwhile, have scored 25 or more points in four straight games and 30+ in three straight, but are just 1-4 on the season because their defense gives it up to everyone. This could be a really interesting and fun game to go after. Let’s see if we can figure it out.
Cincinnati
On the Bengals side, both Zack Moss and Chase Brown were flagged as questionable at some point this week. The coach said they’re both good to go but Brown still enters the weekend with a questionable tag, which is slightly odd. It seems like he’s probably playing but the tag gives the Bengals an out in case he doesn’t. We’ve seen Zack Moss dominate snap counts so far, playing more than double the snaps of Brown and no fewer than 60% in a game but he’s also running for just 3.7 yards per carry. His passing game role has been decent with 4+ targets in all but one game (something I wasn’t really expecting for him), while Brown has seen his snaps increase slightly but his workload jump dramatically with 15 and 12 carries in his last two games. So far Brown has looked like the much more explosive runner (5.6 yards per carry) and it seems like he’s eating into Moss’s workload though Moss still has a big edge around the goal line with 8 touches inside the 5 to Brown’s 3. It’s weird to me that Moss is cheaper than Brown as Moss’s role is, overall, better. I’ll lean his way but think both are viable here. I don’t really want to play them together a lot but don’t think I’d explicitly block it out. I might do a rule of max 2 of Burrow // Moss // Brown (thinking if both RBs hit it’s unlikely Burrow really smashes because that means a lot of the scoring is coming on the ground), or otherwise, I’ll have a rule that applies a negative boost to one RB if the other is on a roster.
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In the passing game, the Bengals offense has really started to wake up. Obviously, Burrow had a monster game last week, but he’s sitting on a 12:2 TD:INT ratio on the season as a whole while averaging right around 300 passing yards/game in his last four games. Ja’Marr Chase is the star of the show and like most alpha receivers it’s hard to write much about him that everyone doesn’t already know. The Giants defense has been pretty solid, but Chase is elite and completely matchup proof. He’s an awesome play if you can afford him. WR2 Tee Higgins is a little bit of a trickier one for me. I like Higgins as a player, he’d be the WR1 on many NFL teams, but a $9,400 salary is rough for a guy whose career numbers when playing alongside Chase are rough 4.2 // 60 // 0.4. Higgins is a good player but Chase is so dominant that it’s hard for him to consistently deliver ceiling performances while sharing the field. I don’t want to say I’m off him, as he does still have a ceiling (just look at last week), but I think he’s overpriced and I’ll end up underweight. WR3 Andrei Iosivas (Yoshi) has struggled to earn targets when Chase and Higgins are on the field. He had 6 targets in Week 1 when Chase was coming off a shortened training camp, and then 11 in Weeks 2-3 when Higgins missed, but since Higgins returned, Yoshi has just 3 targets in two games out of 70 Burrow dropbacks, yikes. We’ll see if that swings around, but right now it’s hard to view him as more than a punt option.
At tight end, the Bengals are splitting reps three ways with all of Mike Gesicki, Erick All, and Drew Sample seeing work. All has actually seen the largest share of snaps two weeks in a row and has consistently seen targets. Gesicki has the most targets at the position but that was driven by an early season surge, and he’s dropped off some of late (just 3 targets in the last two games), while Sample has been used almost entirely as a blocker this season. On a per-target basis, Gesicki has much more upside than All, as he’s run deeper routes. I’ll lean his way at similar price points.
New York
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Kickoff Monday, Oct 14th 8:15pm Eastern
Bills ( 21.5) at
Jets ( 20)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 6 comes to an end with the Bills visiting the Jets for a 40.5 total game with the Bills favored by a point, so, basically a pick’em. We get a strength on strength matchup as the Bills offense has been rolling (despite losing their top WR in the offseason), scoring 28.4 points per game so far (3rd in the league) while the Jets are allowing just 15.8 offensive points per game, top 5 in the league. The secondary question is if the Jets can manage to do anything at all on offense, which they’ve struggled to do all year, scoring just 18.6 points per game. To be fair, they’ve faced a lot of really tough defenses – Minnesota, Denver, New England, San Francisco, and Tennessee all rank somewhere between average to really freaking good, but Buffalo is no slouch defensively either. They’re not elite, but they’re a little above average, right around the 49ers/Titans defenses that the Jets struggled with already. We’ll circle back to this in the “how to think about the game script” section later. For now, let’s dive into the players.
New York
On the Jets side, we have to start with Breece Hall, and man oh man, what has happened to you, Breece? The Jets have an offensive line ranked in the top 3rd of the league and yet Breece is running for just 3 yards per carry. So far he’s still kept a strong hold on the running back snap rate, hanging out between 69% – 74% since Week 1, while rookie Braelon Allen has outperformed him significantly on the ground (4.5 YPC) but is still playing behind him, averaging about 8 carries per game. So the question is, has Breece just fallen apart? My guess is no – he’s too young and was too good last year to just be terrible all of a sudden. I think he’s going to get it together and this is a great spot against a Bills team that is dead last in yards per carry allowed to opponents. Breece still has a robust passing game role to continue to bolster his floor and ceiling (note 18.3 or more points in three of five games this year despite performing poorly on the ground). This feels like a turnaround spot. Or, at least I sure hope it is, because I’m going to be way overweight here. Allen is a classic “RB2 in Showdown.” I wish he was just a bit cheaper. Still, in such a great matchup, he could find his way into the optimal lineup via lucking into a touchdown, or a bit of extra rushing work if the Jets go ground heavy as the matchup suggests they should, or catches a few balls, etc. If he gets to 12 points, odds are he’s in winning tournament lineups, and I think he has respectable odds of doing so (plus of course a big ceiling should something happen to Breece).
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In the passing game, oh boy. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t exactly been horrible but he hasn’t exactly been good, either. Much like we wrote about Patrick Mahomes in the last Chiefs Showdown, Rodgers is putting up the lowest QB rating of his career and with just about the worst TD:INT ratio of his career. He’s still a capable quarterback, but he sure hasn’t looked elite since coming to New York. We’re going to see Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard as full-time wide receivers, and then Mike Williams finally appears back to full health, playing 71% of the snaps last week (highest of the season) and relegating WR4 Xavier Gipson to the bench with just 2 snaps played. The Bills are vulnerable to the run but strong against the pass, so it’s likely to be tough sledding for the Jets through the air. Wilson is coming off of an insane 22-target game last week – probably not surprising for an Aaron Rodgers receiver, as we know he tends to lock on to one guy, and it looks like Wilson’s it. Even not counting last week, Wilson was averaging 8.5 targets per game, so the volume’s been solid. I think I have a slight lean towards Breece, based on how I think the Jets are going to play this one, but Wilson (like most alpha WRs) is a solid Showdown option. Lazard just keeps scoring touchdowns with four on the season, and while his volume has bounced up and down (games of 3 and 4 targets, but also 8, 9, and 10), on the whole, he’s performed well for the Jets. He’s a little more expensive than I wish he were for his role as I don’t love playing a guy whose price has been climbing like this (he was $5,800 in Showdown just three weeks ago), but he’s proven himself to be a real part of the offense. Finally, Williams is a guy I’m going to keep going back to – he still has “boom” in the boom/bust profile, and he’s finally back to a full-time player – it feels to me that it’s just a matter of time before he hits, and I’d rather be early than late, so I’ll continue to go overweight on him when I have the opportunity to do so. It doesn’t hurt that he’s priced near the kickers and they’ll probably project better than he does, which should keep his ownership in check.
At tight end, Tyler Conklin has been the little engine that could – he’s not especially good, but his targets have continued to climb all season and he had a 6/55/0 line last week on 9 of them. His price is still creeping up but $4k is a reasonable value. I’m in on him as a solid value option. That’s basically the Jets pass catching corps – you can take MME shots on TE2 Jeremy Ruckert or hope that Gipson makes a return and plays a few snaps, but you’re drawing pretty thin past the main guys on an offense that isn’t especially effective through the air to begin with.
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