Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- I’m writing this before the first official injury report comes out for the Colts, but head coach Shane Steichen said QB Anthony Richardson (oblique) and C Ryan Kelly (neck) would practice Wednesday while RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) would not.
- One injury-related development for Indianapolis that unfortunately appears to have higher probability is the expected multi-game absence for Michael Pittman due to a back injury. The duo of rookie Adonai Mitchell, who notably is coming off a career-high four catches and seven targets in Week 5, and Ashton Dulin will likely split Pittman’s perimeter snaps, while Josh Downs is projected to become an even more pivotal part of the air attack.
- Titans HC Brian Callahan said QB Will Levis (shoulder) would be limited in practice Wednesday after being removed from the team’s Week 4 win over the Dolphins. The bye week appears to have allowed him enough time to heal.
- The 1-3 Titans host the 2-3 Colts in a borderline must-win divisional matchup between two teams chasing the Texans (4-1).
- The Titans’ defense under new defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson has been one of the more pleasant surprises of the season thus far. Their offseason additions on the defensive side of the football have been spectacular.
- The Titans’ offensive line has created just 0.91 yards before contact per attempt, second worst in the league ahead of only the Jets, but Tony Pollard’s 4.07 yards after contact per attempt is first in the league among running backs with 40 or more carries.
How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::
Richardson has pass attempts of 19, 34, and 20 in his three fully healthy games this season, playing just under two drives in Week 4 and missing Week 5 with his oblique injury. That probably has a lot to do with the fact that the Colts averaged just 21:36 time of possession in those three games, with head coach Shane Steichen’s offense looking much better with Joe Flacco under center. Steichen’s offense has largely been predicated on timing and zone reads, two aspects of Richardson’ game that have yet to fully develop. The most interesting finding in that exploration has to do with the structure of the offense (built for exactly who Flacco is, a veteran quarterback with above-average pocket presence, timing, and ability to progress through reads) as we typically think of Steichen as a coach that is going to optimize for the talent he has on the field. Furthering that notion is a lowly scramble rate when under pressure by Richardson this season, which tells me this staff has been coaching him up to try and avoid injuries – and then they go and call a designed quarterback keeper on the first play after he returns from a hip pointer in Week 4, only for him to accept contact and suffer the oblique injury. All of that to say, I have not yet seen this “Steichen is going to optimize for the players he has on the field” this season, instead leaving the offense an unnatural fit for the things that Richardson does best. That is not the best setup considering the Colts play a Titans defense allowing the fewest yards from scrimmage per game this season at just 243.8.
Jonathan Taylor was reportedly set to miss practice on Wednesday after sitting out the team’s Week 5 overtime loss to the Jaguars, placing his status in question for Week 6 considering the nature of his injury (high-ankle sprain). There are certain injuries you don’t want to see at the various positions (of the non-season-ending variety) – for wide receivers it’s the dreaded hamstring (another one bites the dust in Nico Collins), for quarterbacks it’s the shoulder (welcome to that party, Levis), and for running backs, it’s the ankle. These are typically injuries that the player cannot play through and must allow the requisite time to heal due to the nature of the individual positions. As such, I tentatively expect Taylor to sit again in Week 6. That would leave Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson to split the backfield work as they did a week ago, with Sermon the preferred early-down grinder and Goodson the change-of-pace and clear passing-down back. A standard 60/40 snap-rate split led to 10 carries and six targets for Sermon and five carries and three targets for Goodson, in a game the Colts attempted 45 passes to just 20 rush attempts with Flacco under center. I have to think we see a much more run-balanced game plan with Richardson expected back, which should provide the opportunity for 12-14 carries for Sermon and 6-8 carries for Goodson, with Richardson likely soaking up a handful of carries himself. Either way, that situation does not scream upside against a Titans defense allowing just 1.77 yards before contact (10th fewest) and 4.2 yards per carry (also 10th fewest).
We don’t have a massive sample size with both Downs and Richardson on the field together after Downs missed the first two games and Richardson left Week 4 after just two drives and sat in Week 5. What we do know is that Downs was already seeing a “standard for a slot wide receiver” 60-65% snap rate while Pittman and Alec Pierce operated in more robust snap rate roles, with Mitchell and Dulin mixing in for package plays (sub-30% snap rates). The fact Pittman is now expected to miss Week 6 at the very minimum naturally is projected to boost the snap rates of all the aforementioned players, and Downs, because of the role he already fills, may well be the best suited to pick up the majority the short-to-intermediate area work his teammate will vacate. Meanwhile, the tight-end room has devolved into a four-way timeshare the previous two weeks, with Mo Alie-Cox leading the way with a max of 47% of the offensive snaps played. Pierce also led the team in yardage in all three games with Richardson under center to start the season, seeing target counts of 3 // 7 // 2. That is more of an indictment on the state of this offense with Richardson under center more than it is a ringing endorsement for Pierce. Finally, the Titans are holding opponents to a second-ranked 5.0 yards per pass attempt and the fewest pass yards allowed per game (124). This is not the best spot for fantasy production to materialize.
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