Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both returned to full practices on Wednesday out of their bye week. I expect both to play with no limitations against the Browns.
- In fact, the Eagles didn’t have a single player listed as a DNP on Wednesday.
- The Browns listed 20 players on the first injury report of the week, most notably RB Nick Chubb (limited, knee), OT Jack Conklin (limited, hamstring), RB D’Onta Foreman (DNP, ankle), DE Myles Garrett (DNP, Achilles), TE David Njoku (DNP, knee/ankle), C Ethan Pocic (DNP, knee), CB Denzel Ward (DNP, hamstring), and OT Jedrick Wills (limited, knee).
- This game should provide one of the widest ranges of outcomes on the slate as far as expected game environment goes. While the game definitely has players capable of altering a game environment, the shortcomings of the Cleveland offense inhibit a true “had to have it” setup.
- The Eagles are a team I expect to continue to improve as the season moves along considering the changes at both coordinator positions and the immense defensive personnel turnover this offseason. They are also returning to health after a well-timed bye week in Week 5.
How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::
Deshaun Watson had another absolute disaster of a game in the face of immense pressure against the Commanders in Week 5. His pocket presence is almost nonexistent, and he’s tucking the football as soon as he feels pressure. Most notably in those tendencies, Watson is not keeping his eyes downfield once he does look to extend the play through pressure, instead ping-ponging around between his tackles like a chicken in a cage. To that end, Watson looked the best on tape against the Raiders in Week 4, a team ranked 31st in pressure rate. It just so happens the Browns opponent in Week 6 is an Eagles team ranked 30th in pressure rate at 26.2%. That singular data point probably has the greatest influence on how the Browns are able to approach this game. Beyond that, the Browns continue to be bitten by the injury bug, with three primary linemen still on the injury report, tight end David Njoku picking up an additional injury in Week 5 after missing the previous three games, and Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, the team’s two top talents on the defensive side of the ball, held out of practice with significant injuries on Wednesday. The Browns have largely been forced into immense pass volume, ranking sixth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and seventh in pass attempts per game (35.4).
Nick Chubb saw his 14-day practice window open last week in his return bid from the PUP list and started Week 6 preparations with a limited showing. He reportedly practiced again on Thursday but was fourth through running back drills. I tentatively expect him to sit one more game before making his season debut against the Bengals in Week 7. In his absence, expect Jerome Ford to continue operating as the lead back in what has been a seemingly everchanging backfield split between him and D’Onta Foreman. That said, Foreman missed practice Wednesday, something to monitor moving forward as an absence could provide additional opportunities for Ford. The Philadelphia defense has largely struggled in all phases in one of the more intricate defensive schemes in the league, something that is likely to improve as the season moves along. As things stand now, the Eagles are allowing 5.0 yards per carry (28th) and 2.45 yards before contact per attempt (also 28th).
Cleveland’s offensive line injuries have made life extremely difficult on Watson, a quarterback who tends to tuck and run at the first sign of pressure. As a result, the offense struggled immensely against the Cowboys (third in pressure rate), Jaguars (12th), Giants (ninth), and Commanders (15th), while looking slightly more capable (on tape) against the low pressure rates of the Raiders (31st). That makes a matchup against the 30th-ranked pressure rates of the Eagles noteworthy here. The return of David Njoku in Week 5 pushed the offense to heavier rates of 12-personnel, something that could revert to a high emphasis on 11-personnel should Njoku require missed time with his most recent injury. On that note, Amari Cooper leads the team handily in total snaps and route participation rate, with Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore slightly behind the team’s alpha. The Eagles are operating as a slight pass-funnel defense through four games, forcing a 57.96% opponent pass play rate (10th highest in the league). Considering Cleveland’s 64.65% overall pass rate, the state of the offensive line and backfield, and a seventh-ranked 35.4 pass attempts per game value, it is likely we see 36-38 pass attempts from Deshaun Watson here. That leaves a clear path for 9-10 targets for Cooper, albeit with an extremely wide range of outcomes considering his 13.9 aDOT (13th deepest). Cooper continues to lead the league in air yards and ranks third in air yards share (a ridiculous 49.2%), so the ceiling is definitely there, adding a solid route win rate (19th-ranked 52.7%), but he also leads the league in unrealized air yards 487, or a laughable 10.4 per target, due to Watson’s downfield struggles.
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