Kickoff Sunday, Dec 26th 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
18.25) at

Bengals (
25.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
23rd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
30th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
15th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
26th DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bengals Run D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
19th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
8th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
1st DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>
  • Tyler Huntley is priced attractively for a running QB that has shown upside with his arm.
  • The Bengals should pass more than usual.
  • Burrow’s price has fallen below $6,000 on DK.
  • Joe Mixon has played less than 70% of the snaps the past three weeks.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The 8-6 Ravens enter a pivotal division game on the back of a three-game losing streak. Jim Harbaugh’s team is approaching “total collapse” territory as they are now tied with the Bengals atop their division, and only hold a one game lead over the Browns/Steelers. Three weeks ago, it looked like the Ravens would coast to an AFC North title. Now? The winner of this game will be in the driver’s seat for the division and the loser has a real chance to miss the postseason. This is as close to a playoff game for the Ravens as they’ve had all season, and they desperately need a victory to stop the bleeding.  The upstart Bengals defense has been the reason they’ve overperformed expectations this season. The Bengals are tough to run on (10th in DVOA) and middling against the pass (17th in DVOA). There isn’t a clear path of least resistance to take, and there isn’t anything in the matchup that should tilt the Ravens away from their preferred style of play, which doesn’t change much with Lamar Jackson clone Tyler Huntley under center. The Ravens play slow (31st in situational neutral pace), and they stay slow in all situations. Expect more of the same, with the Ravens using a creative running game that utilizes a hybrid RB/QB approach from Huntley. 

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The 8-6 Bengals must come into this game feeling blessed that their opponents have been collapsing the past month. A contest that three weeks ago looked like it could be meaningless, is now close to a division championship game. The Bengals are at home, have momentum, and this game will be played in a playoff environment. The Bengals play slow (30th in situational neutral pace) and stay slow in all situations. There aren’t going to be a lot of plays between two teams that will likely play slow.

The Ravens have been stout against the run (5th in DVOA) but blasted by the pass (29th in DVOA) and are playing the rest of the year without their best secondary player (Marlon Humphries). This is one of the clearest pass funnel defenses in the league, and the Bengals coaching staff should be able to figure that out in a must-win game. The first time these two teams met, the Bengals threw 38 times (their second-highest pass attempt game of the season) and they should have a similar game plan. Expect the Bengals to stay slow, but to pass more than usual to attack the relative weakness of the Ravens defense. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a moderate total of 45.5 and is expected to be a competitive game between two teams trying to win the AFC North. The Ravens might be missing Lamar Jackson, but even if he sits, Tyler Huntley has shown enough that it’s still reasonable to think this will be a close contest that is decided late in the game. Expect both teams to play at their usual slow pace, keeping things within one score, before the winner is finally determined in the 4th quarter, possibly on the last drive or in OT. 


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Joe Burrow:

  • BAL has allowed the 7th most QB DK pts/g (20.1)
  • BAL has allowed the 2nd most QB pass yds and a 24:6 TD:INT ratio
  • Nine QBs have scored multiple TDs vs BAL
  • Burrow has scored multiple TDs in 11/14 games, including his best game of the season vs BAL (416:3:1)
  • BAL is down multiple starting defensive backs, and they started the season already down multiple starting defensive backs
  • Burrow has graded as elite vs the blitz in 2021 by PFF; BAL blitzes at 5th highest rate
  • Burrow scored 18+ DK pts in 7 of his first 8 games
  • Burrow DK scores since W9: 9.4 // 10 // 17.4 // 22.6 // 25.2 // 12.8
  • In Burrow’s four lower scores there, Mixon has scored 6 TDs
  • In Burrow’s two higher scores there, Mixon has scored once and Burrow went for 300+ yds in both
  • Despite allowing the 2nd most QB pass yds, BAL has allowed just four QBs of 300+ yds
  • Three of those four QBs threw for 400+ yds

CIN WRs:

  • BAL has faced the 4th highest aDOT (8.7)
  • Chase & Higgins both have aDOTs over 12 yds and air yds totals of 1000+ yds
  • BAL has allowed the 13th fewest WR DK pts/g, but lost another stud starter CB Marlon Humphrey two weeks ago and has been steadily bleeding more and more pts over the last month
  • 80-yd WRs vs BAL: Edwards (81) // Pittman (89:1) // Chase (201:1) // Wilson (87), Ford (84) // Mooney (121:1), Goodwin (104:1) // Landry (111) // Diontae (105:2) // DPJ (90) // MVS (98:1)
  • Eight of the 80-yd WRs have come in the last six games
  • Games of 80+ yds: Chase (4) // Higgins (4) // Boyd (3)
  • Chase yds since his 201 yds vs BAL: 32:1 // 49 // 32:1 // 39 // 52 // 77:2 // 3
  • Higgins during that same time span:  97 // 78 // 15 // 114:1 // 138:1 // 114 // 23
  • Boyd has even out-gained Chase in four of the last seven games
  • Tg since CIN’s Bye: Chase (6, 3, 8, 8, 4) // Higgins (3, 8, 14, 7, 3) // Boyd (8, 2, 7, 5, 6)
  • Chase DK pts since BAL game: 13.1 // 9.9 // 13 // 6.9 // 10.2 // 25.3 // 1.3
  • BAL has faced the 5th lowest rate of WR tg
  • BAL has allowed the highest rate of explosive passes to WRs

Joe Mixon:

  • BAL has allowed the 9th fewest RB DK pts/g (21.7) & 4th fewest RB rush yds
  • RBs with 10+ rush att vs BAL: Jacobs (10:34:2) // CEH (13:46) // Swift (14:47:1), Williams (12:42:1) // Taylor (15:53:1) // Mixon (12:59:1), Perine (11:52:1) // Cook (17:110) // Gaskin (14:31) // Monty (14:58) // Najee (21:71) // Chubb (17:59) // Jones (13:58)
  • BAL ranks 5th in def rush DVOA
  • Mixon has 10+ rush att in every game this season
  • Mixon has 16+ rush att in 10 games
  • Mixon has 20+ rush att in 4 games
  • Mixon has 5 games of 90+ rush yds, but has topped out at 58 yds in the last three vs rush defenses ranked 31st, 2nd, 23rd
  • Mixon has the highest % of team rush att inside-10 & inside-5
  • BAL has allowed the 9th most RB rec yds
  • Mixon had 45+ rec yds three times in a four-game stretch mid-season, but has totaled 49 rec yds in the other 12 games
  • Mixon has 25+ DK pts in six games, scoring 10 TDs in those games
  • Mixon’s DK pts in other nine: 8.1 // 10.4 // 13.7 // 10.5 // 11.9 // 10.4 // 8.8 // 7.0

BAL QBs:

  • In 41 games, Lamar has 14 games of 30+ DK pts and 30 games of 20+ DK pts
  • Lamar has scored under 20 DK pts in his last three straight full games
  • CIN has allowed an average amount of QB DK pts/g, but has allowed the 5th most QB pass yds
  • Lamar has passed for 250+ yds in 6/11 games
  • Huntley has passed for 219, 270, 215 yds
  • Just 6 of 14 QBs have scored multiple TDs vs CIN
  • Lamar has multiple TDs in just three games this year
  • Huntley has scored TDs of 0, 1, 4 and turned the ball over 1, 2, 0 times
  • QB rushing vs CIN: Dalton (25), Fields (31) // Lawrence (36:1) // Lamar (88)
  • Lamar rushing: 86 // 107:2 // 58 // 28 // 62 // 51 // 88 // 120 // 39 // 68 // 55
  • Huntley rushing: 40 // 45 // 73:2
  • Lamar career rushing vs CIN: 119 // 152:1 // 65:1 // 3 // 97 // 88

BAL WRs:

  • Brown scored 19+ DK pts in 6 of first 8 games
  • Brown since has scored 9.7 // 13.1 // 10.5 // 9.1 // 14.3 DK pts
  • Brown has 10 games of 7+ tg
  • Brown career vs CIN: 4:80:1 // 6:77:1 // 5:41:2 // 5:80:1
  • Bateman had 7:103 vs CLE; he’s averaging 7.1 DK pts in his other 8 games
  • CIN has allowed the 12th fewest WR DK pts/g (35.1)
  • 80+ yd WRs vs CIN: Thielen (92:2) // Claypool (96) // Viska (99) // Adams (206:1) // Brown (80:1), Bateman (80) // Crowder (84) // DPJ (86:1) // Diontae (95), Claypool (82) // Williams (110), Guyton (90:1)
  • Tg in Huntley’s three games of action: Brown (–, 8, 14) // Bateman (6, 8, 2) // Duvernay (6, 5, 3) // Watkins (4, 2, –)

Mark Andrews:

  • Andrews tg since Bye: 10, 8, 10, 10, 9, 11, 13
  • Andrews has 5+ rec in 10/14 games
  • Since his 20 yds in W1, Andrews has over 40 yds in every game since
  • In those last 13, he has gone over 60 yds in 9 of them, and 100 yds in 4 of them
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs CIN: Conklin (41) // Hock (74) // Andrews (48) // Waller (116) // Freiermuth (40:1) // Kittle (151:1) // Fant (57), Albert O (58)
  • Andrews has scored 8 TDs (10 & 7 TDs in 2019 & 2020)
  • TEs to score vs CIN: Freiermuth (x2), Kroft, Njoku, Moreau, Kittle
  • CIN has allowed the 5th highest yds/att to TEs
  • Andrews vs CIN with Lamar: 1:19 // 6:99 // 6:53:2 // 6:56:1 // 4:27 // 3:48
  • Andrews in Huntley’s three games: 8:73 // 11:115:1 // 10:136:2

BAL RBs:

  • Freeman’s yds since Bye: 83:1 // 58 // 80:1 // 60 // 97:1 // 72 // 24
  • Murray out-carried Freeman last week for the first time since Week 5
  • CIN has allowed the 12th most RB DK pts/g (24.7)
  • CIN has allowed the 7th fewest RB rush yds, but the 5th most RB rec yds
  • Freeman has just three games fo 30+ rec yds (34, 31, 45)
  • BAL RBs vs CIN: Freeman (4:14:1, 3:25) // Williams (2:10, 2:24)