Broncos (

21.25) at
Raiders (

20.25)

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Both teams enter this game at 7-7 and are very much alive for a playoff spot, but the loser of this game will likely not be able to dig out of the hole.
• Drew Lock starting at quarterback for Denver adds some intrigue and volatility to this game.
• Las Vegas has scored under 20 points in six of their last seven games and is playing on an unexpected short week.
• The Raiders “strength” on offense matches up poorly with the Denver defense.
• The Raiders defense has given up 30+ points in four of their last six games.
• These teams combined for 58 points in Week 6. However, players who played key roles in that game who will not play this week include Henry Ruggs, Darren Waller, Kenyan Drake, and Teddy Bridgewater.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

This season has seen Denver use a very conservative approach with Teddy Bridgewater managing games and the Broncos focusing on the 1-2 punch of their running game behind Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. Since their Week 11 bye, the Broncos are running the ball at the 5th highest situation-neutral rate in the league. After a scary situation in Week 15, Teddy Bridgewater is out, and Drew Lock is in for the Broncos. This change adds more dynamics and uncertainty to this game than we would usually see in a Week 16 divisional matchup. Lock has always been a “YOLO” quarterback who throws aggressively downfield and takes chances. This is primarily what cost him his job, however, and he claims to have “grown” as a quarterback – which I would assume to mean he has realized that he can’t throw the ball to the other team so often.

The strategy from the Broncos will likely center around hiding Lock and not putting him in a position to make many of the same mistakes that have haunted him in the past. The Broncos have a much stronger running game now than they did the last time Lock started and will try to use their elite running back tandem to take the load off his plate. I would expect Denver to leverage Lock’s arm strength by using play-action to take calculated shots down the field, but not to put him in a lot of situations where he is making reads and going through progressions unless they are forced to. This is a great audition opportunity for Lock to prove to other teams he deserves a second chance, and he couldn’t ask for a much better opportunity than in a dome, against a struggling defense, with a strong supporting cast and running game. (Full disclosure, I am biased and want Lock to smash in this spot because the last time we saw him start a game, it was also against the Raiders in Week 17 of the 2020 season when he did this, which led me to the biggest win of my DFS career.)

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders got a pretty raw deal having their game moved from Saturday to Monday last week and losing two days of rest while also having to travel. This is a huge game if they want any chance of making the playoffs and is, quite frankly, the best chance they have left on the schedule for a win. The Raiders have had some absolute duds in the last few weeks, but it should be noted that at least two of those were against a Chiefs team that they just could not match up with any worse from a personnel and philosophy standpoint.

The Raiders continued to pass at a high rate in a Week 15 win over the Browns and now face a tough Denver pass defense on a short week of rest. Las Vegas has had a top-3 situation-neutral pass rate over the course of the season and over the last four weeks. At this point in the season, the Raiders have shown their preferred method of attack is throwing at a nearly two-to-one ratio regardless of opponent or personnel available as they have not changed their approach despite significant losses. While their pass rate has not changed, the way in which they attack through the air has changed significantly. Through six weeks, Derek Carr was 6th in the league with an average depth of target of 9.8. Since then, Carr’s average throw has been only 7.6 yards downfield as the team has adjusted to the loss of Henry Ruggs and, subsequently, Darren Waller. This quick-hitting, short-area passing game will be the clear focus for the Raiders again this week as the Denver secondary makes it difficult to throw the ball to the outside and down the field, and their run defense is strong enough to make the underwhelming Raiders run game unlikely to be consistently successful.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Raiders play at a slightly above-average pace, while the Broncos are one of the slower-paced teams in the league. Vegas has this game as a “pick ‘em,” meaning it is likely that neither team takes total control and forces the other to drastically change their means of attack until late in the game.

If the Broncos take control of this game, it will be slowly but surely and would entail their defense stalling the Raiders offense and their running game pounding away at the Raiders run defense. The Bengals played the Broncos last week in a tough, defensive battle that showed those two teams are pretty evenly matched and have similar philosophies. I bring this up because the Bengals gave the blueprint the Broncos will be trying to implement in this game when they played the Raiders a few weeks ago. In that game, Joe Mixon ran for over 120 yards, and two touchdowns as the Bengals gradually gained control and walked away with a 32-13 victory. If Drew Lock can take care of the football and avoid mistakes, the Broncos could find similar success.

For the Raiders, the best chance of taking control is from Lock making those big mistakes and handing them short fields. Their offense has struggled so much lately (scoring under 20 points in six of the last seven games) that it is hard to envision a scenario where they explode offensively to take control unless the points are being handed to them on a silver platter.

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