Kickoff Sunday, Dec 26th 4:25pm Eastern

Broncos (
21.25) at

Raiders (
20.25)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
8th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
23rd DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
4th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
20th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
15th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
21st DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
23rd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
14th DVOA/19th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • Both teams enter this game at 7-7 and are very much alive for a playoff spot, but the loser of this game will likely not be able to dig out of the hole.
  • Drew Lock starting at quarterback for Denver adds some intrigue and volatility to this game.
  • Las Vegas has scored under 20 points in six of their last seven games and is playing on an unexpected short week.
  • The Raiders “strength” on offense matches up poorly with the Denver defense.
  • The Raiders defense has given up 30+ points in four of their last six games.
  • These teams combined for 58 points in Week 6. However, players who played key roles in that game who will not play this week include Henry Ruggs, Darren Waller, Kenyan Drake, and Teddy Bridgewater.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

This season has seen Denver use a very conservative approach with Teddy Bridgewater managing games and the Broncos focusing on the 1-2 punch of their running game behind Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. Since their Week 11 bye, the Broncos are running the ball at the 5th highest situation-neutral rate in the league. After a scary situation in Week 15, Teddy Bridgewater is out, and Drew Lock is in for the Broncos. This change adds more dynamics and uncertainty to this game than we would usually see in a Week 16 divisional matchup. Lock has always been a “YOLO” quarterback who throws aggressively downfield and takes chances. This is primarily what cost him his job, however, and he claims to have “grown” as a quarterback – which I would assume to mean he has realized that he can’t throw the ball to the other team so often.

The strategy from the Broncos will likely center around hiding Lock and not putting him in a position to make many of the same mistakes that have haunted him in the past. The Broncos have a much stronger running game now than they did the last time Lock started and will try to use their elite running back tandem to take the load off his plate. I would expect Denver to leverage Lock’s arm strength by using play-action to take calculated shots down the field, but not to put him in a lot of situations where he is making reads and going through progressions unless they are forced to. This is a great audition opportunity for Lock to prove to other teams he deserves a second chance, and he couldn’t ask for a much better opportunity than in a dome, against a struggling defense, with a strong supporting cast and running game. (Full disclosure, I am biased and want Lock to smash in this spot because the last time we saw him start a game, it was also against the Raiders in Week 17 of the 2020 season when he did this, which led me to the biggest win of my DFS career.)

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders got a pretty raw deal having their game moved from Saturday to Monday last week and losing two days of rest while also having to travel. This is a huge game if they want any chance of making the playoffs and is, quite frankly, the best chance they have left on the schedule for a win. The Raiders have had some absolute duds in the last few weeks, but it should be noted that at least two of those were against a Chiefs team that they just could not match up with any worse from a personnel and philosophy standpoint.

The Raiders continued to pass at a high rate in a Week 15 win over the Browns and now face a tough Denver pass defense on a short week of rest. Las Vegas has had a top-3 situation-neutral pass rate over the course of the season and over the last four weeks. At this point in the season, the Raiders have shown their preferred method of attack is throwing at a nearly two-to-one ratio regardless of opponent or personnel available as they have not changed their approach despite significant losses. While their pass rate has not changed, the way in which they attack through the air has changed significantly. Through six weeks, Derek Carr was 6th in the league with an average depth of target of 9.8. Since then, Carr’s average throw has been only 7.6 yards downfield as the team has adjusted to the loss of Henry Ruggs and, subsequently, Darren Waller. This quick-hitting, short-area passing game will be the clear focus for the Raiders again this week as the Denver secondary makes it difficult to throw the ball to the outside and down the field, and their run defense is strong enough to make the underwhelming Raiders run game unlikely to be consistently successful.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Raiders play at a slightly above-average pace, while the Broncos are one of the slower-paced teams in the league. Vegas has this game as a “pick ‘em,” meaning it is likely that neither team takes total control and forces the other to drastically change their means of attack until late in the game.

If the Broncos take control of this game, it will be slowly but surely and would entail their defense stalling the Raiders offense and their running game pounding away at the Raiders run defense. The Bengals played the Broncos last week in a tough, defensive battle that showed those two teams are pretty evenly matched and have similar philosophies. I bring this up because the Bengals gave the blueprint the Broncos will be trying to implement in this game when they played the Raiders a few weeks ago. In that game, Joe Mixon ran for over 120 yards, and two touchdowns as the Bengals gradually gained control and walked away with a 32-13 victory. If Drew Lock can take care of the football and avoid mistakes, the Broncos could find similar success.

For the Raiders, the best chance of taking control is from Lock making those big mistakes and handing them short fields. Their offense has struggled so much lately (scoring under 20 points in six of the last seven games) that it is hard to envision a scenario where they explode offensively to take control unless the points are being handed to them on a silver platter.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Third lowest total of Week 16
  • Narrowest spread on the week
  • DEN has held opponents to 16 or fewer pts in four of the past six games
  • LV has scored 16 or fewer pts in five of their past six games
  • Their opponents have scored 30+ pts in two of those games, and 40+ pts in another two
  • DEN’s defense holds opponents to the second fewest points per game (17.4)
  • LV’s defense allows opponents to score the third most points per game (26.7)
  • Per numberFire, DEN ranks 27th in adjusted seconds per play (30.9) and 18th in adjusted pass rate (56.9%)
  • LV ranks 15th in adjusted seconds per play (29.2) and third in adjusted pass rate (64.2%)

Drew Lock

  • Ranks 68th in PFF passing grade (albeit with only 45 dropbacks)
  • Career average of 199 passing yards per game with a 59% completion percentage, 1.14 TDs & 1 INT
  • Averaging 15.57 DK ppg in 18 games
  • Scored 4x his Week 16 salary ($5,100) five times: 20.82 // 26.6 // 27.26 // 27.86 // 33.22
  • LV ranks 20th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.1)
  • Eight opposing QBs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. LV in 14 games

DEN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Courtland Sutton 85.8% // Tim Patrick 83.4% // Noah Fant 75.7% // Jerry Jeudy 64.2% // Albert Okwuegbunam 49.2%
  • Target share: Sutton 18.2% // Fant 16.5% // Patrick 15.2% // Jeudy 10.1% // Okwuegbunam 7.7%
  • Among qualified WRs, Sutton ranks 13th in air yard market share and 25th in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • Week 16 DK salary ($4,200) is his lowest on the season
  • He’s scored 4x that salary three times in 14 games: 23.4 vs. LV // 27.9 @ JAX // 28 @ PIT (all three games were in the first six games)
  • Patrick has scored 4x his Week 16 salary ($4,500) once in 14 games: 18.5 @ DAL
  • Jeudy has yet to score 3x his Week 16 salary ($5,000)
  • LV ranks fourth in DK ppg allowed to WRs (30.6)
  • Four opposing WRs have scored 20+ vs. LV: Cedrick Wilson 20.4 // Diontae Johnson 22.5 // Courtland Sutton 23.4 // Tyreek Hill 27.5
  • Among qualified TEs, Fant ranks 10th in target share, 14th in air yard market share, and 11th in WOPR
  • Fant leads Okwuegbunam in targets per game, 5.9 to 3.3
  • Fant’s DK salary range is $4,200 – $5,000 ($4,400 in Week 16)
  • His notable DK scores: 12.2 // 13.3 // 16.6 // 24.7
  • Okwuegbunam has scored double digit DK pts twice: 10.7 vs. PHI // 15.1 vs. DET
  • LV ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (16.9)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Evan Engram 12.8 // Logan Thomas 13.8 // Dalton Schultz 15.6 // Mike Gesicki 18.6 // Jared Cook 19 // Travis Kelce 22.9 // Noah Fant 24.7

DEN RBs

  • Snap share: Javonte Williams 50.7% // Melvin Gordon 47%
  • Target share: Williams 10.3% // Gordon 6.7%
  • Touches per game: Gordon 15.2 // Williams 14.9
  • Among qualified RBs, Williams ranks 22nd in RBOPR
  • Gordon ranks 25th
  • Williams is averaging 13.52 DK ppg
  • Gordon is averaging 13.49 DK ppg
  • Williams has scored 4x his Week 16 salary ($6,100) once in 14 games: 32.8 @ KC
  • Gordon has scored 4x his Week 16 salary ($5,800) twice in 13 games: 23.8 @ NYG // 26.1 vs. DET
  • LV ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (29.5)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Antonio Gibson 22.1 // Joe Mixon 27.3 // Darrel Williams 32.4 // Austin Ekeler 32.5

Derek Carr

  • Ranks 10th in PFF passing grade
  • Ranks third in adjusted completion percentage
  • Averaging 297 passing yards per game (career high)
  • His 18.3 DK ppg ranks 13th
  • DK salary range of $5,300 – $6,100 ($5,800 in Week 16)
  • Scored 4x his Week 16 salary five times in 14 games: 24.02 @ DAL // 24.54 @ DEN // 25.24 vs. MIA // 27.18 @ PIT // 28 vs. BAL
  • DEN ranks third in DK ppg allowed to QBs (16.4)
  • Four opposing QBs have scored 20+ vs. DEN: Daniel Jones 22.38 // Lamar Jackson 22.44 // Derek Carr 24.54 // Justin Herbert 24.72

LV Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Bryan Edwards 76.3% // Hunter Renfrow 67.2% // Foster Moreau 61.6% // Darren Waller 58.8% // Zay Jones 50.5% // DeSean Jackson 27.4%
  • Target share: Renfrow 20.8% // Waller 15.7% // Edwards 9.7% // Jones 8.2% // Moreau 6.9% // Jackson 4.9%
  • Among qualified WRs, Renfrow ranks 23rd in target share
  • His 15.6 DK ppg ranks 20th
  • His DK salary debuted at $3,500 in Week 1
  • In Week 16, it’s up to $6,800
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times in 14 games: 22.2 vs. WAS // 24.6 @ DAL // 32.7 @ KC
  • Edwards’s Week 16 DK salary is a season low ($3,200)
  • He’s scored double digits four times in 12 games: 11.9 vs. MIA // 12.1 vs. BAL // 13.3 vs. PHI // 17.8 vs. KC
  • Jones has scored double digits three times in 11 games: 11.3 @ DAL // 12.6 vs. BAL // 12.7 @ CLE
  • Jackson scored 22.2 @ DAL, but has otherwise not hit 5 pts as a Raider
  • DEN ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to WRs (32.5)
  • Four opposing WRs have scored 20+ vs. DEN: Tyler Boyd 20.6 // Devonta Smith 22.6 // Chase Claypool 27 // Sterling Shepard 27.3
  • Waller is doubtful to play in Week 16
  • He had been averaging 8.4 targets per game
  • Moreau’s targets since Waller was last active in Week 12: 3 // 6 // 9
  • Waller was averaging 13.53 DK ppg
  • Moreau’s DK log in those same games: 4.4 // 4.3 // 13.5
  • DEN ranks third in DK ppg allowed to TEs (8.2)
  • Three opposing TEs have scored double digits vs. DEN: Jared Cook 10.5 // Darren Waller 10.9 // Mark Andrews 11.7

Josh Jacobs

  • Leading the RBs in snap share (51.9%), target share (10.3%), and touches per game (16.2)
  • Among qualified RBs, he ranks 12th in rush share, sixth in goal line share, 10th in target share, 10th in WOPR, and ninth in RBOPR
  • His 14.6 DK ppg ranks 20th
  • Narrow DK salary range of $5,800 – $6,300 ($6,000 in Week 16)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 16 salary once: 24 vs. WAS in Week 13
  • DEN ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to RBs (21.1)
  • Four opposing RBs have scored 20+ vs. DEN: Kenyan Drake 21.3 // Austin Ekeler 21.9 // Najee Harris 25.2 // D’Ernest Johnson 27.8