Bills (

21.25) at
Patriots (

22.25)

Editor’s Note: On Friday morning, the Bills announced that OL Cody Ford and WR Gabriel Davis were added to the Reserve/COVID-19 list.

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• First off, this game will not be played in 40mph winds with gusts over 60 mph – but that’s also kind of a salient point, as this game is not likely to look the same as the last time these two teams played.
• Wide receiver Cole Beasley will miss this contest on the COVID list while starting left tackle Dion Dawkins and backup left guard Jon Feliciano are also on the league’s COVID list; Star Lotulelei has yet to practice this week while tending to a personal matter.
• Kendrick Bourne remains on the league’s COVID list but is reportedly asymptomatic, giving him a chance to return in time for Sunday; Rhamondre Stevenson (illness) and Nelson Agholor (concussion) have yet to practice this week.

How Buffalo Will Try To Win ::

The Bills lead the league in pass rate with the score within seven points at 68%, a rate that drops to 56% when playing with a lead. The Patriots have forced the seventh-deepest average depth of target while forcing the second-lowest completion rate and 13^th-ranked yards allowed per completion. They have also allowed only 1.1 passing touchdowns per game and have generated the second-most interceptions per game (1.4). That’s pretty incredible to have generated more interceptions than they have allowed passing scores. That said, it is highly probable we see the Bills attempt to win this game through the air.

The backfield has transitioned into a workhorse situation over the previous two weeks, with Devin Singletary handling 82% and 93% snap rates with Zack Moss held as a healthy inactive. That said, the last time Moss was active was against these same Patriots, so keep an eye on the inactive list leading up to the first kick. Should Moss be once again held out, Singletary would likely have this backfield largely to himself. That also said, this does not set up the same way as it did last week when Singletary saw a robust 23 running back opportunities. Expect the Bills to attempt less than 20 running back rush attempts. The matchup on the ground yields a slightly above average 4.38 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Patriots defense allowing 24.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Quite the strength-on-strength matchup we have here, with the league’s 11^th-ranked pass offense (DVOA) against the league’s third-ranked pass defense (DVOA). With Cole Beasley out and Emmanuel Sanders returning to practice, expect Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis to man the perimeter out of 11-personnel formations, with Sanders likely shifting to the perimeter in heavy formations, a slight dent to the expected snap rate of Davis – that is assuming Sanders is back to full health. Tight end Dawson Knox has worked his way into a near every-down role over the second half of the season. The matchup tilts expected production to the deeper areas of the field but also induces a good deal of uncertainty, making any of these pass-catchers best played at low ownership.

How New England Will Try to win ::

Although we can’t expect the Patriots to approach game-planning in the same way they did the last time these two teams met, we should expect something along the same lines – high rush rates and dynamic run-blocking designed to rush off the edge and off tackle (away from Star Lotulelei, who is currently not practicing, and inside linebacker Tremaine Edmunds). When forced to throw, Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry set up the best to be able to take advantage of the high man rates shown by the Bills. Either way, we know the Patriots would like to shorten the field on both sides of the ball while cracking down in the red zone on defense. Expect a slow pace of play and elevated rush rates.

There are some significant question marks surrounding this Patriots backfield, as Rhamondre Stevenson has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) and Damien Harris is coming off a missed contest. We should expect the Patriots to once again lean into the run game here but we’re highly unlikely to see the same level of output as the last time these two teams played. Said another way, look for the Patriots to build their offensive game plan around the run but in different ways than in Week 13. The expected snap rates depend largely on health and it’s too early to speculate on who would be of the most utility here. Assuming all backs play, we’re likely to see a three-way timeshare amongst Harris, Stevenson, and Brandon Bolden, with Bolden primarily being used on obvious passing downs. The matchup on the ground yields a putrid 3.905 net-adjusted line yards metric but the primary strength of this Bills defense is up the middle, and nose tackle Star Lotulelei has yet to practice this week.

The pass game also has a good deal of unknowns surrounding it with both Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne yet to practice this week. Both are primarily utilized as package wide receivers, as the only pass-catchers to play near every-down roles are Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry. That said, should either miss, it would open up additional playing time for punt returner Gunner Olszewski, who could become an interesting piece at min price. It would also likely open up additional perimeter snaps for N’Keal Harry, who has largely underwhelmed throughout his career and should be thought of primarily as a run-blocker at this point. With all pass-catchers healthy, expect a rather wide timeshare outside of Meyers and Henry. The matchup through the air could not be more difficult against a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

Likeliest Game flow ::

Expect another field position battle from these two divisional rivals in their respective quests for playoff seeding (the Patriots currently sit in the second spot in the AFC, one game behind the Chiefs, while the Bills are only one game back from the Patriots and currently in the seventh and final playoff spot). Both teams rank in the top half of the league in average time of possession, meaning we shouldn’t expect more than the 126 total plays these two teams combine for this year. Overall, this game shouldn’t be one to go out of our way to attack, with the most interest from me coming from Bills pass-catchers, which depends highly on expected ownership, or the Patriots backfield, which depends highly on the game-day statuses of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris.

---

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

---

DFS+ Interpretation ::