Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Pace is a major concern in this game with both teams bleeding the clock and operating methodically.
• Cleveland’s playoff chances are on the line, with a loss likely knocking them out of contention.
• Green Bay is looking to hold on to the #1 seed and will be looking to make quick work of the Browns and get out of here in one piece.
• The strength of the Cleveland offense matches up pretty well with the “path of least resistance” offered by the Packers.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

If the Browns want to make a return trip to the playoffs, they are going to have to earn it. Sitting at 7-7 and playing on a short week with COVID issues still hovering, a trip to Lambeau for a nationally televised game is the last thing they need right now. Baker Mayfield is likely to be cleared for this game, but regardless of his status, the Browns will need some magic to have a chance here.

Cleveland is 6th in the league in situation-neutral run-rate, and with Baker Mayfield set to be taken off the COVID list on Friday, they are likely to become even more run-heavy in this matchup. The Packers are ranked 25th in run defense DVOA while their pass defense has been very good against middling competition, especially at home. The Browns have so many unknowns, with 18 players still on the COVID list (as of Thursday) and uncertainty around exactly how many of those will be available so we should expect them to continue to lean heavily into their identity in this matchup with their season on the line. Many of the Browns issues have been with offensive linemen, making communication and protection issues more likely, which is just another reason to lean on the running game. The Browns will obviously still have to pass some, but we should expect short-area work and screens to be their primary focus. If Jarvis Landry is cleared in time to play, that would obviously help provide a “safety blanket” for Mayfield, and the Browns will also look to take some intermediate shots off play action with extra blockers held in to protect the quarterback.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers are rolling this season at 11-2 in games Aaron Rodgers has played in. They narrowly survived last week against a pesky Ravens team but the ball is in their court this week as they are at home on Christmas day against a Browns team that is playing on five days’ rest and will not have practiced with their starting quarterback in two weeks. The Packers have the #1 seed in the NFC at the moment and their focus is to “survive and advance” through each week at this point to hold on to their playoff positioning and perhaps give them a chance at a “double-bye” if they can lock up the #1 seed before Week 18 and take the week off against the Lions.

The Packers play at one of the slowest paces in the league and we should expect much of the same here. The Browns play a lot of zone type coverages but will likely need to dial up some blitzes against the Packers in order to get pressure. If they sit back in zones and give Rodgers time, he will pick them apart. The reason the Packers play at such a slow pace is because Rodgers is so good at the pre-snap and identifies what the defense is doing to get the Packers into the right play call. The Browns are unlikely to implement a strategy like the “17 Bulldog” tactic employed by the Ravens where they lined up two or even three defenders on Davante Adams every play. This means that the offensive engine of the Packers will operate in that role again here, with a high likelihood of targets attacking the holes in the Browns zones or quick hitters against man coverage that the Browns will be forced to play if and when they blitz. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have been complementing each other very well recently and should combine for 25 to 30 opportunities (carries plus targets) again in this game. The respect Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams demand plus the scheme of the Packers running game will allow them to have moderate to above-average success on the ground, despite the Browns run defense being a relative strength.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has all the makings of a boring, slow-paced island game (something we have seen far too much of this year). Both of these teams are in the bottom-five in the league in situation-neutral pace of play, and the way in which they operate keeps the game clock moving as they are bleeding the play clock. As mentioned earlier, the Browns are built around their running game, and this matchup will encourage them to lean into that strength. They should also have modest success throwing the ball off play-action, and in the short areas, meaning that they should sustain some drives that kill a lot of clock and keep them at least “in the game” to the point where they don’t have to abandon who they are. The Packers, meanwhile, are content to play slowly and use their two-headed backfield at a high rate to preserve and protect Aaron Rodgers. Their slow pace of play allows Aaron Rodgers to acquire as much information as he can about the Browns zone schemes and get the Packers in the correct play calls. Rodgers is so efficient throwing the ball that the result is a running clock after nearly every Packers offensive play. The likeliest game flow here is a quick moving (as in, very few plays) and relatively close game in the first half with the Packers gradually taking control and pulling away in the second half. The Packers are not a “step on their throat” type of offense and will keep running the clock once they have a lead, making it likely that Cleveland is able to hang around in that 7-to-10 point range where the game looks closer on the scoreboard than it actually is.

saturday slate DFS breakdown::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This is a huge game for playoff purposes in both the NFC and AFC, with the Colts in the thick of the wild card race and Arizona tied for the division lead and within striking distance of the #1 seed.
• These teams operate with opposing paces: Arizona operates as a spread team with tempo, while Indianapolis plays smash mouth football and bleeds the clock.
• Relative to the rest of the league, there are very few COVID issues currently affecting the outlook of this game.
• Arizona will have to find a way to sustain offense without DeAndre Hopkins, something they were unable to do in Week 15.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts have been on a tear since fully embracing Jonathan Taylor as the engine of their offense and backbone of their identity. The Cardinals have a strong defense in all aspects, but their pass defense would be considered their “strength” by almost any metric and the Colts will be happy to continue their run-first mindset in this matchup. The Colts imposed their will on a well-coached Patriots team in Week 15 and will be happy to do the same on the road against a team that is reeling from a shocking loss to the Lions. 

Jonathan Taylor has been getting some MVP buzz in the last week or two. While that is probably going a little too far (and not giving the Colts offensive line enough credit), the reality is that perhaps no other non-QB in the league has the same impact on the identity of his team as Taylor does. The Colts are running the ball at an incredible 60% situation-neutral rate since Week 11. In their huge Week 15 win over the Patriots, Taylor carried the ball 29 times and put the team on his back. Taylor has had 29 or more opportunities (carries plus targets) in four of the last five games, with the only exception coming against the Bucs and their “pass funnel” defense that loaded the box and gave the Colts no choice but to throw on their RPO (run-pass option) plays. In another must-win game and a matchup that forces teams towards the run, it would be shocking for Taylor not to see another monster workload in this game. The extent of the Colts passing game will be a spread attack that we are used to with Michael Pittman being the one player who could see a concentrated target share. Pittman has four games this season where he saw double-digit targets, and all of those games were Colts losses that averaged 56.5 total points. This game has a very close spread and a 49 point total, making it very likely that this turns into one of those high-volume games for Pittman.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Week 15 was an absolute train wreck for the Cardinals. In control of the division and tied for the #1 seed, Arizona didn’t just lose but they were dominated by the Lions in all facets of the game. Kliff Kingsbury made some embarrassingly conservative decisions and the offense as a whole looked lost without DeAndre Hopkins, and the defense made Jared Goff look like a Pro Bowl QB again. The loss of Hopkins is a big deal for this team. While his role has not been fantasy-friendly for quite some time, his presence as a true alpha receiver has dictated coverage and provided stability for the receiving corps. Without him, they are left with Rondale Moore’s gadget work and whatever Zach Ertz has left in the tank at this point in his career in the short areas of the field. Meanwhile, AJ Green and Christian Kirk are fine but are not difference makers that are going to make things difficult for a defense.

The Colts run defense is very strong. What makes them so strong is a good defensive front and speedy, athletic linebackers. This matches up very well with a Cardinals running game that is built on spreading teams out and beating them with speed. The status of James Conner will be important for this game as his north-south, smashmouth style would likely be more effective than the style of the shifty Chase Edmonds. The Cardinals will likely have to let Kyler Murray use his legs more often, something he has been doing more of since returning from injury with seven rushing attempts per game. If the Cardinals want to take control of this game, they will have to get aggressive vertically against the weakness of the Colts defense because the “horizontal raid” isn’t going to get it done against Darius Leonard and the athletic Colts defense. They will sniff out and shut down wide runs and quick, short passes, forcing Murray to make plays with his legs and make them pay down the field with shots to Kirk, Green, Ertz, and possibly Antoine Wesley.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Kliff Kingsbury has exposed himself as a conservative, scared coach in a lot of spots over the last couple of years. If he doesn’t open it up in this spot, that will be the final nail in the coffin for me in expecting him to ever change. As laid out above, the Cardinals need to leverage Murray’s strengths and the defensive weakness of the Colts (downfield passing) if they want to act like the high octane offense that got them out to an 8-1 record before struggling recently. The Colts played a lot of shell defense against the Bucs and Bills, but I would expect them to be more aggressive against this Cardinals offense that has appeared to be playing on its heels recently (and whenever they have been without Hopkins).

The combination of the Colts heavy run-rate and the Cardinals likely insisting on their usual horizontal raid approach makes this game’s likeliest scenario entail a game that may get there on the scoreboard by the end of the day, but will have a hard time drastically surpassing the type of game implied by the Vegas spread and total. With so much on the line, it would be surprising to see either team moving away from “who they are” at this point in the season, and both defenses are strong enough to keep things from getting out of hand in either direction.

saturday slate DFS breakdown::

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>

• The Giants will be deciding their QB midweek.
• Saquon Barkley played 59% of the snaps last week.
• Jalen Hurts is unlikely to throw over 30 times.
• The Eagles backfield was a timeshare last week.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 4-10 Giants come into this game at the tail end of a lost year. Things could not have gone much worse for the G-Men. They fired their inept offensive coordinator midseason, lost Saquon Barkley for six weeks (he may never be the same), have a pack of glass figurines at WR, and placed Daniel Jones on the IR with a mysterious neck injury that wasn’t severe enough to drive him from the game in which he sustained it but was bad enough to end his season. Joe Judge’s team is a mess, and they are going to struggle to win any games down the stretch.

This week, the G-men get an Eagles defense that has been below average against the pass (24^th in DVOA), and middling against the run (15^th in DVOA). Freddie Kitchens is doing his best to install a new offense on the fly with no consistency at QB, and one of the worst O-lines in football. The Giants are still playing fast (8^th in situational neutral pace), which is a slight uptick since Freddie Kitchens took over, but they are running a lot of inefficient plays. The Giants are going to keep trying to figure out what works, with the starting QB situation “to be determined during practice this week,” according to Joe Judge. 

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The 7-7 Eagles come into Week 16 having gone 4-1 in their last five games, with their only loss coming in a poor letdown game against these Giants. The Eagles made a clear decision in Week 6 to change their play style and limit Jalen Hurts pass attempts. Since then, Hurts has never been asked to throw over 35 times, and the Eagles have established a clear identity that is reminiscent of the Ravens during Lamar Jackson’s early years. The Eagles play fast (5^th in situational neutral pace), but slow down if they’re ahead (21^st in pace). The tendency to come out fast and slow down when leading makes the Eagles a team that can create shootouts when their opponent keeps up, but they are unlikely to reach a ceiling game in contests they easily control. The G-men have a defense that is terrible on the ground (28^th in DVOA), and middling against the pass (13^th in DVOA), which plays into the hands of how the Eagles want to attack. They are highly likely to play in their preferred method of using an up-tempo run game where their QB functions as a hybrid RB that can throw off play fakes. The Eagles style is particularly effective against teams that struggle to stop the run, and they are set up well to have success in this matchup. Expect the Eagles to play their usual style, before slowing way down in the second half with a multiple touchdown lead.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low total of 40.5 because the G-men are sporting an ugly 15.25 team total. That makes sense since they have scored a pathetic 10/13/9/21/6 points in their last five games. The Giants are unlikely to keep up, and that drags down the entire game environment. That most likely game flow is the Eagles come out running their up-tempo offense right down the Giants throat, before pumping the breaks and sucking the life out of the game in the second half. The Giants did manage to win the last meeting but that was at home with Daniel Jones still playing, in a game where the Eagles were flat.

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The game of the week as far as potential game environment is concerned.
• Vikings see Dalvin Cook head to the COVID list a day after activating Alexander Mattison from the COVID list (of note here, quarterback Kirk Cousins is also not vaccinated). (UPDATE: no changes late Thursday evening – just Dalvin on the COVID list).
• The Rams are down to “just” six players on the COVID list. They were up to 29 (!!!) last week, most notably tight end Tyler Higbee and safety Jordan Fuller. (UPDATE: no changes late Thursday evening).
• Cam Akers had his 21-day practice window surprisingly opened on Wednesday but it is unlikely he immediately steps into a massive workload even if fully activated.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams suddenly find themselves atop the NFC West and just one game back from the Packers (lose tie-breaker) for the top overall spot in the NFC which is quite impressive considering they’ve been chasing the Cardinals all season. The two biggest stories out of Los Angeles are Cam Akers’ 21-day practice window being opened (Akers has missed the entire season after tearing his ACL before the season began) and Tyler Higbee’s inability to clear the league’s COVID list (as of Thursday). Keep an eye on the respective statuses of these two players as we inch closer to the weekend. The Rams run the league’s fastest situation-neutral offense and sixth-fastest offense overall this season, incorporating above average pass rates (11^th overall and sixth with the score within seven points) along the way. They check in with the most points per drive, fourth-most yards per drive, and a fifth-ranked overall drive success rate this season. Minnesota ranks middle of the pack in most defensive drive metrics but has ceded 24.4 points per game (23rd), has allowed the third-most total yards per game, and ranks poorly in both rush and pass defensive metrics.

Sony Michel continued to start last week with Darrell Henderson back in the fold, taking every running back opportunity over the first two drives before Henderson saw his first touch. Cam Akers could possibly return, but for what it’s worth, I highly doubt he is active this week, with a much higher likelihood of the team holding him out until Week 17 or 18 in an attempt to get him some live game reps before the playoffs. The bottom line is there is a wide range of outcomes to consider when picking through this backfield. The likeliest scenario yields Akers inactive, Henderson operating as the change of pace back, while Michel draws another start. Even then, there is a legitimate path to Henderson being more involved in his second game back from injury. The matchup on the ground yields an absolutely elite 4.74 net-adjusted line yards metric on the backs of a 26-spot delta in run game efficiency (Rams rank 6^th on offense while the Vikings rank 32^nd on defense).

The money-makers of this offense come through the air as Cooper Kupp stands as the far and away top wide receiver on the season, Odell Beckham, Jr. has taken over the downfield role in this offense, and Van Jefferson has assumed the intermediate, ball-moving option. Here’s a quick snapshot of what Cooper Kupp has done this season: he currently leads the NFL in receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns, he has seen double-digit targets in all but one game (where he saw “only” nine targets), and he has scored more than 20 fantasy points in all but three games. Hot damn, stud alert. What’s more, Matthew Stafford has seemed to lock onto Kupp even more down the stretch, as “any pass-catcher not named Cooper Kupp” has seen a high of only eight targets each of the last three games. The Vikings carry the honor of allowing the sixth-deepest average depth of target and eighth-most total yards after catch in the league. This is a good matchup for this Rams pass attack. 

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

As we’ve talked about all season, this Vikings team relies heavily on their opponent to dictate their pace of play, rush-pass rates, and overall aggression. Minnesota ranks ninth in the league in pass rate with the game within seven points at 59%, which falls to 51% when playing with a lead and jumps to 66% when playing from behind. The biggest indication of a change in philosophy is their situational pace of play, which stands at a 14^th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play (30.62 seconds per play) and jumps to a third-ranked 23.34 seconds per play when trailing by seven or more points. Adam Thielen is tentatively expected to return from a one-game absence with a low-grade high ankle sprain, giving this offense one of its top playmakers back. They will, however, be missing starting running back Dalvin Cook, but backup Alexander Mattison has proven highly capable of filling in when needed.

The backfield will be easy to decipher this week with Dalvin Cook out and Alexander Mattison back from the COVID list. Expect Mattison to see an 80%+ snap rate, backed up by Kene Nwangwu. Fullback CJ Ham should see 35-40% of the offensive snaps of his own but has exactly seven rush attempts and 13 targets on the season. The matchup on the ground yields a paltry 4.035 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Rams defense allowing just 23.0 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Consider Mattison a high floor, high theoretical ceiling play in a difficult matchup, primarily boosted by expected volume.

The pass game is also expected to be highly concentrated, with only Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Alexander Mattison expected to see heavy volume, with KJ Osborn and tight end Tyler Conklin rounding it out in low-volume roles. Should Thielen miss, expect the majority of his volume to flow through Jefferson and Mattison, while the player whose role would grow the most would be Osborn. Ideally, what we see is Thielen active, not for what it does to the Vikings offensive game plan, but for what it does to the potential defensive alignments. The Rams have forced a moderate 7.1 average depth of target but have truly struggled with yards allowed after the catch, ceding the sixth-most in the league. That realm is Justin Jefferson’s realm, who leads Vikings pass-catchers in yards after catch per reception at 4.9. Should Thielen miss, look for Ihmir Smith-Marsette to step into about half of the offensive snaps.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

As is always the case this season, the game environment and pace are likely to be dictated by whomever the Vikings are playing. It just so happens that the team the Vikings are playing this week ranks fifth in the league in points scored per game and play at one of the league’s fastest paces. As such, expect the Vikings to be forced to match the Rams here, leading to a likeliest game flow that involves pace and elevated pass rates from each side. Fantasy goodness abound. There’s not much else that needs to be said here – this game is very clearly the top overall game environment on the slate. Picking through the players with a realistic chance at 40+ fantasy points, two of them come from this game in Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson.

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Hilow >>

My interest in this game starts with each passing game. Through our exploration of the likeliest game flow, we know the path to the most fantasy goodness comes from the Rams finding success and forcing the Vikings to follow suit. Since we know the Rams bias their attack towards the air, the optimal way of attacking the likeliest game flow goes through Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson, who form a high upside correlated pairing from this game.

Either quarterback can be added to that pairing, Adam Thielen or Alexander Mattison can be added to Kirk Cousins due to the highly concentrated nature of the Minnesota offense, and either Odell Beckham, Jr. or Van Jefferson can be added to the Rams side in an attempt to capture a majority of the passing game with a few targeted pieces. Basically, the major players in this game all have merit on this slate and I’ll be looking for ways to get exposure to this game in ways the field is likely not going to be this week. Look for more updates on that in the End Around early Saturday morning!

Any of the aforementioned major players can be considered as one-offs to play to a one-sided affair, a team stack with no bring-back can be rostered to play to that same one-sided affair, and either backfield can be played as leverage off of the likeliest scenario (as in, the touchdowns come on the ground from one, or both sides.

JM >>

• In the last two months, here’s what alpha #1 wideouts have done vs the Rams:
• Brandin Cooks :: 6-83-1
• A.J. Brown :: 5-42-0
• Deebo Samuel :: 5-97-1
• Davante Adams :: 8-104-0
• DeAndre Hopkins :: 5-54-0
• DK Metcalf :: 6-52-0
• A simple translation here might look like this :: “If your alpha is playing the Rams in season-long, you don’t really need to be too concerned; but if you’re having to pay top-dollar in DFS, you might have a hard time returning elite value”
• This is unfortunate, as this is now the ninth game (out of 11) for which I’m writing up Interpretations, and I’m yet to find a QB I really like
• Given that A) the Vikings have been dog-walked by opposing offenses of late, and that B) Cooper Kupp is pretty obviously the top WR play on the slate, a “Stafford + Kupp + bring-back” stack is particularly attractive in theory
• However, given the price tags on the Vikings receivers (Jefferson in particular), I’m a little less likely to actually go there
• Of course, truly sound DFS Theory throws the matchup out of the window in an instance like this (and if we want to feel a bit more comfortable about that idea, we can note that Jefferson has posted two of his three best yardage games this season against defenses that rank top 12 in fewest WR yards allowed)
• The Vikings defense has allowed the fourth most WR catches and the most WR yards in the league, and I’ll be locking Kupp onto each roster I build (I imagine I’ll have three RBs this week on my final build — in order to take advantage of the positional strength — with Kupp as my first wide receiver, and with plenty of maneuverability on my four remaining non-DST spots from there)
• From that point, nothing from this game jumps out to me (I would love the Rams backfield if we knew one back would see the bulk of the work; but as Hilow pointed out, it wouldn’t be a shock if Henderson saw a bigger workload in this one), but plenty from this game is in play
• Kupp is the Blue Chip play for me
• Stafford // “Rams backfield” // OBJ // Van Jefferson // Justin Jefferson // Adam Thielen // Alexander Mattison are all in the mix

Editor’s note: Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans has been ruled out

Game Overview ::

By hilow>>

• Between COVID and injuries, the Bucs are going to be hit hard on the offensive side of the ball this week, as Mike Evans (questionable), Chris Godwin (IR), Leonard Fournette (doubtful), Giovanni Bernard (IR), and Breshad Perriman (COVID) are either out or have yet to practice this week.
• DJ Moore has also yet to practice this week due to his hamstring injury, while CMC remains out, and defensive tackle Derrick Brown is on the COVID list.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

While we can’t say we know how the Bucs will approach this game with any degree of confidence, we should be able to discern the fact that Bruce Arians is more likely than not to keep the game in Tom Brady’s hands. The team is expecting Antonio Brown back from injury/suspension, Rob Gronkowski is one of the more trusted members of this pass-catching corps, Breshad Perriman is tentatively expected to return from the COVID list this week, and the sole remaining healthy running backs are Ronald Jones (last week was his first game since Week 2, to have over a modest 19% snap rate) and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (a single touch in only three games this season). All of that doesn’t even mention why Ronald Jones has fallen out of favor with Arians and Brady, which has been primarily due to incorrect routes, missed blocking assignments, and fumbles (mental errors). The no-nonsense ways of Arians and Brady don’t take too kindly to mental lapses. I would almost throw matchup out the window here and instead look to available personnel in our quest to predict how the Bucs approach this game.

As alluded to above, although Ronald Jones excelled without Leonard Fournette last season, there is quite a bit more uncertainty and risk now than last year. The matchup tilts to the ground (24^th in DVOA against the run, eighth against the pass), but you’re truly playing with fire when it comes to mental lapses (see Mecole Hardman, pre-2021 Marquez Valdes-Scantling, etc). The spot is theoretically a good one against the run-funnel Panthers defense, so I’ll try and keep the tone more neutral until we get to the end of this section, where I will cover the likelier outcome (in my mind). Leonard Fournette had worked his way into a workhorse role over the previous three weeks, playing a minimum of 80% of the offensive snaps over that time frame, meaning his absence opens up a massive opportunity for the only remaining healthy backs on this roster (Ronald Jones and Ke’Shawn Vaughn). The matchup yields a robust 4.535 net-adjusted line yards metric behind the league’s most efficient run-blocking offensive line, against an opponent yielding just 20.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Shifting gears again, that’s about where the positives end for RoJo. The Bucs are currently tied with four teams at 10-4 in the NFC, all sitting one game back of the Packers for the lone conference playoff bye. With a beat-up team, numerous players on one-year deals, and Tom Brady not getting any younger (the man doesn’t get older so maybe he just stays the same age?), expect this team to view every contest as a must-win affair down the stretch. As such, I expect Bruce Arians and Tom Brady to keep games in Brady’s hands until each victory is assured.

Dare I say, we might even see an increase to the 67% overall pass rate we’ve seen from this team this season, should this game play close throughout. The problem is (as we’ll cover below), this game playing close throughout means one of two things – either the Panthers are keeping pace in a tough spot, or the Bucs fail on offense. Expect Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski to act as the primary pass-catchers, with Breshad Perriman likely thrust into a near every-down role (assuming he makes it back from the COVID list and assuming Mike Evans can’t go), while Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller split reps on the perimeter, and Cameron Brate and OJ Howard soak up situational duties at tight end. The matchup is a difficult one on paper, as the Panthers rank 11^th or better in fantasy points allowed to all of running back (third), wide receiver (ninth), and tight end (12^th).

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Carolina would clearly prefer to maintain a run-balanced approach on offense, but they have largely been unable to do so over the previous month of play (with Cam Newton as the starting quarterback). That has led to the eighth-highest overall pass rate during that time frame (61%). Their pass rate with the score within seven points over that same timeframe, you ask? 42%, second-lowest in the league! So yea, expect the Panthers to begin the game attempting to run the football into a brick wall, and then adopting a more pass-heavy approach once they fall behind. What could be a saving grace in this spot is the propensity of the Bucs defense to give up rushing production to opposing quarterbacks (third-most rush attempts faced and fifth-most yards allowed). Finally, keep an eye on the status of DJ Moore, who has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday afternoon).

The running back situation on the Panthers is a veritable mess. Ameer Abdullah has out-snapped rookie Chuba Hubbard each of the past three games played but has failed to crack a modest eight running back opportunities in any game over the span. Hubbard’s high in running back opportunities over that same time frame is 10. Against the pass-funnel Bucs defense, don’t expect a heavy workload for either back here. Speaking of the matchup, the Panthers are left with a deplorable 3.95 net-adjusted line yards metric against a defense facing the fewest rush attempts per game in the league.

Cam Newton has looked downright atrocious passing the football this season, leading to a paltry 54.9% completion rate, low 6.8 intended air yards per pass attempt, and silly-low 5.5 completed air yards per completion. Add in DJ Moore’s hamstring injury and the fact that he has yet to practice this week (of note, we don’t know if he aggravated the injury last week or if he is being held out of practice as a precaution), and we’re left with not a ton to love from this pass offense outside of the potential for a concentrated offense should Moore miss. Moore’s skillset and route tree mesh better with Cam’s late-career “skill set.” Should Moore miss, we’re likely to see Brandon Zylstra step into a near every-down role alongside Robby Anderson, with rookie Terrace Marshall, Jr. regaining his standard slot role (Zylstra has primarily been filling this role of late). Should Moore play, expect Marshall to be the odd man out. Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble have been splitting snaps almost down the middle since the team’s Week 13 bye. Either way, things do not set up well for this pass offense this week, outside of concentration.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This one likely comes down to Carolina’s ability to put points on the board, which has been no small task with Cam Newton at quarterback and without Christian McCaffrey (16.5 points per game over Cam’s four starts). This is of particular concern when we consider the fact that Carolina would prefer to run the football until otherwise forced, and the matchup against an extreme pass-filter defense does not bode well for that game plan. That leaves us with three potential likeliest outcomes as far as game flow goes:

-Tampa Bay shuts down the Panthers, muting the upside of their own offense along the way. Slight boost to Ronald Jones.

-The Panthers are able to keep pace, in which case the Bucs passing game gets a significant boost for heavy expected volume.

-Both the Bucs and Panthers offenses fail, in which case volume is the only thing that matters to us.

This is important to understand because we have such concentrated offenses on each side of this game. We’ll go over some of the plays that matter to each individual scenario below.

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Editor’s Note: On Friday morning, the Bills announced that OL Cody Ford and WR Gabriel Davis were added to the Reserve/COVID-19 list.

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• First off, this game will not be played in 40mph winds with gusts over 60 mph – but that’s also kind of a salient point, as this game is not likely to look the same as the last time these two teams played.
• Wide receiver Cole Beasley will miss this contest on the COVID list while starting left tackle Dion Dawkins and backup left guard Jon Feliciano are also on the league’s COVID list; Star Lotulelei has yet to practice this week while tending to a personal matter.
• Kendrick Bourne remains on the league’s COVID list but is reportedly asymptomatic, giving him a chance to return in time for Sunday; Rhamondre Stevenson (illness) and Nelson Agholor (concussion) have yet to practice this week.

How Buffalo Will Try To Win ::

The Bills lead the league in pass rate with the score within seven points at 68%, a rate that drops to 56% when playing with a lead. The Patriots have forced the seventh-deepest average depth of target while forcing the second-lowest completion rate and 13^th-ranked yards allowed per completion. They have also allowed only 1.1 passing touchdowns per game and have generated the second-most interceptions per game (1.4). That’s pretty incredible to have generated more interceptions than they have allowed passing scores. That said, it is highly probable we see the Bills attempt to win this game through the air.

The backfield has transitioned into a workhorse situation over the previous two weeks, with Devin Singletary handling 82% and 93% snap rates with Zack Moss held as a healthy inactive. That said, the last time Moss was active was against these same Patriots, so keep an eye on the inactive list leading up to the first kick. Should Moss be once again held out, Singletary would likely have this backfield largely to himself. That also said, this does not set up the same way as it did last week when Singletary saw a robust 23 running back opportunities. Expect the Bills to attempt less than 20 running back rush attempts. The matchup on the ground yields a slightly above average 4.38 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Patriots defense allowing 24.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Quite the strength-on-strength matchup we have here, with the league’s 11^th-ranked pass offense (DVOA) against the league’s third-ranked pass defense (DVOA). With Cole Beasley out and Emmanuel Sanders returning to practice, expect Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis to man the perimeter out of 11-personnel formations, with Sanders likely shifting to the perimeter in heavy formations, a slight dent to the expected snap rate of Davis – that is assuming Sanders is back to full health. Tight end Dawson Knox has worked his way into a near every-down role over the second half of the season. The matchup tilts expected production to the deeper areas of the field but also induces a good deal of uncertainty, making any of these pass-catchers best played at low ownership.

How New England Will Try to win ::

Although we can’t expect the Patriots to approach game-planning in the same way they did the last time these two teams met, we should expect something along the same lines – high rush rates and dynamic run-blocking designed to rush off the edge and off tackle (away from Star Lotulelei, who is currently not practicing, and inside linebacker Tremaine Edmunds). When forced to throw, Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry set up the best to be able to take advantage of the high man rates shown by the Bills. Either way, we know the Patriots would like to shorten the field on both sides of the ball while cracking down in the red zone on defense. Expect a slow pace of play and elevated rush rates.

There are some significant question marks surrounding this Patriots backfield, as Rhamondre Stevenson has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) and Damien Harris is coming off a missed contest. We should expect the Patriots to once again lean into the run game here but we’re highly unlikely to see the same level of output as the last time these two teams played. Said another way, look for the Patriots to build their offensive game plan around the run but in different ways than in Week 13. The expected snap rates depend largely on health and it’s too early to speculate on who would be of the most utility here. Assuming all backs play, we’re likely to see a three-way timeshare amongst Harris, Stevenson, and Brandon Bolden, with Bolden primarily being used on obvious passing downs. The matchup on the ground yields a putrid 3.905 net-adjusted line yards metric but the primary strength of this Bills defense is up the middle, and nose tackle Star Lotulelei has yet to practice this week.

The pass game also has a good deal of unknowns surrounding it with both Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne yet to practice this week. Both are primarily utilized as package wide receivers, as the only pass-catchers to play near every-down roles are Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry. That said, should either miss, it would open up additional playing time for punt returner Gunner Olszewski, who could become an interesting piece at min price. It would also likely open up additional perimeter snaps for N’Keal Harry, who has largely underwhelmed throughout his career and should be thought of primarily as a run-blocker at this point. With all pass-catchers healthy, expect a rather wide timeshare outside of Meyers and Henry. The matchup through the air could not be more difficult against a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

Likeliest Game flow ::

Expect another field position battle from these two divisional rivals in their respective quests for playoff seeding (the Patriots currently sit in the second spot in the AFC, one game behind the Chiefs, while the Bills are only one game back from the Patriots and currently in the seventh and final playoff spot). Both teams rank in the top half of the league in average time of possession, meaning we shouldn’t expect more than the 126 total plays these two teams combine for this year. Overall, this game shouldn’t be one to go out of our way to attack, with the most interest from me coming from Bills pass-catchers, which depends highly on expected ownership, or the Patriots backfield, which depends highly on the game-day statuses of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris.

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Editor’s Note: Jaguars WR Laviska Shenault was placed on the COVID list on Friday.

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• The Jaguars have somehow avoided COVID altogether this week, with zero players currently on the league’s COVID list; six players did not practice on Wednesday, most notably wide receiver LaViska Shenault, Jr., and Carlos Hyde who is done for the season.
• The Jets list nine players currently on the league’s COVID list, including wide receivers Elijah Moore (transferred from IR) and Jeff Smith, guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, six defensive starters, and head coach Robert Saleh; wide receiver Jamison Crowder, linebacker CJ Mosley, safety Elijah Riley, and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins did not practice on Wednesday.
• Two teams with moderate situation-neutral paces of play and rush-pass rates that both increase pace of play and pass rates in negative game scripts – this is important to us in our quest for hidden upside.
• 25^th and 31^st-ranked offenses in drive success rate against 25^th and 31^st-ranked defenses in drive success rate allowed.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

It’s almost impossible to tell the exact way the Jaguars will try to win here with so many moving pieces surrounding their team. Here’s what we do know:

• The Jaguars hold a low 55% pass rate with the score within seven points this season (12^th-lowest in the league).
• James Robinson is back to being the bellcow of this backfield (84% snap rate last week without Carlos Hyde, in the first game without former head coach Urban Meyer).
• Marvin Jones, Jr. and Laquon Treadwell play almost every snap on the perimeter, while Laviska Shenault, Jr. typically sees about two-thirds of the offensive snaps in a short area, gadget-style role.
• This team is more than willing to almost abandon the run and turn to the air in negative game scripts.
• Interim head coach Darrell Bevell has handed over offensive play-calling duties to Brian Schottenheimer.
• Bevell and Schottenheimer’s offenses were built around dynamic run-blocking in the run game and deep passing through the air.

Since we know the Jaguars have been far more likely to lean on the run in competitive games, we have to approach the rest of this write-up through the lens of individual game flows. Should they stay competitive, or even play with a lead, we have to assume an increased rush rate primarily through James Robinson. The matchup on the ground yields a well above average, and borderline elite 4.47 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Jets defense ceding 36.3 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, the most in the league by a wide margin (like, six full points per game more than the second-worst team).

Along the same line of thinking, we should expect 40+ pass attempts from Trevor Lawrence should the Jags play from behind. I would also expect a heavier emphasis on the deep passing game than what we saw under Urban Meyer, which would primarily flow through perimeter threats Marvin Jones, Jr. and Laquon Treadwell. James O’Shaughnessy leads the tight end stable in snap rate and is the most well-rounded of the bunch, while Chris Manhertz is primarily a blocking tight end, and Jacob Hollister is primarily utilized in heavy formations. Finally, the six total defensive starters for the Jets is a slight boost to both the run game and the pass game of the Jaguars, in addition to being a slight boost to expected offensive efficiency.

How New York Will Try to win ::

The Jets are really trying to figure out their future as opposed to playing for anything this season, splitting the work across all three major skill positions. Michael Carter and Tevin Coleman have been splitting the backfield work, Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole, Braxton Berrios, and Denzel Mims have been splitting the work between three wide receiver positions, and Ryan Griffin, Tyler Kroft, and Trevon Wesco have been splitting the work at tight end. Woof. The Jets rank towards the middle of the pack in rush-pass rates with the score within seven points but have been forced into increased aerial aggression quite often this season. They also rank towards the middle of the pack in situation-neutral pace of play, but rank first in the league in pace of play in the second half, indicating a team that is fighting through the end of the game even if the score is out of reach.

The backfield is somewhat predictable with Michael Carter and Tevin Coleman both healthy. Expect a near even backfield split between the two, with Carter carrying additional pass game upside. The matchup on the ground yields a below-average 4.205 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Jacksonville defense allowing 23.5 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Not a ton to love here.

The pass game is also fairly straightforward, with four wide receivers splitting time amongst three spots and three tight ends rotating through depending on the package. Jamison Crowder and Keelan Cole play the most snaps on offense, but neither approaches near every-down utilization, typically playing sub-80% of the offensive snaps in a given week. Braxton Berrios and Denzel Mims rotate through in modest roles and would require outlier efficiency to matter. Again, not an overwhelming spot.

Likeliest Game flow ::

Another game with extremely wide ranges of potential outcomes as far as game flow and game environment go. With the big picture in mind, we know that both of these teams land near the middle of the league in situation-neutral pace of play and pass rates with the score within seven points, but both teams also up those values when trailing. This provides us with a solid game environment for some hidden upside, particularly considering the heavy injuries and COVID issues throughout New York’s roster. Although not necessarily the likeliest outcomes from a real-world football perspective, the likeliest path to fantasy goodness for DFS comes via a game environment that the Jaguars can control. In this scenario, expect James Robinson to be utilized heavily in the best matchup he’ll have seen all season, while Jamison Crowder and Keelan Cole have a viable path to increased volume and expected production. I would likely leave this game alone altogether for all other potential game environments.

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• I’m starting the week with this game. As such, I feel it necessary to once again stress the fact that COVID is throwing a massive wrench in everybody’s plans. Take the major points from each of these write-ups, keep on top of late-week news, and stay flexible!
• The Lions currently have 11 players on the COVID list, most notably quarterback Jared Goff and six defensive backs (UPDATE: wide receiver Trinity Benson, quarterback Jared Goff, and tackle Matt Nelson are the only players still on the COVID list as of Thursday night).
• The Falcons don’t currently have any major COVID news, as of Wednesday (UPDATE: no changes on Thursday).
• D’Andre Swift returned to a limited practice on Wednesday, his first practice since injuring his shoulder in Week 12.
• Falcons “WR3” Tajae Sharpe missed practice Wednesday with a foot injury sustained last week.
• Atlanta rank 26^th in points per game (18.4) while allowing the second-most points per game (27.4), while Detroit rank 28^th in points per game (17.4) while allowing the seventh-most points per game (26.1). Something has got to give here.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Lions quarterback Jared Goff was placed on the league’s COVID list on Monday following mild symptoms late Sunday evening. Dan Campbell, the mastermind joker himself, refused to disclose whether to expect Tim Boyle or David Blough should Goff miss, leaving us playing the guessing game with respect to how this offense will look this weekend. Let’s start with what we know. We know the Lions would prefer to play at a slow-to-moderate pace (27th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play) with elevated rush rates (seventh-highest rush rate on first and second down with the score within seven points) for as long as there are allowed to do so, but that they are one of the handful of teams that are more than willing to increase both their pace of play and pass rates should they be forced to (fourth-highest overall second-half pass rate and seventh-fastest second-half pace of play). Tim Boyle has one career start under his belt, and David Blough has a total of four pass touchdowns to seven interceptions over his short career. Not great, Bob. The team did, however, recently activate Jamaal Williams off the COVID list and is tentatively expecting D’Andre Swift to return from a three-game absence, assuming his shoulder tests out okay during limited practices this week. Finally, six total defensive backs are currently on the COVID list for a defense already allowing the second-most yards per completion this year (11.7).

The team’s backfield situation depends heavily on D’Andre Swift and his ability to grit through a shoulder injury. Jamaal Williams has already been reinstated from the league’s COVID list and would be the player likeliest to lead the backfield should Swift miss. Should Swift return, there’s a wide range of potential outcomes when it comes to his expected snap rate and workload, likely depending on both game flow and pain management. It is clear this team views Swift as the lead back, by a wide margin, as Williams handled a modest 47% snap rate in his lone start without Swift, indicating a likely timeshare should Swift miss. Should Swift return, as previously mentioned, his involvement likely depends on some combination of game flow and pain management. I find it hard to believe that Detroit would feed increased run to Swift if the game gets out of hand in his first game back from injury. Keep an eye on the injury report out of Detroit and any anecdotes from Dan Campbell this week to gauge Swift’s expected level of involvement. The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.34 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Falcons defense allowing 26.4 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, including 15 total touchdowns and the eighth-most receiving yards.

We’ve seen Jared Goff absolutely lock onto rookie wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown over the previous three weeks of play, feeding him 35 total targets over that time (11 or more targets in each of those three games). The problem for us is that Swift missed all three of those games, TJ Hockenson missed two of those games, and each of those outputs came with Jared Goff at quarterback, who is in danger of missing this week on the COVID list. While we can expect St. Brown to continue to lead the team in looks, we have to question a couple of things here. Firstly, will a backup quarterback lock onto him the same way that Jared Goff did? Secondly, will Swift command more of a share of the targets once he returns? And thirdly, will the game environment require the Lions to up their pass rates and pace of play in the second half in a game against the Falcons? Expect Kalif Raymond and Josh Reynolds to operate as the primary perimeter wide receivers, with Brock Wright and Shane Zylstra splitting work at the tight end position. Atlanta is actually league-average in yards allowed per completion at 10.2 but struggles in opponent completion rate allowed (fourth-worst 68.9%).

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

After starting the season with the league’s ninth-highest overall pass rate over the first eight weeks, the Falcons have dropped all the way down to the 12th-lowest pass rate over the previous month of play. While the immediate reaction would be to check their opponents over that timeframe as a means of explaining it away, that simply isn’t the case here (31-13 loss to the Niners, 29-21 victory over the Panthers, 30-17 loss to the Bucs, and 21-14 win over the Jaguars), indicating more of a shift by design. On the season, the Falcons have scored only 18.4 points per game (26th in the league), rank well below average in drive success rate (22nd), yards per drive (22nd), and points per drive (25th), and have allowed their opponents to score the second-most points per game (27.4). Atlanta hasn’t been very dynamic with respect to situational play-calling and pace of play metrics, checking in with a 64% pass rate when trailing (below average) and 58% pass rate when ahead (above average) while landing within a three-second disparity in pace of play when leading or trailing (lowest delta in the league). What that means is that the Falcons are largely incapable of altering their offensive game plan based on both opponent and game flow or are simply unwilling to do so.

Cordarrelle Patterson out-snapped backfield-mate Mike Davis in Week 15 for only the second time all season, but the overarching theme of this backfield remains the same – expect anything from a 1A/1B split to a direct timeshare out of the backfield, split in some capacity between Patterson and Davis. Although the snap rates have largely been split down the middle over the previous month of play between these two, Patterson has seen 17.75 running back opportunities per game over the previous month, while Davis has been held to only 10.25. With Patterson transitioning to more of a “prototypical running back” role, he’ll likely require a positive game script, extreme efficiency, and multiple trips to the end zone in order to return a GPP-worthy score at an inflated price tag. The matchup on the ground is a good one, yielding an average 4.315 net-adjusted line yards against a defense allowing 28.7 fantasy points per game to the position.

Since the Falcons have become much more balanced later in the season, and since we know they don’t alter their offensive game plan heavily this year, quarterback Matt Ryan has averaged only 32.5 pass attempts per game over the previous month of play. Along with the modest pass attempts total comes a 30th-ranked intended air yards per pass attempt value of just 6.7 (lower than Davis Mills and Ben Roethlisberger!). Ballooning his overall numbers is a solid 68.08% completion rate, leading to a 19th-ranked completed air yards per pass attempt value of 5.6. Basically, Ryan is still capable of reading progression and finding the open man, but the offense is constrained to short-to-intermediate work due to available offensive personnel and Ryan’s declining arm strength. Russel Gage and Kyle Pitts operate in the only near every-down role amongst pass-catchers, each typically playing between 75-85% of the offensive snaps on a weekly basis. Tajae Sharpe (UPDATE: Sharpe has yet to practice as of late Thursday night) and Olamide Zaccheaus have been relegated to 50-65% weekly snap rates. One positive coming from the Falcons is their ability and propensity to mix-and-match offensive personnel through everything they’ve gone through, playing numerous snaps from 21-, 12-, 22-, and even 13-personnel over the previous month. That means to expect snaps with both Patterson and Davis on the field, both Pitts and Hayden Hurst on the field, and snaps with all four on the field.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

I would contend that there simply isn’t a likeliest game flow here. Instead, we have a wide range of outcomes, each with about as likely of a chance of playing out as the rest. This is oftentimes the case when you pit two poor offenses against two poor defenses, but it is amplified in this instance based on the offensive tendencies of each team. Explained a more simple way – the Falcons have shown to be incapable or unwilling to alter their offensive game plan regardless of the situation they find themselves in, while the Lions have been one of the more willing offenses to throw their pregame game plan out the window should they be forced to do so. Because of this, the first two quarters are likely to decide the direction of this game, leaving it with one of the widest range of outcomes on this slate (and possibly this year). As in, we wouldn’t be surprised if this game ended 9-6, and we wouldn’t be surprised if this game ended 31-24. That said, this game is highly unlikely to completely blow all the others on this slate out of the water, meaning we would require concentrated offenses in order to provide stackability (it just so happens that’s exactly what we’ve seen out of these two offenses over the previous month of play). But because these offenses have struggled so much all season, and because the Lions would likely require the Falcons leading the charge towards increased aggression, the most optimal way of attacking this one (if going here) is through the game flow-lens of the Falcons jumping out to a lead, and the Lions forced to catch up.

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>

• Bradin Cooks and Austin Ekeler are the two big COVID questions to watch.
• If Cooks sits, Nico Collins is a possible WR1 priced like a punt play.
• If Ekeler sits, Justin Jackson becomes an obvious play.
• The main thing holding the Chargers offense back is the Texans ability to keep up.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The 8-6 Chargers come into Week 16 off a heartbreaking overtime division loss against the Chiefs that all but assures Kansas City will win the AFC West. The Chargers are left battling among four 8-6 teams all vying for three wild card spots. This is a must win game. Coming off the “mini-bye,” the Chargers should have most of their starters back from the COVID list with the most notable exception being Austin Ekeler. The Chargers play fast in all situations, and Ekeler’s status shouldn’t change much about the way they attack the Texans defense.  

The Texans defense has been poor against the run (27^th in DVOA), but better against the pass (10^th in DVOA), which is a setup that should tilt the Chargers coaching staff towards the ground. Ekler’s availability should not significantly change the game plan, as the Chargers were already looking more comfortable giving Justin Jackson the between the tackle carries the past two weeks. Expect the Chargers to come out with their usual fast-paced, aggressive approach, while leaning on the running game more than usual to exploit the Texans sorry run defense.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The 3-11 Texans have entered evaluation mode and are trying to figure out what they can work with next year. They may have found something in Davis Mills, who has looked much better than other rookie QBs drafted well before him. The Texans play slow (21^st in situational neutral pace), but are willing to speed up when chasing points (4^th in pace during the second half) and are likely to be down on the scoreboard in this game. The Texans care more about finding out what they have for next year, than they do about the results of the games, and they have every incentive to let David Mills be aggressive.  

The Chargers defense has been decent against the pass (12^th in DVOA) but hasn’t been able to stop anyone on the ground (31^st in DVOA), presenting as one of the clearest run funnel units in the league. The Texans set up exceptionally poorly to take advantage of their opponent’s weakness, as they lack anything resembling a power run game. The Texans care more about getting an extended look at Mills than they do about winning, and they should continue to utilize a balanced offense, rather than trying to relentlessly run against the relative weakness of the Chargers defense. They are also likely to be chasing points, which means passing from the Texans is coming one way or another.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a moderate total of 46 because the Chargers offense is likely to score against the talent deficient Texans defense and the Texans offense has shown signs of life recently with Davis Mills under center. Even with Mills looking better than expected, the Texans offense is still a talent deficient group that is projected to score under 20 points. The Chargers are one of the few teams that play fast in all situations, never dropping out of the top ten in pace regardless of point differential or half. The Bolts are likely to stay aggressive late into this game, winning confidently by multiple scores.

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>

• Tyler Huntley is priced attractively for a running QB that has shown upside with his arm.
• The Bengals should pass more than usual.
• Burrow’s price has fallen below $6,000 on DK.
• Joe Mixon has played less than 70% of the snaps the past three weeks.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The 8-6 Ravens enter a pivotal division game on the back of a three-game losing streak. Jim Harbaugh’s team is approaching “total collapse” territory as they are now tied with the Bengals atop their division, and only hold a one game lead over the Browns/Steelers. Three weeks ago, it looked like the Ravens would coast to an AFC North title. Now? The winner of this game will be in the driver’s seat for the division and the loser has a real chance to miss the postseason. This is as close to a playoff game for the Ravens as they’ve had all season, and they desperately need a victory to stop the bleeding.  The upstart Bengals defense has been the reason they’ve overperformed expectations this season. The Bengals are tough to run on (10^th in DVOA) and middling against the pass (17^th in DVOA). There isn’t a clear path of least resistance to take, and there isn’t anything in the matchup that should tilt the Ravens away from their preferred style of play, which doesn’t change much with Lamar Jackson clone Tyler Huntley under center. The Ravens play slow (31^st in situational neutral pace), and they stay slow in all situations. Expect more of the same, with the Ravens using a creative running game that utilizes a hybrid RB/QB approach from Huntley. 

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The 8-6 Bengals must come into this game feeling blessed that their opponents have been collapsing the past month. A contest that three weeks ago looked like it could be meaningless, is now close to a division championship game. The Bengals are at home, have momentum, and this game will be played in a playoff environment. The Bengals play slow (30^th in situational neutral pace) and stay slow in all situations. There aren’t going to be a lot of plays between two teams that will likely play slow.

The Ravens have been stout against the run (5^th in DVOA) but blasted by the pass (29^th in DVOA) and are playing the rest of the year without their best secondary player (Marlon Humphries). This is one of the clearest pass funnel defenses in the league, and the Bengals coaching staff should be able to figure that out in a must-win game. The first time these two teams met, the Bengals threw 38 times (their second-highest pass attempt game of the season) and they should have a similar game plan. Expect the Bengals to stay slow, but to pass more than usual to attack the relative weakness of the Ravens defense. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a moderate total of 45.5 and is expected to be a competitive game between two teams trying to win the AFC North. The Ravens might be missing Lamar Jackson, but even if he sits, Tyler Huntley has shown enough that it’s still reasonable to think this will be a close contest that is decided late in the game. Expect both teams to play at their usual slow pace, keeping things within one score, before the winner is finally determined in the 4^th quarter, possibly on the last drive or in OT. 

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This game features two teams on a short week who are out of the playoff hunt.
• The forecast calls for a cold, damp game with temperatures in the 20’s and precipitation earlier in the day (likely clearing by gametime).
• Both offenses are bottom-10 in the league in scoring and play at a middling to below average pace.
• Surprisingly, both of these teams are top-10 in the league in pass rate since Week 11 (after both teams had their byes).

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears have three games in the last five weeks against similar opponents to what they will see this week from the Seahawks. Those games were against the Vikings, Lions, and Ravens. From my perspective, those similarities are in the approaches of the respective teams as they all have defensive-minded head coaches who prefer to play old-school football when they can, trying to win by controlling the ball and avoiding mistakes. Pete Carroll seems like he would certainly fit that mold as well, which is why I am making that comparison. In those three games, the final scores have been 16-13, 16-14, and 17-9 – an average of 28.3 total points per game. 

The Bears are a team that operates at a slow pace (23rd in the league in situation-neutral pace of play) and also does not force the issue on its opponents with its play-calling or aggressiveness. Their lack of offensive explosiveness and conservative approach allows opponents to decide if they want to reciprocate with a similar approach or become aggressive on their own. As alluded to earlier, this has played out on the field over the past several weeks with opponents who have weaker offenses and/or strong defenses electing to keep things close to the vest and try to grind out wins against the Bears. Matt Nagy is in survival mode and doing anything he can to try to save face and hold on to his job as the season comes to a close. In reality, he would be wise to open things up and try to inject some excitement into the team/franchise by using Justin Fields in creative ways and becoming more aggressive. Nagy’s best chance to save his job isn’t going to be with a couple of meaningless, boring 17-13 wins to end the year….he would have a much better chance to be kept around if they lose a couple of 34-28 games where Fields flashes his potential. This is Matt Nagy we are talking about, however, and I don’t expect him to have that type of foresight. Instead, we should expect to see much of the same Bears team that we’ve seen throughout the year with a conservative approach and Nagy just hoping things stay close late in the game and variance bounces their way.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Pete Carroll loves old-school football. Rashaad Penny against the Texans and then Deejay Dallas against the Rams. Seattle now has two backs who have shown the ability to be efficient and productive in recent weeks and a home game in cold weather against a bottom-tier defense. Seattle operates at a league-average pace of play, but that number is slightly misleading as they tend to operate with more tempo against better defenses and opponents as a means of slowing down pass rushes and keeping them from subbing in fresh players. They employed this tactic on a few occasions on Tuesday night against the Rams. However, in games against weaker competition, they tend to revert to their old habits of playing slow, methodical football.

Seattle’s passing game, although throwing at a higher rate of late, has been wildly inefficient since Russell Wilson’s return from a finger injury. Wilson has averaged over eight yards per attempt only once in the six games since his return, and that game was two weeks ago against the Texans and their very poor defense. Now they play a Chicago team that gives up the 4th lowest yards per attempt to opposing offenses. Another huge issue for Seattle continues to be their inability to rack up play volume, ranking dead last in the league at 55.2 plays per game. Seattle’s predictable tendencies of running in obvious situations and taking downfield shots make it likely that they continue their trend of low play volume as they are likely to put themselves in long down and distance situations and their route concepts and personnel are not diverse enough to overcome defenses that drop into coverage and keep things in front of them. Seattle will try to win by playing Pete Carroll’s old-fashioned, predictable style and counting on the Bears to just be worse than them rather than actually trying to optimize their own performance.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

As discussed in the Seattle portion of this breakdown, the Seahawks have been unable to sustain play volume throughout the entire season. While the Seahawks play volume has been pretty steady, the play volume of their opponents has depended on game flow. When the Seahawks have controlled games this year or played against efficient offenses that were able to have success against their defense, those games resulted in heightened play volume for the opponent. In close games, the result has been painfully slow games with low play volume for both sides. Unfortunately, in this spot, the likeliest scenario is a low-scoring game with very modest play volume. The reality is that while Seattle has passed at a high rate, they have been very inefficient and are facing a defense that forces things underneath and takes away big plays. On the other side, Chicago has struggled to consistently move the ball, and Matt Nagy just can’t get out of his own way. One of Pete Carroll or Matt Nagy will get a win on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean that either of them will deserve it.

Tributaries ::

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• The Chiefs have had some weeks recently where they looked like the Chiefs of old, but there are some major questions here about whether they will have the personnel or need to do that against the Steelers.
• Pittsburgh’s run defense has been one of the worst in the league for the last few weeks, getting gashed on a weekly basis.
• The pace for this game projects to be very fast, with both teams ranking top-10 in pace and throwing at a top-5 rate.
• The status of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will have a huge impact on the outlook and projection for this game.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Over their last three road games, the Steelers have given up 118 points – an average of 39.3 points per game. Those games were against three talented, explosive offenses in the Chargers, Bengals, and Vikings. A road trip to Kansas City and the high-powered Chiefs offense certainly sets up as a similar spot that we would expect a similar game script to play out.

While they have been pass-heavy all season, Pittsburgh has actually thrown at the highest situation-neutral rate in the league since Week 11. Last week against the Titans was a weird game environment as both teams were content to play boring, inefficient football with their mediocre offenses. That game had very few total plays, and Ben Roethlisberger only threw the ball 25 times. Prior to that, Ben had averaged 39 pass attempts per game over the four previous weeks. The Kansas City defense works to limit wide receiver production and big plays in the passing game while trying to funnel things towards the running game and short, middle of the field. This actually fits fairly well with the Steelers method of attack as they attempt to hide Ben Roethlisberger and his inability to push the ball down the field. The Chiefs defense has been very good recently, as they had held six straight opponents under 20 points (four of which were held under 10 points) prior to last week’s shootout with the Chargers. In theory, this matchup sets up well for how the Steelers try to attack (voluminous, short-area passing), but in reality, this is a very dangerous matchup where if Ben is throwing 40+ times, the Chiefs defense could tee off on him. The Chiefs are, by far, most susceptible on the ground, but the Steelers have the 27th graded run blocking by PFF, and Najee Harris hasn’t been able to consistently produce on the ground this season due primarily to the environment and blocking around him. The Steelers should start this game trying to run the ball and pepper Diontae Johnson with short-area targets, but without the threat of Ben challenging them down the field, the Chiefs will likely be prepared for this and give them fits early.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers run defense was a feared unit for many years. How the mighty have fallen. Currently ranked 30th in DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per carry, the Steelers are a team that opponents are actively attacking on the ground. The Chiefs have PFF’s #3 graded run-blocking offensive line and have shown significant improvement running the ball since last season and the start of this season. This is bad bad news for the Steelers as they head on the road to face a Patrick Mahomes-led offense.

While the Chiefs still pass at a top-5 rate in the league, it is worth noting that they are only throwing at a 59% situation-neutral rate over their last four games – which is about the league average. As their defense has improved and opposing defenses have sold out to slow down the explosive Chiefs passing game, they have evolved their approach to make their opponents pay for playing so far off the line and using so many defensive backs. The Chiefs are likely to be able to move the ball in whatever manner they choose, and the Steelers will dictate to them what that will be. If the Steelers do not dedicate resources to help their poor run defense, they will likely be gashed repeatedly on the ground. If the Steelers do bring their offense closer to the line, Mahomes and company will be able to take shots down the field and use their elite talent for chunk plays and explosive scoring. The status of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce (who are both on the COVID list with uncertain statuses for Sunday) will likely have a significant impact on how the Steelers elect to defend the Chiefs, as, without both of these players, they would be able to focus on reinforcing their run defense with less worry of being exposed on the back end.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Although they are a pass-heavy team, the Steelers are not going to voluntarily get into a shootout with Patrick Mahomes on the road. The Steelers will run the ball and use their short-area passing game against the Chiefs, trying to sustain drives and score points to protect both Ben Roethlisberger and their highly susceptible defense. So much of the projection for this game relies on the health status of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, both of whom we will likely not have the final word on until Sunday morning but who still have a chance to be cleared thanks to the league’s new COVID protocols allowing a shorter return to play. Ironically, I think the Chiefs are more likely to control this game with their running game if they have Tyreek and/or Kelce active, as that will keep the Steelers from allocating more resources to help their struggling run defense. On the flip side, if the Chiefs are forced to play without both of their top receiving options, that would likely lead to the Steelers stacking the box and taking their chances against the replacement level receivers the Chiefs would be left with. The Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes, however, and that could end up a recipe for disaster if the Chiefs can give him time to take those shots down the field, regardless of who is on the receiving end.

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Both teams enter this game at 7-7 and are very much alive for a playoff spot, but the loser of this game will likely not be able to dig out of the hole.
• Drew Lock starting at quarterback for Denver adds some intrigue and volatility to this game.
• Las Vegas has scored under 20 points in six of their last seven games and is playing on an unexpected short week.
• The Raiders “strength” on offense matches up poorly with the Denver defense.
• The Raiders defense has given up 30+ points in four of their last six games.
• These teams combined for 58 points in Week 6. However, players who played key roles in that game who will not play this week include Henry Ruggs, Darren Waller, Kenyan Drake, and Teddy Bridgewater.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

This season has seen Denver use a very conservative approach with Teddy Bridgewater managing games and the Broncos focusing on the 1-2 punch of their running game behind Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. Since their Week 11 bye, the Broncos are running the ball at the 5th highest situation-neutral rate in the league. After a scary situation in Week 15, Teddy Bridgewater is out, and Drew Lock is in for the Broncos. This change adds more dynamics and uncertainty to this game than we would usually see in a Week 16 divisional matchup. Lock has always been a “YOLO” quarterback who throws aggressively downfield and takes chances. This is primarily what cost him his job, however, and he claims to have “grown” as a quarterback – which I would assume to mean he has realized that he can’t throw the ball to the other team so often.

The strategy from the Broncos will likely center around hiding Lock and not putting him in a position to make many of the same mistakes that have haunted him in the past. The Broncos have a much stronger running game now than they did the last time Lock started and will try to use their elite running back tandem to take the load off his plate. I would expect Denver to leverage Lock’s arm strength by using play-action to take calculated shots down the field, but not to put him in a lot of situations where he is making reads and going through progressions unless they are forced to. This is a great audition opportunity for Lock to prove to other teams he deserves a second chance, and he couldn’t ask for a much better opportunity than in a dome, against a struggling defense, with a strong supporting cast and running game. (Full disclosure, I am biased and want Lock to smash in this spot because the last time we saw him start a game, it was also against the Raiders in Week 17 of the 2020 season when he did this, which led me to the biggest win of my DFS career.)

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders got a pretty raw deal having their game moved from Saturday to Monday last week and losing two days of rest while also having to travel. This is a huge game if they want any chance of making the playoffs and is, quite frankly, the best chance they have left on the schedule for a win. The Raiders have had some absolute duds in the last few weeks, but it should be noted that at least two of those were against a Chiefs team that they just could not match up with any worse from a personnel and philosophy standpoint.

The Raiders continued to pass at a high rate in a Week 15 win over the Browns and now face a tough Denver pass defense on a short week of rest. Las Vegas has had a top-3 situation-neutral pass rate over the course of the season and over the last four weeks. At this point in the season, the Raiders have shown their preferred method of attack is throwing at a nearly two-to-one ratio regardless of opponent or personnel available as they have not changed their approach despite significant losses. While their pass rate has not changed, the way in which they attack through the air has changed significantly. Through six weeks, Derek Carr was 6th in the league with an average depth of target of 9.8. Since then, Carr’s average throw has been only 7.6 yards downfield as the team has adjusted to the loss of Henry Ruggs and, subsequently, Darren Waller. This quick-hitting, short-area passing game will be the clear focus for the Raiders again this week as the Denver secondary makes it difficult to throw the ball to the outside and down the field, and their run defense is strong enough to make the underwhelming Raiders run game unlikely to be consistently successful.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Raiders play at a slightly above-average pace, while the Broncos are one of the slower-paced teams in the league. Vegas has this game as a “pick ‘em,” meaning it is likely that neither team takes total control and forces the other to drastically change their means of attack until late in the game.

If the Broncos take control of this game, it will be slowly but surely and would entail their defense stalling the Raiders offense and their running game pounding away at the Raiders run defense. The Bengals played the Broncos last week in a tough, defensive battle that showed those two teams are pretty evenly matched and have similar philosophies. I bring this up because the Bengals gave the blueprint the Broncos will be trying to implement in this game when they played the Raiders a few weeks ago. In that game, Joe Mixon ran for over 120 yards, and two touchdowns as the Bengals gradually gained control and walked away with a 32-13 victory. If Drew Lock can take care of the football and avoid mistakes, the Broncos could find similar success.

For the Raiders, the best chance of taking control is from Lock making those big mistakes and handing them short fields. Their offense has struggled so much lately (scoring under 20 points in six of the last seven games) that it is hard to envision a scenario where they explode offensively to take control unless the points are being handed to them on a silver platter.

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

DFS+ Interpretation ::