Bears (

17) at
Hawks (

24)

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This game features two teams on a short week who are out of the playoff hunt.
• The forecast calls for a cold, damp game with temperatures in the 20’s and precipitation earlier in the day (likely clearing by gametime).
• Both offenses are bottom-10 in the league in scoring and play at a middling to below average pace.
• Surprisingly, both of these teams are top-10 in the league in pass rate since Week 11 (after both teams had their byes).

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears have three games in the last five weeks against similar opponents to what they will see this week from the Seahawks. Those games were against the Vikings, Lions, and Ravens. From my perspective, those similarities are in the approaches of the respective teams as they all have defensive-minded head coaches who prefer to play old-school football when they can, trying to win by controlling the ball and avoiding mistakes. Pete Carroll seems like he would certainly fit that mold as well, which is why I am making that comparison. In those three games, the final scores have been 16-13, 16-14, and 17-9 – an average of 28.3 total points per game. 

The Bears are a team that operates at a slow pace (23rd in the league in situation-neutral pace of play) and also does not force the issue on its opponents with its play-calling or aggressiveness. Their lack of offensive explosiveness and conservative approach allows opponents to decide if they want to reciprocate with a similar approach or become aggressive on their own. As alluded to earlier, this has played out on the field over the past several weeks with opponents who have weaker offenses and/or strong defenses electing to keep things close to the vest and try to grind out wins against the Bears. Matt Nagy is in survival mode and doing anything he can to try to save face and hold on to his job as the season comes to a close. In reality, he would be wise to open things up and try to inject some excitement into the team/franchise by using Justin Fields in creative ways and becoming more aggressive. Nagy’s best chance to save his job isn’t going to be with a couple of meaningless, boring 17-13 wins to end the year….he would have a much better chance to be kept around if they lose a couple of 34-28 games where Fields flashes his potential. This is Matt Nagy we are talking about, however, and I don’t expect him to have that type of foresight. Instead, we should expect to see much of the same Bears team that we’ve seen throughout the year with a conservative approach and Nagy just hoping things stay close late in the game and variance bounces their way.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Pete Carroll loves old-school football. Rashaad Penny against the Texans and then Deejay Dallas against the Rams. Seattle now has two backs who have shown the ability to be efficient and productive in recent weeks and a home game in cold weather against a bottom-tier defense. Seattle operates at a league-average pace of play, but that number is slightly misleading as they tend to operate with more tempo against better defenses and opponents as a means of slowing down pass rushes and keeping them from subbing in fresh players. They employed this tactic on a few occasions on Tuesday night against the Rams. However, in games against weaker competition, they tend to revert to their old habits of playing slow, methodical football.

Seattle’s passing game, although throwing at a higher rate of late, has been wildly inefficient since Russell Wilson’s return from a finger injury. Wilson has averaged over eight yards per attempt only once in the six games since his return, and that game was two weeks ago against the Texans and their very poor defense. Now they play a Chicago team that gives up the 4th lowest yards per attempt to opposing offenses. Another huge issue for Seattle continues to be their inability to rack up play volume, ranking dead last in the league at 55.2 plays per game. Seattle’s predictable tendencies of running in obvious situations and taking downfield shots make it likely that they continue their trend of low play volume as they are likely to put themselves in long down and distance situations and their route concepts and personnel are not diverse enough to overcome defenses that drop into coverage and keep things in front of them. Seattle will try to win by playing Pete Carroll’s old-fashioned, predictable style and counting on the Bears to just be worse than them rather than actually trying to optimize their own performance.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

As discussed in the Seattle portion of this breakdown, the Seahawks have been unable to sustain play volume throughout the entire season. While the Seahawks play volume has been pretty steady, the play volume of their opponents has depended on game flow. When the Seahawks have controlled games this year or played against efficient offenses that were able to have success against their defense, those games resulted in heightened play volume for the opponent. In close games, the result has been painfully slow games with low play volume for both sides. Unfortunately, in this spot, the likeliest scenario is a low-scoring game with very modest play volume. The reality is that while Seattle has passed at a high rate, they have been very inefficient and are facing a defense that forces things underneath and takes away big plays. On the other side, Chicago has struggled to consistently move the ball, and Matt Nagy just can’t get out of his own way. One of Pete Carroll or Matt Nagy will get a win on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean that either of them will deserve it.

Tributaries ::

---

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

---

DFS+ Interpretation ::