Kickoff Sunday, Dec 26th 4:05pm Eastern

Bears (
17) at

Hawks (
24)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
22nd DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
22nd DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
10th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
11th DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
21st DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
6th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
31st DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
32nd DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • This game features two teams on a short week who are out of the playoff hunt.
  • The forecast calls for a cold, damp game with temperatures in the 20’s and precipitation earlier in the day (likely clearing by gametime).
  • Both offenses are bottom-10 in the league in scoring and play at a middling to below average pace.
  • Surprisingly, both of these teams are top-10 in the league in pass rate since Week 11 (after both teams had their byes).

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears have three games in the last five weeks against similar opponents to what they will see this week from the Seahawks. Those games were against the Vikings, Lions, and Ravens. From my perspective, those similarities are in the approaches of the respective teams as they all have defensive-minded head coaches who prefer to play old-school football when they can, trying to win by controlling the ball and avoiding mistakes. Pete Carroll seems like he would certainly fit that mold as well, which is why I am making that comparison. In those three games, the final scores have been 16-13, 16-14, and 17-9 – an average of 28.3 total points per game. 

The Bears are a team that operates at a slow pace (23rd in the league in situation-neutral pace of play) and also does not force the issue on its opponents with its play-calling or aggressiveness. Their lack of offensive explosiveness and conservative approach allows opponents to decide if they want to reciprocate with a similar approach or become aggressive on their own. As alluded to earlier, this has played out on the field over the past several weeks with opponents who have weaker offenses and/or strong defenses electing to keep things close to the vest and try to grind out wins against the Bears. Matt Nagy is in survival mode and doing anything he can to try to save face and hold on to his job as the season comes to a close. In reality, he would be wise to open things up and try to inject some excitement into the team/franchise by using Justin Fields in creative ways and becoming more aggressive. Nagy’s best chance to save his job isn’t going to be with a couple of meaningless, boring 17-13 wins to end the year….he would have a much better chance to be kept around if they lose a couple of 34-28 games where Fields flashes his potential. This is Matt Nagy we are talking about, however, and I don’t expect him to have that type of foresight. Instead, we should expect to see much of the same Bears team that we’ve seen throughout the year with a conservative approach and Nagy just hoping things stay close late in the game and variance bounces their way.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Pete Carroll loves old-school football. Rashaad Penny against the Texans and then Deejay Dallas against the Rams. Seattle now has two backs who have shown the ability to be efficient and productive in recent weeks and a home game in cold weather against a bottom-tier defense. Seattle operates at a league-average pace of play, but that number is slightly misleading as they tend to operate with more tempo against better defenses and opponents as a means of slowing down pass rushes and keeping them from subbing in fresh players. They employed this tactic on a few occasions on Tuesday night against the Rams. However, in games against weaker competition, they tend to revert to their old habits of playing slow, methodical football.

Seattle’s passing game, although throwing at a higher rate of late, has been wildly inefficient since Russell Wilson’s return from a finger injury. Wilson has averaged over eight yards per attempt only once in the six games since his return, and that game was two weeks ago against the Texans and their very poor defense. Now they play a Chicago team that gives up the 4th lowest yards per attempt to opposing offenses. Another huge issue for Seattle continues to be their inability to rack up play volume, ranking dead last in the league at 55.2 plays per game. Seattle’s predictable tendencies of running in obvious situations and taking downfield shots make it likely that they continue their trend of low play volume as they are likely to put themselves in long down and distance situations and their route concepts and personnel are not diverse enough to overcome defenses that drop into coverage and keep things in front of them. Seattle will try to win by playing Pete Carroll’s old-fashioned, predictable style and counting on the Bears to just be worse than them rather than actually trying to optimize their own performance.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

As discussed in the Seattle portion of this breakdown, the Seahawks have been unable to sustain play volume throughout the entire season. While the Seahawks play volume has been pretty steady, the play volume of their opponents has depended on game flow. When the Seahawks have controlled games this year or played against efficient offenses that were able to have success against their defense, those games resulted in heightened play volume for the opponent. In close games, the result has been painfully slow games with low play volume for both sides. Unfortunately, in this spot, the likeliest scenario is a low-scoring game with very modest play volume. The reality is that while Seattle has passed at a high rate, they have been very inefficient and are facing a defense that forces things underneath and takes away big plays. On the other side, Chicago has struggled to consistently move the ball, and Matt Nagy just can’t get out of his own way. One of Pete Carroll or Matt Nagy will get a win on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean that either of them will deserve it.

Tributaries ::

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • Total of 43 is the 5th lowest on the slate (dropped 2 points)
  • SEA is favored by 6.5 after opening 5.5
  • CHI avgs 17.1 pts/g (29th) // SEA allows 20.1 pts/g (4th)
  • SEA avgs 20.1 pts/g (24th) // CHI allows 24.9 (24th)
  • Over their last 3, CHI has allowed 31.7 pts/g (worst in the league)
  • CHI is 4-10 & 4-10 ATS
  • SEA is 5-9 & 7-7 ATS

CHI QBs:

  • Andy Dalton was just removed from the COVID list after being added Dec 17th
  • Fields is dealing with an ankle injury but has been practicing in a limited fashion
  • Fields last 2: (26:39:285:1 TD, 7:35, 17.9 DK pts) // (18:33:224:2 TDs:2 INTs, 21.4 DK pts)
  • Fields’ best game came WK 8 vs SF: (17:29 291:1 TD: 1 INT // 10:103:1 TD // 29.3 DK pts)
  • SF allows the 3rd most rush yds to QBs // SEA allows the 4th least rush yds/g to QBs (12.4)
  • SEA allows 18.9 DK pts to QBs (middle of the league)

CHI WRs:

  • Allen Robinson (Q) has missed the last 3 of 4 games (hamstring, COVID)
  • Robinson was added to the COVID list Dec 16th 
  • Last week w/o Robinson: Darnell Mooney (5:63, 7 tgts) // Damiere Byrd (5:62, 6 tgts) // Dazz Newsom (0:0, 1 tgt)
  • Mooney’s price has dropped from a season high $5.7k two and four weeks ago to $5.4k this week
  • He has 3 games over 100 rec yds
  • Of 36 tgts last week, Field threw only 14 to WRs
  • SEA allows the 13th least DK pts to WRs (35.4)

CHI TEs:

  • Cole Kmet led the team in rec (6), tgts (9), & yds (71) last week 
  • Kmet’s price ($3.3k) has dropped from a season high of $3.7k four weeks ago
  • SEA allows 9.0 DK pts/g to TEs (T-5th least)

CHI RBs:

  • David Montgomerey has 3 games with 20 or more atts
  • Montgomery ($5.7k) is the lowest price he’s been this season
  • Last week Khalil Herbert played 16 snaps w/ 4 tgts but zero rush atts
  • SEA allows the 2nd most DK pts to TEs (36.3)

Russell Wilson:

  • Wilson is $6.1k for the second straight week
  • It’s his lowest price of the season
  • He’s only scored 20+ DK pts once in his last seven
  • The last two weeks he’s only completed 17 passes
  • He’s only thrown for 300+ one time back in WK 2
  • DK log since returning from injury WK 10: (5.2, 21.2, 17.7, 19.5, 8.5, 7.6)
  • CHI allows the 8th most DK pts to QBs (20.0)

SEA WRs:

  • Tyler Lockett was added to the COVID list Dec 16th
  • Pete Carroll stated Lockett is close to being re-activated
  • Lockett has 5 games w/ 100+ rec yds
  • DK pts in those games: (30.2, 18.5, 29.2, 34.8, 29.0)
  • Metcalf has one game w/ 100+ rec yds
  • He hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since WK 8 
  • He has 3 games with 20+ 
  • His price ($6.4k) is the same as last week, tying his cheapest all season
  • Lockett has 4 games w/ 29+ DK pts
  • CHI allows the 8th most DK pts to WRs (37.5)

SEA TEs: 

  • Will Dissly was added to the COVID list Dec 22nd and likely won’t play
  • Tgts: Everett (4, 2, 4, 5, 3, 8)  
  • Besides Dissly & Everett, Colby Parkinson is the SEA TE with a rec
  • CHI allows 9.0 DK pts to WRs (T-5th fewest)

SEA RBs:

  • Travis Homer was added to the COVID list Dec 19th and is questionable
  • He hasn’t played since WK 13
  • Atts last 3: Rashaad Penny (2, 16, 10) // Alex Collins (10, 7, DNP) // Homer (1, DNP, 3) // DeeJay Dallas (4, 2, DNP)
  • SEA has only has 2 games where an RB rushed for 100+: (Penny WK 14, 29.8 DK pts) // (Collins WK 6, 19.8 DK pts)
  • CHI allows the 15th fewest DK pts to RBs (22.5)