Kickoff Sunday, Dec 5th 1:00pm Eastern

Giants (
16.75) at

Dolphins (
23.25)

Over/Under 40.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
21st DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
20th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
23rd DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
4th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
7th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
31st DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
19th DVOA/31st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • Mike Glennon is priced at the stone minimum on DK 
  • Saquon Barkley saw 87% of the snaps last week 
  • The Dolphins’ backfield has become a timeshare with the addition of Phillip Lindsay
  • The Dolphins’ defensive system works best against weaker passers and mobile QBs

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 4-7 Giants come into Week 13 trying to transition between offensive coordinators. That’s a hard switch to make this late in the season and is more a test run for next year than being able to expect anything right now. Freddie Kitchens took over play-calling duties last week, and his offense produced a lackluster 13 points against the non-scary Eagles’ defense. That isn’t an indictment of Kitchens’ offense. It’s a reflection of how difficult it is to change everything in Week 12. Kitchens was a capable play-caller when he was just an offensive coordinator, and he should find his footing again once he gets some of his concepts installed.

This week the G-men draw a Dolphins team that is middling against the pass and run (14th in DVOA/12th in DVOA) and is defined by their defensive style rather than their DVOA rankings. The Dolphins play man coverage and blitz at one of the highest rates in the league. They play a high-risk/high-reward system that tends to work better against weaker QBs, especially ones that rely on their legs rather than passing accuracy. Daniel Jones is doubtful early in the week with a mysterious neck strain he apparently suffered early last week, even though he never left the game. Mike Glennon is the type of QB that will make mistakes against aggressive defenses, and the Giants would be wise to try and limit his exposure to turnovers. Freddie Kitchens is likely to understand the risks associated with allowing Glennon to cut it loose, leading to a more conservative game plan. Expect the Giants to try and establish the run, but also keep in mind that this offense is in Week 2, not Week 13, and there is a lot of uncertainty.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

The 5-7 Dolphins are riding a four-game win streak and have entered the discussion as a bubble team for a wildcard playoff berth. Those four wins have come against the Texans/Ravens/Jets/Panthers, and while that isn’t the strongest competition, they did beat a good Ravens team and drew another weak opponent this week. The Dolphins have been playing pass-leaning balanced football on offense while allowing their defense to win games. The Dolphins’ defense performs better against weaker QBs (especially ones that rely on their legs) and has held every team in their last four games under 17 points.

This week Miami gets a Giants team in transition on offense and capable of being beaten on defense. The Giants fare better against the pass (7th in DVOA) than the run (31st in DVOA), making them one of the clearer run funnel defenses in the league. Brian Flores hasn’t always looked like a sharp coach, but he should be able to figure out that the best way to win this game is remaining balanced while allowing his defense to get after Mike Glennon. The Giants are likely to experience confusion on offense, and confusion should get punished against a team that isn’t going to sit back and let the QB figure things out. Expect the Dolphins to allow their offense to do just enough while riding their aggressive defense to victory.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a tiny 41.5 total and projects as a defensive affair between one team that is trying to figure things out offensively and another that is happy to win games on defense. The game is expected to be close, with both teams playing conservatively, which should keep this game lower scoring. The most likely game flow has the Dolphins relying on their defense to give them short fields and create turnovers. The fish should slowly pull away as the Giants struggle on offense, eventually winning a game that looks closer on the scoreboard than it was on the field.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Since opening, and Daniel Jones now likely to miss, Vegas total has fallen from 45.5 to 41
  • That is, by far, the lowest total on the week (next lowest is BAL @ PIT with 44)
  • NYG’s implied total of 18 is the second lowest
  • Per numberFire, MIA ranks 20th in adjusted seconds per play (29.9) and third in adjusted pass rate (65.1%)
  • NYG ranks 15th in adjusted seconds per play (29.3) and 18th in adjusted pass rate (58.9%)
  • Both offenses rank in the bottom 10 in points per game (MIA with 19.5, NYG with 18.4)
  • Per Lineups.com, NYG’s offense is the worst in red zone TD percentage (43.3%)
  • MIA’s defense ranks fifth in red zone TD percentage allowed (51.1%) & NYG’s defense ranks eighth (52.3%)

Mike Glennon (yes, really)

  • With one start this year, ranks 38th in PFF passing grade
  • In 14 career games since 2014, Glennon has averaged 14.51 DK pts
  • MIA ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20.4)
  • No opposing QBs have hit 20 DK pts in the past four weeks
  • Only four have hit 20 DK pts all season: Matt Ryan 22.44 // Derek Carr 25.24 // Josh Allen 29.46 // Tom Brady 40.74

NYG Passing Attack

  • Snap totals in Weeks 11 & 12 (post Week 10 bye): Evan Engram 106 // Kenny Golladay 90 // Darius Slayton 78 // Pharoh Cooper 48 // Chris Myarick 38 // Kadarius Toney 35
  • Target counts: Toney 12 / – // Slayton 7 / 4 // Engram 5 / 6 // Golladay 2 / 7
  • No NYG WR has scored 15+ DK pts since Dante Pettis in Week 7 vs. CAR
  • Toney had 12 targets in Week 11, the most of any NYG player since Sterling Shepard’s 14 in Week 6, but his status is unclear for Week 13
  • Slayton hasn’t hit 15 pts all season, but has scored double digits twice (14.4 @ WAS & 11.3 vs. CAR)
  • In seven games with decent snap share, Golladay has scored double digits just three times (10.4 vs. DEN, 10.4 vs. ATL, & 20.6 @ NO)
  • MIA ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (42)
  • Despite that lowly ranking, Elijah Moore’s 32.6 in Week 11 was the first 20+ performance since Cole Beasley’s 24 in Week 8
  • Engram had three straight weeks of double digit points, starting in Week 7: 10.4 vs. CAR // 10.5 @ KC // 12.8 vs. LV
  • MIA ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to TEs (14.6)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Darren Waller 10.4 // Mark Andrews 18.3 // Mo Alie-Cox 19.2 // Kyle Pitts 26.3

Saquon Barkley

  • Since returning from injury, Barkley ranks 39th in PFF rushing grade
  • In Week 11, his first week back, he had a 59% share of the RB snaps
  • In Week 12, that jumped to 76%
  • He’s averaged 5.5 targets in the last two weeks
  • 12 total touches in Week 11, 17 total touches in Week 12
  • He only scored 11.6 & 9.3 fantasy points
  • MIA ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.2)
  • The last RB to score double digit points vs. MIA was Zack Moss (11.8) in Week 8
  • That list of RBs includes CMC (injured in the game), Michael Carter (injured in the game), BAL RBs, and HOU RBs
  • Three RBs have hit 20+ vs. MIA: Leonard Fournette 21 // Jonathan Taylor 23.4 // Peyton Barber 26.2

Tua Tagovailoa

  • Ranks 17th in PFF passing grade
  • Averaging 21 completions on 29 attempts, for 213 yards, 1.25 TDs, and 0.75 INTs
  • Three rushing TDs on the season
  • Averaging 17.07 DK ppg
  • Only two scores of 20+ pts: 25.36 @ JAX & 28.54 vs. ATL
  • NYG ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Teddy Bridgewater 20.46 // Tom Brady 23.28 // Taylor Heinicke 24.04 // Dak Prescott 25.68 // Matthew Stafford 26.24

MIA Passing Attack

  • On the season, MIA utilizes 11 personnel at the lowest rate (27%, league average is 59%) and 12 personnel at the highest rate (61%, average is 22%)
  • In the past four weeks, their usage of 11 personnel has been 11% and the usage of 12 personnel has been 74%
  • Seasonal snap share: Jaylen Waddle 82.3% // Mike Gesicki 73.5% // Mack Hollins 35.2% // Albert Wilson 31.3% // Preston Williams 19.3%
  • Target share: Waddle 22.6% // Gesicki 17% // Wilson 6.3% // Hollins 4.8% // Williams 3.5%
  • Waddle’s DK log the last four games: 16.3 // 10.1 // 20.6 // 31.7
  • Target counts in those games: 10 // 6 // 9 // 10
  • Wilson had 14.6 pts vs. BAL but has otherwise failed to hit 7
  • Hollins has multiple zeros on the year, but has also hit double digits three times
  • Williams hasn’t scored double digits in over a year
  • NYG ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (37)
  • Four WRs have scored 20+ against NYG: Mike Evans 20.3 // Tyreek Hill 27.4 // Terry McLaurin 30.7 // Cooper Kupp 37
  • Gesicki’s 6.5 targets per game ranks seventh among all TEs
  • His three targets in Week 12 matched a season low (Week 1)
  • 10.7 DK ppg ranks 10th
  • NYG ranks 15th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (12.4)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Juwan Johnson 10 // Noah Fant 12.2 // Rob Gronkowski 13.1 // Dalton Schultz 13.9 // Darren Waller 16.2

Myles Gaskin

  • 56.5% seasonal snap share
  • With the addition of Phillip Lindsay last week, Gaskin saw his lowest snap count (37) since Week 6
  • 11.7% target share
  • Two targets in Week 12 matched a season low (Week 10)
  • Averaging 15.2 touches per game
  • Week 12 marked the first time all year that another RB had double digit touches (Phillip Lindsay with 12)
  • Gaskin still led the way with 18
  • NYG ranks 28th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (28)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: JD McKissic 20.3 // Melvin Gordon 23.8 // Darrell Henderson 24.7 // Ezekiel Elliott 28.2