Kickoff Sunday, Dec 5th 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
24.5) at

Jets (
19.5)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
25th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
17th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
3rd DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
23rd DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Jets Run D
12th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
10th DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
32nd DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
4th DVOA/25th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>
  • Zach Wilson impacts the entire Jets offense.
  • Both backfields are timeshares.
  • The Eagles defense isn’t cheap, but they’re playing Zach Wilson.
  • There isn’t a lot to love for DFS in this game.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The 5-7 Eagles come into this one fresh off a loss to the division rival Giants in a game that they’d probably like to have back. The Giants weren’t even sure who was going to call plays during the week and ultimately had a poor offensive performance resulting in only 13 points. The Eagles, who must’ve felt as if they had found a winning formula the past month, posted a dud against a Giants defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone on the ground, which is the exact way this Eagles team wants to attack. The Eagles have been playing fast (3rd in situational neutral pace) but are willing to slow way down (21st in pace when ahead) if they are controlling a game. The Eagles want to take a lead with an up-tempo running game, then salt the game away by running out the clock in the second half.

The Jets have been pathetic on defense and can be walked over on the ground (30th in DOVA) or soared past through the air (31st in DOVA), ranking dead last in overall DVOA by a significant margin. The Eagles should be able to attack in any manner they choose, and the manner they have been choosing is running the football. Clouding the Eagles gameplan is the possibility that Jalen Hurts sits, but he has said publicly that he intends to play. Assuming Hurts plays, expect more of the same up-tempo running game before pumping the breaks with a lead.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 3-8 Jets are amazingly worse than their record. They stunned the Titans in OT by three, upset the Bengals in a Mike White special by three, and knocked off a talentless Texans team last week by seven. All three of their wins have come by one score and the Jets could easily be 1-9. Robert Saleh wants to win with defense and mistake free football. The problem? His defense stinks and his rookie QB is a turnover machine. It must be difficult in the Jets locker room knowing that Joe Flacco (maybe even Mike White) gives them a better chance to win games, but that they are unlikely to see either without an injury to Zach Wilson.

The Jets play slowly (20th in situational neutral pace) to try and hide their deficiencies at QB.  Wilson has been kept under 35 attempts in every healthy game since Week 1 and has managed to throw an INT in every full game he has played. Last week, the Jets limited him to 24 attempts, and he still tossed a pick. The Eagles can be beaten through the air (23rd in DVOA) and are more middling against the run (16th in DVOA). That difference shouldn’t be enough to tilt the Jets away from trying to run the ball and hope something breaks their way to keep them in the game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a moderate total of 45.5 which is being dragged down by the fact that the Jets don’t set up well to score points. The Eagles have been happy to win on the ground and grind down the clock in games they control, and that game flow is the most likely outcome. Expect Philly to have success offensively by running the ball and mixing in enough passing on key third downs, before slowing things down in the second half with a lead.


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DFS+ Interpretation :

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Jalen Hurts may miss in Week 13
  • 45.5 Vegas total is tied for fourth lowest in Week 13
  • NYJ’s implied total of 19.5 is sixth lowest
  • Per numberFire, PHI ranks 17th in adjusted seconds per play (29.4) and 28th in adjusted pass rate (51.6%)
  • NYJ ranks 28th in adjusted seconds per play (31.1) and 10th in adjusted pass rate (60.8%)
  • NYJ allows the most points per game (30.4)

Jalen Hurts

  • Gardner Minshew may start instead
  • Hurts ranks 16th in PFF passing grade
  • He’s averaging the second most rushing yards per game among QBs (57.8)
  • 22.5 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • Week 12’s 9.86 pts were the first single digit performance in his career
  • Scored 20+ eight times this year, including two 30+ pt outputs
  • NYJ ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.6)
  • Notable opposing QB performances: Sam Darnold 20.06 // Joe Burrow 21.26 // Carson Wentz 24.18 // Matt Ryan 24.58 // Josh Allen 24.94 // Mac Jones 25.18

PHI Passing Attack

  • Snap share: DeVonta Smith 87.7% // Quez Watkins 84.1% // Dallas Goedert 68.8% // Jalen Reagor 68.1%
  • Target share: Smith 22% // Goedert 14.1% // Reagor 12.7% // Watkins 12.1%
  • Smith’s 22% target share amounts to just 6.5 targets per game
  • Smith’s averaging 10.63 DK ppg, with five single digit performances
  • Reagor’s averaging 5.66 DK ppg
  • Watkins hasn’t hit double digits since Week 2
  • NYJ ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (35.6)
  • Just two WRs have scored 20+ vs. NYJ: Jaylen Waddle 20.6 // Stefon Diggs 33.2
  • Goedert’s averaging 4.5 targets per game this season and 8.9 DK ppg
  • NYJ ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to TEs (14.4)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Mike Gesicki 10 // Hunter Henry 10.3 // Brevin Jordan 11.3 (who?) // Hayden Hurst 13 // Kyle Pitts 29.9

PHI RBs

  • Miles Sanders returned from injury in Week 11 to lead the backfield in snaps
  • He was hurt himself in Week 12 and his status is uncertain as of Wednesday evening
  • The highest touch count by any PHI RB came back in Week 1, when Sanders had 19 touches
  • Kenneth Gainwell’s 20.9 pts vs. KC in Week 4 were the only time a PHI RB his 20 DK pts
  • NYJ ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs (36.6)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Nyheim Hines 20.8 // Joe Mixon 25.1 // CMC 27.7 // Damien Harris 28.3 // Derrick Henry 28.7 // Jonathan Taylor 37

Zach Wilson

  • Ranks 37th in PFF passing grade
  • Averaging just 188 passing yards, 0.6 TDs, and 1.4 INTs per game
  • He’s yet to score 20 DK pts
  • PHI ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Dak Prescott 21.12 // Derek Carr 23.02 // Trevor Siemian 26.16 // Patrick Mahomes 32.72 // Justin Herbert 34.64

NYJ Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Ryan Griffin 65.5% // Corey Davis 56.6% // Elijah Moore 56.6% // Jamison Crowder 49.8% // Keelan Cole 45%
  • Target share: Moore 15.3% // Davis 13.2% // Crowder 11.8% // Griffin 8.3% // Cole 7.8%
  • Moore has led or tied for the team lead in targets in three of the past four weeks
  • Target counts of 8, 6, 11, 8
  • DK totals of 27.4, 13.4, 32.6, 9.3
  • Davis missed Week 12 and missed practice on Wednesday
  • He hasn’t scored 15 DK pts since Week 4 (24.1)
  • Crowder was targeted just once in Week 12, but has had at least six targets in all other games
  • Three double digit performances: 19.1 vs. TEN // 17.4 vs. CIN // 16.4 vs. MIA
  • Cole has yet to score 15 pts this season
  • PHI ranks second in DK ppg allowed to WRs (29.1)
  • Only three WRs have scored 20+ pts vs. PHI: Antonio Brown 24.3 // Keenan Allen 25.4 // Tyreek Hill 50.6
  • Griffin’s target counts the past four weeks: 7 // 2 // 4 // 4
  • DK log: 12.8 // 3.1 // 6.9 // 5
  • PHI ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to TEs (18.9)
  • List of opposing TEs who have scored double digit pts vs. PHI: Albert Okwuegbunam // Jared Cook // Noah Fant // Donald Parham // Adam Trautman // OJ Howard // Foster Moreau // TJ Hockenson // Dalton Schultz

NYJ RBs

  • With Michael Carter hurt, Week 12 snap totals: Tevin Coleman 30 // Ty Johnson 23 // Austin Walter 16 (again, who?)
  • Target counts in Week 12: Coleman 3 // Walter 1 // Johnson 1
  • Touches: Coleman 18 // Walter 9 // Johnson 6
  • PHI ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to RBs (26)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Chuba Hubbard 21.4 // CEH 22.4 // Ezekiel Elliott 26.6 // Leonard Fournette 30.7