Kickoff Sunday, Dec 5th 4:25pm Eastern

Jaguars (
17) at

Rams (
31)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
4th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
16th DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
3rd DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
21st DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Rams Run D
1st DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
15th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
27th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
5th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • Jacksonville has not scored 20 points in a game on American soil since September.
  • These are the two fastest paced offenses in the league in terms of seconds per play.
  • The Jaguars are at a significant personnel disadvantage on both sides of the ball.
  • The Rams are much more incentivized to be aggressive and push this game offensively than a team with their record would normally be in a matchup like this so late in the season.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Jacksonville is going to need to score points to have a chance in this game, something they’ve struggled with for the entire season. They’ve only scored 20 points once since September, and that was in their London game against the Dolphins. The Jaguars are going to have a lot of trouble handling the Rams defensive front, as the Rams boast PFF’s #1 graded unit in both rush defense and pass rush. The Jaguars have a decent offensive line, but this will be their toughest test of the season on all fronts — especially in a game where they are likely to be forced to be aggressive offensively.

The Rams don’t really have a “weakness” defensively, as many of their struggles recently have been caused by offensive turnovers and just playing very crisp, efficient offenses in the Packers and 49ers. The Jaguars don’t have an elite scheme or personnel, setting up a long day for them offensively. The Rams incredibly have six defensive players whose PFF grade is in the top-10 at their respective positions. If there was a spot for Jacksonville to attack, it would be the Rams cornerbacks not named Jalen Ramsey.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams are the most pass-heavy team in the league since Week 7, throwing at a situation-neutral rate of 68%. They are now facing the 32nd ranked DVOA pass defense in the league, who is traveling across the country. There was news prior to last week’s games that Matthew Stafford is dealing with a lot of injuries, but the Rams were still aggressive through the air, and this matchup calls for more of the same. The Rams have PFF’s #1 graded offensive line in terms of pass blocking, so they should have no issues giving Stafford a clean pocket and keeping him upright.

Given the Rams’ recent struggles and the fact that they are still finding their groove in a post-Robert Woods world, they should be very aggressive and pass-heavy early in this game. The Rams started the season 7-1 before losing their last three games by an average of almost 14 points per game. If ever there was a classic “get right” spot, this is it. The Rams need to get their swagger back to make a run down the stretch of the season and get some momentum heading into the playoffs. The urgency here will be very apparent. There is an obvious concern for the game script to get out of hand and the Rams to pack things in early, but there should be plenty of volume and efficiency through the passing game “on the way up.” The running game should also have success and be carried along for the ride due to how easily the Rams are likely to be able to move the ball. The Rams are likely to play with tempo in their home stadium against an inferior opponent as they look to right the ship.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Rams should have offensive success early and often in this game, while the Jaguars will likely struggle until the game is well in hand for Los Angeles. The Jaguars were able to pull an upset on the Bills in a similar spot a few weeks ago, but that game was in Jacksonville, and the issue the Bills had was their complete inability to run the ball, and the Jaguars sold out to stop the pass without having to pay for it. The Rams running scheme is one of the best in the league, however, and the Jaguars really won’t have that option in this game.

The Jaguars are a team that plays with the fastest pace in the league, and while that is influenced by their frequently negative game scripts, we should be expecting much of the same here. For two to three quarters, we should see very high play volume as the Rams love to play fast, especially at home, and the Jaguars won’t have much of a choice once they fall behind. If, somehow, the Jaguars score some points and/or get out to an early lead, that would only serve to push the Rams even more, and if Jacksonville tried to sit on the ball, it would just be a lot of “three and out” type of possessions.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • 4th highest total 47.5
  • Total has risen .5 pts
  • LAR opened favored by 9.5 but it’s risen to 13
  • They’ve lost 3 straight (GB, SF, TEN)
  • JAX has also lost 3 straight (ATL, SF, IND)
  • LAR ranks 8th in pts/g (27.2)
  • JAX ranks 31st (15.7)
  • LAR pts in last 3: (28, 10, 16)
  • JAX pts last 5 since bye: (14, 10, 17, 9, 7)

Trevor Lawrence:

  • Lowest price of season ($5.1k)
  • Season long price range ($5.1k-$6.2k)
  • Lawrence broke 20 DK pts twice: (Week 5 vs TEN, 22.7) // Week 1 @ HOU, 25.1)
  • DK pts last 6: (18.0, 8.6, 10.8, 5.1, 13.6)
  • 20+ DK pts vs LAC: Rodgers (29.3) // Roethlisberger (22.9) // Davis Mills (24.4) // Kyler Murray (22.6) // Tom Brady (31.7)
  • LAR allows the 17th most DK pts to QBs (25.2)

JAX WRs:

  • Snaps:Routes Run last week: Marvin Jones (71:44) // Laquon Treadwell (63:39) // 
  • Laviska Shenault (53:36) // Tavon Austin 13:7)
  • Tgts: Treadwell (8) // Jones (7) // Shenault (9) // Austin (2)
  • Jones is the only JAX WR to have 100 yds or more rec
  • Shenault & Jones both have 1 game w/ 10+ tgts
  • Jones ($4.7k) is the cheapest he’s been since Week 2
  • Shenault ($4.4k) has only been cheaper in Week 11 vs SF
  • Treadwell ($3.2k) // Austin ($3.1k)
  • LAR allows the 8th most DK pts to WRs (38.1)

JAX RBs:

  • James Robinson ($6.2k) has no games w/ 20 rush atts
  • Season price range: $5.7k-$6.4k)
  • 7 TDs in 10 games
  • Rush atts since missing Week 9: (17, 12, 12)
  • Robinson broke 20 DK pts 3 straight weeks (Weeks 3-5) 
  • DK pts since: (13.5, 11.6, 18.4, 4.9-injured, 19.1)
  • He’s broke 100+ yds once (Week 5 vs TEN, 149 yds)
  • Hyde rush atts last three (6, 0 2)
  • LAR allows the 11th least DK pts to RBs (23.3)

JAX TEs: 

  • James O’Shaughnessy saw 5 tgts last week after being out since Week 2
  • LAR allows the 12th most DK pts to TEs (13.4)

Matthew Stafford:

  • Stafford has 6 games w/ 20+ & 30+ in two others
  • LAR ranks 5th in pass yds/g
  • JAX allows the 18th most (244.5)
  • Stafford (7.3k) price range: ($6.2k-$7.7k)
  • Only Lamar ($7.8k) & Murray ($7.5k) are more expensive
  • 20+ DK pts against JAX: Geno Smith (22.6) // Tua Tagovailoa (25.4) // Joe Burrow (25.3) // Kyler Murray (22.5) // Teddy Bridgewater (24.2) // Tyrod Taylor (23.64)
  • JAX allows the 8th least DK pts/g to QBs (18.7)

LAR WRs:

  • Tgts last 2 w/o Robert Woods: Cooper Kupp (23) // Van Jefferson (16) // Odell Beckham (13)
  • Kupps ($9.0k) price has dropped by $600 this week from a season high $9.6k last week
  • He was only $5.5k Week 1 (Crazy!)
  • Kupp has 90+ rec yds every game but one
  • He’s hit the 100 yd bonus 6 times in 11 games
  • Kupp has double digit tgts in every game but Week 8 @ HOU
  • $5.5k is the cheapest OBJ has been since Week 5
  • Van Jefferson’s ($5.3k) price rose $400 from last week & is at a season high
  • He has 80+ yds in 4 games & one 10 tgt game
  • OBJ’s 10 tgts & 81 rec yds last week were the most he’s had all season
  • He has zero no games w/ 6 or more catches
  • JAX allows the 11th most DK pts to WRs (37.9)

LAR TEs:

  • Higbee ($3.8k) is the cheapest he’s been all season
  • One 10 tgt game // 3 TDs
  • No games over 15 DK pts // 4 with 10+ pts
  • JAX allows the 12th most DK pts to TEs (13.4)

LAR RBs:

  • Darrell Henderson (Q) didn’t practice Wed or Thurs 
  • Sony Michel Week 3 w/o Henderson: Rush (20:67 yds) Rec (2:12, 4 tgts)
  • $4.3k is towards the lower end of his season price range ($4.0k-$5.2k)
  • Henderson has 14+ atts in every game but one (Week 10 loss to SF)
  • He has 2 games with 20+ DK pts (22.3, 24.7)
  • Avg 3.8 tgts/g
  • 0 games of 100+ rush yds
  • JAX allows the 12th most DK pts to RBs (25.2)