Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• Mike Glennon is priced at the stone minimum on DK 
• Saquon Barkley saw 87% of the snaps last week 
• The Dolphins’ backfield has become a timeshare with the addition of Phillip Lindsay
• The Dolphins’ defensive system works best against weaker passers and mobile QBs

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 4-7 Giants come into Week 13 trying to transition between offensive coordinators. That’s a hard switch to make this late in the season and is more a test run for next year than being able to expect anything right now. Freddie Kitchens took over play-calling duties last week, and his offense produced a lackluster 13 points against the non-scary Eagles’ defense. That isn’t an indictment of Kitchens’ offense. It’s a reflection of how difficult it is to change everything in Week 12. Kitchens was a capable play-caller when he was just an offensive coordinator, and he should find his footing again once he gets some of his concepts installed.

This week the G-men draw a Dolphins team that is middling against the pass and run (14th in DVOA/12th in DVOA) and is defined by their defensive style rather than their DVOA rankings. The Dolphins play man coverage and blitz at one of the highest rates in the league. They play a high-risk/high-reward system that tends to work better against weaker QBs, especially ones that rely on their legs rather than passing accuracy. Daniel Jones is doubtful early in the week with a mysterious neck strain he apparently suffered early last week, even though he never left the game. Mike Glennon is the type of QB that will make mistakes against aggressive defenses, and the Giants would be wise to try and limit his exposure to turnovers. Freddie Kitchens is likely to understand the risks associated with allowing Glennon to cut it loose, leading to a more conservative game plan. Expect the Giants to try and establish the run, but also keep in mind that this offense is in Week 2, not Week 13, and there is a lot of uncertainty.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

The 5-7 Dolphins are riding a four-game win streak and have entered the discussion as a bubble team for a wildcard playoff berth. Those four wins have come against the Texans/Ravens/Jets/Panthers, and while that isn’t the strongest competition, they did beat a good Ravens team and drew another weak opponent this week. The Dolphins have been playing pass-leaning balanced football on offense while allowing their defense to win games. The Dolphins’ defense performs better against weaker QBs (especially ones that rely on their legs) and has held every team in their last four games under 17 points.

This week Miami gets a Giants team in transition on offense and capable of being beaten on defense. The Giants fare better against the pass (7th in DVOA) than the run (31st in DVOA), making them one of the clearer run funnel defenses in the league. Brian Flores hasn’t always looked like a sharp coach, but he should be able to figure out that the best way to win this game is remaining balanced while allowing his defense to get after Mike Glennon. The Giants are likely to experience confusion on offense, and confusion should get punished against a team that isn’t going to sit back and let the QB figure things out. Expect the Dolphins to allow their offense to do just enough while riding their aggressive defense to victory.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a tiny 41.5 total and projects as a defensive affair between one team that is trying to figure things out offensively and another that is happy to win games on defense. The game is expected to be close, with both teams playing conservatively, which should keep this game lower scoring. The most likely game flow has the Dolphins relying on their defense to give them short fields and create turnovers. The fish should slowly pull away as the Giants struggle on offense, eventually winning a game that looks closer on the scoreboard than it was on the field.

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Game Overview ::

By papy324>>

• Zach Wilson impacts the entire Jets offense.
• Both backfields are timeshares.
• The Eagles defense isn’t cheap, but they’re playing Zach Wilson.
• There isn’t a lot to love for DFS in this game.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The 5-7 Eagles come into this one fresh off a loss to the division rival Giants in a game that they’d probably like to have back. The Giants weren’t even sure who was going to call plays during the week and ultimately had a poor offensive performance resulting in only 13 points. The Eagles, who must’ve felt as if they had found a winning formula the past month, posted a dud against a Giants defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone on the ground, which is the exact way this Eagles team wants to attack. The Eagles have been playing fast (3^rd in situational neutral pace) but are willing to slow way down (21^st in pace when ahead) if they are controlling a game. The Eagles want to take a lead with an up-tempo running game, then salt the game away by running out the clock in the second half.

The Jets have been pathetic on defense and can be walked over on the ground (30^th in DOVA) or soared past through the air (31^st in DOVA), ranking dead last in overall DVOA by a significant margin. The Eagles should be able to attack in any manner they choose, and the manner they have been choosing is running the football. Clouding the Eagles gameplan is the possibility that Jalen Hurts sits, but he has said publicly that he intends to play. Assuming Hurts plays, expect more of the same up-tempo running game before pumping the breaks with a lead.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 3-8 Jets are amazingly worse than their record. They stunned the Titans in OT by three, upset the Bengals in a Mike White special by three, and knocked off a talentless Texans team last week by seven. All three of their wins have come by one score and the Jets could easily be 1-9. Robert Saleh wants to win with defense and mistake free football. The problem? His defense stinks and his rookie QB is a turnover machine. It must be difficult in the Jets locker room knowing that Joe Flacco (maybe even Mike White) gives them a better chance to win games, but that they are unlikely to see either without an injury to Zach Wilson.

The Jets play slowly (20^th in situational neutral pace) to try and hide their deficiencies at QB.  Wilson has been kept under 35 attempts in every healthy game since Week 1 and has managed to throw an INT in every full game he has played. Last week, the Jets limited him to 24 attempts, and he still tossed a pick. The Eagles can be beaten through the air (23^rd in DVOA) and are more middling against the run (16^th in DVOA). That difference shouldn’t be enough to tilt the Jets away from trying to run the ball and hope something breaks their way to keep them in the game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a moderate total of 45.5 which is being dragged down by the fact that the Jets don’t set up well to score points. The Eagles have been happy to win on the ground and grind down the clock in games they control, and that game flow is the most likely outcome. Expect Philly to have success offensively by running the ball and mixing in enough passing on key third downs, before slowing things down in the second half with a lead.

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Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• Monitor the health of both starting QBs and DeAndre Hopkins.
• David Montgomery is mispriced for his role.
• Darnell Mooney gets a boost if Dalton ends up starting.
• James Connor is mispriced for his role.
• DeAndre Hopkins is the cheapest he has been in a long time.
• Weather could impact this game.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The Cardinals have shown that they are a complete team the past few weeks going 2-1 in games without their franchise QB or stud WR.  Both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are tentatively expected to return this week and their availability will dictate the landscape of this game. Regardless of his offensive stars’ health, Kliff Kingsbury deserves a lot of credit for how good his defense has been this season. The Cardinals are a legitimate 9-2 and should be considered a serious Super Bowl contender. The Cards play fast (9^th situational neutral pace), but that number is misleading, as they play even faster in the first half (4^th in pace), before slowing way down (31^st in pace) in the second half. That reflects game flow, and the Cards will stay fast in games that are close.

This week, they draw a Bears team that has been middling against the run (19^th in DVOA) and the pass (17^th in DVOA). With no clear path of least resistance, the Cards should come out and play their normal brand of football designed to make defenses defend the entire feild. Assuming the return of their offensive centerpieces, the Cards should go back to functioning more as we saw in the first half of the season. Expect them to come out playing fast and looking to build a lead to force the conservative Bears hand.  

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Matt Nagy’s seat is on fire as the Bears were rumored to be ready to fire him if they lost on Thanksgiving Day. While that turned out to be “just a rumor,” you don’t hear “rumors” that Bill Belichick is going to lose his job. There is no question that Nagy is coaching for his career, as the 4-7 Bears are technically still in the playoff hunt with this year’s expanded field. Nagy appears set on starting Justin Fields when healthy, even though it’s clear to everyone watching that Andy Dalton is the superior passer at this point in their respective careers. Fields injury status is up in the air early in the week, and the way the Bears attack is largely dependent on who is under center.

Fields has been held under 30 attempts in every game but one this year (he had 32), whereas Dalton has been asked to throw 38/39 times in both of his full starts. This is clearly a game plan adjustment being made by the coaching staff to account for the differences in playstyles between QBs. Unfortunately for Nagy, his offense works much better with a capable pocket passer, and he hasn’t been able to adapt it to maximize Fields’ ability, or Fields just isn’t ready to play at the NFL level. If Fields starts, expect a conservative, slow-paced game plan that revolves around trying to limit passing. If Dalton starts, expect a more open game plan where the Bears aren’t as afraid to attack downfield.  The Cards D has been stingy against the pass (3^rd in DVOA) while being more middling against the run (15^th in DVOA), so no matter who starts at QB, expect the Bears to try and win on the ground first.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a middling total of 44.5, because even though Arizona’s starters are projected to return, there is little reason to think the Bears will be able to do enough offensively to push the Cards to a ceiling game. Throw in expected bad weather, and you have a game where the Cards are going to be looking to do just enough to win and escape bad conditions against a desperate Chicago team. The most likely game flow has the Cards pulling ahead early, before sitting back and letting the Bears offense make mistakes.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Darren Waller appears unlikely to play this week (currently listed as week-to-week with his knee injury), opening the door for Foster Moreau to operate as the de facto lead tight end; also keep an eye on the status of DeSean Jackson, who started the week with a limited showing before being downgraded to DNP on Thursday.
• For Washington, safety Landon Collins (foot), depth corner Benjamin St-Juste (concussion), center Tyler Larson (knee), guard Wes Schweitzer (ankle), and running back JD McKissic (concussion/neck) all missed Wednesday’s practice and should be considered questionable for Week 13.
• Washington’s heavy dime defensive packages and hefty reliance on zone principles have left significant gaps in coverage to the deep perimeter and shallow interior of the defense, which lines up rather well with the areas of the field the Raiders should be looking to attack here.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

I started my probe into this side of the game trying to dissect Washington’s defense, and more specifically, why they have struggled so much this year. Washington moved away from man-heavy coverage principles seen in 2020 to heavy zone utilization this year, primarily playing from 4-3-4, 4-2-5, and 5-2-4 defensive alignments (heavy dime utilization). The defense hasn’t allowed many yards after the catch (second-fewest in the league through 12 weeks) which lines up with what we should expect from a heavy-zone defense, but they have allowed the third most air yards (on league average pass attempts against, and only 11 games played) and the ninth-deepest average depth of target (8.4). There are consistent gaps in their defense arising from the ninth highest blitz rate but 12^th lowest hurry rate and 11^th lowest pressure rate. As in, they blitz a lot but don’t hit home at a high rate. 

On offense, Washington has been a more conservative unit than we thought coming into the season after the abrupt hip injury sustained by Ryan Fitzpatrick to start the year. Basically, they are highly reliant on opponent success as far as aggression goes. They are more comfortable adopting a conservative offensive approach built around the running backs and short passing game. Keep an eye on the status of JD McKissic heading into the weekend, who sustained a scary-looking head/neck injury, which was eventually labeled as “just” a concussion. His typical 40-60% snap rate would likely fall primarily onto Antonio Gibson’s shoulders, likely spelled sparingly by Jaret Patterson and whichever practice squad back they elect to call up. We’ve been waiting to see the increased pass game usage from Gibson all season, which finally came to fruition in Week 12. Better yet, half of his seven targets came through designed plays to him through the air, which means we can be fairly confident what we saw was not just a fluke. The pure rushing matchup should be considered a plus against a run-funnel defense, yielding a 4.28 net-adjusted line yards metric. Should McKissic return, we’d have to consider this backfield more of a true committee, likely sapping all appeal.

Taylor Heinicke’s 5.5 completed air yards per pass attempt ranks 26^th in the league and is a viable indicator of the conservative nature of this offense overall this season. Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas appear set to be the only true near every-down pass-catchers this week as the team continues to reintegrate Curtis Samuel into the offense. Expect McLaurin to be joined by DeAndre Carter on the perimeter, with Samuel eating into the snap rates of both Adam Humphries in the slot and Carter on the perimeter. Cam Sims should operate as the WR5 with the team appearing to almost give up on rookie Dyami Brown after the bye. The Raiders defense ranks middle of the pack in completion rate allowed but ranks sixth in the league in yards allowed per completion at just 9.5. When we put the two together, it becomes fairly evident that Washington is highly likely to maintain a conservative offensive approach for as long as they are allowed to do so.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

There are a few things to consider when we try and get through “how Las Vegas will try to win.” The glaring thing to consider is the high blitz rates from Washington and a tight end stable that runs routes at an extremely low rate due to the struggles of the offensive line in protection (second-lowest in the league behind only New England). Darren Waller has been in a route on only 64% of his snaps this season that came on pass plays, with TE2 Foster Moreau in a route on only 37% (!!!) of his snaps that came on pass plays. The second thing we need to consider is the already-low rush rates from the Raiders (seventh-highest overall pass rate on the season at 63%), which, when aligned with the pass-funnel nature of the Washington defense, should lead to a very bankable avenue of attack for the Raiders. Finally, the Raiders are a very “barbell” offense, scoring a massive 32 points per game in their six victories, and only 13 points per game in their five defeats. As such, keep an eye on expected ownership here, particularly with the pass game, as quarterback Derek Carr has surpassed 300 yards passing in each Raider win this season (and failed to do so in each Raider loss).

The Raiders average a middle-of-the-pack 63.5 offensive plays per game but the eighth-fewest rush attempts per game (23.6), primarily due to a largely ineffective run game. The Raiders rank 18^th in adjusted line yards, but they rank 26^th in running back yards per carry, 27^th in second-level yards, and 28^th in power success rate. The matchup with the Football Team should be considered one of the league’s most pass-funnel in nature (seventh in DVOA against the rush and 30^th against the pass), leading to a poor 4.06 net-adjusted line yards metric. Josh Jacobs has been operating in the prototypical “lead back” role, typically handling 60-65% of the offensive snaps en route to 16.3 running back opportunities per game over his nine healthy games. The pass game usage has also been a bit more bankable of late, with 4.6 targets per game over the previous five contests. Expect some combination of Kenyan Drake and Jalen Richard to fill change of pace and obvious pass down duties.

A large chunk of the ceiling from this pass offense hinges on the status of recent addition DeSean Jackson, who has upped his involvement each of the past three weeks (17%, 34%, and 48% snap rates). His downfield chops have been a welcomed sight for the Raiders after the loss of Dexmonitrix Velociraptor (yea, that guy). During the almost two full games played without Darren Waller this season, Hunter Renfrow has led the team in both targets and production, catching 15 of 17 targets for 192 yards and no scores. Against the heavy zone defense of the Football Team, look for Renfrow to once again be the preferred target here. Zay Jones and Bryan Edwards are two bodies on the field for most of the game, but that’s about all they’ve been over their careers thus far. I would tentatively expect DeSean Jackson’s snap rate to increase further if he’s able to suit up at the direct expense of these two perimeter “threats.” What I will say, though, is that both Edwards and Jones’ profiles lineup up well with what Washington has struggled with this season through the air.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

A large part of this game revolves around how successful the Raiders can be through the air, yielding a wide range of potential game flows. As in, since we can be fairly certain that the Raiders will primarily attack through the air here, and since Derek Carr ranks fourth in the league in total intended air yards, and since Washington allows 8.4 defensive aDOT at time of target, everything from the Raiders side of the ball lines up to create an environment that harbors deep passing. Deep passing can either generate splash plays that eat up chunk yardage all at once, or lead to incompletions and stalled drives. Since Washington largely relies on their opponents to dictate their level of aggression due to the team playing all season with a backup signal-caller, we have to approach this game through the lens of an extremely wide range of potential outcomes as far as overall game environment and game flow goes. 

The game flow that has the largest percentage change of transpiring, considering our exploration of this game, is for Washington to start with a conservative mindset and inflated rush rates, while the Raiders look to pick their spots through the deep passing and underneath passing games. The biggest holes in Washington’s heavy zone defense are the deep perimeter and shallow underneath, leading to DeSean Jackson (if healthy) and Hunter Renfrow as the two likeliest to benefit from Darren Waller’s absence the most.

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Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Jacksonville has not scored 20 points in a game on American soil since September.
• These are the two fastest paced offenses in the league in terms of seconds per play.
• The Jaguars are at a significant personnel disadvantage on both sides of the ball.
• The Rams are much more incentivized to be aggressive and push this game offensively than a team with their record would normally be in a matchup like this so late in the season.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Jacksonville is going to need to score points to have a chance in this game, something they’ve struggled with for the entire season. They’ve only scored 20 points once since September, and that was in their London game against the Dolphins. The Jaguars are going to have a lot of trouble handling the Rams defensive front, as the Rams boast PFF’s #1 graded unit in both rush defense and pass rush. The Jaguars have a decent offensive line, but this will be their toughest test of the season on all fronts — especially in a game where they are likely to be forced to be aggressive offensively.

The Rams don’t really have a “weakness” defensively, as many of their struggles recently have been caused by offensive turnovers and just playing very crisp, efficient offenses in the Packers and 49ers. The Jaguars don’t have an elite scheme or personnel, setting up a long day for them offensively. The Rams incredibly have six defensive players whose PFF grade is in the top-10 at their respective positions. If there was a spot for Jacksonville to attack, it would be the Rams cornerbacks not named Jalen Ramsey.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams are the most pass-heavy team in the league since Week 7, throwing at a situation-neutral rate of 68%. They are now facing the 32nd ranked DVOA pass defense in the league, who is traveling across the country. There was news prior to last week’s games that Matthew Stafford is dealing with a lot of injuries, but the Rams were still aggressive through the air, and this matchup calls for more of the same. The Rams have PFF’s #1 graded offensive line in terms of pass blocking, so they should have no issues giving Stafford a clean pocket and keeping him upright.

Given the Rams’ recent struggles and the fact that they are still finding their groove in a post-Robert Woods world, they should be very aggressive and pass-heavy early in this game. The Rams started the season 7-1 before losing their last three games by an average of almost 14 points per game. If ever there was a classic “get right” spot, this is it. The Rams need to get their swagger back to make a run down the stretch of the season and get some momentum heading into the playoffs. The urgency here will be very apparent. There is an obvious concern for the game script to get out of hand and the Rams to pack things in early, but there should be plenty of volume and efficiency through the passing game “on the way up.” The running game should also have success and be carried along for the ride due to how easily the Rams are likely to be able to move the ball. The Rams are likely to play with tempo in their home stadium against an inferior opponent as they look to right the ship.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Rams should have offensive success early and often in this game, while the Jaguars will likely struggle until the game is well in hand for Los Angeles. The Jaguars were able to pull an upset on the Bills in a similar spot a few weeks ago, but that game was in Jacksonville, and the issue the Bills had was their complete inability to run the ball, and the Jaguars sold out to stop the pass without having to pay for it. The Rams running scheme is one of the best in the league, however, and the Jaguars really won’t have that option in this game.

The Jaguars are a team that plays with the fastest pace in the league, and while that is influenced by their frequently negative game scripts, we should be expecting much of the same here. For two to three quarters, we should see very high play volume as the Rams love to play fast, especially at home, and the Jaguars won’t have much of a choice once they fall behind. If, somehow, the Jaguars score some points and/or get out to an early lead, that would only serve to push the Rams even more, and if Jacksonville tried to sit on the ball, it would just be a lot of “three and out” type of possessions.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Both of these teams are coming off dreadful offensive performances in Week 12.
• The Ravens have only scored over 20 points once in their last five games, but the Steelers have given up 41 points in each of the last two weeks.
• Pittsburgh’s man-heavy scheme opens them up to quarterbacks scrambling, but their familiarity with a division rival may alter their strategy.
• Pittsburgh’s defensive approach will have a big impact on how this game is likely to play out.

How BALTIMORE Will Try To Win ::

Baltimore’s pass rate this year has risen substantially from past seasons, even though it is still slightly below league average. The Ravens’ litany of injuries to their running backs and best receiving corps of Lamar Jackson’s career likely has a lot to do with this. Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled in recent weeks, but their familiarity with Baltimore’s tendencies and philosophy should help them put up more of a fight this week.

Pittsburgh has given up running success to Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in recent weeks, and their blitz/man-heavy scheme is usually very prone to struggling with those types of players. However, in Week 1, the Steelers were able to upset the Bills by changing their approach and playing more zone coverage, and containing Josh Allen in the pocket. Lamar struggled last week to the tune of four interceptions against a zone-heavy Cleveland team that was able to consistently apply pressure to him. I would expect Baltimore to have a very balanced approach this week and to keep things conservative when throwing to avoid another turnover-prone performance from Lamar. They really don’t have a lot to be afraid of from the Steelers’ offense, and turnovers are probably the only way Pittsburgh can control and/or win this game, which makes it unlikely the Ravens come out firing and trying to attack aggressively against a defense that has appeared beatable lately.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens’ pass defense has been shaky at times this season, but their biggest issues have come against more efficient and explosive offenses. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, they don’t fit that description. Ben Roethlisberger appears to be truly on his last leg, and he’s dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder/pec. The Steelers are unlikely to be able to attack downfield, and if they do, the Ravens’ pass defense can be an opportunistic bunch against weak-armed quarterbacks.

Baltimore’s run defense is one of the best in the league, and the Steelers have been unable to run with any consistency or efficiency all year, which also makes it very unlikely that Pittsburgh would be able to simply put the ball in Najee Harris’ belly and run their way to a victory.

The combination of the lack of an explosive pass game and an inefficient running game leaves the Steelers to use a familiar attack of high volume short-area passing, hoping to get their playmakers in space to make plays after the catch. Unfortunately, this strategy will be pretty clear to the Ravens as well, and they should be prepared for it — especially against a familiar division rival. This strategy does have some potential upside, however, as the Ravens had four of their top five cornerbacks limited or absent from Wednesday’s practice. If the Ravens’ secondary is thinned out, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool could be able to break some tackles and make some backups look silly after the catch.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game’s projected total paints a pretty accurate picture of the likeliest game flow here. Baltimore is the team most likely to take the lead and/or make explosive plays, but if they generate a lead, that would just make offense even more difficult for a one-dimensional Steelers offense while allowing Baltimore to lean extremely run-heavy and simply try to get out quickly with a victory. The Steelers lack the firepower to take a lead, which is the scenario that would likely be necessary for the game flow to take off by forcing Baltimore to be more aggressive with their weapons and play calling. A low-scoring game where the Steelers stay somewhat competitive but never really threaten to win is the most likely scenario, with Baltimore’s offense protecting the ball throughout the game and their defense teeing off on Ben in the 4th quarter when he’s forced to get more aggressive.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::