Game Overview ::
By mjohnson86 >>
- Both of these teams are coming off dreadful offensive performances in Week 12.
- The Ravens have only scored over 20 points once in their last five games, but the Steelers have given up 41 points in each of the last two weeks.
- Pittsburgh’s man-heavy scheme opens them up to quarterbacks scrambling, but their familiarity with a division rival may alter their strategy.
- Pittsburgh’s defensive approach will have a big impact on how this game is likely to play out.
How BALTIMORE Will Try To Win ::
Baltimore’s pass rate this year has risen substantially from past seasons, even though it is still slightly below league average. The Ravens’ litany of injuries to their running backs and best receiving corps of Lamar Jackson’s career likely has a lot to do with this. Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled in recent weeks, but their familiarity with Baltimore’s tendencies and philosophy should help them put up more of a fight this week.
Pittsburgh has given up running success to Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in recent weeks, and their blitz/man-heavy scheme is usually very prone to struggling with those types of players. However, in Week 1, the Steelers were able to upset the Bills by changing their approach and playing more zone coverage, and containing Josh Allen in the pocket. Lamar struggled last week to the tune of four interceptions against a zone-heavy Cleveland team that was able to consistently apply pressure to him. I would expect Baltimore to have a very balanced approach this week and to keep things conservative when throwing to avoid another turnover-prone performance from Lamar. They really don’t have a lot to be afraid of from the Steelers’ offense, and turnovers are probably the only way Pittsburgh can control and/or win this game, which makes it unlikely the Ravens come out firing and trying to attack aggressively against a defense that has appeared beatable lately.
How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
The Ravens’ pass defense has been shaky at times this season, but their biggest issues have come against more efficient and explosive offenses. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, they don’t fit that description. Ben Roethlisberger appears to be truly on his last leg, and he’s dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder/pec. The Steelers are unlikely to be able to attack downfield, and if they do, the Ravens’ pass defense can be an opportunistic bunch against weak-armed quarterbacks.
Baltimore’s run defense is one of the best in the league, and the Steelers have been unable to run with any consistency or efficiency all year, which also makes it very unlikely that Pittsburgh would be able to simply put the ball in Najee Harris’ belly and run their way to a victory.
The combination of the lack of an explosive pass game and an inefficient running game leaves the Steelers to use a familiar attack of high volume short-area passing, hoping to get their playmakers in space to make plays after the catch. Unfortunately, this strategy will be pretty clear to the Ravens as well, and they should be prepared for it — especially against a familiar division rival. This strategy does have some potential upside, however, as the Ravens had four of their top five cornerbacks limited or absent from Wednesday’s practice. If the Ravens’ secondary is thinned out, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool could be able to break some tackles and make some backups look silly after the catch.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
This game’s projected total paints a pretty accurate picture of the likeliest game flow here. Baltimore is the team most likely to take the lead and/or make explosive plays, but if they generate a lead, that would just make offense even more difficult for a one-dimensional Steelers offense while allowing Baltimore to lean extremely run-heavy and simply try to get out quickly with a victory. The Steelers lack the firepower to take a lead, which is the scenario that would likely be necessary for the game flow to take off by forcing Baltimore to be more aggressive with their weapons and play calling. A low-scoring game where the Steelers stay somewhat competitive but never really threaten to win is the most likely scenario, with Baltimore’s offense protecting the ball throughout the game and their defense teeing off on Ben in the 4th quarter when he’s forced to get more aggressive.
BLACK FRIDAY BONUS!
*extended through the END of Week 13!
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By Alex88 >>
- 44 total is tied for the second lowest in Week 13
- PIT’s implied total of 19.75 is tied for the seventh lowest
- Per numberFire, BAL ranks 26th in adjusted seconds per play (31) and 30th in adjusted pass rate (51.3%)
- PIT ranks 30th in adjusted seconds per play (31.6) and eighth in adjusted pass rate (61.6%)
- Per Lineups.com, each defense ranks in the top six at lowest red zone TD percentage allowed (BAL is first with 42.9% and PIT is sixth with 51.4%)
- Ranks 22nd in PFF passing grade
- Averaging career highs in completions (21.9), attempts (34.1), passing yards (261.2), and rushing attempts (12.3)
- Also averaging a career high in INT % (3.5%) and a career low in rushing TDs (0.2)
- 24.8 DK ppg ranks third
- PIT ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18.9)
- Only three opposing QBs have scored 20+ pts: Aaron Rodgers 24.12 // Derek Carr 27.18 // Justin Herbert 38.28
BAL Passing Attack
- Third lowest usage of 11 personnel (36%, average is 59%), second highest usage of 21 personnel (29%, average is 7%), and highest usage of 22 personnel (19%, average is 3%)
- Snap share: Mark Andrews 72.2% // Marquise Brown 68.3% // Rashod Bateman 60.8% // Devin Duvernay 53.5% // Sammy Watkins 44.1%
- Target share: Brown 23.7% // Andrews 22.9% // Watkins 10.3% // Bateman 9.8% // Duvernay 8.5%
- Among all WRs, Brown ranks 24th in air yard market share, 12th in target share, and 17th in WOPR
- Brown ranks seventh in DK ppg (18.2)
- Bateman has out targeted Watkins the past three weeks (the only times they’ve played together) for a total of 18-8
- He’s yet to hit 15 DK pts
- Watkins only saw a heavy snap share in Week 11 with Brown absent
- He’s a part time WR on the team that passes at the third lowest adjusted rate
- Duvernay hasn’t hit double digits since Week 3
- PIT ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (38.9)
- Notable opposing WR scores: Darnell Mooney 20.6 // Mike Williams 20.7 // Ja’Marr Chase 22.5 // Keenan Allen 23.2 // Randall Cobb 23.9 // He Who Must Not Be Named 25.5 // Tee Higgins 26.4 // Courtland Sutton 28
- Andrews ranks second in DK ppg (16)
- Among all TEs, he ranks second in air yard market share, first in target share, and first in WOPR
- PIT ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to TEs (10.6)
- Only three TEs have scored double digits vs. PIT: Foster Moreau 11.4 // Darren Waller 11.5 // Cole Kmet 14.7
- Without Latavius Murray in Weeks 9 & 10, Devonta Freeman dominated snaps
- In Weeks 11 & 12, he led Murray 47-30 & 40-36
- In those two weeks, he leads Murray in targets 7-1 and in touches 39-20
- Freeman’s 22 touches in Week 11 were the most by a BAL RB all season, by far
- On the season, Freeman’s averaging 9.3 touches to Murray’s 10.4
- There have only been three 15+ scores by BAL RBs
- Two by Freeman in the last month and one by Ty’Son Williams in Week 1
- PIT ranks 20th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (25)
- Only four opposing RBs have scored 15+ DK pts vs. PIT: D’Andre Swift 19.5 // Alex Collins 19.8 // Joe Mixon 35.3 // Austin Ekeler 41.5
- Ranks 36th in PFF passing grade
- Averaging 25 completions on 38 attempts, for 252 yards, 1.4 TDs, and 0.6 INTs
- Just 15.05 DK ppg
- Cracked 20+ DK pts once, in Week 11 (22.92)
- BAL ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20.2)
- Notable opposing QB scores: Kirk Cousins 21.58 // Carson Wentz 26.58 // Derek Carr 28 // Patrick Mahomes 28.02 // Joe Burrow 30.64
PIT Passing Attack
- Third highest usage of 11 personnel at 74% (league average is 59%)
- Snap share: Diontae Johnson 79.9% // Chase Claypool 67.1% // Pat Freiermuth 59.1% // James Washington 49.1% // Ray-Ray McCloud 33.4%
- Target share: Johnson 25.1% // Claypool 15.9% // Freiermuth 12.2% // Washington 6.7% // McCloud 5.5%
- Among all WRs, Johnson ranks 14th in air yard market share, fourth in target share, and eighth in WOPR
- Johnson’s target counts in the past five weeks: 13 // 6 // 13 // 13 // 14
- His 18.1 DK ppg ranks ninth
- Claypool had just five targets each in Weeks 8 & 9, then missed Week 10, but in the last two weeks he saw 9 & 8 targets
- He has still yet to score 20 pts this season
- Among all WRs, he ranks 17th in air yard market share and 25th in WOPR
- Washington has only hit double digits once (10.9)
- McCloud is averaging just 4.49 DK ppg, but did hit 15.3 in Week 10
- BAL ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (37)
- Notable opposing WR scores: Michael Pittman 20.9 // Marquise Goodwin 23.4 // Darnell Mooney 26.1 // Ja’Marr Chase 37.1
- Since the Week 7 bye, Freiermuth has seen 7, 6, 9, 7, and 4 targets
- He’s averaging 9.8 DK ppg on the season
- DK log since the bye: 14.4 // 21.3 // 7.1 // 11.1 // 14
- BAL ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (17.8)
- Notable opposing TE scores: Jared Cook 12.5 // David Njoku 12.5 // Noah Fant 16.6 // CJ Uzomah 24.1 // Travis Kelce 26.9 // Darren Waller 29.5
- Still leads RBs league-wide in snap share (82.5%)
- Ranks second in touches per game (22.5)
- Third in target share (15.4%)
- But in total red zone touches, he ranks 18th
- His 19 DK ppg ranks eighth
- BAL ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.8)
- Notable opposing RB scores: D’Andre Swift 23.7 // Jonathan Taylor 34.9