Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- Monitor the health of both starting QBs and DeAndre Hopkins.
- David Montgomery is mispriced for his role.
- Darnell Mooney gets a boost if Dalton ends up starting.
- James Connor is mispriced for his role.
- DeAndre Hopkins is the cheapest he has been in a long time.
- Weather could impact this game.
How arizona Will Try To Win ::
The Cardinals have shown that they are a complete team the past few weeks going 2-1 in games without their franchise QB or stud WR. Both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are tentatively expected to return this week and their availability will dictate the landscape of this game. Regardless of his offensive stars’ health, Kliff Kingsbury deserves a lot of credit for how good his defense has been this season. The Cardinals are a legitimate 9-2 and should be considered a serious Super Bowl contender. The Cards play fast (9th situational neutral pace), but that number is misleading, as they play even faster in the first half (4th in pace), before slowing way down (31st in pace) in the second half. That reflects game flow, and the Cards will stay fast in games that are close.
This week, they draw a Bears team that has been middling against the run (19th in DVOA) and the pass (17th in DVOA). With no clear path of least resistance, the Cards should come out and play their normal brand of football designed to make defenses defend the entire feild. Assuming the return of their offensive centerpieces, the Cards should go back to functioning more as we saw in the first half of the season. Expect them to come out playing fast and looking to build a lead to force the conservative Bears hand.
How chicago Will Try To Win ::
Matt Nagy’s seat is on fire as the Bears were rumored to be ready to fire him if they lost on Thanksgiving Day. While that turned out to be “just a rumor,” you don’t hear “rumors” that Bill Belichick is going to lose his job. There is no question that Nagy is coaching for his career, as the 4-7 Bears are technically still in the playoff hunt with this year’s expanded field. Nagy appears set on starting Justin Fields when healthy, even though it’s clear to everyone watching that Andy Dalton is the superior passer at this point in their respective careers. Fields injury status is up in the air early in the week, and the way the Bears attack is largely dependent on who is under center.
Fields has been held under 30 attempts in every game but one this year (he had 32), whereas Dalton has been asked to throw 38/39 times in both of his full starts. This is clearly a game plan adjustment being made by the coaching staff to account for the differences in playstyles between QBs. Unfortunately for Nagy, his offense works much better with a capable pocket passer, and he hasn’t been able to adapt it to maximize Fields’ ability, or Fields just isn’t ready to play at the NFL level. If Fields starts, expect a conservative, slow-paced game plan that revolves around trying to limit passing. If Dalton starts, expect a more open game plan where the Bears aren’t as afraid to attack downfield. The Cards D has been stingy against the pass (3rd in DVOA) while being more middling against the run (15th in DVOA), so no matter who starts at QB, expect the Bears to try and win on the ground first.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
This game has a middling total of 44.5, because even though Arizona’s starters are projected to return, there is little reason to think the Bears will be able to do enough offensively to push the Cards to a ceiling game. Throw in expected bad weather, and you have a game where the Cards are going to be looking to do just enough to win and escape bad conditions against a desperate Chicago team. The most likely game flow has the Cards pulling ahead early, before sitting back and letting the Bears offense make mistakes.
BLACK FRIDAY BONUS!
*extended through the END of Week 13!
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By Dwprix >>
- Tied for the sixth highest total (46)
- The total has went up 1.5 pts
- ARZ opened 1.5 pts favorites and is now favored by 8
- ARZ is 8-3 ATS // CHI is 4-7 ATS
- CHI wins: vs CIN, vs DET, @ LV, @ DET
- ARZ losses: vs GB, vs CAR
- ARZ is 6-0 on the road // CHI is 2-3 at home
- CHI has lost 5 of their last 6
- ARZ lost 2 of 4 heading into their bye
- They were w/o Murray & Hopkins in their last 3 but still went 2-1
- Both should be back this week
- ARZ ranks 5th in ppg (28.2) // CHI ranks 29th (16.3)
- Murray has never played CHI
- In eight games, Murray has 30+ in two which came in Weeks 1 & 2
- DK pts: (11.1, 22.4, 25.8, 13.7, 22.6, 22.5, 38.1, 34.6)
- Murray ($7.5k) hasn’t been cheaper all season
- Pass TDs: (0, 3, 4, 1, 2, 0, 3, 4)
- Murray rush avg: 18.4 yds/g // 2020 rush avg: 51.2
- Murray has posted two 300+ pass yd games (Weeks 2 & 3)
- CHI allows the 8th least DK pts/g to QBs (18.7)
- In 8 games, Hopkins has yet to score 30+
- He’s also w/o 10+ tgts in a game
- Hopkins DK pts: (8.6, 18.3, 20.5, 20.7, 10.7, 5.1, 15.4, 26.3)
- $6.2k is the cheapest he’s been since Week 11 of the 2017 season
- In 8 games, he has 7 TDS
- Christian Kirk ($5.6k) is at the upper end of his season long price range ($4.5k-$5.7k)
- AJ Green has no games with 6 or more catches
- Rondale Moore is the only ARZ receiver to get 10+ tgts which came last week (11)
- CHI allows 10th most DK pts to WRs (37.9)
- Chase Edmonds (IR) will miss his 3rd straight game
- James Conner rush atts last 3: (21, 10, 21) // Eno Benjamin: (6, 6, 9)
- The 20+ atts for Conner were in wins & the 10 atts in a loss
- Conner tgts last 3: (6, 4, 5) // Benjamin: (1, 1, 0)
- James Conner has 3 games w/o a TD & 2 of them were the first 2 weeks of the season
- Conner TDs: (1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 0, 1, 2, 2, 0, 0)
- Price last two weeks: ($6.1k, $6.3k) // This week: $5.9k
- CHI allows .8 rush TDs/g & the 15th least DK pts/g to RBs (22.7)
- Tgts w/ ARZ: (9, 6, 5, 4, 5)
- Last week vs SEA he had season highs in TDs (2), yds (88), tgts (9), & rec (8)
- $5.4k is a season high & $600 more than his previous season high last week
- Previous season long range ($3.4k-$4.8k)
- CHI allows the 8th least DK pts to TEs/g (9.4)
- Andy Dalton took first team reps Wed
- Justin Fields returned to a limited practice Wed
- Dalton last week: (24:39:317 1 TD, 1 INT, 19.8 DK pts)
- Fields last 2 full games were his best DK games @ PIT (19.1 pts) // vs SF (29.3 pts)
- He had 103 rush yds vs SF (SF allows the highest QB rush yds/g, 27.1/g)
- Only Jared Goff has scored more QB pts vs SF (Week 1-32.92)
- ARZ allows the 3rd least DK pts/g to QBs (16.0)
- Allen Robinson’s missed the last 2 games (hamstring) & could be out again
- Marquise Goodwin (Q) left early last week & did not practise Wed
- WR snaps last week of 70 (no Robinson, Goodwin early departure): Mooney-(61) // Damiere Byrd (53) // Jakeem Grant-(19) // Isaiah Coulter-(14)
- Mooney last 2: (5:123, 8 tgts, 20.5 DK pts) // (5:121:1 TD, 16 tgts, 26.1 DK pts)
- Byrd saw a season high 5 tgts last week (4:42)
- His price ($5.6k) came down $100 from his season high last week
- ARZ allows the 8th least DK pts/g to WRs (37.9)
- Kole Kmet also missed Wed practice (groin)
- Last week: (8:65, 11 tgts)
- $3.6k is down $100 from his season high last week
- Tgts last 5: (11, 2, 8, 6, 6)
- Jimmy Graham played 14 snaps & ran 4 routes last week
- Of course he scored on 4 routes run (2:34:1 TD, 3 tgts)
- ARZ allows the least DK pts to TEs (7.9)
- Rush atts: (17, 14, 13, 23, 10, 20, 16)
- Tgts: (3, 1, 2, 0, 4, 4, 1)
- DK pts: (10.4, 7.7, 10.0, 25.6, 7.5, 10.9, 21.8)
- $5.6k is $100 more than his season low
- Season long price range: $5.5k-$6.1k
- Montgomery hasn’t scored in his last 3 games (CHI has put up 16, 13, & 27 pts in those games)
- ARZ allows the 13th least DK pts/g to RBs (22.6), ranks 16th in rush yds allowed/g (113.8), & is T-1st in most rush TDs allowed/g (1.5)