Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• Monitor the health of both starting QBs and DeAndre Hopkins.
• David Montgomery is mispriced for his role.
• Darnell Mooney gets a boost if Dalton ends up starting.
• James Connor is mispriced for his role.
• DeAndre Hopkins is the cheapest he has been in a long time.
• Weather could impact this game.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The Cardinals have shown that they are a complete team the past few weeks going 2-1 in games without their franchise QB or stud WR.  Both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are tentatively expected to return this week and their availability will dictate the landscape of this game. Regardless of his offensive stars’ health, Kliff Kingsbury deserves a lot of credit for how good his defense has been this season. The Cardinals are a legitimate 9-2 and should be considered a serious Super Bowl contender. The Cards play fast (9^th situational neutral pace), but that number is misleading, as they play even faster in the first half (4^th in pace), before slowing way down (31^st in pace) in the second half. That reflects game flow, and the Cards will stay fast in games that are close.

This week, they draw a Bears team that has been middling against the run (19^th in DVOA) and the pass (17^th in DVOA). With no clear path of least resistance, the Cards should come out and play their normal brand of football designed to make defenses defend the entire feild. Assuming the return of their offensive centerpieces, the Cards should go back to functioning more as we saw in the first half of the season. Expect them to come out playing fast and looking to build a lead to force the conservative Bears hand.  

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Matt Nagy’s seat is on fire as the Bears were rumored to be ready to fire him if they lost on Thanksgiving Day. While that turned out to be “just a rumor,” you don’t hear “rumors” that Bill Belichick is going to lose his job. There is no question that Nagy is coaching for his career, as the 4-7 Bears are technically still in the playoff hunt with this year’s expanded field. Nagy appears set on starting Justin Fields when healthy, even though it’s clear to everyone watching that Andy Dalton is the superior passer at this point in their respective careers. Fields injury status is up in the air early in the week, and the way the Bears attack is largely dependent on who is under center.

Fields has been held under 30 attempts in every game but one this year (he had 32), whereas Dalton has been asked to throw 38/39 times in both of his full starts. This is clearly a game plan adjustment being made by the coaching staff to account for the differences in playstyles between QBs. Unfortunately for Nagy, his offense works much better with a capable pocket passer, and he hasn’t been able to adapt it to maximize Fields’ ability, or Fields just isn’t ready to play at the NFL level. If Fields starts, expect a conservative, slow-paced game plan that revolves around trying to limit passing. If Dalton starts, expect a more open game plan where the Bears aren’t as afraid to attack downfield.  The Cards D has been stingy against the pass (3^rd in DVOA) while being more middling against the run (15^th in DVOA), so no matter who starts at QB, expect the Bears to try and win on the ground first.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a middling total of 44.5, because even though Arizona’s starters are projected to return, there is little reason to think the Bears will be able to do enough offensively to push the Cards to a ceiling game. Throw in expected bad weather, and you have a game where the Cards are going to be looking to do just enough to win and escape bad conditions against a desperate Chicago team. The most likely game flow has the Cards pulling ahead early, before sitting back and letting the Bears offense make mistakes.

---

BLACK FRIDAY BONUS!

Promo Code:

OWSBlackFriday

Marketplace || Inner Circle Rest-of-Season

50% Off!!!!

*extended through the END of Week 13!

---

DFS+ Interpretation ::