Kickoff Sunday, Dec 5th 4:05pm Eastern

WFT (
23.25) at

Raiders (
24.25)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
6th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
13th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
30th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
21st DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
16th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
27th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
22nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/21st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Darren Waller appears unlikely to play this week (currently listed as week-to-week with his knee injury), opening the door for Foster Moreau to operate as the de facto lead tight end; also keep an eye on the status of DeSean Jackson, who started the week with a limited showing before being downgraded to DNP on Thursday.
  • For Washington, safety Landon Collins (foot), depth corner Benjamin St-Juste (concussion), center Tyler Larson (knee), guard Wes Schweitzer (ankle), and running back JD McKissic (concussion/neck) all missed Wednesday’s practice and should be considered questionable for Week 13.
  • Washington’s heavy dime defensive packages and hefty reliance on zone principles have left significant gaps in coverage to the deep perimeter and shallow interior of the defense, which lines up rather well with the areas of the field the Raiders should be looking to attack here.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

I started my probe into this side of the game trying to dissect Washington’s defense, and more specifically, why they have struggled so much this year. Washington moved away from man-heavy coverage principles seen in 2020 to heavy zone utilization this year, primarily playing from 4-3-4, 4-2-5, and 5-2-4 defensive alignments (heavy dime utilization). The defense hasn’t allowed many yards after the catch (second-fewest in the league through 12 weeks) which lines up with what we should expect from a heavy-zone defense, but they have allowed the third most air yards (on league average pass attempts against, and only 11 games played) and the ninth-deepest average depth of target (8.4). There are consistent gaps in their defense arising from the ninth highest blitz rate but 12th lowest hurry rate and 11th lowest pressure rate. As in, they blitz a lot but don’t hit home at a high rate. 

On offense, Washington has been a more conservative unit than we thought coming into the season after the abrupt hip injury sustained by Ryan Fitzpatrick to start the year. Basically, they are highly reliant on opponent success as far as aggression goes. They are more comfortable adopting a conservative offensive approach built around the running backs and short passing game. Keep an eye on the status of JD McKissic heading into the weekend, who sustained a scary-looking head/neck injury, which was eventually labeled as “just” a concussion. His typical 40-60% snap rate would likely fall primarily onto Antonio Gibson’s shoulders, likely spelled sparingly by Jaret Patterson and whichever practice squad back they elect to call up. We’ve been waiting to see the increased pass game usage from Gibson all season, which finally came to fruition in Week 12. Better yet, half of his seven targets came through designed plays to him through the air, which means we can be fairly confident what we saw was not just a fluke. The pure rushing matchup should be considered a plus against a run-funnel defense, yielding a 4.28 net-adjusted line yards metric. Should McKissic return, we’d have to consider this backfield more of a true committee, likely sapping all appeal.

Taylor Heinicke’s 5.5 completed air yards per pass attempt ranks 26th in the league and is a viable indicator of the conservative nature of this offense overall this season. Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas appear set to be the only true near every-down pass-catchers this week as the team continues to reintegrate Curtis Samuel into the offense. Expect McLaurin to be joined by DeAndre Carter on the perimeter, with Samuel eating into the snap rates of both Adam Humphries in the slot and Carter on the perimeter. Cam Sims should operate as the WR5 with the team appearing to almost give up on rookie Dyami Brown after the bye. The Raiders defense ranks middle of the pack in completion rate allowed but ranks sixth in the league in yards allowed per completion at just 9.5. When we put the two together, it becomes fairly evident that Washington is highly likely to maintain a conservative offensive approach for as long as they are allowed to do so.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

There are a few things to consider when we try and get through “how Las Vegas will try to win.” The glaring thing to consider is the high blitz rates from Washington and a tight end stable that runs routes at an extremely low rate due to the struggles of the offensive line in protection (second-lowest in the league behind only New England). Darren Waller has been in a route on only 64% of his snaps this season that came on pass plays, with TE2 Foster Moreau in a route on only 37% (!!!) of his snaps that came on pass plays. The second thing we need to consider is the already-low rush rates from the Raiders (seventh-highest overall pass rate on the season at 63%), which, when aligned with the pass-funnel nature of the Washington defense, should lead to a very bankable avenue of attack for the Raiders. Finally, the Raiders are a very “barbell” offense, scoring a massive 32 points per game in their six victories, and only 13 points per game in their five defeats. As such, keep an eye on expected ownership here, particularly with the pass game, as quarterback Derek Carr has surpassed 300 yards passing in each Raider win this season (and failed to do so in each Raider loss).

The Raiders average a middle-of-the-pack 63.5 offensive plays per game but the eighth-fewest rush attempts per game (23.6), primarily due to a largely ineffective run game. The Raiders rank 18th in adjusted line yards, but they rank 26th in running back yards per carry, 27th in second-level yards, and 28th in power success rate. The matchup with the Football Team should be considered one of the league’s most pass-funnel in nature (seventh in DVOA against the rush and 30th against the pass), leading to a poor 4.06 net-adjusted line yards metric. Josh Jacobs has been operating in the prototypical “lead back” role, typically handling 60-65% of the offensive snaps en route to 16.3 running back opportunities per game over his nine healthy games. The pass game usage has also been a bit more bankable of late, with 4.6 targets per game over the previous five contests. Expect some combination of Kenyan Drake and Jalen Richard to fill change of pace and obvious pass down duties.

A large chunk of the ceiling from this pass offense hinges on the status of recent addition DeSean Jackson, who has upped his involvement each of the past three weeks (17%, 34%, and 48% snap rates). His downfield chops have been a welcomed sight for the Raiders after the loss of Dexmonitrix Velociraptor (yea, that guy). During the almost two full games played without Darren Waller this season, Hunter Renfrow has led the team in both targets and production, catching 15 of 17 targets for 192 yards and no scores. Against the heavy zone defense of the Football Team, look for Renfrow to once again be the preferred target here. Zay Jones and Bryan Edwards are two bodies on the field for most of the game, but that’s about all they’ve been over their careers thus far. I would tentatively expect DeSean Jackson’s snap rate to increase further if he’s able to suit up at the direct expense of these two perimeter “threats.” What I will say, though, is that both Edwards and Jones’ profiles lineup up well with what Washington has struggled with this season through the air.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

A large part of this game revolves around how successful the Raiders can be through the air, yielding a wide range of potential game flows. As in, since we can be fairly certain that the Raiders will primarily attack through the air here, and since Derek Carr ranks fourth in the league in total intended air yards, and since Washington allows 8.4 defensive aDOT at time of target, everything from the Raiders side of the ball lines up to create an environment that harbors deep passing. Deep passing can either generate splash plays that eat up chunk yardage all at once, or lead to incompletions and stalled drives. Since Washington largely relies on their opponents to dictate their level of aggression due to the team playing all season with a backup signal-caller, we have to approach this game through the lens of an extremely wide range of potential outcomes as far as overall game environment and game flow goes. 

The game flow that has the largest percentage change of transpiring, considering our exploration of this game, is for Washington to start with a conservative mindset and inflated rush rates, while the Raiders look to pick their spots through the deep passing and underneath passing games. The biggest holes in Washington’s heavy zone defense are the deep perimeter and shallow underneath, leading to DeSean Jackson (if healthy) and Hunter Renfrow as the two likeliest to benefit from Darren Waller’s absence the most.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • 49.5 Vegas total is the third highest in Week 13
  • Per numberFire, WAS ranks 10th in adjusted seconds per play (29.1) and 22nd in adjusted pass rate (55.5%)
  • LV ranks 16th in adjusted seconds per play (29.3) and sixth in adjusted pass rate (63%)
  • Each defense ranks in the bottom four in points allowed per game (WAS at 26.7 and LV at 26.8)
  • Per Lineups.com, each offense ranks in the bottom five in red zone TD percentage (WAS at 46.9% and LV at 50%)
  • LV’s defense is the worst in red zone TD percentage allowed (75.9%)

Taylor Heinicke

  • Ranks 29th in PFF passing grade
  • Averaging 22 completions on 33 attempts, for 238 yards, 1.45 TDs, and 0.9 INTs
  • Averaging 4.5 rushes for 25.4 yards
  • Scored 20+ DK pts in half of his starts this season
  • LV ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20.2)
  • Seven QBs have scored 20+ vs. LV

WAS Passing Attack

  • Second highest usage of 11 personnel (77%, average is 59%)
  • Snap share: Terry McLaurin 93.6% // Logan Thomas 74.9% // Adam Humphries 60.5% // DeAndre Carter 41.9%
  • Target share: McLaurin 29.3% // Humphries 10.2% // Carter 9.3% // Thomas 6%
  • Among all WRs, McLaurin ranks first in air yard market share, ninth in target share, and second in WOPR
  • His 17.6 DK ppg ranks 13th
  • Humphries hasn’t had five targets in a game since Week 5 (the time he hit double digit pts)
  • Carter’s DK log in the last four games: 14.1 // 15 // 9.9 // 8.6
  • Curtis Samuel returned last week in limited form, just 20 snaps and 1 target
  • LV ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to WRs (33.2)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Cedrick Wilson 20.4 // Diontae Johnson 22.5 // Courtland Sutton 23.4 // Tyreek Hill 27.5
  • Thomas returned to a full time role in Week 12, and earned six targets
  • Among all TEs, Thomas ranks ninth in air yard market share, 12th in target share, and 10th in WOPR
  • LV ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to TEs (18.7)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Dallas Goedert 12 // Evan Engram 12.8 // Dalton Schultz 15.6 // Mike Gesicki 18.6 // Jared Cook 19 // Travis Kelce 22.9 // Noah Fant 24.7

WAS RBs

  • Antonio Gibson had been sharing the backfield with JD McKissic, 52% snap rate to 46.2%
  • McKissic left the game early in Week 12 and is likely to miss Week 13
  • Gibson saw his highest target count (7) in Week 12, while McKissic had five targets himself before exiting
  • Over the last three weeks, Gibson has had 26, 19, and 36 touches
  • His 36 touches are tied with D’Andre Swift (Week 10) for the second highest, single game workload this season (behind only Derrick Henry’s 41 in Week 2)
  • His 26.6 DK pts in Week 12 were a season high (and the second highest mark of his career)
  • He hit that mark without finding the end zone
  • LV ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (28.5)
  • Only three opposing RBs have scored 20+ pts vs. LV, but all three eclipsed 25: Joe Mixon 27.3 // Darrel Williams 32.4 // Austin Ekeler 32.5
  • All three scored TDs: Mixon 2 rushing // Williams 1 receiving // Ekeler 1 each

Derek Carr

  • Ranks ninth in PFF passing grade
  • Fourth in total passing attempts
  • Averaging a significant career high in passing yards per game at 310.4 (previous best was 262.5)
  • Without accounting for TDs or turnovers, that’s a 15 point DK floor
  • Only scored below that floor three times this season
  • 19.9 DK ppg ranks 12th
  • WAS ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (25)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Aaron Rodgers 24.66 // Cam Newton 26.16 // Jameis Winston 27.76 // Patrick Mahomes 27.98 // Matt Ryan 29.02 // Daniel Jones 29.46 // Josh Allen 40.22

LV Passing Attack

  • Snap totals since Week 9 (post-bye and post-He Who Must Not Be Named): Bryan Edwards 209 // Zay Jones 206 // Hunter Renfrow 182 // Darren Waller 175 // Foster Moreau 137 // DeSean Jackson 67
  • Target totals for those same weeks: Waller 31 // Renfrow 31 // Jones 16 // Edwards 9 // Moreau 7 // Jackson 5
  • Renfrow has seen 9, 9, 4, and 9 targets the past four weeks
  • He’s averaging 14.32 DK ppg
  • His 24.6 DK pts in Week 12 were his highest total in nearly two full years
  • Edwards’s DK log the past four weeks: 8.7 // 13.3 // 17.8 // 2.2
  • Jones’s 11.3 pts in Week 12 were the only time all season he has hit double digits without a TD
  • Jackson saw his highest snap share as a Raider (nearly 50%) and scored 22.2 pts in Week 12
  • WAS ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (40.8)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Cole Beasley 20.8 // Keenan Allen 22 // Mike Williams 22.2 // Tyreek Hill 22.6 // Marquez Callaway 24.5 // Emmanuel Sanders 26.4
  • Waller hurt his knee and is doubtful to play in Week 13
  • In Week 7, the last time Waller missed, Moreau played 100% of the snaps, caught all six of his targets for 60 yards, and a score
  • WAS ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (13)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Jared Cook 10.6 // Gerald Everett 14.7 // Dawson Knox 14.9 // Robert Tonyan 16.3 // Travis Kelce 17.9

LV RBs

  • Snap share: Josh Jacobs 46.1% // Kenyan Drake 37%
  • Target share: Drake 9.2% // Jacobs 8.7%
  • Touches per game: Jacobs 15.7 // Drake 8.3
  • Jacobs cracked 20 touches for the first time all season last week (24), but has now popped up on the injury report and is considered questionable
  • He’s averaged 14.2 DK ppg this season
  • He’s only had one single digit performance, but he’s yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • Jacobs missed Weeks 2 & 3
  • In Week 2, Drake split touches with Peyton Barber 12-13
  • In Week 3, Barber took command with 26 touches to 11, and scored 26.2 DK pts
  • Barber has since been a healthy scratch several times, seeing just two more touches all season
  • WAS ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.8)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Melvin Gordon 20.2 // Darrel Williams 23.9 // CMC 24.9 // Kamara 29.2 // Cordarrelle Patterson 34.6