Kickoff Sunday, Dec 12th 4:05pm Eastern

Giants (
17.25) at
Chargers (
26.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The Giants are projected to start Jake Fromm at QB.
  • These are two of the clearest run funnel defenses in the league.
  • The Chargers WRs are dealing with Covid, the Giants WRs are dealing with injuries.
  • Saquon Barkley is underpriced for his role and matchup.
  • Austin Ekeler is a pay-up RB worth considering.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The 7-5 Chargers come into this game currently holding one of the three wildcard spots in the AFC. The playoff race is as tight as it gets with eight teams holding records between 7-5 and 6-6, and no division winners with records better than four losses. The Chargers are one and a half games from the top seed, and one and a half games from missing the playoffs. The Chargers play fast (6th in situational neutral pace) and are aggressively letting their young stud QB attack defenses. However, the Chargers are currently dealing with a bout of Covid, which could cause them to miss multiple starters. Player availability will drastically impact the Chargers game plan.

The Giants defense has been solid against the pass (8th in DVOA) but has gotten pasted on the ground (31st in DVOA), giving us one of the clearest run funnel defenses in the league. The Chargers aren’t set up to dominate teams with a power running game, but they are more than capable of running the ball when necessary. Throw in a Covid outbreak in the WR room, and there is a chance the Chargers come into this contest with their run heaviest game plan of the year. Expect the Chargers to uncharacteristically ride their running game and defense to victory, especially if their WRs can’t play.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 4-8 Giants are in shambles. After firing Jason Garett two games ago, their offense has responded by scoring a combined 22 points, and now might be down to their third-string QB that they just signed off another team’s practice squad. This organization needs the season to end. Freddie Kitchens has been the de facto offensive coordinator for the past two games but when you’re trying to install a new offense, and you haven’t had the same QB for more than one week since you took over, you’re in a tough spot. Kitchens is a reasonably capable OC, but no one could make this turd shine.

The Giants will be facing a Chargers defense that has been tough against the pass (9th in DVOA) and rolled over on the ground (32nd in DVOA). The Giants might be using their third-string QB so they have all the reason in the world to try and run the ball as much as they can in this spot. Kitchens is smart enough to realize that his best shot will be pounding the running game and hoping that things stay close enough late in the game for a break or two to give his team a victory. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game opened with a lowish total of 44.5 but has come down to 43 with all the uncertainty around who will be playing for the Chargers. Regardless of who suits up for LA, this game pits two of the clearest run funnel defenses in the league against each other, with two offensive coordinators that should be able to figure out running is the path of least resistance. Expect a lot of handoffs on both sides, with the Chargers being the more effective offense, and eventually opening up a lead as the Giants struggle to move the ball with their second or third-string QB at the helm.  

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DFS+ Interpretation :


By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • LAC’s implied total of 27.75 is the fourth highest in Week 14
  • NYG’s implied total of 17.25 is tied for the fourth lowest
  • Second highest spread of the week (-10.5)
  • NYG has scored fewer than 24 points in seven of their last eight games
  • NYG averages the fifth lowest ppg (17.6)
  • LAC ranks ninth in ppg (26.2)
  • LAC’s defense allows the sixth most ppg (26.2)
  • Per numberFire, LAC ranks second in adjusted seconds per play (28.2) and fourth in adjusted pass rate (64.1%)
  • NYG ranks 18th in adjusted seconds per play (29.5) and 14th in adjusted pass rate (59.7%)

Mike Glennon

  • As of Wednesday afternoon, Daniel Jones has not cleared protocol
  • Mike Glennon, if he clears as expected, will start Sunday
  • If not, it may be Jake Fromm
  • Glennon’s DK log in his past three starts: 14.44 // 17.64 // 6.48
  • In all three, he did not hit 4x his salary despite costing below $5,000
  • LAC ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to QBs (17.4)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Joe Burrow 22.6 // Ben Roethlisberger 22.92 // Patrick Mahomes 24.9 // Baker Mayfield 26

NYG Passing Attack

  • Snap count since Week 10 bye: Evan Engram 159 // Darius Slayton 130 // Kenny Golladay 128 // Pharoh Cooper 75
  • Target count since Week 10 bye: Slayton 18 // Engram 16 // Golladay 14 // Kadarius Toney 12 // Cooper 5
  • Toney has missed the past two weeks and his status is unclear for Week 14
  • Sterling Shepard hasn’t played since before the bye
  • Slayton has yet to score 15 DK pts this season
  • Golladay has scored eight or fewer DK pts in each of the past four weeks
  • Cooper has yet to score 5 DK pts this season
  • LAC ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to WRs (33.4)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Devonta Smith 25.6 // Justin Jefferson 25.9 // Diontae Johnson 26.1 // Tee Higgins 31.8
  • Since Week 10, Engram ranks 20th in WOPR among all TEs
  • His DK log since Week 10: 3.2 // 6.7 // 10.1
  • LAC ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (15.8)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Logan Thomas 12 // Darren Waller 15 // Tyler Conklin 16.1 // Mark Andrews 17.8 // Travis Kelce 20.4 // David Njoku 30.9

Saquon Barkley

  • Since the Week 10 bye, Barkley is tied for second in overall targets
  • His touch counts since then: 12 // 17 // 17
  • His DK log since then: 11.6 // 9.3 // 13.4
  • On the season, he’s averaging 9.47 DK ppg
  • His Week 14 salary of $6,000 is a season low
  • He began the year with a $7,800 tag
  • LAC ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (26.5)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Javonte Williams 20.1 // Dalvin Cook 20.8 // CEH 20.9 // Kareem Hunt 25.9 // Tony Pollard 26 // Nick Chubb 27

Justin Herbert

  • Ranks seventh in PFF passing grade
  • Following his OROY 2020 season, Herbert has improved in yardage (295.6), TD% (5.7%), and Sack% (5.0%)
  • Tied for first in DK ppg (25.3)
  • Has hit 4x his Week 14 salary five times this season
  • His $7,100 cost is the first time he’s been over $7k in four weeks
  • NYG ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19)
  • No opposing QBs have hit 4x Herbert’s salary vs. NYG
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Tom Brady 23.28 // Taylor Heinicke 24.04 // Dak Prescott 25.68 // Matthew Stafford 26.24

LAC Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Keenan Allen 88% // Mike Williams 78.9% // Jared Cook 56.6% // Jalen Guyton 56% // Donald Parham 44.6% // Joshua Palmer 26.2%
  • Target share: Allen 26.2% // Mike 19.6% // Cook 12.4% // Guyton 6.8% // Parham 5.1% // Palmer 4.4%
  • Among all WRs, Allen ranks 10th in target share and 18th in WOPR
  • He’s expected to miss Week 14
  • Mike was just placed on the COVID list and will miss Week 14 as well
  • Guyton has peaked at 5 targets this season, but has never had the top of the depth chart so wide open
  • He scored 18.9 @ CIN in Week 13, with a 4/4-90-1 stat line
  • Palmer has run 30 or fewer snaps in every game this year, with a yardage ceiling of 25 and a DK ceiling of 9.4 (1/1-24-1 stat line vs. NE)
  • NYG ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (38.1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Mike Evans 20.3 // Tyreek Hill 27.4 // Terry McLaurin 30.7 // Cooper Kupp 37
  • Cook averages 4.9 targets per game to Parham’s 2
  • Parham has just one game each of 4 & 5 targets
  • Cook has two games of 4 targets, four games of 5 targets, two games of 7 targets, and one 8 target game
  • They have each scored three TDs this season
  • Cook leads in red zone targets 7 to 5
  • He’s scored double digits four times this season
  • Parham costs just $400 less on DK, and he’s hit double digits twice
  • NYG ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (12.5)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Mike Gesicki 11.6 // Noah Fant 12.2 // Rob Gronkowski 13.1 // Dalton Schultz 13.9 // Darren Waller 16.2

Austin Ekeler

  • His salary started the season at $7,000 but is now on a third straight week in the $8k range ($8,300)
  • He’s scored about 4x his Week 14 salary three times
  • Among qualified RBs, Ekeler ranks 13th in rush share, 17th in goal line share, fifth in target share, fifth in WOPR, and seventh in RBOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • 22.2 DK ppg ranks third
  • NYG ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (26.4)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: JD McKissic 20.3 // Melvin Gordon 23.8 // Darrell Henderson 24.7 // Ezekiel Elliott 28.2