Kickoff Sunday, Dec 12th 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
20.5) at

Browns (
23.5)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
22nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
3rd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
14th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
11th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
30th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
15th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
18th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
1st DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • These are both slow-paced, run-oriented teams.
  • Devonta Freeman is mispriced for his role.
  • Lamar Jackson is likely to face a higher than normal blitz rate.
  • Austin Hooper offers cheap TE appeal, especially if all the other Browns TEs sit.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The 8-4 Ravens come into a division game at the top of an AFC North that is one of the most closely contested divisions in the league. All four teams are within two games of the Ravens, and if they drop this one, they’ll almost certainly give up control of their playoff future. This game has huge implications for the Ravens as we enter the home stretch of the 2021 season.

Harbaugh’s Ravens have been playing their usual brand of football, but in the past four games, their offense has sputtered to a halt. During the first eight games of the season, the Ravens scored over 30 points four times and were held under 20 points only twice. During the past four weeks, the Ravens haven’t broken 20 points in any game, with their low water mark coming in a 10-point game against the Dolphins. What changed? The Ravens are still playing slow (29th situation neutral pace), and are still featuring Lamar Jackson, the difference is in how defenses are choosing to play against Jackson. The past four weeks, after the league saw Miami play their natural style and have success, defensive coordinators have started to blitz Jackson. Beating the blitz requires making quick decisions from the pocket, and then delivering accurate passes into one-on-one man coverage. Consistently blitzing guys like Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers is suicide because they’re excellent decision-makers, accurate passes, and you’re essentially just taking players out of coverage. Consistently blitzing guys like Cam Newton or Lamar Jackson is another story. Harbaugh needs to figure out a way to adjust to all the heat Jackson is seeing, which may prove difficult because of Jackson’s weaknesses as a pocket passer. Expect Baltimore to try and adapt to what will likely be a blitz-heavy defensive game plan from Cleveland.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns had high hopes coming into the year, and they are now sitting at 6-6 in the basement of a tight division. They must feel as if this is a must-win game. The Browns were curiously scheduled Ravens/Bye/Ravens. After losing their first meeting, a loss here would leave the Browns down three games, and losing the tiebreaker with only four games left would all but eliminate them from the division. A win would even the season series to 1-1 and put the Browns just one game out of first place in the division. This is as close to a playoff game for the Browns as you can have at this point in the season.

The Browns schedule created almost a month-long period where they’ve had nothing to do other than focus on the Ravens. The Browns want to run the ball, but they are facing a defense that is stout on the ground (5th in DVOA) and weak through the air (27th in DVOA), creating a clear pass funnel. The Browns are typically more of a “do what we do” team, but in Week 12 the Browns departed from their normal approach and threw the ball 37 times, their highest total of the season. The game was close throughout, and both Hunt/Chubb were healthy, so this appears to be the result of a pass-oriented game plan. The Browns took the right approach, but it didn’t work, as they only put up 10 points. It’s commendable that the Browns tried to adapt for their opponent, but since the league is so results-oriented, and the result wasn’t what they wanted, there is a good chance they will revert to their ground and pound style. Expect the Browns to try and establish the run, while mixing in slightly more passing than usual.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a tiny total of 42 as both sides can be expected to the run ball, and the more explosive offense (Ravens) has looked like the league figured them out the past four weeks, including a 16-point performance against this Browns team in Week 12. The most likely game flow has both offenses struggling, with the Browns trying to lean on their running game more than they did in Week 12.  This game is likely to be competitive throughout, with the winner being determined by one score late in the fourth quarter.


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WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Third lowest total in Week 14 (42.5)
  • Dropped four points since opening
  • BAL has scored fewer than 20 pts for four straight weeks
  • CLE has scored fewer than 14 pts for three straight weeks
  • Per numberFire, BAL ranks 29th in adjusted seconds per play (31.2) and 28th in adjusted pass rate (52.2%)
  • CLE ranks 30th in adjusted seconds per play (31.5) and 24th in adjusted pass rate (54.4%)
  • Both teams average 147.1 rushing yards per game

Lamar Jackson

  • Ranks 26th in PFF passing grade
  • Career high in INT% (3.4%)
  • Worst TD% since rookie year (4.2%)
  • Ranks fifth in DK ppg (24.3)
  • Hasn’t scored 20 pts since Week 9
  • CLE ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18.8)
  • An opposing QB hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts against CLE since Week 6
  • Lamar threw four picks against CLE two weeks ago

BAL Passing Attack

  • Second highest usage rate of 21 personnel (29%) and highest rate of 22 personnel (18%)
  • Third lowest usage rate of 11 personnel (37%)
  • Snap share: Mark Andrews 71.8% // Marquise Brown 69.8% // Rashod Bateman 58.7% // Devin Duvernay 54% // Sammy Watkins 44.3%
  • Target share: Brown 23.3% // Andrews 23.1% // Watkins 10.8% // Bateman 9.2% // Duvernay 8.5%
  • Among all WRs, Brown ranks 25th in air yard target share, 12th in target share, and 19th in WOPR
  • His 17.5 DK ppg ranks 10th
  • Brown’s seven targets in Week 13 were the first time he received less than 10 since Week 6
  • His salary has ranged from $5,100 in Week 1 to a high of $7,100 in the Week 11 game that he missed ($6,300 in Week 14)
  • Watkins received six targets in Week 13, his most since Week 4
  • He has yet to his 15 DK pts
  • Watkins returned to a full time role in Week 11, but Bateman’s snaps nearly matched him and have continued to do so
  • Bateman’s targets have decreased from eight in Week 9 to one in Week 13 (season low)
  • Duvernay has just one double digit DK performance this season
  • CLE ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (34.7)
  • Only two WRs have scored 20+ DK pts since Week 6
  • Among all TEs, Andrews ranks second in air yard market share and target share, and first in WOPR
  • His 15.4 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • CLE ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (12.4)
  • Andrews scored 16.5 vs. CLE two weeks ago
  • Six TEs have scored double digits vs. CLE

BAL RBs

  • Devonta Freeman has led all RBs in snaps every week since Week 6
  • He’s led in targets in every game he received at least one
  • His eight targets were the second most among all positions in Week 13
  • DK log since Week 6: 11.3 // 12.9 // 16.3 // 8.8 // 20 // 7 // 20.7
  • CLE ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.4)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Najee Harris 21 // D’Andre Swift 25.6 // Joe Mixon 28 // Rhamondre Stevenson 30.4 // Austin Ekeler 33.9

Baker Mayfield

  • Tied for 27th in PFF passing grade
  • Career lows in yardage (219.4) and TD% (3.5%)
  • Averaging 14.36 DK ppg
  • Only one 20+ performance (26 @ CLE)
  • That’s also the only time he has scored 4x his salary, unsurprisingly
  • BAL ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20.1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Kirk Cousins 21.58 // Carson Wentz 26.58 // Derek Carr 28 // Patrick Mahomes 28.02 // Joe Burrow 30.64

CLE Passing Attack

  • Led the league in 13 personnel usage rate (21%)
  • Snap counts since OBJ left (Week 9): Jarvis Landry 183 // Austin Hooper 174 // David Njoku 160 // Donovan Peoples-Jones 124 // Rashard Higgins 82
  • Target counts since Week 9: Landry 28 // Hooper 17 // Njoku 16 // DPJ 13 // Higgins 6
  • Landry is the only player to hit double digit targets all season (Weeks 8 & 12)
  • He’s yet to hit 20 DK pts this season
  • His salary rose by $600 from Week 13 to Week 14
  • Only DPJ has scored 20+ DK pts among all CLE WRs (29.1 vs. AZ)
  • BAL ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs (37.5)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Michael Pittman 20.9 // Marquise Goodwin 23.4 // Darnell Mooney 26.1 // Diontae Johnson 33.5 // Ja’Marr Chase 37.1
  • Njoku has three of the four double digit scores among CLE TEs (10.6, 12.5, 30.9)
  • Hooper has the other (12.5)
  • BAL ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (17.2)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Jared Cook 12.5 // David Njoku 12.5 // Noah Fant 16.6 // CJ Uzomah 24.1 // Travis Kelce 26.9 // Darren Waller 29.5

CLE RBs

  • Kareem Hunt returned to limited action in Week 12 @ BAL (23 snaps, 1 target, and just 7 touches)
  • Nick Chubb had just 30 snaps, 4 targets, and 10 touches in Week 12
  • This is the same game that Lamar Jackson turned the ball over four times
  • On the season, Chubb averages 17.7 DK pts to Hunt’s 15.2
  • Out of nine games, Chubb has three single digit performances, two in the teens, two in the twenties, and one 30+ effort
  • Out of seven games, Hunt has two single digit performances, three with 10+ pts, and two 25+ efforts
  • BAL ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.3)
  • Only two RBs have scored 20+ vs. BAL: D’Andre Swift 23.7 // Jonathan Taylor 34.9