Raiders (

19.25) at
Chiefs (

28.75)

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Raiders running back Kenyan Drake was placed on IR following a gruesome ankle injury sustained in Week 13, while Jalen Richard was placed on the COVID list on Monday following a positive test on game day.
• Raiders tight end Darren Waller missed Week 13’s contest but has been upgraded to day-to-day – the team is hopeful he can play this week, but he missed practice on Wednesday and should face an uphill battle.
• Both defenses aim to mute deep passing and splash plays against through elevated zone rates and 2-high safety usage – volume reigns supreme from this one.
• Josh Jacobs sets up for his highest opportunity total on the season should Jalen Richard miss.

How Las Vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders are dealing with a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball, as all of Kenyan Drake (ankle, IR), Darren Waller (knee, back), Jalen Richard (COVID list), linebacker Denzel Perryman (ankle), defensive end Carl Nassib (knee), and defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson (back) failed to practice on Wednesday. We know this offense is built around an inefficient run game and deep passing (seventh-highest overall pass rate at 63%, Derek Carr holds the league’s fourth-most intended air yards this year), which should be affected by Kansas City’s defensive tendencies (high zone rates and 2-high safety usage, built to force teams into short passing over the middle of the field). Expect the Raiders to be forced to the air through Hunter Renfrow, the tight end position, and the running back position (both tight end and running back are somewhat up in the air at this time, as Darren Waller aims to return after a one-game absence and Jalen Richard aims to make it off the COVID list in time).

The Raiders running back situation is one of the more important injury situations to monitor this week, as Kenyan Drake was lost for the season with a broken ankle and Jalen Richard tested positive for COVID on Sunday, forcing him to miss Week 13’s game and putting his Week 14 status into question. In the absence of those two backs, Josh Jacobs handled his highest snap rate of the season and saw the most targets of his young career (nine). Should Richard miss again this week, Jacobs would be positioned to see his heaviest workload of the season against an opponent that has surrendered 24.8 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. The pure rushing matchup yields an above-average 4.39 net-adjusted line yards metric. As previously discussed, the Chiefs force pass game usage to the short-to-intermediate middle of the field, increasing the likelihood that Jacobs replicates his increased pass game usage this week (the Chiefs have faced the 10^th-most targets to opposing running backs this season at 94). Should Richard return in time, expect a more natural 65/35% split in snap rates and running back opportunities, lowering the floor and ceiling (and our interest) of both members of this backfield.

A big part of the fantasy allure of this Raiders team revolves around the status of Darren Waller, who was upgraded from week-to-week to day-to-day early this week. That said, he failed to practice on Wednesday and should be considered questionable at this time. With Waller out most of the last two weeks, slot man Hunter Renfrow has led the team in targets and production, catching 17 of 19 targets and eclipsing 100 yards receiving in each game. Furthermore, the matchup against the Chiefs tilts expected pass production towards the areas of the field that Renfrow works, once again making him a high floor option (should Waller miss). Additionally, similar to last week, we should once again expect Foster Moreau to stay in to block more often than not against a Chiefs unit that blitzes at the eighth-highest rate in the league (29.2%), further funneling expected pass production. We spoke to the increased pass game usage for Josh Jacobs above, who would likely stand to match or surpass his inflated target total from last week here considering the matchup. The perimeter receiver trio of Bryan Edwards, Zay Jones, and DeSean Jackson are all unlikely to see both volume and efficiency in their downfield roles against the Chiefs.

HoW kansas city Will Try To Win ::

Jared Goff currently has the lowest completed air yards per completion value in the league at 3.8 – no surprise here. Ben Roethlisberger currently has the second-lowest completed air yards per completion in the league at 4.7 – again, no surprise here. Patrick Mahomes ranks third to last in the league in completed air yards per completion at 4.9 but ranks first in the league in total intended air yards. This means that Mahomes and the Chiefs are still attempting downfield passes but have been far less efficient when targeting receivers greater than 15 yards downfield. But what has this meant for the offense as a whole? For one, Tyreek Hill’s average depth of target is over two full yards shallower this season when compared to last, with a higher rate of targets coming within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Secondly, Mecole Hardman and his 6.4 aDOT have fallen out of favor in this offense, paving the way for Byron Pringle and Josh Gordon to see increased playing time in more downfield roles. Finally, Travis Kelce currently holds his lowest catch rate in over three seasons (66.7%) due primarily to opposing defenses not being stretched as much vertically. Furthermore, from a macro perspective, this is still the most efficient offense in the league (first in yards per drive, first in plays per drive, and first in drive success rate), but they have struggled mightily with turnovers (second to last in turnovers per drive) this season. Expect an up-tempo offense (third-fastest overall pace of play and fourth-fastest situation-neutral pace of play) built to put a strain on an opposing defense for the duration of the game.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned from an extended absence in Week 11 and has played in a near-even split with Darrel Williams over the previous two games. Expect that trend to continue as the team searches for ways to get the more dynamic abilities of Williams into the fold, particularly in the passing game. CEH has averaged 15.5 running back opportunities per game over that stretch, while Williams has seen eight running back opportunities in each of the past two games. The matchup on the ground should be considered a net-positive, yielding a moderate 4.36 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Raiders defense allowing 28.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (fourth-most in the league).

We’ve talked about this before in other places around the site, but it seems the team has lost its interest in the potential of Mecole Hardman, who has seen his snap rate dwindle to under 20% each of the past two games. The direct beneficiary of that move has been Byron Pringle, whose solid 12.4 aDOT and 4.8 average YAC highlight what Kansas City wanted Hardman to be (an additional downfield option). Demarcus Robinson has even seen his snap rate decrease of late as the team looks for more opportunities to get Josh Gordon more involved, averaging only 38.4% of the offensive snaps over the last five games. The big picture here, however, is that the Chiefs are mixing-and-matching offensive personnel more than they have in recent seasons, with only Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Byron Pringle now seeing near every-down snap rates, and even then, it has not been uncommon for Cheetah and Kelce to see snap rates in the low to mid 70% range. The Chiefs continue to place games in Patrick Mahomes’ hands, averaging the second-most pass attempts per game at 41.3 this season, in addition to averaging 281.1 pass yards per game. We talked about the changing dynamics with respect to the lack of deep passing efficiency above, and, when compared to the matchup with a Raiders defense that aims to hide talent deficiencies with defensive scheme by playing at elevated zone alignment rates and forcing teams shallow and to the middle of the field, we should be hunting for volume amongst the Kansas City pass-catchers this week. Surprise, surprise, Tyreek Hill (in his new, lower-aDOT role) and Travis Kelce set up well for that volume.

Likeliest Game flow ::

Due to both available personnel and matchup, the Raiders are highly unlikely to be able to generate the splash plays that they have built their offense around this season. Furthermore, expect the Chiefs to force Las Vegas to march the field in order to beat them, creating additional opportunities for stalled drives and turnover generation. Now consider the fact that the Chiefs defense is finally playing up to the level we expected coming into the season (they have allowed 17 or fewer points against in each of their last five games – against the Giants, Packers (Jordan Love), this same Raiders team, Cowboys, and Broncos), and we’re left with a likeliest game flow that has Kansas City controlling the tempo, flow, and game environment (which has been rather unusual this season). This should force the Raiders into increased short-area passing to Hunter Renfrow, either Darren Waller or Foster Moreau, and Josh Jacobs (who might be the most intriguing of the bunch, assuming Jalen Richard is also out). 

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