Game Overview ::
By mjohnson86 >>
- Atlanta has a respectable win/loss record, but the fourth worst point differential in the league.
- Carolina is coming out of the bye week and will likely look like a new team in their first game with Cam Newton at QB and no Christian McCaffery.
- The Panthers defense is very good, especially against lower competition and in positive or neutral game scripts.
How atlanta Will Try To Win ::
On paper, Atlanta enters Week 14 with a 5-7 record and within striking distance of the playoff race. In reality, the Falcons have a 5-2 record in one-score games, with all of those wins coming against teams with a losing record. To put it simply, the Falcons only have a chance in games against poor teams, and they have run hot in those spots pulling out some close games.
In the first game between these two teams, Carolina won an ugly 19-13 game and controlled Atlanta’s offense pretty much the entire game. They gave significant attention and focus to Kyle Pitts, and their swarming defense kept the Falcons from getting any sort of running game going as well. Atlanta plays with a top-10 pace of play and also throws the ball at a top-10 situation-neutral rate this season. Those statistics are likely to stay consistent in this matchup as there is nothing about this matchup that points to a high likelihood of success in the running game, and the Falcons don’t have a great scheme or personnel to move the ball making tempo their best chance of success. This is just a very difficult matchup for the Falcons, as their running game has been so inconsistent and unreliable this season, and the Panthers have one of the top pass defenses in the league. The Falcons will have to find ways to get the ball in the hands of Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts as often as possible if they are going to have any offensive success here.
How carolina Will Try To Win ::
In the first game between these two teams, Carolina went with a very run-heavy game plan of 47 rushes and only 25 pass attempts. That was a game on the road and with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Now the Panthers have Cam Newton at quarterback and are at home. Even though there is different personnel and the Panthers just made a change at offensive coordinator, it is hard to see a drastic change in approach from the first matchup as Cam is clearly a bigger threat on the ground than in the passing game at this point in his career (as evidenced by his dreadful passing performance against the Dolphins where he completed only five of 21 pass attempts). The Carolina offensive approach will likely be very clear and direct in this matchup, with a heavy focus on the running game using their backs and Cam in various ways. In the passing game, we should expect them to keep things easy for Cam and likely try to find ways to involve DJ Moore in more short area work now that CMC is out for the season. Coming out of the bye week, the offensive focus of the Panthers will likely be leveraging Cam’s strengths and hiding his weaknesses while finding creative ways to get the ball in the hands of their best remaining playmaker.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
This game will likely have a close resemblance to the first matchup between these teams. The Panthers are most likely to control a low-scoring game where the Falcons will have trouble moving the ball, and the Panthers will approach things in a very conservative manner that is unlikely to be explosive or lead to a high-scoring game. The Panthers are the slower-paced team and will run the ball at a high rate, while the Falcons are likely to have a lot of short drives, leading to a higher percentage of the play volume on the Panthers side and also keeping the clock running and shortening the game. The best chance of this game exceeding total points expectations is likely to come from turnovers from either side that give short fields and easy points to the other team. The Carolina defense is very capable of forcing turnovers, and Cam has shown that he is liable to give the ball away very easily, even against a poor defense like Atlanta’s, increasing the volatility of projections in this game as turnovers always have the ability to significantly change the environment of a football game.
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WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Cam Newton:
- ATL vs CAR finishing combined totals in Rhule era: 39, 42, 32
- CAR just fired their OC from the start of 2020 with an explanation of wanting to run the ball more
- Cam’s first two starts::
- Passing: 189:2 // 92:0:2
- Rushing: 46:1 // 5:1
- ATL has only held 3/12 QBs under 220 yds
- QB rushing vs ATL: Hurts (62) // Jones (39) // Heinicke (43) // Tua (29) // Darnold (66) // Dak (TD) // Lawrence (39)
- Cam rushed for 30+ yds in 8 games in 2020 (38, 46, 47, 48, 54, 75, 76, 79) and 12 rush TDs
CAR WRs:
- Moore has between 7-13 tg in every game
- Moore’s first four games (DK pts): 15.4 // 21.9 // 23.5 // 34.9
- Moore’s last eight games (DK pts): 8.8 // 11.9 // 13.3 // 9.9 // 7.6 // 6.4 // 16 // 17.3
- 20+ pt DK scores with Cam in NE last year: Edelman (28.9) // Meyers (31.9, 21.1) // Byrd (29.3)
- Evans, McLaurin, Lamb, Godwin are the only WRs with 20+ DK pts vs ATL; the first three scored 2 TDs and Godwin caught 15 passes
- Smith, Evans (x2), McLaurin, Waddle, Lamb, Godwin are the only WRs with 70+ rec yds vs ATL
- CAR WRs in first ATL matchup: Moore (59) // Robby (0) // Smith (-2)
CAR RBs:
- CMC back on IR & Freeman gone, so Hubbard & Abdullah are the only others with usage
- Hubbard led the backfield in CMC’s previous absence, but Abdullah out-touched him with CMC playing
- Hubbard’s rush att as starter: 13 // 24 // 16 // 12 // 24
- Hubbard’s targets as starter: 2 // 6 // 3 // 5 // 2
- Hubbard’s yds as starter: 71 // 134 // 65 // 56 // 91
- Hubard’s 26 touches for 91 yds vs ATL was his last start
- Sanders (74), Hubbard (82), Robinson (86) are the only RBs to crack 70 rush yds vs ATL
- Seven other RBs have reached 50 rush yds, & seven RBs have reached 30 rec yds vs ATL
- ATL has allowed a RB TD in 9/12 games
- Hubbard scored just twice in his five starts
Matt Ryan:
- Ryan has 22+ DK pts in 5/12 games, with highs of 29 & 31.5 DK pts
- Ryan has sub-13 DK pts in six of the other seven (7.4, 8.1, 2.7, 4.1, 11.2, 12.1)
- Ryan’s DK scores since losing Ridley: 8.1, 31.5, 2.7, 4.1, 11.2, 12.1
- Ryan’s pass yds since losing Ridley: 146 // 343 // 117 // 153 // 190 // 297
- CAR has held seven QBs under 200 pass yds, and the others have thrown for 258, 373, 206, 230
- CAR ranks 5th in def pass DVOA and has allowed the 4th fewest QB DK pts/g
- Ryan threw for just 146 yds, TD, 2 INT vs CAR
- Ryan vs CAR in 2020: 226:0:1 // 281:0:1, rush TD
ATL WRs:
- CAR has allowed the 6th fewest WR DK pts/g
- Gage has 7+ rec in just 8 career games (2 this year)
- Last week’s 130 yds was Gage’s career high, and only second 100 yd game of career
- McLaurin is the only WR since 2020 to reach 100 yds vs CAR without 7+ rec to get there (Evans, Keenan, Ridley, Julio, Tyreek, Cooks, Thielen, Waddle)
- CAR’s only 20+ pt WRs allowed in 2021: Davis (5:97:2) // Cooks (9:112) // Thielen (11:126:1) // McLaurin (5:103:1) // Waddle (9:137:1)
- Since returning (7 g), Gage has four games of 60+ yds (67, 64, 62, 130), but also two games with 0 yds in each
- Gage didn’t even receive a target in the first matchup vs CAR
Kyle Pitts:
- CAR has allowed the 6th lowest success rate & 3rd lowest yds/att to TEs
- Notable TEs vs CAR: Schultz (6:58:1) // Goedert (2:28) // Conklin (3:71) // Engram (6:44) // Pitts (2:13) // Henry (2:19:1) // Ertz (4:46) // Gesicki (3:17)
- Pitts targets: 8, 6, 3, 9, 10, 8, 6, 7, 7, 5, 6, 7
- Pitts without Ridley: 9:119:1 // 2:13 // 3:62 // 4:60 // 3:29 // 2:26 // 4:48
ATL RBs:
- CPatt’s rush att first four games vs last six full games: (7, 7, 7, 6 // 14, 14, 9, 9, 16, 13)
- CPatt has 75+ yds in 6/10 full games, and 90+ in the last three (136, 135, 96)
- CPatt has just three games all season below 16 DK pts: (8.7, 23.9, 16.2, 34.6, 18.4, 14.1, 18.2, 22.6, 30.5, 12.6)
- CPatt has 9 TDs on the season, with three multi-TD games
- CPatt has 5+ rec in 6/10 full games (2 // 5 // 6 // 5 // 7 // 2 // 5 // 6 // 2 // 3)
- His rec yds in the games with 5+ rec: 58:1 // 82 // 82:3 // 60 // 37:1 // 126
- Davis has yet to top 75 yds on the season, with a rushing yds high of 53
- Last week was Davis’s best score of the season and he didn’t even crack 17 DK pts
- Only RBs with 75+ yds vs CAR: Zeke (143:1) // Cook (143:1) // Stevenson (106), Bolden (81) // Gibson (95)
- CAR has allowed just 7 RB rush TDs
- CAR has allowed the lowest success rate & yds/att on RB targets
- CPatt (37:1) & Stevenson (44) are the only RBs with 30+ rec yds vs CAR
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