Kickoff Sunday, Dec 12th 1:00pm Eastern

Saints (
23.5) at

Jets (
18.5)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Saints Run D
13th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
21st DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
13th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
23rd DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
9th DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
24th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • New Orleans has gone on an incredible tail spin after a promising start to the season. After a huge win over the Bucs to move to 5-2, they have lost five straight games.
  • The Saints have a clear “pass funnel” defense, while the Jets have a clear “everything funnel” defense.
  • This is the first game the Saints will play this year with Alvin Kamara healthy and Taysom Hill starting, adding guesswork to the projections for this game.
  • This game has some interesting strategy angles to consider based on salaries and expected ownership.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

The statistics this season for the Saints are so hard to judge in this spot because of the fact they are on their third starting QB, and he (Taysom Hill) is such a unique player who does things so differently than the other quarterbacks on the team. Week 13 was Hill’s first start, and he performed kind of how we expected — shaky as a passer while “getting there” in fantasy through rushing production and volume. While the Saints did pass at a high rate in that game, that likely had to do with the fact they were trailing for most of the game rather than an approach we should expect going forward.

While the Jets pass defense is nothing to write home about, their run defense is equally bad or perhaps even worse. They rank in the bottom three in the league by most metrics against both the run and the pass. Alvin Kamara is logging full practices after missing four weeks, and Taysom Hill has an injury to a finger on his throwing hand. Those factors, along with their lack of talent in their receiving corps, should make this game plan pretty straightforward for Sean Payton — run it until they prove they can stop you. The strength of the Saints run defense coupled with the struggles of Zach Wilson in the passing game make it unlikely the Jets will be able to put up any amount of points that would push the Saints away from their gameplan, making it almost a certainty that New Orleans will try to win this game behind their offensive line and their two-headed monster running game. It does seem likely that the Saints will have some downfield attempts if/when the Jets sell out to stop the running game, and they also have some players who can make big plays after the catch (as evidenced by Deonte Harris’ 70-yard touchdown reception against the Cowboys), but guessing if, how, and who will be the recipient of such a play is likely a fool’s errand.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets are almost certain to struggle running the ball, as their line is overmatched against the defensive front of the Saints, and their healthy running backs are a talent deficient group unlikely to overcome such a difficult matchup through either volume or efficiency. The Saints defense forces teams to become more pass-heavy, but with injuries looming in the receiving corps (Corey Davis is out for the season and Elijah Moore has yet to practice) and Zach Wilson’s troubles this season, it is hard to see the Jets really turning things up in that area. Tevin Coleman is looking doubtful to play with a concussion, further diluting the backfield for the Jets and leaving Ty Johnson, La’Mical Perine, and Austin Walter to do the work. It seems like the Jets will be very conservative in this spot by mixing up usage of their running backs and focusing on short-area throws for Wilson to protect him from an aggressive Saints defense. The Jets will likely be careful on offense and hope their defense can keep things close against what should be a predictable opponent.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Saints are likely to control this game as the Jets will struggle mightily to sustain drives and put points on the board. The Saints will likely take an extremely run-heavy approach for as long as they can and will simply impose their will on the Jets and pull away at a slow pace. The likely run-first focus for the Saints coupled with the difficulty of moving the ball for the Jets will lead to a significant lead for the Saints in the time of possession and field position battles. This will likely also result in a faster-moving game as the clock will constantly be running, limiting the overall play volume. The Saints are much more likely than the Jets to truly take control of the game, but the likeliest outcome is a low-scoring game that doesn’t get too far out of hand in either direction.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Zach Wilson:

  • NOR still ranks 12th in def pass DVOA despite some down weeks vs good QBs
  • NOR has 14 INT on the season
  • Wilson has thrown just 6 TDs to 11 INT
  • Last week was Wilson’s first of 20 DK pts and it was still just 22 DK pts (thanks to a rush TD)

NYJ WRs:

  • Tg since Bye: Moore (6, 6, 8, 6, 11, 8, 12) // Crowder (6, 9, 7, 6, 7, 1, 6)
  • In the last six games, Moore is averaging 5.7 rec for 76.5 yds, 0.8 TDs
  • Moore’s low & high DK scores during span are 9.3 & 32.6, with three scores of 20+ DK pts
  • Crowder is averaging just 4.5 rec for 42.2 yds during that span, with a high DK score of 16.4
  • 16 WRs have 60+ yds vs NOR this season
  • NOR has allowed the 4th highest yds/att to WRs
  • No team has faced WR targets at a higher rate than NOR
  • While Moore predominantly plays outside WR, he has spent about 26% of snaps in slot, where Lattimore has spent just 5% of snaps

NYJ RBs:

  • RB touches since Carter went down (2g): Coleman (27 att, 7 tg) // Johnson (7 att, 5 tg) // Walter (10 att, 3 tg)
  • NOR ranks 1st in def rush DVOA and has allowed the 3rd lowest success rate on RB tg

Taysom Hill:

  • NYJ allowed 2 pass TDs in the first 4 games
  • NYJ have allowed 18 pass TDs in the last 8 games
  • NYJ have fallen to last in def pass DVOA
  • Taysom will attempt to play through a throwing hand finger injury sustained last week
  • Taysom passing in starts: 233:0 // 78:0:1 // 232:2 // 291:2:1 // 264:2:4
  • Taysom rushing in starts: 10:49:2 // 10:44:2 // 14:83 // 5:33 // 11:101
  • QB rushing vs NYJ: Darnold (TD) // Teddy (24) // Wentz (13) // Allen (3) // Tyrod (30)
  • Every QB has scored 2+ TDs vs NYJ since Week 4
  • Taysom has scored 2+ TDs in every start

NOR WRs:

  • Leading WR Deonte Harris just began his 3-wk suspension
  • Harris had been averaging 6.2 tg/g over the last six weeks
  • Tre’Quan Smith & Callaway are the next leading target-getters on NOR
  • Callaway hasn’t topped 40 yds since WK 5 when he caught a Hail-Mary TD
  • 14.4 DK pts is the most Smith has scored since returning
  • Callaway’s hail-mary score game is the only 20+ pt DK score by a NOR WR in 2021
  • Jets have allowed an average amount of WR DK pts/g thanks to the 6th fewest WR TDs allowed (9) and 4th fewest faced WR tg

NOR RBs:

  • NYJ have allowed 36.9 DK pts/g to RBs; next closest is 31.9 DK pts/g
  • The Jets have allowed the 3rd most RB rush yds/g, most RB rush TDs, 4th most RB rec/g, & 2nd most RB rec yds/g
  • Four RBs have had 60+ rec yds vs NYJ (two more of 40+) (four more of 30+)
  • Kamara’s total touches: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 23 // 20
  • RB touches w/ Taysom in 2020::
  • AK: (13 att, 1 tg) // (11, 2) // (15, 3) // (11, 10)
  • Lat: (12 att, 2 tg) // (19, 1) // (5, 2) // (4, 1)
  • NOR scored 8 rush TDs in Taysom’s 4 starts: (4 Taysom, 2 AK, 2 Murray)
  • In Taysom’s first 2021 start, NOR RBs went: Ingram (10:28, 1:-2), TyMont (4:21, 4:9)
  • NOR was down to third stringers on the offensive line with 3 starters & 2 backups injured (Ram & Armstead still questionable)
  • Two of AK’s three lowest touch totals this year came after Ingram joined, but he is now on Covid list