Kickoff Sunday, Dec 12th 4:05pm Eastern

Lions (
14.75) at
Broncos (
27.25)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>
  • There isn’t a lot to like for DFS in this one.
  • The Broncos play slow in all situations.
  • The Lions backfield was a timeshare without D’Andre Swift.
  • The Broncos backfield is a timeshare, unless Gordon sits, which would elevate Williams to an elite play.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions have been playing feisty football all year despite not having NFL talent level on their roster. Last week, they were finally rewarded on the last play of the game with a thrilling victory against division rival Minnesota. The 1-10-1 Lions are coming into this game off a victory for the first time all season, and entering a possible letdown spot against a Broncos team that is desperately trying to stay in the AFC playoff race. The Lions want to play slow (30th situational neutral pace), but speed way up when behind (9th in pace when trailing), and they are almost always behind. The Lions are scrappy and willing to do “whatever is working” in that individual game if it’s keeping things close. 

This week they draw a Denver team that has been middling against the run (16th in DVOA), and poor against the pass (25th in DVOA). That difference shouldn’t tilt the Lions particularly pass-heavy. Instead, the Lions are likely to maintain their normal balanced offense while trying to feel out the game. They won’t be afraid to cut bait and start passing if they’re behind, but the Broncos offense isn’t the type that forces a ton of aggression. Expect the Lions to remain balanced, while hoping to keep things close and searching for a chance to win a close game late.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The 6-6 Broncos come into this game playing disappointing .500 football. Although that’s not the result this franchise had hoped for this year, it is about in line with their talent level, and the Broncos are unlikely to perform much better down the stretch. The Broncos play slow in all situations (29th situational neutral, 26th when trailing, 28th when ahead) and generally suck the life out of games. Vic Fangio hasn’t been able to figure out that Teddy Bridgewater is more average than bad and continues to call a game plan designed to hide his QB.  

This week Denver draws a Lions team that can be had coming and going, posting a poor 28th DVOA against the pass, and an almost as bad 23rd DVOA against the run. The Lions present nothing but paths of least resistance which means the Broncos should be comfortable attacking in their preferred manner, on the ground. Expect the Broncos to come in with a conservative game plan, designed to run the ball and chew up the clock. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low total of 42 because the Lions aren’t expected to produce many points, with one of the lowest team totals you’ll see of only 17. That feels fair, as outside of last week’s 29-point game, the Lions have amazingly broken 17 points only once since Week 2, and they scored 19 points in that game. Ouch. The Broncos defense hasn’t been good this year, but they should be able to limit the talentless Lions offense coming into a tough environment at Mile High. The Broncos need to win to keep their season alive, and the Lions are coming off an emotional high. The most likely game flow has the Broncos controlling the game, riding their defense and running game to a confident victory.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview: 

  • 2nd lowest total on slate (42)
  • Total has dropped 1.5 points
  • DEN is favored by 7.5
  • DET is 8-4 ATS // DEN is 6-6
  • DET ranks 29th in ppg (16.9) // DEN ranks 3rd in ppg allowed (18.2) 
  • DEN ranks 23rd in ppg (19.8) // DET ranks 29th in ppg allowed (26.3)
  • DEN pts allowed last five: (13, 30, 16, 10, 17)
  • 10 of 12 DEN games have went under the total
  • DET’s last four have all been within 3 pts: (vs MIN 29-27) // (vs CHI 14-16) // (@ CLE 13-10) // (@ PIT 16-16)
  • DET has scored under 20 pts in all but 2 games (Last week-29 pts, Week 1-33 pts)

Jared Goff:

  • 20+ DK pt games: (WK 1 vs SF, 32.92) // (WK 2 @ GB, 20.44) // (WK 13 vs MIN, 21.94)
  • Goff has thrown for 300+ yds once (WK 1 vs SF)
  • He does have other totals of 296, 268, 299 in other games
  • 5 games throwing 0 TDs // 1 game (last week) throwing 3
  • $5.1k is the 2nd cheapest starting QB this week
  • Season long price range ($5k-$5.4k)
  • DEN allows the 5th least DK pts to QBs (17.0)

DET WRs:

  • Tgts since WK 9 Bye: Amon-Ra St. Brown (12, 4, 4, 6) // Kalif Raymond (2, 4, 1, 6) // Josh Reynolds (7, 5, 3, DNP) 
  • St. Brown ($5k) is at his highest price all season after last weeks 10:86:1 TD, 24.8 DK pt game
  • His previous high was Week 12 ($4.4k)
  • DET WRs have only 8 RZ tgts on the season // Swift + Hockenson have 20 combined
  • DEN has allowed the 6th least 20+ yd recs (31)
  • DEN allows the 7th least DK pts/g to WRs (32.6)

DET TEs:

  • Hockenson leads the team in tgts (84), recs (61), & rec TDs (4)
  • He’s T-1st w/ Swift in RZ tgts: 10
  • Price: $5.3k // Season range: $4.9k-$5.8k
  • DEN allows the 4th least DK pts/g to TEs (8.4)

DET RBs:

  • D’Andre Swift (Q) got injured after 10 snaps Week 12, missed last week, & missed Wednesday’s practice
  • Snap last 2 w/o Swift (of 121): (Jamaal Williams-65) // (Jermar Jefferson-13) // (Godwin Igwebuike-32)
  • Williams last 2: (rush 17:71 rec 1:9) // (rush 16:65 rec 5:18)
  • HIs price ($5.5k) rose $100 from last week 
  • DEN allows the 11th least DK pts to RBs (22.4)

Teddy Bridgewater:

  • 20+ DK points: (Week 1 @ NYG, 20.5) // (Week 2 @ JAX, 24.2) // (Week 6 vs LV, 25.3) // (Week 9 @ DAL, 21.9)
  • DET has allowed 20+ DK pts to QBs in five of 12
  • $5.7k is $100 shy of Teddy’s season high
  • Price Range: $4.9k-$5.8k
  • DEN allows the 14th most DK pts to QBs (19.4)

DEN WRs:

  • Tgts since Jerry Jeudy return: (Jeudy-6, 3, 9, 8, 4) // (Sutton-6, 3, 3, 2) // (Patrick-5, 3, 6, 5)
  • Only one 100+ yd rec game from DEN WRs was Week 5 (Sutton, 120)
  • In 5 games Jeudy has not had more than 12.9 DK pts
  • His salary ($5.6k) is the most expensive all season
  • Sutton ($5.3k) is at the low end of his season long price range ($5.1k-$6.4k)
  • In twelve games, Patrick ($4.8k) has not broke 18.5 DK pts
  • DEN ranks 18 in pass yds/g (225.9) // DET ranks 21st in pass yds allowed (249.8)
  • DET has allowed 20+ DK pts to RBs in 7 of 12 weeks
  • In the games they didn’t allow 20+ to an RB: (Mooney: 20.5) // (Week 8 they allowed two RBs w/ 17+) // (Kupp-40.6) // (Andrews-18.9) // (Deebo-35.9)
  • DET allows the 12th most DK pts to WRs (36.7)

DEN RBs:

  • Melvin Gordon (Q) missed last week
  • Javonte Williams ($5.9k) w/o Gordon: (rush 23:102) // (rec 6:76:1 TD, 9 tgts)
  • Other RBs in Williams’ price range: Gibson, Barkley-$6k // Hubbard-$5.9k // James Robinson (Q)-$5.8k // Ingram-$5.8k
  • Williams got 29 touches of a possible 34 RB touches last week
  • DET allows the 3rd most DK pts to RBs (28.2)
  • Notable RB scores allowed by DET: (Mattison-21.4) // (Chubb-25.4) // (Harris-20.3) // (Scott-18.0 + Howard-17.7) // (Mixon-26.30 + Evan-15.7) // (Mattison-30.3) // (Montgomery-25.6) // (Jones-41.5) // (Mitchell-19.4)

DEN TEs:

  • Noah Fant has seven career games with 15+ DK points 
  • He’s cracked 15+ pts twice this season
  • Fant has 2 TDs, both of which came within the first 4 weeks
  • DEN allows the 15th least DK pts to TEs (12.5)