Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Buccaneers S Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) did not practice Wednesday and is expected to miss at least two weeks.
- The Lions have a slew of key injuries heading into Week 2, none more important than OT Penei Sewell (ankle). Sewell rolled his ankle in camp and aggravated the injury in Week 1. It currently appears to be a minor injury, but one to keep an eye on, nonetheless.
- There are a few spots every week where we can be fairly certain of a player’s success (last week gave us Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and the Texans offense) – Amon-Ra St. Brown is in one of those spots this week.
- This game has the best chance of developing into a game environment you had to have a piece of on this slate.
- The Buccaneers were fourth in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in their Week 1 trouncing of the Commanders, finishing with a pass rate 8.0% lower than their 2023 average.
How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
My primary takeaway from watching the Buccaneers play in Week 1 was the dynamism of the offense under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. I liked the layering of routes and his ability to get his playmakers in space or in mismatches. What I didn’t like was extremely low play-action usage (11.8%) and a slow pace of play (29th-ranked 33.1 seconds per play). Cohen’s unpredictability as far as run-blocking schemes and play designs should do wonders for this team’s offensive efficiency, but I would like to see him layer in more play action for attacking downfield and in the flat to assist in generating space. No telling if or when that will come. Suffice to say, his first game calling plays for the Buccaneers was a smashing success against a poor Commanders team.
I saw some really good blocking designs from Coen in Week 1, but both Rachaad White and rookie Bucky Irving failed to create much on their own. White forced just one missed tackle on 15 carries with a pedestrian 1.93 yards after contact per attempt, while Irving did not force a single missed tackle on nine carries with a poor 1.56 yards after contact per attempt. Scheme – good. Individual performances – bad.
Furthermore, the Lions are expecting to get nose tackle DJ Reader on the field for the first time with his new franchise. Reader has been one of the most consistent nose tackles in the league since 2017. This is a really difficult spot on paper. White saw a solid 70% snap rate against the Commanders but managed just 31 yards on 15 carries. That said, he erupted for a solid 6-75 line through the air on six targets. Rookie Bucky Irving gained 62 yards on his nine carries and tacked on an additional 14 yards on two receptions.
Coen will be put to a much stiffer test in Week 2 against these Lions, a defense that is expected to play tons of man coverage. The Lions were near the top of the league in Cover-1 utilization rate a season ago and utilized it at a 37.3% clip in Week 1 against the Rams, good for the third-highest rate to open the season. Tampa Bay surprisingly saw very little Cover-1 coverage in 2023, but Mike Evans led the way in efficiency against that primary coverage with 0.53 FP/RR.
But this spot is also an intriguing one for rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan against secondary coverage from man. There’s no doubt Aaron Glenn will be ready for Evans and no doubt Carlton Davis will be up for the challenge after spending so much time with Evans in Tampa Bay, making McMillan an interesting bet to be the ignition source for this game environment.
Mayfield just missed McMillan on a walk-in touchdown down the sideline in the first quarter last week before connecting with him on a post route in the fourth quarter. What’s most impressive to me from McMillan is the fact he was on a route at a 100% clip in his first game as a professional, while holding a massive 18.0 aDOT. The talk about game-breaking upside should start here.
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