XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 1 is in the books and we’re off to Week 2, starting with the Bills visiting the Dolphins on Thursday night. This game has a juicy 49-point total with Miami favored by a point and a half, so Vegas is expecting a close, high-scoring game. Let’s see if we can figure this one out. 

Buffalo

We’ll start with the visiting Bills. In Week 1, James Cook played 61% of the snaps and handled 19 carries while also catching 3 of 3 targets. Worth noting here is that the Bills ran just 56 offensive plays (and 33 of them were run plays even though they were behind throughout the entire first half), making Cook’s 22 opportunities look even more impressive. Just a 61% snap share implies some risk to the profile, and I’d take the under on him maintaining an average of 22 opportunities per game unless the snap count comes up. At $9k, you kind of need him to keep that 20+ opportunity workload to justify his salary, especially with Allen stealing so many touchdowns (Allen had nine carries and two scores and out-carried Cook 5-3 in the red zone). Cook’s usage and his team’s offense give him ceiling but he’s overpriced for his median outcome here. I’m (almost) never going to X out a team’s RB1 in tournaments but I’m not especially excited to play Cook here and will likely end up underweight. Behind Cook, Ty Johnson played 23% of the snaps with three opportunities, while rookie Ray Davis played 10% of the snaps with four opportunities. Over the course of the season, I expect Davis’ role to grow at Johnson’s expense, but right now both are only MME dart throws as long as they’re sharing the RB2 role. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Bills surprised me last week with rookie Keon Coleman leading the wide receivers in snaps (73%) and targets (5). Keep in mind, the Bills only attempted 23 passes, but I was expecting Khalil Shakir to have the biggest role, and instead, Shakir was only a 53% snap rate player (and 3 targets, including a score). We also saw Mack Hollins play a significant role with 58% of the snaps, while Curtis Samuel surprisingly barely played (27%) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling rounded out the wide receiver corps with a small 21% snap share role. Tight end was dominated by Dalcon Kincaid at 84% of the snaps with Dawson Knox at 58% and Quintin Morris at 10% – thus the Bills had 2 TEs on the field roughly half the time.

Week 2 Reminder

Now is the point where I note that this is only Week 2, and we have to be careful not to overreact to Week 1. Will these trends continue? I have no idea. But what I do know is that most projection systems are going to project that whatever happened in Week 1 will likely continue in Week 2. For example, Curtis Samuel will project pretty poorly. So, if you want to bet that the Bills will run things differently in Week 2, there’s generally an ownership discount on players who sucked in Week 1. Overall I’d expect the main guys here to be Kincaid, Coleman, and Shakir. I’d expect Samuel to ramp up a bit as the season goes on (he had a preseason injury he was recovering from), but I don’t know if we’re going to see a massive jump for Samuel just in one week. I would view this as the main trio being the most attractive pieces and everyone else being a punt play. Samuel is significantly overpriced for what we saw in Week 1 and is thus enormously risky, but all of Kincaid // Shakir // Coleman are very underpriced and are attractive value options in the mid-range. The field can see this too, of course, so expect them to be popular, though the three of them being priced so closely together will somewhat spread out ownership. I’ll personally just lean towards whoever is the lowest owned and let the field somewhat dictate my stance, but I want exposure to all of them. 

Miami

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Raiders offense looked great in Week 1 from a play-calling and schematic standpoint. On the other hand, the execution . . . not so great.
• The Raiders appear committed to a running back by committee approach.
• Rookie tight end Brock Bowers led the Raiders in targets and should continue to be a focal point of the offense, along with superstar wide receiver Davante Adams.
• Las Vegas was exposed on the ground in Week 1 by JK Dobbins and the Chargers offense.
• Baltimore is set for their home opener after a 10-day rest since their opening night loss to the Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
• The Ravens appear to have a dynamic duo at the tight end position with Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Teams will be forced to “pick their poison” with these matchup nightmares.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders offense was fun to watch from a coaching lens in Week 1. As Hilow pointed out, offensive coordinator Luke Getsy did a nice job of creating layered route concepts and utilized motion at a very high rate. They also have an exciting corps of skill players with Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and Tre Tucker all presenting skill sets that can make plays in multiple areas of the field. The Raiders offensive line is solid and can open up holes, while their backfield talent is serviceable. By all accounts, this should be a pretty solid offense. They struggled, however, in their season opening loss to the Chargers and now travel cross country for round 2 against the Harbaugh family.

Las Vegas had a slightly positive pass rate over expectation in Week 1 despite a low scoring game that was within one score for the first three quarters. Unable to generate much of a running game, the Raiders were held to 3.2 yards per carry by a rejuvenated Chargers defense. Alexander Mattison crashed the Zamir White party and out-snapped him while making some plays in the passing game. This week the Raiders face a Baltimore defense that held the Chiefs under four yards per rush attempt in Week 1 and was top-10 in that category last year as well. Baltimore is always a tough place to play and the Ravens defense is unlikely to be the spot where Las Vegas get their running game going, meaning they are likely going to be forced into a similar game plan this week to what they did in Week 1. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as the plan was great but they will need to be much more efficient and execute better to have any chance against the team that was best in the NFL during the 2023 regular season. There is very little margin for error here.

The Raiders have talent, but speed is a bit lacking. The Chiefs exposed the Ravens with the speed of Xavier Worthy and the underneath route running of Rashee Rice. Expect Las Vegas to try to use Tre Tucker’s speed and Brock Bowers’ ability to make plays in space as ways to generate offense and potentially big plays in low-risk ways. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are terrific route runners and may be able to make plays in the middle of the field, but their lack of downfield threats (or a quarterback who can hit those threats) will likely make that route more difficult for the Raiders than it was for the Chiefs. Expect Baltimore and their aggressive defensive scheme to throw the kitchen sink at Minshew, who has a propensity for costly sacks and turnovers. The Raiders are facing an uphill battle and will likely need to show an improved running game and an ability to hit on a couple of big plays to have a chance of staying close in this one.

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This is a low total game between two teams who favor the run
• The Chargers backfield was a near-even timeshare last week, but J.K. Dobbins vastly outperformed Gus Edwards
• The Panthers backfield was also a timeshare, albeit in a blowout loss that makes it difficult to predict future usage
• Neither team had a WR get 50 yards in Week 1
• Joshua Palmer was the only WR on either team to play above 70% of the snaps
• No WR on either team saw more than seven targets
• Bryce Young looks Zach “frightened child” Wilson bad

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The 1-0 Chargers come into Week 2 fresh off an ugly win over the hapless Raiders. Regardless of how the win looked, it counts, and Jim Harbaugh must be pleased with the outcome of his first game as the Chargers head coach. The Chargers had a lot of new faces on offense and were one of the teams with the most questions surrounding how they would use their personnel. Week 1 gave us a good look at how they wanted to play since even though the game might look a little lopsided on the scoreboard (22-10), it was close (9-7) going into the 4th quarter, meaning most of the game was played with a neutral game script. The backfield looks like a mess. Just as everyone predicted, J.K. Dobbins has the highest snap share (58%), with Gus Edwards (42%) nipping at his heels. Edwards barely led the way in carries (11) over Dobbins (10), but Dobbins was much more effective, turning his ten carries into 135 yards and a score versus 26 scoreless yards for Edwards. Dobbins also saw more targets (3) than Edwards (1). Even though Dobbins hit for a big week, if the Charger’s long-term backfield usage remains a near 50/50 split, it’s going to be a tough situation for fantasy. The Chargers’ WR room was up in the air coming into Week 1. Joshua Palmer got the most snaps (81%), followed by Quentin Johnson (67%) and Ladd McConkey (67%). Their usage didn’t match up with their playing time. McConkey saw the most targets (7), followed by Johnson (5), with Palmer (4) looking like a third wheel.

Greg Roman played like, well, Greg Roman in his first game, calling the plays for the Bolts. The Chargers were methodical (19th in pace) and favored the run (24th in pass rate over expectations). They barely threw more (53% pass rate) than they ran (46% run rate), and since this game was close throughout, we can infer this is what a typical game plan will probably look like this season. There seemed to be a league-wide trend of favoring the run in Week 1, with only three teams (Bengals/Chiefs/Rams) posting a PROE above 5% and a whopping 24 teams posting a negative PROE value. That might be small sample size noise, or it might be a reaction to the way teams like the Lions and 49ers have been winning on offense. There is nothing that stands out about the Chargers’ numbers from Week 1. They played at a below-average pace, threw the ball at a below-average rate, spread the ball out between their WRs, and used their two lead RBs in a timeshare. It didn’t look pretty, but it got the job done. Add that the Panthers got whacked (23rd in yards allowed per carry) on the ground, and there is no reason to expect anything different from the Chargers in Week 2.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Four members of the Saints’ defense did not practice Wednesday: DT Khalen Saunders, S Tyrann Mathieu, CB Marshon Lattimore, and LB D’Marco Jackson.
• Saints TE Foster Moreau (concussion) practiced in a limited fashion Wednesday, meaning he is progressing well through the league’s concussion protocol (a player must be asymptomatic prior to returning to a limited session).
• The big name on Dallas’ injury report on Wednesday is clearly TE Jake Ferguson, who did not practice with a “mild MCL sprain.” His diagnosis is both fortunate and interesting considering he thought he tore his ACL on Sunday.
• The ultimate path of this game environment likely comes down to Klint Kubiak’s ability to scheme around expected pressure from the Dallas front, because we know Derek Carr turns into a pumpkin when under pressure.
• That’s important because we expect the Cowboys to achieve offensive success while playing at home, where they amassed a ridiculous 36.8 points per game in 2023.

How nEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::

Flat out, the Saints offense looked legit good in Week 1. Yes, the Panthers were asleep at the wheel, but damn, this offense looked legit good. The Saints ranked first in pre-snap motion rate and third in play-action rate in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s first crack at offensive-coordinator duties since his one-year stint in Minnesota in 2021. Individual play designs were in keeping with his coaching pedigree and blood lines, with layered routes designed to simultaneously elongate the opposing defense in both the vertical and horizontal planes as well as place his skill-position players in space with the football moving upfield. He had a solid mix of situational play calls and an intricate run design that also leveraged his play designs through the air.

It was honestly very refreshing to see out of an offense that had gotten stale under Pete Carmichael. And then they add this gambit that is Taysom Hill, who continued to be aligned all over the formation, in addition to fullback Adam Prentice. Hill took snaps under center (from shotgun), halfback, fullback, in the slot, and out wide. He can block, run routes, leak, throw, run the football – it’s legit impressive as a student of the game. He’s asked to do things that quarterbacks do, that tight ends do, that running backs do, and that fullbacks do, and he does it all pretty well. Most notably from a personnel standpoint, the Saints’ starting tight end was Foster Moreau, who played 77% of the offensive snaps compared to just 35% for Juwan Johnson, which is likely to be attributable to Johnson’s offseason foot injury that required surgery. 

On the defensive side of the ball, defensive coordinator Joe Woods brought the heat against Young and the Panthers, with nickel corner Alontae Taylor recording a whopping three sacks on unique nickel blitzes on key downs. Finally, the Saints scored on each of their first nine possessions before Jake Heaner entered the game at quarterback with just under seven minutes to play in the fourth quarter against the Panthers, and they never stopped dialing up excellent offensive plays until that time. This offense 100% can be counted on to push game environments moving forward – that is, for as long as their below average offensive line holds up (we know the deal with quarterback Derek Carr and his splits when kept clean versus under pressure).

Starting running back Alvin Kamara had a useful box score, but the underlying metrics continue to tell a different story. His 2.60 yards after contact per attempt and two total missed tackles forced do leave a lot to be desired from an efficiency standpoint, but he did catch all five targets for an additional 27 yards. I think that’s kind of the deal with Kamara moving forward – he’s likely to return a solid weekly floor without clear paths to ceiling. He did, however, see 20 running back opportunities on 34 offensive snaps, good for one of the top touch-to-snap ratios amongst running backs in Week 1. It’s just that Kamara’s trademark twitch and burst have largely dried up at this point in his career. 

The matchup against the Cowboys is worse on paper than we’ve grown accustomed to over the previous couple seasons due to a defensive coordinator change that has this team running much more zone coverages, including elevated rates of Cover-4/quarters and Cover-6. More eyes in the backfield and defensive backs in the middle of the field typically reduce the chances for explosive plays on the ground to develop, which is backed up by Jerome Ford’s metrics in this matchup from Week 1. Ford managed just 2.25 yards after contact per attempt and no breakaway runs against the Cowboys to open the season. The vertical component of Kubiak’s offense should result in the opportunity for New Orleans backs to be efficient on their early-down touches, even though this defense held Cleveland to just 3.86 yards per carry. Prentice and Jamaal Williams should each mix in for 30-40% of the offensive snaps in this “jumbo-based” offense.

That same “jumbo-based” personnel offense made it so WR3 Cedrick Wilson played just 44% of the offensive snaps while the three primary skill=position players in near every-down roles were Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and tight end Foster Moreau. Shaheed had a very Shaheedian game in Week 1, converting five targets into three receptions for 73 yards and a score, but he also had an additional end-zone target on a deep ball that was broken up down the sideline in the second quarter that could have made his game much bigger than it already was. He also somewhat quietly tied for the team lead in targets with Kamara on a day Derek Carr attempted only 23 passes. A 75% route-participation rate leaves him with a scary-low floor when he’s not connecting on these deep passes, which is a tough sell against a Cowboys defense capable of generating organic pressure in the backfield without the need for massive blitz rates. 

Which brings us back to Derek Carr and his splits when kept clean versus when under pressure. Yeah, this could be one of those games where errant Carr appears due to pressure in the backfield. Olave remains the WR1 on this team with an 83.3% route participation, but he saw just two targets in Week 1 with an aDOT of just 6.0. He ran a solid route tree on tape, so there doesn’t appear to be a reason for panic just yet. The big picture is that this pass offense should remain relatively concentrated amongst Olave, Shaheed, Kamara, and whatever tight end is the primary option on a given week. From an efficiency standpoint, Olave led the team in targets per route run (TPRR) (0.26) and fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) (0.41) against zone coverage in 2023, but this offense is so different that a lot of that should be considered noise at this point.

How DALLAS Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Buccaneers S Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) did not practice Wednesday and is expected to miss at least two weeks.
• The Lions have a slew of key injuries heading into Week 2, none more important than OT Penei Sewell (ankle). Sewell rolled his ankle in camp and aggravated the injury in Week 1. It currently appears to be a minor injury, but one to keep an eye on, nonetheless.
• There are a few spots every week where we can be fairly certain of a player’s success (last week gave us Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and the Texans offense) – Amon-Ra St. Brown is in one of those spots this week.
• This game has the best chance of developing into a game environment you had to have a piece of on this slate.
• The Buccaneers were fourth in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in their Week 1 trouncing of the Commanders, finishing with a pass rate 8.0% lower than their 2023 average.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

My primary takeaway from watching the Buccaneers play in Week 1 was the dynamism of the offense under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. I liked the layering of routes and his ability to get his playmakers in space or in mismatches. What I didn’t like was extremely low play-action usage (11.8%) and a slow pace of play (29^th-ranked 33.1 seconds per play). Cohen’s unpredictability as far as run-blocking schemes and play designs should do wonders for this team’s offensive efficiency, but I would like to see him layer in more play action for attacking downfield and in the flat to assist in generating space. No telling if or when that will come. Suffice to say, his first game calling plays for the Buccaneers was a smashing success against a poor Commanders team.

I saw some really good blocking designs from Coen in Week 1, but both Rachaad White and rookie Bucky Irving failed to create much on their own. White forced just one missed tackle on 15 carries with a pedestrian 1.93 yards after contact per attempt, while Irving did not force a single missed tackle on nine carries with a poor 1.56 yards after contact per attempt. Scheme – good. Individual performances – bad. 

Furthermore, the Lions are expecting to get nose tackle DJ Reader on the field for the first time with his new franchise. Reader has been one of the most consistent nose tackles in the league since 2017. This is a really difficult spot on paper. White saw a solid 70% snap rate against the Commanders but managed just 31 yards on 15 carries. That said, he erupted for a solid 6-75 line through the air on six targets. Rookie Bucky Irving gained 62 yards on his nine carries and tacked on an additional 14 yards on two receptions. 

Coen will be put to a much stiffer test in Week 2 against these Lions, a defense that is expected to play tons of man coverage. The Lions were near the top of the league in Cover-1 utilization rate a season ago and utilized it at a 37.3% clip in Week 1 against the Rams, good for the third-highest rate to open the season. Tampa Bay surprisingly saw very little Cover-1 coverage in 2023, but Mike Evans led the way in efficiency against that primary coverage with 0.53 FP/RR. 

But this spot is also an intriguing one for rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan against secondary coverage from man. There’s no doubt Aaron Glenn will be ready for Evans and no doubt Carlton Davis will be up for the challenge after spending so much time with Evans in Tampa Bay, making McMillan an interesting bet to be the ignition source for this game environment. 

Mayfield just missed McMillan on a walk-in touchdown down the sideline in the first quarter last week before connecting with him on a post route in the fourth quarter. What’s most impressive to me from McMillan is the fact he was on a route at a 100% clip in his first game as a professional, while holding a massive 18.0 aDOT. The talk about game-breaking upside should start here. 

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Jordan Love had the league’s fifth deepest intended air years per attempt (9.2) in Week 1, something I expect will shrink drastically with Malik Willis under center.
• Expect more schemed usage to the team’s primary “YAC” players – Jordan Reed, Josh Jacobs, and potentially tight end Tucker Kraft.
• Both teams are coming off an opening weekend loss and really need to notch something in the win column in Week 2.
• The Colts came out of Week 1 with some poorly timed injuries, as all of S Julian Blackmon (shoulder), DT DeForest Buckner (back), and DE Kwity Paye (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday.
• While this game clearly has the individual talent to ignite a game environment, the likeliest scenario leaves both teams starting with more reserved tendencies.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Head coach Shane Steichen is going to place this team in position to be competitive all season and Anthony Richardson has that dawg in him. As long as Richardson remains healthy, this team is going to be fun to watch. That said, their offense looked way worse on tape than their box score would indicate. The team managed just seven points in the first half in their Week 1 game against the Texans, the passing yardage totals were a bit fluky, and they held possession of the football for only 20 minutes. Furthermore, 171 of Richardon’s 212 pass yards came on three insanely unrepeatable deep plays – a 60-yard touchdown heave to Alec Pierce from his back foot that Richardson might be the only quarterback alive who can make, a 54-yard touchdown on a crosser route over the middle of the field to Ashton Dulin, who shook off the defender at the point of reception and outran the safeties for the score, and then 57-yard “throw it up and pray” completion to Alec Pierce on the team’s final possession. Yes, splash plays count and this team should generate them with Richardson at quarterback, but the rest of the game looked fairly mundane from this offensive unit. Richardson had a few bad overthrows, one of which was intercepted at the end of the first half, and a couple of others that were bad misses to his primary target in Michael Pittman. With Richardson having so few starts on his ledger dating back to high school, and really only three starts with Steichen, the offense should improve as the season progresses, but we might be waiting on that team-wide upside to develop.

Against a Packers team that continues to get bullied on the ground, and with a quarterback that has such an extreme range of outcomes from play to play, it would make sense for the Colts to bias their attack to a ground game on the back of Jonathan Taylor. The problem is that the offensive line did not look good on tape and Taylor struggled with consistency in the team’s first game. His 48 rush yards are accentuated by zero missed tackles forced, a weak 1.81 yards after contact per attempt, and a game-long of just seven yards. What was most interesting to me with his performance in Week 1 was that 15 of his 16 carries came behind zone run-blocking principles. This offensive line is supposed to be one of the strengths of this team after it returned all five starters from a team that found immense success in that area a season ago, but I didn’t see it on tape. Taylor is no stranger to running behind zone concepts so this might be a case of poor situational play calling and continuous long down-and-distance to-go situations, something that can change from week to week. The Packers utilized an interesting mix of defensive alignments in Week 1 against the Eagles, with 35.8% played from Cover-4/quarters and Cover-6, 30.8% played from Cover-3, and a very un-Packers-like 25.6% Cover-1. It will be up to Steichen to keep this team out of predictable situations that lead to an expected decrease in efficiency.

Forget the box score, this pass offense left a lot to be desired in Week 1. One of the most glaring “tip of the hand” examples that I saw from the Colts tape was the directional personnel tendencies. For example, almost every play in the game run from 11-personnel was a pass play while almost every play run from jumbo was a rush. Adonai Mitchell served as the WR3 and played just 64% of the offensive snaps yet was in a route at a 95% clip. You simply can’t be that predictable in the NFL. Michael Pittman also ran a predictable route tree largely comprised of the 4-6 routes. I wanted to see more layering and unpredictability in route structure, which is concerning after Richardson was healthy throughout the preseason (making it less likely that the route structure was due to limited repetitions). In any case, the Colts have a lot of work to do to become more consistent, not only from game to game but from drive to drive. Enough with the negative because some of their play designs were schemed well. They had a solid amount of pre-snap motion and play action, but they will need their run game to be more effective before those tendencies truly matter. The good news is their opponent in Week 2 could provide the launching pad for that to be the case.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Browns emerged from their Week 1 game with numerous key injuries.
• OG Joel Bitonio (elbow) and OT Jack Conklin (knee) were limited in practice on Wednesday while TE David Njoku (ankle) and OT Jedrick Wills (knee) did not practice at all. Njoku has already been ruled out for Week 2 with a high ankle sprain. Both Wills and Conklin did not play in Week 1.
• The Browns also placed four players on injured reserve: LB Mohamoud Diabate, LB Tony Fields, DT Maurice Hurst, and S Juan Thornhill.
• Deshaun Watson held the football far too long in Week 1, leaving their first game with a 30^th-ranked time to throw.
• The Jaguars were in complete control of the Week 1 game against the Dolphins until an end-of-third-quarter fumble by Travis Etienne at the two with a 17-7 lead.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The injury woes continue in Cleveland as the team is already dealing with numerous significant injuries. Both starting tackles did not play in Week 1, LG Joel Bitonio emerged from Week 1 with an elbow injury and was limited in practice Wednesday. Four defensive players were placed on injured reserve following their first game, and tight end David Njoku has already been ruled out for Week 2 with a high ankle sprain. And then there’s Deshaun Watson. Off-the-field distractions continue as yet another civil lawsuit was filed this week alleging sexual misconduct, prompting growing discussions surrounding potential outs in the contract language. And I’m not sure what’s going on with Watson’s health because he continues to play like complete doodoo; immobility in the pocket, happy feet, poor diagnostics, holding the football too long, and weaker arm/shoulder strength than Grandma Dolores on Thanksgiving, tossing up pick-sixes to uncle Dave on badly underthrown footballs. The offensive line concerns and poor mechanics from Watson are sure to influence Kevin Stefanski’s game plan here, while Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen’s performance against the high-flying Dolphins offense during the opening weekend also stands as a likely influence. I would expect Stefanski to approach this one with a bit of caution, not trying to go out and blow away the fastest defense in the league and instead trying to slow the game down, shake off the apparent rust, sustain drives, and keep Watson out of long down and distance situations (where he really struggled in Week 1).

Jerome Ford understandably handled the bulk of the work in the Cleveland backfield with Nick Chubb still recovering from his gruesome knee injury suffered in 2023, parlaying a 75% snap rate into 12 carries for 44 yards and a score and a 6-25 receiving line on seven targets. The touchdown came on the team’s final possession against the Cowboys with under 30 seconds remaining and the game out of hand, but the borderline elite snap rate and opportunity share (79.2%) led to the fourth most expected fantasy points in Week 1 (22.0). Expect Ford to be backed up by Pierre Strong as he was last week in a strict change-of-pace role. The matchup is far from ideal considering the injuries along the offensive line and the speed of the Jaguars defense, a unit that held Miami to just 3.2 yards per carry last week, but that type of workload is notable, particularly considering his salary in Week 2. One thing to note here is just how reliant running backs are on touchdowns for fantasy production, which is something I feel the field has largely up and forgotten in recent years. Yes, pure volume is most correlated to fantasy production at the position, but the second highest correlation for fantasy production at running back is touchdowns. That’s important considering the Browns are implied for just 19.25 points, which is about the same as the Malik Willis-led Packers, below the Giants and Commanders, and slightly above the Patriots and Panthers. Finally, Ford forced just two missed tackles in Week 1 and had just 2.25 yards after contact per attempt.

Watson’s Week 1 performance was about as poor as they come, and that isn’t hyperbole. He threw two picks, took six sacks, managed just 3.8 yards per attempt, threw four interceptable passes, and put up laughable marks in completion rate when under pressure (23.1%) and play action completion rate (9.1%). But at least Stefanski was dialing it up – Watson’s aDOT on nine play action dropbacks was a ridiculous 21.0 yards downfield. There are obviously numerous things for this offense to clean up, the first of which should be getting the ball out of Watson’s hands quicker after a 30^th-ranked time to throw (3.12 seconds) in Week 1. The offense operated with extreme rates of 11-personnel against the Cowboys. With only one tight end currently on the active roster with Njoku ruled out, I tentatively expect that trend to continue (yeah, they’ll bring somebody up from the practice squad), which does not help in their quest to protect Watson. That said, the Jaguars forced the second lowest pressure rate against the Dolphins in Week 1, behind only the Panthers, forcing two sacks, just one hurry, and three pressures. Even so, Stefanski will need to get the ball out of Watson’s hands at a quicker rate for this offense to sustain success.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The status of 49ers’ RB Christian McCaffrey is likely one of the choke points for this slate.
• Here’s what we know – Kyle Shanahan will not place McCaffrey on injured reserve, as he practiced in a limited fashion both Wednesday and Thursday and NFL Insider Ian Rapoport speculated that McCaffrey “is a longshot to play this weekend.”
• Vikings WR Jordan Addison aggravated a high-ankle sprain in Week 1 and has yet to practice this week, as of Thursday – I expect him to miss Week 2.
• LB Andrew Van Ginkel (foot) also did not practice on Wednesday for the Vikings, both players representing potential massive losses on each side of the ball.
• The Vikings’ retooled secondary looked good in Week 1, with cornerbacks Byron Murphy and Stephon Gilmore living up to their name value to this point.
• The 49ers are a solid bet to reach 30 points scored every time they take the field.

How SAN FRANCISCO Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers continued their steady Eddie production on Monday Night Football to begin their season, scoring more than 30 points for the 15^th time in their last 25 regular-season games with Brock Purdy under center. They did so through a heavy reliance on Jordan Mason and Deebo Samuel in Week 1, feeding the two a combined 46 (!!!) carries plus targets. That is absurd. But the thing is, this week’s spot sets up well for a repeat of that performance and reliance against a Vikings defense that utilized zone coverage a ridiculous 81.6% of their snaps and two-high alignments a ridiculous 83.7% of their snaps. 

That included a ton of Cover-2 and Cover-4 alignments. Against two-high last season, Samuel ranked third in the league in FP/RR at 0.72 and there was a massive gap between him and Brandon Aiyuk (0.49) and George Kittle (0.33). He also continues to see increased usage out of the backfield and schemed short-area targets with McCaffrey absent. We legitimately could see another combined 40-45 opportunities between Mason and Deebo this week.

Mason filled in admirably for McCaffrey in Week 1, seeing all but three running back snaps while taking 28 carries for 147 yards and a score on the ground and catching his only target for five yards. This is a much more difficult matchup on paper than the one against the Jets, as the Vikings held opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry in 2023 before holding the Giants to 3.5 yards per carry in their opener, something that could be influenced by the presence (or absence) of linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel this week. Vikings nose tackle Harrison Phillips has had an up-and-down career in run-stopping metrics, and this 49ers run scheme is far different than the vanilla schemes deployed by the Giants. In other words, the on-paper matchup looks much more difficult, but this run game is one that can, and will, succeed against almost any team in the league. If CMC remains out, expect another robust workload for Mason here.

Brian Flores is a master of unique blitz packages, something that Kyle Shanahan is likely to view as a reason to have Kittle in on protection or chips at an elevated rate. These two teams played in Week 7 last season and the Vikings held the 49ers to just 17 points in a San Francisco loss, but that game was played without Samuel and Justin Jefferson. In that game, Kittle led the team in receiving with 78 yards but was kept into block at an elevated rate, while Jauan Jennings led the team with nine targets. 

With Deebo healthy, I expect a clear path to eight to 10 targets with room for eight to 10 carries. The heavy zone usage from the Vikings, in addition to the retooled secondary, should largely force the 49ers to march the field while diminishing the chances for splash plays to develop. Brandon Aiyuk played just 60% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 while on a strict snap restriction, something that should jump up to a more natural 80-85% rate in Week 2. 

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Ryan Grubb’s play designs were really strong on the ground and left a lot to be desired through the air in his first game as offensive coordinator for the Seahawks, which is almost the exact opposite of what we were expecting coming into the season.
• The strength of each of these teams in Week 1 was their respective run games, something that places a damper on the overall game environment.
• Rhamondre Stevenson ranked third in yards after contact per attempt, first in missed tackles forced, and second in runs of 10+ yards in Week 1, gaining 118 of his 120 yards on the ground after contact.
• New England’s “throwback” defensive philosophy led to the highest rate of Cover-2 in Week 1. Noah Fant led the Seahawks in FP/RR a season ago and saw a significant bump in route participation in Week 1 (75%).
• There aren’t any clear paths for this game environment to erupt, the Patriots are not a good team, and they utilized a ridiculous rotation of pass catchers in Week 1. Stay away. Stay far, far away.
• Patriots left guard Sidi Sow missed Week 1 with an ankle injury and is expected to miss Week 2 as well.
• Seahawks RT George Fant and RB Kenneth Walker are currently thought to be day-to-day, although I’m writing this prior to the release of the first injury report this week.

How SEATTLE Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks did not look good in Week 1. Geno Smith was inconsistent and indecisive, we saw a lower rate of 11-personnel than we assumed coming into the season, and the offensive-line play was brutal. To that end, Seattle came into the season with innumerable question marks along the offensive line and Week 1 did this unit no favors in squashing those uncertainties. And then there was that bit about them giving up two safeties, which I don’t know if I’ve ever seen in an NFL game before. The first came on an offensive holding call from the end zone while the second came on a Zach Charbonnet carry from the one-yard line. Their possessions in the first half against the Broncos went like this: Sack on first play of game, interception on next play, three-and-out, three-and-out, field goal, safety, muffed punt return and lost fumble, 34-yard Geno Smith rushing touchdown, safety, three-and-out. Woof. They shook off that nightmare with scores on their first three possessions of the second half (two touchdowns and a field goal, with with Walker scoring on a play that was called back due to offensive holding that resulted in the field goal) largely on the back of Walker.

In total, the offense was dead even in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and ended Week 1 with a 28^th-ranked 45.0% pass rate, which speaks volumes to how poorly the Broncos performed more than as some indictment on new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. One thing that Grubb can likely improve upon moving forward is his situational play-calling tendencies after the Seahawks routinely found themselves behind the sticks, achieving a first down via rush only 26.32% of the time.

The tape showed an intricate run scheme that utilized a nice mix of man and zone concepts, routinely pulling a complete side of the offensive line to generate massive gap runs to the strong side in addition to down-blocking for weak side runs. Overall I was pretty impressed with the run game and Grubb’s run scheme. The concepts and run play designs combined with Walker’s borderline elite talent on the ground to overcome an offensive line not yet playing as a cohesive unit. Walker forced the third-most missed tackles in Week 1 (eight, behind only Rhamondre Stevenson on the other side of this game and Jordan Mason) and amassed a solid 3.35 yards after contact per attempt, gaining 67 of his 103 yards on the ground after first contact. He also had three carries over 10 yards and two breakaway runs of 15 or more yards. The one thing that continues to hold Walker back from true workhorse status is his poor pass-blocking mechanics after grading out as the 46^th-ranked running back (of 50 qualified backs – side note, Jonathan Taylor surprisingly ranked 50^th) in pass protection in Week 1. As for how we expect the Seahawks to approach this game, it should not be understated what the losses of Matthew Judon and Christian Barmore mean to the core of this defense. The team went from first in the league in yards allowed per carry in 2023 (3.3) to allowing an 18^th-ranked 4.4 yards per carry in Week 1… against the Bengals. I would expect another game plan that focuses on the run for as long as the Seahawks can maintain control of the game environment. 

And then there was the pass game. The tape left a lot to be desired for Grubb’s pass offense in Week 1. Routes were flat and by the book, there was little pre-snap motion, and the team utilized play action on just 14.3% of Geno’s dropbacks (four snaps). I honestly was expecting quite a bit more here and was left feeling underwhelmed. DK Metcalf (88% snap rate), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (79%), Noah Fant (75%), and Tyler Lockett (54% due to nagging injury) remain the key cogs through the air for the Seahawks, with the biggest pleasant surprise there being tight end Noah Fant. Fant was on a route at a 75% clip and saw a non-terrible 16% target share in Week 1. New England’s defense remains an outside-in coverage unit, one that looks to strangle the deep ball while forcing things to the short-to-intermediate middle of the field in traffic. That could benefit Fant slightly in this matchup. That said, the Seahawks appear to be content to continue to let the game come to them as opposed to being the spark for a game environment, meaning we should expect them to have to be pushed into increased aerial aggression for the time being.

That doesn’t leave a lot of upside for the remaining pass catchers on this offense, particularly considering Christian Gonzalez’s status as a true lockdown, traveling corner in his second professional season. It remains to be seen if Gonzalez travels with Metcalf, although he is coming off a game where he traveled with Ja’Marr Chase against the Bengals, indicating he might be deployed in the same manner here. The Patriots were in Cover-1 (28.6%) and Cover-2 (34.3%) on over 60% of their defensive snaps against the Bengals. Metcalf, Lockett, and Smith-Njigba all ran about 100 routes against Cover-1 last season, with Metcalf leading the way with 0.68 FP/RR, compared to the 0.39 of Lockett and 0.36 of JSN. That said, Lockett saw four targets against Cover-1 in Week 1, putting up 50 yards for a 1.13 FP/RR mark. Cover-2 rates were down throughout the league in 2023, but the Patriots played it at the highest rate of any team in Week 1. It was Fant leading the way for this Seahawks team against Cover-2 last season, putting up 0.49 FP/RR against that primary defensive coverage, reinforcing the potential for Fant to see an uptick in targets in this spot after his bump in route participation last week.

How NEW ENGLAND Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Jets travel to Tennessee on a short week after a deflating Monday night loss to the 49ers.
• Tennessee attempts to rebound from a game they let slip away in their season opener against the Bears.
• Unsurprisingly, the Jets offense appears as though it will flow almost entirely through Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.
• The Jets usually stout defense was embarrassed by the 49ers on the ground as San Francisco consistently ran the ball down their throats.
• The Titans offense was hyped for much of the offseason as a “sleeper” that could surprise everyone, but in Week 1 they remained asleep as they averaged under 4 yards per pass attempt.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets were a trendy pick in 2023, with Aaron Rodgers coming to town and joining a dominant defense. That team was derailed by the season-ending injury that Rodgers sustained in their opening week, but a year later, we got to see in Week 1 that this team has a long way to go to be a “contender.” They were exposed and dominated by the 49ers, who are likely to be one of the top teams in football this year. That doesn’t mean the Jets won’t be competitive, but they are clearly not among the elite at the moment.

The Jets offense was actually solid in a tough matchup, scoring three touchdowns and moving the ball respectably. It was surprisingly their defense that let them down, as they forced a punt on the 49ers opening drive before allowing them to score on nine straight possessions. The matchup this week with the Titans is not the same offensive juggernaut they faced in San Francisco, so the offense should get more opportunities with the ball and some more favorable field positions. The Jets main methods of moving the ball are very clear, as Breece Hall seems likely to be near the top of the league in touches and Garrett Wilson has a legitimate chance to lead the league in targets (or maybe second behind Cooper Kupp). The Jets targeted Wilson 11 times in Week 1, and Rodgers has said publicly multiple times since then that they need to get the ball to Wilson more often. At halftime in San Francisco, Wilson and Hall were the only Jets players with a reception or carry. Both are extremely talented players and deserving of their massive workloads, but the Jets will need others to step up if they are going to do anything this year. Allen Lazard was that player in Week 1, as he scored two touchdowns, although one was in “garbage time,” with Tyrod Taylor in as the quarterback and most of the 49ers starting defenders out of the game.

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The Jets pass rate was under expectation in Week 1 and this week they face a Titans defense that was stout against the Bears in their season opener. Aaron Rodgers’s offenses have been very methodical for most of his career, and despite the second fastest “seconds per snap” rate in Week 1, we should expect the Jets to be a slow-moving unit again this year. Rodgers likes to take his time to make adjustments at the line and the Week 1 stats are largely misleading due to the game script and opponent. The Titans defensive front was good against the run in 2023 and shut down the Bears in Week 1, but the Jets will find various ways to get Hall involved and circumvent that potential obstacle. Ultimately, the Jets offense is going to go as their two young stars go and we should expect a balanced and methodical approach in most games until/unless they are forced out of it.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This game has a middling total which feels like a hedge from Vegas on a game with a wide range of outcomes.
• Daniel Jones was awful last week. Will we see Danny Dimes this week?
• Darius Slayton is currently not practicing due to a concussion. His absence would make Jalin Hyatt a high upside salary saver.
• Devin Singletary dominated backfield touches for the Giants.
• Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler are in a time share.
• Jayden Daniels rushing upside is sky high but his accuracy and decision making were both highly questionable in Week 1.
• Terry McClaurin was the Commanders only full time WR but his time on the field didn’t translate to additional usage.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 0-1 Giants come into Week 2 following a 22-point beat down by the middling Vikings. In a make it or break it year for Brian Daboll, he decided to take over playing call . . . only to score six points in Week 1, the lowest in the league. Making matters worse? He laid that egg at home, and it’s becoming obvious that the New York faithful are losing their patience. Well respected coming into New York, Daboll is starting to look more like a guy who has benefitted from elite talent on the field, not the other way around. When you look at his resume, all his success came coaching Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski (during his stint as a TE coach), Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts (in college), and Josh Allen. That’s quite the list of players to get credit for their performance. It becomes more of an indictment when you look at how Daboll has performed without all-time great players. Daboll struggle as the Jets QB coach (2007-2008) with Chad Pennington and was not retained when they hired Rex Ryan. He was then the Browns OC in 2009 and struggled with Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson (32nd ranked offense). His next stop was in Indy with Colt McCoy and Jake Delhomme (29^th ranked offense), before being released. In 2011, he was the Dolphins OC and struggled with Matt Moore (20^th ranked offense). He was not retained after one season. This run with the Giants was his next chance at succeeding without coaching an all-time great talent. Once again, it’s not going well.

The Giants used their personnel as expected in Week 1. Malik Nabers (100%) never left the field, Darius Slayton (72%), and Wan’Dale Robinson (68%) were the other two starting receivers, while Jalin Hyatt (23%) snuck on the field for a quarter of the snaps. Rookie TE Theo Johnson (86%) was a full-time player, and RB Devin Singletary (70%) was a modern-day work horse, with rookie Tyron Tracy (21%) working in a change of pace role. The Giants played at an above average pace (12^th) but when you factor in that they were chasing points, that doesn’t seem particularly fast. They didn’t seem like they wanted to pass (15^th in PROE) but PROE numbers don’t mean as much in a blowout. Daboll will probably lean into the pass more this week. The Commanders were okay against the run (9^th in yards per carry allowed) but got lit up through the air, allowing Baker Mayfield to throw for 289 yards and four touchdowns on only 30 pass attempts. The Commanders might end up being a team that tilts their opponents to the air this season. Expect the Giants to come out aggressively to try and get the bad taste out of their mouth from last week.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• 2023 rookie sensation Puka Nacua suffered a knee injury in Week 1 and will miss at least the next four games. 
• Cooper Kupp saw an astounding 21 targets and two carries in Week 1 at Detroit.
• Rumors of a split backfield for the Rams proved untrue to start the year as Kyren Williams resumed his workhorse role against the Lions.
• The Rams’ defense effectively took away the middle of the field and shut down Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 1. However, they were burned repeatedly downfield by Jameson Williams and also beaten by the Lions’ running game.
• Arizona let one slip in Buffalo. After a strong start, their offense sputtered and managed only a kickoff-return touchdown in the second half.
• The Cardinals’ defense opened the season by giving up 34 points and are likely to be one that we target all season.

How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

The Rams are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Lions where they did everything they could from a coaching and gameplan standpoint, but a turnover in the red zone and late-game inability to get stops ultimately kept them from getting the victory. The Rams amassed nearly 400 total yards of offense and 26 first downs as they navigated the stout Lions run defense and applied a “death by a million paper cuts” approach that focuses on the short, quick passing game. Williams played nearly every snap, but was held to 50 rushing yards on 18 carries as the Lions once again appeared to have an elite defensive front against the run. The Rams’ offensive line was a little beat up, which made it difficult for them to push the ball downfield even though the Lions’ defense seemed beatable. Once Nacua was knocked out of the game with a knee injury, it became the Cooper Kupp show, as he was the clear engine of their offense.

This week, the Rams have a full week to prepare for the Cardinals and know going in that they will be without Nacua. While this obviously makes Kupp and Williams the centerpieces of their offense, others will have to be more involved this week as well. The Cardinals ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in blitz rate and near the top of the league in zone-coverage rate in 2023. They are a relatively passive defense that encourages their opponents to take their time and matriculate the ball down the field. The Cardinals under Jonathan Gannon have also not been the type of team that drastically alters their game plan for their opponent.

This matchup would seem to fit the Rams’ preferred method of attack perfectly and history would back up that sentiment. These teams met twice last season and the Rams averaged over 400 yards from scrimmage and over 30 points per game in those meetings. Considering the coaching staff on both sides is the same and the personnel is also largely the same (or perhaps worse on the Arizona defensive side), it feels safe to assume the Rams will be able to move the ball well here and red-zone efficiency will end up being the deciding factor in what type of score the Rams put up.

How ARIZONA Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Steelers appear set to start Justin Fields at quarterback for the second consecutive game after a season opening victory over the Falcons. 
• The Broncos are coming off a loss to the Seahawks in which they were unable to create much in the way of offense.
• Pittsburgh used a high rate of “13” and “14” personnel (multiple tight ends) in Week 1 as offensive coordinator Arthur Smith continued his run-heavy ways.
• Denver was gashed on the ground by Kenneth Walker and gave up a touchdown in the passing game to fellow running back Zach Charbonnet.
• TJ Watt and the Pittsburgh defense picked up where they left off in 2023, terrorizing Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense.

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers won their Week 1 game with a steady dose of running the ball and playing elite defense. TJ Watt and their stellar defensive front wreaked havoc on the Falcons and the immobile Kirk Cousins. Next on their list is rookie Bo Nix and the underwhelming Broncos. The Steelers are also likely to start Justin Fields at quarterback for the second consecutive game as Russell Wilson tends to his calf injury. The Steelers stayed true to form in Week 1 as they ranked last in the NFL in pass rate over expectation, instead relying heavily on Najee Harris and their running game along with designed runs and scrambles by Fields. 

This week the Steelers approach seems very straightforward. Jaylen Warren is another week removed from his hamstring injury and may be more involved, while Harris will remain the centerpiece. The Broncos defense gave up a 34 yard touchdown run to 33-year-old Geno Smith last week, which is not a good sign when they have to deal with Fields this week. Likewise, Kenneth Walker was on his way to a monster game before departing with an abdominal injury but Zach Charbonnet made some plays once he took over in the second half including a 30-yard touchdown reception. Given the lack of weapons beyond wide receiver George Pickens in the passing game, it would seem likely that star Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain will follow Pickens all over the field. Considering how risk averse offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is and how the Steelers try to win games, this feels like a spot where they will not force the ball to their star wide receiver. The areas where the Broncos defense was beaten last week were in the running game, on quarterback scrambles, and with secondary receivers. Seattle was able to stay conservative offensively due to the lack of offensive threat that the Broncos presented and the Steelers defense looked elite in Week 1, suggesting that Pittsburgh will be able to approach this game in exactly the manner they want to.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Trouble could be brewing in Cincinnati as the Bengals attempt to regroup from an embarrassing Week 1 loss to the Patriots.
• Cincinnati’s run defense was gashed in their first game since losing multiple key defenders in the off-season.
• The Chiefs offense won a Super Bowl in 2023 despite their offense playing at a mediocre level for Patrick Mahomes standards. In Week 1, they looked as dynamic and explosive as they did at any point last year…. good luck to the rest of the league.
• The Chiefs defense clogged up running lanes for the Baltimore running backs, was able to create pressure in the passing game, and eliminated All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews.
• Bengals star wide receiver Jamar Chase still does not have a new contract, but suited up and played in Week 1. Tee Higgins does not appear close to returning for Cincinnati.
• The Cincinnati offense appears to be starting slow again this year, which is becoming a bit of a trend.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals managed only 224 total yards of offense in their Week 1 loss to the Patriots and were held scoreless for the first 44 minutes of the game. There are a lot of factors that we can point to with the absence of Tee Higgins, the lack of practice for Ja’Marr Chase, and the return from wrist injury for Joe Burrow. However, when we zoom out we can see that the Bengals had similar struggles to start 2023 as they failed to surpass 300 yards of offense in three of their first four games and four of their first six. The Bengals are often thought of as an offensive juggernaut, but this is a team that has had its share of offensive struggles in recent years when playing at less than full strength. Joe Burrow appeared to be holding his wrist throughout their Week 1 game, Ja’Marr Chase is going to take some time to acclimate to full speed after his “hold-in,” and Tee Higgins is on track to miss at least one more game. 

In Week 1, the Bengals led the NFL in PROE (pass rate over expectation) despite averaging over four yards per carry as they seemed set on avoiding a stout Patriots run defense. The Bengals struggled to move the ball in general, and the game moved at a snail’s pace as both teams ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in terms of pace of play for Week 1. This week, however, the Bengals must enter with an entirely different mindset for the Chiefs than they had for the Patriots. Whereas New England was focused on ball control and field position and was never likely to turn things into a shootout, the Chiefs are an explosive unit that can do just that. The high pass rate for Cincinnati in Week 1 was a good sign in terms of their willingness to be aggressive, but one must wonder if they will bring that same approach to Arrowhead. A more balanced approach that focuses on keeping Patrick Mahomes and company off the field seems like the approach Zac Taylor and company could employ in this one. The Chiefs defense bottled up the Ravens running backs in Week 1, and their run defense metrics are misleading because of all the damage that Lamar Jackson did on the ground. Joe Burrow is not Lamar Jackson, and the Bengals can’t rely on his legs to create and sustain offense, so they will likely have to rely more on their ground game.

We should expect the Bengals to get Ja’Marr Chase more involved this week and a heavy emphasis on Zack Moss and a traditional running game. After seeing the success Baltimore had through the air in the short areas with Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely, and Justice Hill, it may also be possible that we see Chase Brown, Andrei Iosivas, and Mike Gesicki get more chances in that area if we assume the Chiefs attempt to scheme Chase away. All things considered, the Bengals are likely going to have to focus on controlling the ball and getting first downs to sustain drives rather than creating explosive plays downfield.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Bears visiting the Texans for a 45.5 total game with Houston favored by 6.5, giving poor Chicago a sub-20 team total. Yikes, just one poor week, and the market completely loses faith in this offense. Is that realistic? Let’s see if we can figure it out.

Chicago

We’ll start on the Chicago side of things, with the run game. New acquisition D’Andre Swift played 70% of the snaps while Khalil Herbert, who was being drafted as the RB2, only played 11%. Travis Homer and Khari Blasingame both played more than Herbert, which was a bit of a surprise. This role only led to 10 carries and 1 target, though keep in mind the Bears only ran 51 plays and failed to score an offensive touchdown. Better things should be ahead for Swift, however, as a significant road underdog and against a Texans defense that was better against the run than the pass last year, this is a hard spot to get really excited about him. You’d be buying him because running backs can always run into positive touchdown variance and because he benefits should Chicago pull off the upset, but I’d really want to limit my exposure to Swift outside of “Bears win” builds. Behind Swift, I don’t know. Travis Homer played the most snaps of the backups and had 2 carries, Herbert had 2 carries, while Blasingame is more of a fullback/blocker type. Homer is $1,000 to Herbert’s $3,600, and at least as of right now, most projection sources have Herbert projected for more points, which should drive ownership his way and makes me want to go a little heavier on Homer in case he usurps the RB2 role at a cheaper price and lower ownership. Homer is also more of a pass-catching back, so if the Texans do indeed win this game, that could result in some increased opportunity. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Bears started the season with what looked like an incredibly talented wide receiver trio of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. After one game, both Allen and Odunze have been hurt and both are listed as questionable. Allen missed practice all week while Odunze returned to a limited practice on Friday, but Allen is of course a veteran and could potentially play without practicing. I haven’t seen any real news here but my lean would be that one of them plays and one of them sits, as the Bears called up one wide receiver from the practice squad (Collin Johnson). DJ Moore should be in for a strong workload no matter what after, seeing eight targets and leading the team in receptions and yardage, and the ultra-talented Moore can of course break any slate. $9k feels too cheap for his talent even if his quarterback did not look impressive in his debut. If Allen plays, he projects as a volume monster – he saw 11 targets in Week 1, though his per-target upside is lower than Moore’s. If Odunze is the one who plays, his role is likely a bit deeper/lower volume, and then DeAndre Carter and Velus Jones will fill out the receiver corps. I don’t think Johnson (the practice squadder) is likely to see the field unless both Allen and Odunze miss, but if one is out, I would definitely have some interest in Carter at $2,000, though the situation here gets a bit tricky. 

Chicago also has two talented pass-catching tight ends in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. Last season Kmet looked to be breaking out, with elite metrics across pretty much every area but in Week 1 he only played 48% of the snaps to Everett’s 61%. Everett played for new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron previously, so it could be a case of Waldron leaning towards who he’s familiar with, but I personally think Kmet is the more talented one. Anyway, the point here is more that if one of Allen or Odunze misses, we could see the Bears run more 12 personnel as the wide receiver depth behind the main trio is not exactly inspiring. So while I would be interested in Carter at $2k, I would really be more interested in the Bears tight ends (Kmet is more talented but Everett is only $2,400, so both would be firmly in play for me). The elephant in the room, of course, is that the entire offense looked awful, but it was also Caleb Williams’ first NFL game and many rookies take time to adjust to this level. Will he adjust in Week 2? I don’t know, but I don’t think it’s wise to dramatically shift from preseason expectations for this offense after just one game. The Bears are awfully cheap because of Week 1, and my overall stance on this game is that they’re a lot better than they looked against the Titans and that they’ll be able to keep this game competitive. 

Houston

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 2 closes out with the Falcons visiting the Eagles for a 46.5 total game with Philly favored by 6. The big news we’re waiting on is on A.J. Brown, who picked up a hamstring injury during practice on Friday and then sat on Saturday. It’s not yet known if the Eagles are just being cautious with their star wide receiver or if he’s in real danger of missing the game, so we’ll just have to wait and see, but I’ll write this up both ways. 

INJURY UPDATE: AJ Brown has been ruled out – more on this below

Update (4 pm Monday): Parris Campbell activated

So, there’s an important consideration for Showdown tonight that I didn’t think of until Pulse mentioned it which is that we have a potentially impactful practice squad callup for the Eagles. That is Parris Campbell. Campbell was in the running for the WR3 job in camp until they signed Dotson – then they cut Campbell but immediately resigned him to the practice squad. He was resting with the starters in the preseason. The reason he matters is that Britain Covey and Johnny Wilson are, to put it kindly, not really NFL-caliber wide receivers – Campbell really makes the most sense as a guy they would call up to actually run routes. Dotson doesn’t have a strong history as a target earner, so Campbell could get some actual, legitimate run at min salary and (probably) modest ownership. The Eagles can only call up 2 guys and they need to call up a center, so 1 other pass catcher is all they can go for. If it’s Campbell, we can expect him to run out of the slot, which kicks Devonta outside…that’s a worse matchup for him, which could result in extra work for Campbell. All of this is a long way to say “if Parris Campbell is active, he’s a very interesting min salary play.” I wouldn’t personally lock him but I think he’ll be very lightly owned as nobody around the industry is writing him up (though I do see him being projected for very modest points in a couple of spots) – somebody I’ll want to be overweight on, for sure.

Atlanta

On the Atlanta side of things, Bijan Robinson finally got the bell cow role he deserves, playing 89% of the snaps (significantly higher than any game in 2023 in which he maxed out at 81%). The Falcons played horribly in Week 1, only scoring a single offensive touchdown against the Steelers while turning the ball over three times and running just 48 offensive plays but Bijan still saw 18 carries and 5 targets . . . that’s right, he touched the ball on just shy of half of Atlanta’s plays. That’s a big role, friends. He’s just shy of Saquon Barkley for the honor of being the highest-salary player in the game but it’s hard to say he doesn’t deserve to be up there with a role like this. The problem is that there are a lot of other strong plays that are priced up, which makes it tough to get to him when the Falcons are significant road underdogs, which I think is likely to keep his ownership suppressed somewhat. The way I see it is that Bijan’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s in this game, but his floor is lower than Saquon and Hurts because it’s entirely possible the Eagles jump out to a big lead and that would suppress his workload (even though he would still retain his passing game role). Behind Bijan, you could play Tyler Allgeier though he would be a thin punt option. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Falcons had an extremely narrow group of players on the field in Week 1. Drake London and Darnell Mooney played 100% and 95% of the snaps, respectively, while Kyle Pitts played 96% at tight end. Ray-Ray McCloud played 54% of the snaps and tight end Charlie Woerner played 41%, basically splitting that role depending on if the Falcons were running 11 or 12 personnel for that play. Backups KhaDarel Hodge and Ross Dwelley each played 2 snaps. That’s right, the entire passing game was basically five guys, which is about as narrow a grouping as I have ever seen when doing Showdown writeups. Frankly, I have a hard time seeing this last for the entire season as it’s just so unusual, but at least for now, we should probably go with what the Falcons have shown us. The problem is that Atlanta’s passing game was a disaster in Week 1, specifically because Kirk Cousins just didn’t look fully recovered from last season’s ACL injury. He didn’t look mobile and they consistently played out of shotgun and pistol formations instead of having Cousins under center. Overall, he just didn’t seem comfortable moving around out there. Against a strong Philly D line, Cousins could be in for another rough day. Falcons believers will just need to hope that Cousins quickly ramps things up. London is the alpha receiver here but only saw 3 targets last week – he’s not really a big play guy so he needs volume in order to pay off. The good news is that Week 1’s dud dropped his Showdown salary from $10,000 all the way to $7,800, and that keeps him firmly in play even if the Falcons passing game isn’t quite a full go. 

TE Kyle Pitts is $6,800, though that’s closer to what we saw from him last year. He caught a touchdown in Week 1 and a lot of analysts have been expecting a breakout this year, but I’m hesitant despite the draft pedigree. Pitts has not really looked good at the NFL level yet, and it’s not like he’s a rookie who’s still adjusting. I think he’ll have a better season this year with the quarterback upgrade, but I’m not sure I buy a full-on breakout into, say, a top-3 tight end. He’s cheap enough to be in play but overall I prefer London to him even at $1k more. Mooney is Atlanta’s deep threat guy but unfortunately, he hasn’t been priced down like the rest of the Falcons. $5,400 is a pretty fair price for a deep threat, low volume WR2-type. If you think the Eagles throttle Atlanta and suppress play volume, that makes Mooney more interesting, because his role can lead to him paying off with just a couple of catches whereas it would be much more difficult for London or Pitts to do so. WR3 McCloud led the team in targets last week with 7, which is kind of nuts when you realize he’s A) not very good and B) only on the field for about half the snaps. I expect this is an outlier rather than something that will continue, but if you feel otherwise, you can roll out McCloud at just $3k. Personally, I’m going to view him more as a relatively thin WR3 on an offense filled with higher-priority, more talented pass catchers. TE2 Woerner is a punt play. 

Philadelphia