game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Ryan Grubb’s play designs were really strong on the ground and left a lot to be desired through the air in his first game as offensive coordinator for the Seahawks, which is almost the exact opposite of what we were expecting coming into the season.
- The strength of each of these teams in Week 1 was their respective run games, something that places a damper on the overall game environment.
- Rhamondre Stevenson ranked third in yards after contact per attempt, first in missed tackles forced, and second in runs of 10+ yards in Week 1, gaining 118 of his 120 yards on the ground after contact.
- New England’s “throwback” defensive philosophy led to the highest rate of Cover-2 in Week 1. Noah Fant led the Seahawks in FP/RR a season ago and saw a significant bump in route participation in Week 1 (75%).
- There aren’t any clear paths for this game environment to erupt, the Patriots are not a good team, and they utilized a ridiculous rotation of pass catchers in Week 1. Stay away. Stay far, far away.
- Patriots left guard Sidi Sow missed Week 1 with an ankle injury and is expected to miss Week 2 as well.
- Seahawks RT George Fant and RB Kenneth Walker are currently thought to be day-to-day, although I’m writing this prior to the release of the first injury report this week.
How SEATTLE Will Try To Win ::
The Seahawks did not look good in Week 1. Geno Smith was inconsistent and indecisive, we saw a lower rate of 11-personnel than we assumed coming into the season, and the offensive-line play was brutal. To that end, Seattle came into the season with innumerable question marks along the offensive line and Week 1 did this unit no favors in squashing those uncertainties. And then there was that bit about them giving up two safeties, which I don’t know if I’ve ever seen in an NFL game before. The first came on an offensive holding call from the end zone while the second came on a Zach Charbonnet carry from the one-yard line. Their possessions in the first half against the Broncos went like this: Sack on first play of game, interception on next play, three-and-out, three-and-out, field goal, safety, muffed punt return and lost fumble, 34-yard Geno Smith rushing touchdown, safety, three-and-out. Woof. They shook off that nightmare with scores on their first three possessions of the second half (two touchdowns and a field goal, with with Walker scoring on a play that was called back due to offensive holding that resulted in the field goal) largely on the back of Walker.
In total, the offense was dead even in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and ended Week 1 with a 28th-ranked 45.0% pass rate, which speaks volumes to how poorly the Broncos performed more than as some indictment on new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. One thing that Grubb can likely improve upon moving forward is his situational play-calling tendencies after the Seahawks routinely found themselves behind the sticks, achieving a first down via rush only 26.32% of the time.
The tape showed an intricate run scheme that utilized a nice mix of man and zone concepts, routinely pulling a complete side of the offensive line to generate massive gap runs to the strong side in addition to down-blocking for weak side runs. Overall I was pretty impressed with the run game and Grubb’s run scheme. The concepts and run play designs combined with Walker’s borderline elite talent on the ground to overcome an offensive line not yet playing as a cohesive unit. Walker forced the third-most missed tackles in Week 1 (eight, behind only Rhamondre Stevenson on the other side of this game and Jordan Mason) and amassed a solid 3.35 yards after contact per attempt, gaining 67 of his 103 yards on the ground after first contact. He also had three carries over 10 yards and two breakaway runs of 15 or more yards. The one thing that continues to hold Walker back from true workhorse status is his poor pass-blocking mechanics after grading out as the 46th-ranked running back (of 50 qualified backs – side note, Jonathan Taylor surprisingly ranked 50th) in pass protection in Week 1. As for how we expect the Seahawks to approach this game, it should not be understated what the losses of Matthew Judon and Christian Barmore mean to the core of this defense. The team went from first in the league in yards allowed per carry in 2023 (3.3) to allowing an 18th-ranked 4.4 yards per carry in Week 1… against the Bengals. I would expect another game plan that focuses on the run for as long as the Seahawks can maintain control of the game environment.
And then there was the pass game. The tape left a lot to be desired for Grubb’s pass offense in Week 1. Routes were flat and by the book, there was little pre-snap motion, and the team utilized play action on just 14.3% of Geno’s dropbacks (four snaps). I honestly was expecting quite a bit more here and was left feeling underwhelmed. DK Metcalf (88% snap rate), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (79%), Noah Fant (75%), and Tyler Lockett (54% due to nagging injury) remain the key cogs through the air for the Seahawks, with the biggest pleasant surprise there being tight end Noah Fant. Fant was on a route at a 75% clip and saw a non-terrible 16% target share in Week 1. New England’s defense remains an outside-in coverage unit, one that looks to strangle the deep ball while forcing things to the short-to-intermediate middle of the field in traffic. That could benefit Fant slightly in this matchup. That said, the Seahawks appear to be content to continue to let the game come to them as opposed to being the spark for a game environment, meaning we should expect them to have to be pushed into increased aerial aggression for the time being.
That doesn’t leave a lot of upside for the remaining pass catchers on this offense, particularly considering Christian Gonzalez’s status as a true lockdown, traveling corner in his second professional season. It remains to be seen if Gonzalez travels with Metcalf, although he is coming off a game where he traveled with Ja’Marr Chase against the Bengals, indicating he might be deployed in the same manner here. The Patriots were in Cover-1 (28.6%) and Cover-2 (34.3%) on over 60% of their defensive snaps against the Bengals. Metcalf, Lockett, and Smith-Njigba all ran about 100 routes against Cover-1 last season, with Metcalf leading the way with 0.68 FP/RR, compared to the 0.39 of Lockett and 0.36 of JSN. That said, Lockett saw four targets against Cover-1 in Week 1, putting up 50 yards for a 1.13 FP/RR mark. Cover-2 rates were down throughout the league in 2023, but the Patriots played it at the highest rate of any team in Week 1. It was Fant leading the way for this Seahawks team against Cover-2 last season, putting up 0.49 FP/RR against that primary defensive coverage, reinforcing the potential for Fant to see an uptick in targets in this spot after his bump in route participation last week.
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