XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday Night Football has the Bears visiting the Texans for a 45.5 total game with Houston favored by 6.5, giving poor Chicago a sub-20 team total. Yikes, just one poor week, and the market completely loses faith in this offense. Is that realistic? Let’s see if we can figure it out.
Chicago
We’ll start on the Chicago side of things, with the run game. New acquisition D’Andre Swift played 70% of the snaps while Khalil Herbert, who was being drafted as the RB2, only played 11%. Travis Homer and Khari Blasingame both played more than Herbert, which was a bit of a surprise. This role only led to 10 carries and 1 target, though keep in mind the Bears only ran 51 plays and failed to score an offensive touchdown. Better things should be ahead for Swift, however, as a significant road underdog and against a Texans defense that was better against the run than the pass last year, this is a hard spot to get really excited about him. You’d be buying him because running backs can always run into positive touchdown variance and because he benefits should Chicago pull off the upset, but I’d really want to limit my exposure to Swift outside of “Bears win” builds. Behind Swift, I don’t know. Travis Homer played the most snaps of the backups and had 2 carries, Herbert had 2 carries, while Blasingame is more of a fullback/blocker type. Homer is $1,000 to Herbert’s $3,600, and at least as of right now, most projection sources have Herbert projected for more points, which should drive ownership his way and makes me want to go a little heavier on Homer in case he usurps the RB2 role at a cheaper price and lower ownership. Homer is also more of a pass-catching back, so if the Texans do indeed win this game, that could result in some increased opportunity.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, the Bears started the season with what looked like an incredibly talented wide receiver trio of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. After one game, both Allen and Odunze have been hurt and both are listed as questionable. Allen missed practice all week while Odunze returned to a limited practice on Friday, but Allen is of course a veteran and could potentially play without practicing. I haven’t seen any real news here but my lean would be that one of them plays and one of them sits, as the Bears called up one wide receiver from the practice squad (Collin Johnson). DJ Moore should be in for a strong workload no matter what after, seeing eight targets and leading the team in receptions and yardage, and the ultra-talented Moore can of course break any slate. $9k feels too cheap for his talent even if his quarterback did not look impressive in his debut. If Allen plays, he projects as a volume monster – he saw 11 targets in Week 1, though his per-target upside is lower than Moore’s. If Odunze is the one who plays, his role is likely a bit deeper/lower volume, and then DeAndre Carter and Velus Jones will fill out the receiver corps. I don’t think Johnson (the practice squadder) is likely to see the field unless both Allen and Odunze miss, but if one is out, I would definitely have some interest in Carter at $2,000, though the situation here gets a bit tricky.
Chicago also has two talented pass-catching tight ends in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. Last season Kmet looked to be breaking out, with elite metrics across pretty much every area but in Week 1 he only played 48% of the snaps to Everett’s 61%. Everett played for new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron previously, so it could be a case of Waldron leaning towards who he’s familiar with, but I personally think Kmet is the more talented one. Anyway, the point here is more that if one of Allen or Odunze misses, we could see the Bears run more 12 personnel as the wide receiver depth behind the main trio is not exactly inspiring. So while I would be interested in Carter at $2k, I would really be more interested in the Bears tight ends (Kmet is more talented but Everett is only $2,400, so both would be firmly in play for me). The elephant in the room, of course, is that the entire offense looked awful, but it was also Caleb Williams’ first NFL game and many rookies take time to adjust to this level. Will he adjust in Week 2? I don’t know, but I don’t think it’s wise to dramatically shift from preseason expectations for this offense after just one game. The Bears are awfully cheap because of Week 1, and my overall stance on this game is that they’re a lot better than they looked against the Titans and that they’ll be able to keep this game competitive.
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