Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Browns emerged from their Week 1 game with numerous key injuries.
- OG Joel Bitonio (elbow) and OT Jack Conklin (knee) were limited in practice on Wednesday while TE David Njoku (ankle) and OT Jedrick Wills (knee) did not practice at all. Njoku has already been ruled out for Week 2 with a high ankle sprain. Both Wills and Conklin did not play in Week 1.
- The Browns also placed four players on injured reserve: LB Mohamoud Diabate, LB Tony Fields, DT Maurice Hurst, and S Juan Thornhill.
- Deshaun Watson held the football far too long in Week 1, leaving their first game with a 30th-ranked time to throw.
- The Jaguars were in complete control of the Week 1 game against the Dolphins until an end-of-third-quarter fumble by Travis Etienne at the two with a 17-7 lead.
How cleveland Will Try To Win ::
The injury woes continue in Cleveland as the team is already dealing with numerous significant injuries. Both starting tackles did not play in Week 1, LG Joel Bitonio emerged from Week 1 with an elbow injury and was limited in practice Wednesday. Four defensive players were placed on injured reserve following their first game, and tight end David Njoku has already been ruled out for Week 2 with a high ankle sprain. And then there’s Deshaun Watson. Off-the-field distractions continue as yet another civil lawsuit was filed this week alleging sexual misconduct, prompting growing discussions surrounding potential outs in the contract language. And I’m not sure what’s going on with Watson’s health because he continues to play like complete doodoo; immobility in the pocket, happy feet, poor diagnostics, holding the football too long, and weaker arm/shoulder strength than Grandma Dolores on Thanksgiving, tossing up pick-sixes to uncle Dave on badly underthrown footballs. The offensive line concerns and poor mechanics from Watson are sure to influence Kevin Stefanski’s game plan here, while Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen’s performance against the high-flying Dolphins offense during the opening weekend also stands as a likely influence. I would expect Stefanski to approach this one with a bit of caution, not trying to go out and blow away the fastest defense in the league and instead trying to slow the game down, shake off the apparent rust, sustain drives, and keep Watson out of long down and distance situations (where he really struggled in Week 1).
Jerome Ford understandably handled the bulk of the work in the Cleveland backfield with Nick Chubb still recovering from his gruesome knee injury suffered in 2023, parlaying a 75% snap rate into 12 carries for 44 yards and a score and a 6-25 receiving line on seven targets. The touchdown came on the team’s final possession against the Cowboys with under 30 seconds remaining and the game out of hand, but the borderline elite snap rate and opportunity share (79.2%) led to the fourth most expected fantasy points in Week 1 (22.0). Expect Ford to be backed up by Pierre Strong as he was last week in a strict change-of-pace role. The matchup is far from ideal considering the injuries along the offensive line and the speed of the Jaguars defense, a unit that held Miami to just 3.2 yards per carry last week, but that type of workload is notable, particularly considering his salary in Week 2. One thing to note here is just how reliant running backs are on touchdowns for fantasy production, which is something I feel the field has largely up and forgotten in recent years. Yes, pure volume is most correlated to fantasy production at the position, but the second highest correlation for fantasy production at running back is touchdowns. That’s important considering the Browns are implied for just 19.25 points, which is about the same as the Malik Willis-led Packers, below the Giants and Commanders, and slightly above the Patriots and Panthers. Finally, Ford forced just two missed tackles in Week 1 and had just 2.25 yards after contact per attempt.
Watson’s Week 1 performance was about as poor as they come, and that isn’t hyperbole. He threw two picks, took six sacks, managed just 3.8 yards per attempt, threw four interceptable passes, and put up laughable marks in completion rate when under pressure (23.1%) and play action completion rate (9.1%). But at least Stefanski was dialing it up – Watson’s aDOT on nine play action dropbacks was a ridiculous 21.0 yards downfield. There are obviously numerous things for this offense to clean up, the first of which should be getting the ball out of Watson’s hands quicker after a 30th-ranked time to throw (3.12 seconds) in Week 1. The offense operated with extreme rates of 11-personnel against the Cowboys. With only one tight end currently on the active roster with Njoku ruled out, I tentatively expect that trend to continue (yeah, they’ll bring somebody up from the practice squad), which does not help in their quest to protect Watson. That said, the Jaguars forced the second lowest pressure rate against the Dolphins in Week 1, behind only the Panthers, forcing two sacks, just one hurry, and three pressures. Even so, Stefanski will need to get the ball out of Watson’s hands at a quicker rate for this offense to sustain success.
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