Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Four members of the Saints’ defense did not practice Wednesday: DT Khalen Saunders, S Tyrann Mathieu, CB Marshon Lattimore, and LB D’Marco Jackson.
- Saints TE Foster Moreau (concussion) practiced in a limited fashion Wednesday, meaning he is progressing well through the league’s concussion protocol (a player must be asymptomatic prior to returning to a limited session).
- The big name on Dallas’ injury report on Wednesday is clearly TE Jake Ferguson, who did not practice with a “mild MCL sprain.” His diagnosis is both fortunate and interesting considering he thought he tore his ACL on Sunday.
- The ultimate path of this game environment likely comes down to Klint Kubiak’s ability to scheme around expected pressure from the Dallas front, because we know Derek Carr turns into a pumpkin when under pressure.
- That’s important because we expect the Cowboys to achieve offensive success while playing at home, where they amassed a ridiculous 36.8 points per game in 2023.
How nEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::
Flat out, the Saints offense looked legit good in Week 1. Yes, the Panthers were asleep at the wheel, but damn, this offense looked legit good. The Saints ranked first in pre-snap motion rate and third in play-action rate in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s first crack at offensive-coordinator duties since his one-year stint in Minnesota in 2021. Individual play designs were in keeping with his coaching pedigree and blood lines, with layered routes designed to simultaneously elongate the opposing defense in both the vertical and horizontal planes as well as place his skill-position players in space with the football moving upfield. He had a solid mix of situational play calls and an intricate run design that also leveraged his play designs through the air.
It was honestly very refreshing to see out of an offense that had gotten stale under Pete Carmichael. And then they add this gambit that is Taysom Hill, who continued to be aligned all over the formation, in addition to fullback Adam Prentice. Hill took snaps under center (from shotgun), halfback, fullback, in the slot, and out wide. He can block, run routes, leak, throw, run the football – it’s legit impressive as a student of the game. He’s asked to do things that quarterbacks do, that tight ends do, that running backs do, and that fullbacks do, and he does it all pretty well. Most notably from a personnel standpoint, the Saints’ starting tight end was Foster Moreau, who played 77% of the offensive snaps compared to just 35% for Juwan Johnson, which is likely to be attributable to Johnson’s offseason foot injury that required surgery.
On the defensive side of the ball, defensive coordinator Joe Woods brought the heat against Young and the Panthers, with nickel corner Alontae Taylor recording a whopping three sacks on unique nickel blitzes on key downs. Finally, the Saints scored on each of their first nine possessions before Jake Heaner entered the game at quarterback with just under seven minutes to play in the fourth quarter against the Panthers, and they never stopped dialing up excellent offensive plays until that time. This offense 100% can be counted on to push game environments moving forward – that is, for as long as their below average offensive line holds up (we know the deal with quarterback Derek Carr and his splits when kept clean versus under pressure).
Starting running back Alvin Kamara had a useful box score, but the underlying metrics continue to tell a different story. His 2.60 yards after contact per attempt and two total missed tackles forced do leave a lot to be desired from an efficiency standpoint, but he did catch all five targets for an additional 27 yards. I think that’s kind of the deal with Kamara moving forward – he’s likely to return a solid weekly floor without clear paths to ceiling. He did, however, see 20 running back opportunities on 34 offensive snaps, good for one of the top touch-to-snap ratios amongst running backs in Week 1. It’s just that Kamara’s trademark twitch and burst have largely dried up at this point in his career.
The matchup against the Cowboys is worse on paper than we’ve grown accustomed to over the previous couple seasons due to a defensive coordinator change that has this team running much more zone coverages, including elevated rates of Cover-4/quarters and Cover-6. More eyes in the backfield and defensive backs in the middle of the field typically reduce the chances for explosive plays on the ground to develop, which is backed up by Jerome Ford’s metrics in this matchup from Week 1. Ford managed just 2.25 yards after contact per attempt and no breakaway runs against the Cowboys to open the season. The vertical component of Kubiak’s offense should result in the opportunity for New Orleans backs to be efficient on their early-down touches, even though this defense held Cleveland to just 3.86 yards per carry. Prentice and Jamaal Williams should each mix in for 30-40% of the offensive snaps in this “jumbo-based” offense.
That same “jumbo-based” personnel offense made it so WR3 Cedrick Wilson played just 44% of the offensive snaps while the three primary skill=position players in near every-down roles were Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and tight end Foster Moreau. Shaheed had a very Shaheedian game in Week 1, converting five targets into three receptions for 73 yards and a score, but he also had an additional end-zone target on a deep ball that was broken up down the sideline in the second quarter that could have made his game much bigger than it already was. He also somewhat quietly tied for the team lead in targets with Kamara on a day Derek Carr attempted only 23 passes. A 75% route-participation rate leaves him with a scary-low floor when he’s not connecting on these deep passes, which is a tough sell against a Cowboys defense capable of generating organic pressure in the backfield without the need for massive blitz rates.
Which brings us back to Derek Carr and his splits when kept clean versus when under pressure. Yeah, this could be one of those games where errant Carr appears due to pressure in the backfield. Olave remains the WR1 on this team with an 83.3% route participation, but he saw just two targets in Week 1 with an aDOT of just 6.0. He ran a solid route tree on tape, so there doesn’t appear to be a reason for panic just yet. The big picture is that this pass offense should remain relatively concentrated amongst Olave, Shaheed, Kamara, and whatever tight end is the primary option on a given week. From an efficiency standpoint, Olave led the team in targets per route run (TPRR) (0.26) and fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) (0.41) against zone coverage in 2023, but this offense is so different that a lot of that should be considered noise at this point.
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