Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The status of 49ers’ RB Christian McCaffrey is likely one of the choke points for this slate.
- Here’s what we know – Kyle Shanahan will not place McCaffrey on injured reserve, as he practiced in a limited fashion both Wednesday and Thursday and NFL Insider Ian Rapoport speculated that McCaffrey “is a longshot to play this weekend.”
- Vikings WR Jordan Addison aggravated a high-ankle sprain in Week 1 and has yet to practice this week, as of Thursday – I expect him to miss Week 2.
- LB Andrew Van Ginkel (foot) also did not practice on Wednesday for the Vikings, both players representing potential massive losses on each side of the ball.
- The Vikings’ retooled secondary looked good in Week 1, with cornerbacks Byron Murphy and Stephon Gilmore living up to their name value to this point.
- The 49ers are a solid bet to reach 30 points scored every time they take the field.
How SAN FRANCISCO Will Try To Win ::
The 49ers continued their steady Eddie production on Monday Night Football to begin their season, scoring more than 30 points for the 15th time in their last 25 regular-season games with Brock Purdy under center. They did so through a heavy reliance on Jordan Mason and Deebo Samuel in Week 1, feeding the two a combined 46 (!!!) carries plus targets. That is absurd. But the thing is, this week’s spot sets up well for a repeat of that performance and reliance against a Vikings defense that utilized zone coverage a ridiculous 81.6% of their snaps and two-high alignments a ridiculous 83.7% of their snaps.
That included a ton of Cover-2 and Cover-4 alignments. Against two-high last season, Samuel ranked third in the league in FP/RR at 0.72 and there was a massive gap between him and Brandon Aiyuk (0.49) and George Kittle (0.33). He also continues to see increased usage out of the backfield and schemed short-area targets with McCaffrey absent. We legitimately could see another combined 40-45 opportunities between Mason and Deebo this week.
Mason filled in admirably for McCaffrey in Week 1, seeing all but three running back snaps while taking 28 carries for 147 yards and a score on the ground and catching his only target for five yards. This is a much more difficult matchup on paper than the one against the Jets, as the Vikings held opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry in 2023 before holding the Giants to 3.5 yards per carry in their opener, something that could be influenced by the presence (or absence) of linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel this week. Vikings nose tackle Harrison Phillips has had an up-and-down career in run-stopping metrics, and this 49ers run scheme is far different than the vanilla schemes deployed by the Giants. In other words, the on-paper matchup looks much more difficult, but this run game is one that can, and will, succeed against almost any team in the league. If CMC remains out, expect another robust workload for Mason here.
Brian Flores is a master of unique blitz packages, something that Kyle Shanahan is likely to view as a reason to have Kittle in on protection or chips at an elevated rate. These two teams played in Week 7 last season and the Vikings held the 49ers to just 17 points in a San Francisco loss, but that game was played without Samuel and Justin Jefferson. In that game, Kittle led the team in receiving with 78 yards but was kept into block at an elevated rate, while Jauan Jennings led the team with nine targets.
With Deebo healthy, I expect a clear path to eight to 10 targets with room for eight to 10 carries. The heavy zone usage from the Vikings, in addition to the retooled secondary, should largely force the 49ers to march the field while diminishing the chances for splash plays to develop. Brandon Aiyuk played just 60% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 while on a strict snap restriction, something that should jump up to a more natural 80-85% rate in Week 2.
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