Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 4:05pm Eastern

Bears (
20.25) at
Raiders (
25.75)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The Bears want to hide Justin Fields as much as the scoreboard will let them
  • Pay attention to reports about Damien Williams role and health
  • Josh Jacobs has low-owned, price considered appeal if fully healthy
  • Darren Waller has explosive upside but is priced for his ceiling

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears come into this game with a 2-2 record, still very much alive in their division. This is despite not having a true NFL caliber QB on the field. Unless . . . Fields is that guy on the field. After a disastrous Week 3, Matt Nagy was able to successfully play “hide the QB” against the Lions, as he rode his over performing defense and running game to victory. In a throwback to the 90s, the Bears pounded the rock 39 times versus only 17 pass attempts. This showed that Nagy is happy to limit Fields passing in games where he doesn’t need to throw to win.  

The 3-1 Raiders present a stiffer test than the untalented Lions, but don’t present a clear “path of least resistance” on defense, ranking middle of the pack in both run and pass DVOA. The relative weakness of the defense isn’t likely to matter much to the Bears anyway, as they are going to universally try their preferred approach to prevent Fields from making mistakes. Expect the Bears to come out running and continue to do so unless the scoreboard forces them to change their tactics.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders come into this game at 3-1, checking in above expectations early in the season. They haven’t played cupcakes either, beating the Ravens and Steelers on the road, before taking their first loss against a talented Chargers team they will see again at the Death Star later this year. The AFC West is one of the best divisions in football and the Raiders are going to have to fight all season if they want to secure a playoff spot.

John Gruden is one of the more adaptable coaches in the NFL, generally wanting to run the ball, but being willing to cut bait and chuck it as the situation and matchup require. The Raiders put up 33, 26, and 31 points in their first three games before being slowed by the Chargers. They’ve produced most of their offense through the air, despite not truly having a WR1 on the roster. The Bears defense has performed well to start the year, ranking just outside the top 10 in both rush and pass DVOA. On paper, their secondary is weak, and absent an obvious path of least resistance, expect the Raiders to probe for weaknesses in both the run and pass game, going balanced throughout while leaning towards the pass. Gruden will also consider his opponent, knowing that taking an early lead will force the Bears out of “hide the QB” mode and lead to turnover opportunities.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a 44.5 total which is on the lower side for the main slate. This total feels about right since the Bears want to shorten the game and the Raiders aren’t the type of offense that is going to run over a sturdy Bears defense. The Raiders have been installed as 5.5 favorites, favoring a game flow where they methodically pull away from the Bears eventually forcing Justin Fields to show us what he’s got in the fourth quarter. After looking like a total disaster Week 3, Fields showed signs of life in Week 4 (albeit against the Lions). The Bears defense should be able to keep them within striking distance for most of this contest, and Fields should have a chance late to try and win the game. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • 4th lowest Vegas total of Week 5
  • CHI have the 4th lowest implied total
  • LV 1-4 ATS in last 5 games
  • OVER has hit in all 5, and in 7 out of the last 8 home games for LV
  • OVER has hit in 4 out of the last 5 CHI games
  • CHI ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to D/ST (7.5)

Justin Fields

  • Ranked 32nd in PFF grade (57.5)
  • In college, his PFF grades from 2018-2020: 90.1 // 91.5 // 93.5
  • In 150 total snaps, Fields has completed 25/52 passes for 347 yards and 2 INTs
  • His 6.7 YPA is tied for 8th lowest, but his ADoT is tied for 2nd most with 9.9
  • He’s had 11 designed runs on 75 rushing snaps, scoring once
  • In two starts, Fields has scored 3.92 pts @ CLE and 8.26 vs. DET
  • LV ranks 13th in ppg to QBs (19.1)

CHI Passing Attack

  • CHI uses 11 personnel at a 66% rate and 12 personnel at 23%
  • Team snap shares: Darnell Mooney 89.5% // Cole Kmet 83.5% // Allen Robinson 82.3% // Damiere Byrd 47.7% // Marquise Goodwin 40.5%
  • Target shares: Mooney 25.7% // Robinson 23.8% // Kmet 14.9% // Goodwin 9.9%
  • Mooney is 12th in target share, 10th in air yard market share, and 16th in WOPR among all WRs
  • Mooney’s DK log: 7.6 // 12.6 // 1.9 // 21.5
  • In 20 career games, he’s scored 20+ just twice
  • In the 48 games as a Bear prior to this season, Robinson averaged 15.82 DK ppg
  • That includes 15 instances of 20+ points, 4 of which went over 30
  • Robinson’s 2021 DK log: 9.5 // 10.4 // 4.7 // 9.3
  • Byrd and Goodwin have yet to hit double digit DK points this season
  • LV ranks 9th in DK ppg to WRs (33.2)
  • Kmet ranks 6th in snap share among all TEs
  • Kmet’s DK log this season: 9.2 // 1 // 2.1 // 1.6
  • In 13 career games, he’s never scored 15+ and only hit double digits twice
  • LV ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (16.1)

CHI RBs

  • David Montgomery led the team in RB touches per game (18.8) but will now be sidelined for multiple weeks
  • Through four weeks, Damien Williams played on 30% of team snaps
  • He had a 9.9% target share (Montgomery had 8.9%)
  • Damien’s touch log: 10 // 4 // – // 10
  • Khalil Herbert earned his first touches in Week 4 with Montgomery ailing (3)
  • Damien’s DK log this year: 8 // 2.4 // 15
  • At KC, Damien averaged 16.88 DK ppg
  • LV ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (27.7)

Derek Carr

  • Carr ranks 9th in PFF grade and YPA
  • He leads the league in passing yards
  • Carr’s DK log: 28 // 27.18 // 25.24 // 15.44
  • In 52 games under Gruden, Carr averages 17.44 pts
  • 16 of those games had a Vegas total of 46 or less, and Carr managed 20+ DK pts 4 times
  • CHI ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.1)

LV Passing Attack

  • LV uses 11 personnel 35% of the time (league average is 58%), 12 personnel 25%, 21 at 17% (average is 7%), 13 at 8%, and 22 at 11% (tied for 2nd most)
  • Team snap shares: Darren Waller 89.4% // Bryan Edwards 75.3% // Henry Ruggs 66.4% // Hunter Renfrow 53.8% // Foster Moreau 50.7% // Zay Jones 20.9%
  • Target shares: Waller 23.5% // Renfrow 17.6% // Ruggs 14.7% // Edwards 10%
  • Waller is 2nd in snap share, 1st in target share, 1st in total air yards (almost 200 more than 2nd place Mark Andrews), 1st in air yard market share, and 1st in WOPR among all TEs
  • He’s 4th in DK ppg (16.6)
  • Waller’s DK log: 29.5 // 11.5 // 10.4 // 15
  • In 38 games with Gruden, Waller averages 15.97 DK ppg
  • He has 10 games with 20+ pts, 6 with 30+, and a ceiling output of 48
  • CHI ranks 7th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (8.1)
  • Renfrow ranks 16th in PFF grade among WRs
  • His DK log: 13 // 10.7 // 18.7 // 16.5
  • He’s scored 20+ just three times out of 33 career games
  • Edwards’s DK log: 12.1 // 7 // 11.9 // 1.4
  • Edwards has had just one other double digit output (13.1) since entering the league last year
  • Ruggs is 5th in ADoT among all WRs
  • His DK log: 6.6 // 25.5 // 12.5 // 9
  • He’s scored double digits just two other times since entering the league last year
  • CHI ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (44.6)

LV RBs

  • Kenyan Drake’s snap counts: 41 // 47 // 36 // 20
  • Josh Jacobs’s: 45 // – // – // 36
  • Peyton Barber’s: – // 19 // 47 // 1
  • Drake’s target counts: 5 // 6 // 6 // 0
  • Jacobs’s: 2 // – // – // 5
  • Barber’s: – // 0 // 5 // 0
  • Jacobs’s touches: 11 // – // – // 18
  • Drake’s: 11 // 12 // 11 // 1
  • Barber’s: – // 13 // 26 // 1
  • Jacobs finished 2nd in RBOPR in Week 4
  • His DK log in two games: 17 // 10.7
  • Jacobs averages 22.06 DK ppg as a home favorite
  • CHI ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (20.5)