Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 4:25pm Eastern

Giants (
22.75) at
Cowboys (
29.75)

Over/Under 52.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Dallas leads the league in situation-neutral rush rates since Michael Gallup was placed on IR following Week 1
  • We should expect that standard plan of attack to continue against a Giants opponent ranked 29th in adjusted line yards on defense, meaning Dallas pass-catchers require the Giants to force aerial aggression in order to return GPP-worthy scores outside of multiple splash plays
  • The Giants should struggle to maintain drives should Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton miss, which would leave the offense in the hands of Kenny Golladay against Trevon Diggs, Saquon Barkley, John Ross III, and rookie wide receiver Kadarius Toney
  • Dallas should control this game with their surging defense and relentless ground attack
  • Trevon Diggs left Week 4 after two more picks (five total through four games!) with back tightness; something to monitor, but I expect him to play

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Giants rank 12th in the league in situation-neutral pass rate through four weeks, which can be attributed to multiple factors including neutral to negative game scripts, the lack of early-season health from their workhorse running back, and lack of early game aggression. That lack of early game aggression can be seen through the delta in situation-neutral pace of play and their pace of play when trailing by seven or more points, which currently sits at over seven seconds per play (fourth-largest delta in the league behind only Buffalo – who hasn’t trailed much this year, Minnesota, and Tennessee). The Giants have, however, shown that they can have success through the air when forced to do so, but this team should start the contest attempting to slow things down and lean on the run and short passing game.

The matchup on the ground yields a sad 3.875 net-adjusted line yards metric primarily due to New York’s struggles in the trenches. Saquon Barkley’s 13 total targets over the previous two games keep his floor high, but he should require a long rush or reception plus a score in order to return value here. Devontae Booker has seen only modest snap totals over the previous three weeks and isn’t a consideration. The Giants have shown us they would like to maintain a balanced offense and moderate pace of play for as long as they are afforded the opportunity, which hasn’t been deep into games thus far.

New York could once again be shorthanded in the passing game with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton missing practice on Wednesday. Both are likely to remain out with hamstring injuries as of now. Wide receiver Kenny Golladay plays the “X” position for the Giants, the position most likely to see Trevon Diggs shadow treatment. This leaves Saquon Barkley, an ineffective Evan Engram, John Ross III, and rookie wide receiver Kadarius Toney as the primary pass-catchers, a situation that seems less than ideal. With how the Dallas defense sets up, expect six to seven targets as the floor for Barkley here, further inflating his already rock-solid floor. The remainder of the pass-catchers simply don’t bring enough expected volume or enough skill-driven splash play potential to warrant consideration outside of the deepest of MME one-offs, and even then there are much better spots this week.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys have more or less flipped the script on their weekly game plans following the injury to Michael Gallup. They kept their heightened pass rates from 2020 through the first week of 2021 before shifting to a much heavier 12-personnel alignment rate and focusing on the ground game. Their 57% situation-neutral rush rate over the last three weeks ranks first in the NFL over that time and their pace of play is a no-longer-elite 29.18 seconds per play (seventh in the NFL). Dallas’ positional target rates fall right around league average to all three major positions but their 34% 12-personnel rate ranks third on the young season. We should expect this new-look Dallas offense to continue for as long as Gallup remains out of the lineup and they remain in neutral to positive game scripts.

Ezekiel Elliott has seen a much larger share of this backfield than public perception would dictate, seeing snap rates of 84/71/70/75% and opportunity counts of 13/18/20/21 to start the season. The pass game work has largely been missing, keeping Zeke below the top tier of running backs, but he maintains a tight window of expected opportunities weekly. Behind Zeke, Tony Pollard has parlayed modest snap shares into opportunity totals of 7/16/12/10, just enough to sap elite status out of Zeke but not enough to be a bankable fantasy asset. The perception is that he is much more involved in the passing game but the reality is his eight total targets through four games are the same total that Zeke has seen. The matchup on the ground yields an elite 5.105 net-adjusted line yards metric on the backs of the Cowboys’ top marks.

Weird angle, but we’ll start with the Giants defense here. They rank 31st in the league in pass rush win rate and defensive end Leonard Williams missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury. Don’t expect a lot of pressure on Dak Prescott in the backfield. After attempting 58 passes in Week 1, Dak has attempted only 27, 26, and 22 over the previous three weeks (aligning with both positive game scripts and Gallup’s absence), meaning the Giants would have to force Dallas’ hand in order for us to expect that volume to increase. This makes all of CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz, Blake Jarwin, and the running backs long shots to see the required volume to return fantasy utility through the air. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Look for each team to start this game with a ground-based attack as each battle to control the field position and time of possession battle. With the shift in offensive philosophy to a team built around the run, against an opponent that should offer little resistance in that area, expect the Cowboys to handle this game with their surging defense and relentless run game. This makes the public perception of the Cowboys misaligned with the ownership on their pass-catchers over the previous three weeks, and also makes the only game flow where we can confidently project the required volume to return GPP-worthy scores one in which the Giants jump out to a big lead. That remains highly unlikely here with how these two teams are set up. The Giants are also a little bit hamstrung in their ability to keep pace or force Dallas into aggression with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton appearing likely to miss their second game in a row (both missed practice on Wednesday). 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Dak Prescott:

  • Dak pass yds in first five games with McCarthy: 266 // 450 // 472 // 502 // 403 
  • Dak pass yds in last three games with McCarthy: 237 // 238 // 188
  • Dak pass att/g in first five vs last three (TD:INT): 52 att (12:4) vs 25 att (7:1)
  • Pass att vs NYG: 36 // 46 // 36 // 26
  • NYG ranks 24th in defensive pass DVOA
  • QB TDs vs NYG: 2 // 2 // 2 // 3
  • Dak has scored 20+ DK pts in 23/31 games as a Home Favorite

DAL WRs:

  • Targets in the last three low-volume pass att games: Cooper (5, 4, 3) // Lamb (9, 3, 5) // Wilson (2, 4, 2)
  • Yds/g in the last three: Cooper (39.7) // Lamb (53.3) // Wilson (22.3)
  • WRs with 6+ tg vs NYG: Jeudy (6:72) // McLaurin (11:107:1), Humphries (7:44) // Ridley (8:61), Zacchaeus (3:32:1) // Harris (5:52)
  • Top WR in every Dak/McCarthy game (DK pts): Cooper (18.1) // Lamb (19.6) // Wilson (30.7), Gallup (28.8) // Cooper (34.4) // Cooper (41.9) // Lamb (17.4) // Wilson (9.7) // Cooper (15.9)

DAL TEs:

  • Targets: Schultz (6, 2, 7, 8) // Jarwin (4, 4, 2, 3)
  • Schultz already has 3 games of 6+ rec (6:45 // 6:80:2 // 6:58:1)
  • TEs vs NYG: Fant (6:62) // Thomas (5:45) // Pitts (2:35) // Johnson (2:20:1)
  • Three TDs have also been caught by backup TEs (Albert O, Seals-Jones, Lee Smith)
  • RZ targets: Schultz (3), Jarwin (2)

DAL RBs:

  • Rush att vs NYG: 25 // 17 // 19 // 33
  • DAL RB rush att in last three games: 29 // 31 // 30
  • Rush att: Elliott (11, 16, 17, 20) // Pollard (3, 13, 11, 10)
  • Targets: Elliott (2, 2, 3, 1) // Pollard (4, 3, 1, 0)
  • Total yds: Elliott (39, 97, 116, 143) // Pollard (43, 140, 65, 67)
  • RBs with 70+ yds vs NYG: Gordon (118) // McKissic (93), Gibson (73) // CPatt (102), Davis (70) // Kamara (120)
  • Elliott rushing vs NYG in 2020: 19:91:2 // 14:42:1
  • Elliott is averaging 21.2 DK pts/g in 34 games as a Home Favorite
  • As a Home Favorite of 7+ pts (8 games), Elliott has three strong scores (28.3, 30.4, 30.8) and four sub-20 pt scores
  • DAL won all eight games; other DAL production in Zeke’s sub-20 pt scores::
  • Dak rush TD, Pollard (103:1) // Dak (405:4) // Dak rush TD, DAL Def TD // Dak (301:3)

Daniel Jones:

  • The Giants have scored under 20 offensive pts in 12/20 games with Garrett as OC
  • Jones DK scores as Road Dog with Jason Garrett: 9.7 // 11.1 // 9.2 // 22.7 // 12.9 // 14.4 // 30.8
  • In 20 Garrett games, Jones or Colt McCoy have scored 1 TD or less in 13 of them
  • QBs vs DAL: Brady (379:4:2) // Herbert (338:1:2) // Hurts (326:2:2) // Darnold (301:2:2)
  • All four QBs have thrown for 300+ yds and all have thrown 2 INT
  • Jones only INT this year was a Hail Mary before halftime last week
  • Jones first 300 yd pass game with Garrett came last week with 402 yds vs NOR, despite being down two starting WRs
  • Jones threw for 300 yds five times in his rookie year with Pat Shurmur
  • Hurts & Darnold also added 35 yds on the ground each, with Darnold scoring twice
  • Jones rushing in 2021: 6:27:1 // 9:95:1 // 8:39 // 4:27

NYG WRs:

  • Best WRs vs DAL: Brown (5:121:1), Godwin (9:105:1) // Keenan (4:108), Williams (7:91:1) // Reagor (5:53) // Moore (8:113:2)
  • Golladay has 60+ yds in 3/4 games (64, 64, 116), though his best game came without both Shepard & Slayton
  • The player Trevon Diggs has spent the most time on each week’s finishing line: Evans (3:24) // Keenan (4:108) // Devonta (3:28) // Robby (5:46)
  • With John Ross returning from IR, and 2021 1st-rd pick Toney producing 6:78 in his first game playing majority of snaps, the Giants are suddenly dealing with a very crowded receiver room pending the health of Shepard & Slayton (+ Engram being healthy)
  • Games with 50+ rec yds in 2021: Golladay (3) // Shepard (2) // Slayton (2) // Toney (1) // Ross (1) // Johnson (1)

Evan Engram:

  • TEs vs DAL: Gronk (8:90:2) // Cook (3:28) // Goedert (2:66), Ertz (4:53:1)
  • Both Parham & Cook had TDs called back vs DAL in W2
  • Those TEs all spend considerable time in the slot; Engram actually has more slot snaps than inline snaps through two games
  • Engram has just 7:48 through two games

Saquon Barkley:

  • Top RB total yds vs DAL: Fournette (59) // Ekeler (115) // Sanders (55) // Hubbard (71)
  • Backfield rec yds vs DAL: TB (39) // LAC (68) // PHI (65) // CAR (62)
  • Saquon has 52/66 RB touches on the season (52/63 att, 19/24 tg) after receiving 39/47 touches the past two weeks
  • Saquon’s targets with Garrett: 9 // 3 // 3 // 7 // 6
  • Saquon’s total yds with Garrett: 66 // 27 // 69 // 94 // 126
  • DAL still hasn’t allowed a RB rush TD
  • Saquon has a rush TD in each of the last two games
  • Saquon caught 9 passes in his matchup vs Dan Quinn’s 2018 Falcons