Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Packers (
26.5) at

Bengals (
24)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Packers Run D
28th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
20th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
15th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
15th DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bengals Run D
13th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
8th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
24th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
2nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Impactful injuries to both sides of the ball for the Packers; left tackle David Bakhtiari remains out after his torn ACL last season, All-World corner Jaire Alexander left Week 4’s game with a shoulder injury late, Pro Bowl outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith remains out following back surgery, and guard Elgton Jenkins has missed the previous two contests with an ankle injury
  • Bengals have injuries of their own, with Joe Mixon picking up a “low-grade” lower ankle injury late in Week 4 and multiple members of their secondary struggling to maintain health
  • Bengals tight end CJ Uzomah is likely to generate buzz this week after his Week 4 explosion, but that was the first game all season in which he saw over two targets
  • Joe Mixon’s game day status is likely to have a large impact on the overall fantasy allure of both teams as it opens up a path to increased offensive plays run from scrimmage on both sides

How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::

After starting the season flat with a three-point showing against the Saints, the Packers are back to their slow, methodical, and efficient ways. Moderate pass rates, slow pace of play, and a high level of offensive efficiency are once again the name of the game here for the Packers. A standard week leaves the offense in the 65-70 offensive plays run from scrimmage range and Aaron Rodgers in the 32-36 pass attempt range. The biggest thing to note along those lines is that the efficiency that we’ve all grown accustomed to from this offense has returned after that Week 1 clunker, as the Packers are all the way up to seventh in the league in drive success rate after digging a significant hole in their first game of the season.

Aaron Jones has seen between 63% and 73% of the offensive snaps over the previous three weeks, which should be considered his likeliest range of outcomes as far as snap rate goes here. The Packers are completely content keeping his touches in the 18-24 range as they look to keep him healthy, typically leaving a handful of touches to AJ Dillon. The most telling stat to look at with respect to Jones’ capped touch potential comes from Dillon’s 16-opportunity Week 4 performance in a game the Packers controlled throughout (Jones saw 19). Basically, we can’t project more than 18-24 running back opportunities for Jones in even the most positive of game scripts. The matchup on the ground yields a below average 3.815 net-adjusted line yards metric and the Packers are likely to be without two starting members of their once-dominant offensive line.

The absence of Marquez Valdes-Scantling afforded a small boost to both Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb’s snap rates in Week 4, but the duo still only saw a combined nine targets. This is very much still Davante Adams’ world, the rest are just living in it. His moderate-for-him 11 targets in Week 4 came one week after he saw a whopping 54.54% of the available targets against the Niners, making him one of only a handful of NFL players capable of seeing more than half of the team’s available targets on any given week. The trio of Trae Waynes, Eli Apple, and Mike Hilton should be tasked with man-heavy coverage in Lou Anarumo’s defensive scheme against one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL against man coverage. Let’s just say I like Adams’ chances here. Both Allen Lazard and tight end Robert Tonyan should be on the field for 75-80% of the offensive snaps but both are secondary options in this passing attack. Slot man Randall Cobb scored two touchdowns in Week 4 but played only 46% of the offensive snaps and can’t be counted on for bankable volume and production.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals own the league’s second-slowest situation-neutral pace of play through four weeks, mixing a slow pace of play with elevated rush rates (sixth-highest situation-neutral rush rate at 47%). While it’s clear how they would like to try and win games, Week 5 should mark their toughest test of the season against a Packers team that has scored 35, 30, and 27 points following their Week 1 dismantling at the hands of the Saints. This could also be the first game they play without their workhorse running back in Joe Mixon, who suffered a “low-grade” ankle sprain late in Week 4. Keep an eye on his status throughout the week as Adam Schefter originally dubbed him week-to-week, which was swiftly followed up by a day-to-day declaration from head coach Zac Taylor. His game day status is likely to have a large effect on how the Bengals approach this game offensively. Furthering the wide range of potential paths of attack here is the likely absence of standout corner Jaire Alexander for the Packers, who suffered a shoulder injury late in Week 4. One last thing to keep in mind with respect to how the Bengals are likeliest to attack is the fact that Zac Taylor is very much a new-age coach that has shown a propensity to adapt his game plan as needed to best suit the available personnel and opponent. We’ll write up the remainder of this game under the assumption that both Joe Mixon and Jaire Alexander miss, and cover the scenario of Mixon playing in the tributary.

Should Joe Mixon miss, the Bengals are left with some combination of Samaje Perine and Chris Evans at running back. It is likeliest we see Perine step into the primary rushing duties while Evans handles the change of pace and pass-down duties. The matchup on the ground yields an above-average 4.55 net-adjusted line yards metric and should allow Taylor the ability to keep this team rather balanced for as long as his team keeps the score within reason. It remains to be seen how Taylor will handle a game plan without Mixon, but there is the possibility he opens up the offense earlier than he otherwise would in his absence. The final consideration to keep in mind here is the slow start from the Bengals Week 4 game against an inferior opponent that saw them trailing 14-0 at the half. Their first three possessions in the second half led to touchdowns and saw a 15-10 pass-to-rush ratio as the team played from behind. Now consider the likely absence of Mixon and injuries to the back half of the Packers defense and we could see a much more pass-heavy approach as Taylor looks to avoid a large deficit. The assumption of rational coaching is a dangerous game to play, but heavier pass game reliance seems to make the most sense here.

Speaking of the passing game, the Bengals are expecting Tee Higgins back from a two game absence this week. The NFL average for 11-personnel rates is 58% so far this season and the NFL average for wide receiver target rate is 61%. The Bengals have averaged 66% and 69%, respectively, in those two categories over the first four weeks, indicating a clear path of likeliest attack against a Packers secondary down to four healthy corners (assuming Kevin King returns from a concussion). We should see rookie Eric Stokes and Kevin King start on the perimeter, with Chandon Sullivan manning the slot. Rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has primarily played on the left side of the formation (70.5% of offensive snaps have come from that alignment), which means he should primarily see the sticky coverage of Eric Stokes (12 of 27 for only 106 yards and one touchdown allowed in primary coverage), leaving Kevin King to cover Tee Higgins and Chandon Sullivan to cover Tyler Boyd in the slot. King has been the most burnable member of this secondary over the previous 2.25 seasons while Sullivan has allowed a 111.5 quarterback rating against in a reserve role on 10 of 16 for 140 yards and a touchdown. Consider this a plus matchup for both Higgins and Boyd, with the very real possibility that we see an increase to the low 26.8 pass attempts per game seen from this offense up to this point. Finally, CJ Uzomah saw more than two targets for the first time in Week 4 which came in a game without Tee Higgins. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likeliest we see this game start out rather slow from a pace perspective with both teams clearly comfortable slowing things down. That said, the Packers are all the way up to seventh in the league in drive success rate on offense after starting the season with a complete dud against the Saints, meaning they have been highly efficient on offense over the previous three weeks. If we expect the Packers to put up points in just about any matchup, we should expect them to see success here against a defense with numerous injuries across the back half of their defense. When we then consider the likely absences of Bengals running back Joe Mixon and Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander, paired with a Packers defense ranked bottom six in the league in drive success rate allowed and points allowed per drive, we start to see a likeliest scenario where each offense is able to generate success on the scoreboard. This should keep both teams aggressive throughout the game and gives us a game environment where both volume and efficiency should largely be bankable from select pieces on both teams. 

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • As of Wednesday, this has the second highest total on the slate (51.5) & has moved up three points since opening
  • GB is favored by three
  • GB pts scored: PIT-27 // SF-30 // DET-35 // NO-3
  • CIN pts scored: JAX-24 // PIT-24 // CHI-17 // MIN 27 (OT)
  • CIN has scored 24 pts in regulation in three of four games & have just seven first quarter pts this season
  • CIN will have a few extra days rest coming off a Thursday win vs JAX

Aaron Rodgers: 

  • DK pts by week: vs PIT-24.10 // @ SF-19.00 // vs DET-26.60 // @ NO-3.30
  • Rodgers last 30+ DK pt game came against DET week 14
  • His last 300+ yd regular season game was in week 11 vs IND
  • CIN DK pts allowed to QB: Trevor Lawrence-17.76 // Ben Roethlisberger-18.22 // Andy Dalton/Justin Fields-13.24 // Kirk Cousins-25.04
  • This ranks 8th least DK pts to QBs (18.6/g)

GB RBs:

  • GB RB snap share: Aaron Jones-64% // AJ Dillon-32%
  • Rush share: Jones-56% // Dillion-29%
  • Jones has 14 tgts, Dillon 6
  • Jones has six RZ tgs (2nd on team) and three RZ rec TDs (first on team)
  • All of his rec RZ TDs came week one vs DET
  • CIN allows a middling 24.1 DK pts to RBs
  • Opponents are rushing against CIN the seventh least at 37.69% of the time
  • CIN has faced pass heavy PIT (second in pass atts) but also run heavy CHI (10th in rush atts)

Davante Adams:

  • Adams makes up 36% of GB tgt share & 39% of GB pass yds
  • Tgts by week: 11 // 18 (vs SF who was missing both starting CBs by the end of the game) // 9 // 7
  • Adams NFL ranks: tgts/g-5th (11.25) // rec yds/g-5th (92.25)
  • CIN allowed 30.20 DK pts to Adam Theilan Week 1
  •  Other than that they haven’t allowed a WR over 20 DK pts but have only faced: CHI (Allen Robinson-17.00, Darnell Mooney-12.60 DK pts, ) //  PIT (Chase Claypool-18.60, JuJu Smith-Schuster-5.50) & JAX (Lavista Shenault-17.00, Marvin Jones-5.40) 
  • Adams has nine RZ targets, four RZ receptions, and one RZ TD (only TD of season)

Other GB WRs

  • Other than Adams, GBs tgt share has been spread out
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (IR)-13% // Randall Cobb-9% // Allen Lazard-6%
  • RZ tgts: Cobb-4 // Malik Taylor-2 // MVS-2
  • GB routes run w/ no MVS last week (of 40): Adams-39 // Lazard-37 // Cobb-25 // Equanimeous St. Brown-3 // Amari Rodgers-1

GB TEs

  • Robert Tonyan is third in GB tgts w/ 15 (12%)
  • Tonyan tgts by week: 7 // 1 // 3 // 2

Joe Burrow: 

  • Burrow has yet to complete over 25 passes in a game this season
  • Despite this, he has multiple pass TDs in every game & ranks 5th with nine 
  • CINs scored a TD on 75% of RZ trips (5th best)
  • GB has allowed a TD on all of its opponents RZ attps
  • On nine RZ pass atts, Burrow has 5 TDs
  • GB ranks T-22nd in sacks
  • Burrow has taken 11, eighth most

Joe Mixon:

  • Mixon is questionable this week (low grade ankle sprain last Thursday)
  • Despite Mixon missing part of last week’s game, Mixon owns an 81% rush share
  • Mixon has seen just 2.25 tgts/g
  • Atts by week: vs JAX (injured)-16 // @ PIT-18 // @ CHI-20 // vs MIN-29
  • GB has allowed one 20+ DK RB (Najee Harris-21.10) but six of those pts came from receptions
  • They held Alvin Kamara to 18.10 DK pts Week 1
  • GB allows a middling 23.4 DK pts/g to RBs

CIN WRs:

  • PFFs 13th ranked CB Jaire Alexander was injured in last weeks game & will likely miss this weeks game
  • Tee Higgins is questionable this week after missing weeks three & four
  • Tgts week 1 & 2 w/ Higgins: Jamaar Chase-13  // Higgins-15 // Tyler Boyd-13
  • Tgts Weeks 3 & 4 w/o Higgins: Boyd-13 // Chase-14
  • RZ tgts: Chase-4 (two TDs) // Higgins-3 (two TDs) // Boyd-2 (one TD)
  • Boyd led the team in RZ tgts last season seeing 18 (4 TDs)
  • GB allows the 7th fewest DK pts to WR (31.2)

CIN TEs:

  • CJ Uzomah has seen 11 tgts, fourth on team, and the only CIN to receive a tgt this season
  • Two of nine tgts have been for TDs