Game Overview ::
By mjohnson86 >>
- Tennessee looks to rebound after an embarrassing loss to the Jets. They are in a similar situation as last week going against a winless team with a rookie quarterback.
- Jacksonville is mired in turmoil following their Head Coach’s night on the town last Thursday.
- Injuries to both sides will help to make volume much more concentrated than how we saw these teams at the start of the season.
- Two poor defenses are involved in this game, which increases the chances of a shootout game environment.
How tennessee Will Try To Win ::
Tennessee’s plan of attack is first and foremost to get the ball to Derrick Henry 20+ times. Henry has handled an incredible 127 touches through four games to start the season and he should be in line for more of the same in Week 5. In regards to the passing game, Jacksonville is dead last in the NFL in pass defense DVOA; in PFF ratings, they are the 30th graded unit in both pass rush and coverage grades. Meanwhile, both PFF and DVOA have Jacksonville as a middle of the pack rushing defense.
Putting these things together, it becomes clear that Tennessee should have no trouble moving the ball in whichever form they prefer. Derrick Henry is a monster and Jacksonville’s run defense, while not terrible, is not good enough to make Tennessee afraid to run the ball, or likely to turn them away from how they want to play. However, the incredible matchup for the passing game makes it likely that Tennessee will be able to be very efficient through the air, especially with A.J. Brown likely to return this week to add some explosiveness to the aerial attack. The status of the Tennessee offensive line is something we should pay close attention to as the week draws to a close. Several linemen are on the injury report, and if it turns out Tennessee will be without a couple of their key members of the O-Line, it could be something that encourages them to turn more pass heavy than we would expect with such a good matchup through the air.
How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
Jacksonville has been a different team from the first two weeks of the season to their most recent two games. After operating at a very high pace and throwing at a high rate to start the year, the Jaguars leaned more on the running game against the Cardinals and Bengals. Part of that likely had to do with trying to keep Kyler Murray off the field and building a big first half lead against the Bengals. Part of that was also probably tied to trying to keep Trevor Lawrence in one piece. The Jaguars incorporated more read-option plays last week and got Lawrence using his legs in space. This helped them sustain drives and convert several key third downs.
Jacksonville should use a steady dose of the running game between James Robinson, Trevor Lawrence, and Carlos Hyde. They will also be moderately aggressive when they take to the air, with Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones drawing attention down the field, and their RBs and TEs mixing in for some short area passing work. There will likely be some focus on slowing the game down and protecting their defense, but they have to know they are going to need to score 24+ points so I don’t think we should expect a totally conservative game plan. Tennessee ranks in the mid-20s against both the run and the pass so the matchup isn’t one where the Jags would want to avoid a certain plan of attack. Jacksonville should be able to move the ball well here, and will need to focus on converting their drives into touchdowns if they want to be competing in the fourth quarter.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
Obviously, the biggest talking point surrounding this game is Urban Meyer’s actions after the game last week and what that means for the Jaguars. I think it is important to discuss this prior to digging into the game flow.
I have heard some people say they think this will have a huge impact on their performance this week or that the players may “quit” on him. I have a hard time believing that these adult professionals who are trying to make the most of their careers are going to consciously not try as hard because they are mad their coach was dancing at a bar. Bad tape or statistics stays with a player; these guys aren’t thinking about Meyer’s personal life when they get out there. That being said, I do think that in a scenario where the Titans are stomping them, there is less likelihood of a rally from the Jaguars. While they won’t actively be thinking about what has transpired during a competitive game, if things turn ugly, it will be easy for players to place blame on the coach and he certainly doesn’t appear to have the players ready to “run through the wall for him and save his job.” That type of thing would have a bigger impact on the defensive side of the ball than the offense, as offensive players are actively trying to make things happen while the defensive players will have to weigh their personal safety and career, as in “how aggressively do I want to try to tackle a full-speed Derrick Henry in the fourth quarter already down three scores for a coach who likely won’t be here Monday?”
As for the actual game, I expect a pretty balanced attack for both teams especially early on. The Titans want to run the ball but given the matchup, they will certainly not be avoiding the pass. Meanwhile, the Jaguars will likely try to establish their running game early to protect their defense and keep Henry and Co. off the field, but they also have a great passing game matchup and are quickly going to need to score points to stay within shouting distance. The Titans have multiple players capable of explosive plays that can flip the switch here, and the Jaguars also have capable playmakers in their receiving corps, as well as a prodigious talent at QB who appears to be bubbling up for a breakout game.
The Titans are likely to score early and often. If the Jaguars can keep pace, both teams should stay fairly balanced, while if the Titans build a lead then we should see them ride Henry and the Jaguars take to the air. It is highly unlikely the Jaguars build an early lead, as they will struggle to slow down the Titans. However, in the rare event that the game went that way, it would lead to heavy Jaguars rushing as they hold on for dear life; the Titans would be highly unlikely to abandon the run as they will know they can score points in any means necessary, and that the Jags will tighten up if they get a lead.
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- JAC has scored just 21, 13, 19, 21 points
- TEN has allowed 38, 30, 16, 27 points
- Lawrence has scored 6 TDs and thrown 7 INTs
- TEN has allowed 9 QB TDs to just 2 INT
- Fellow rookie Zach Wilson threw for 297:2:1 vs TEN last week
- 2021 QBs vs TEN: Kyler (289:4:1) // Russ (343:2) // Wentz (194:0) // Wilson (297:2:1)
- All four QBs have been between 31 & 37 pass att vs TEN
- Lawrence had 51 att in a W1 blowout loss, and has thrown 33, 34, 24 times since
- Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
- Five WRs vs TEN in 2021 have scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1)
- JAC targets: Jones (9, 11, 8, 3) // Viska (9, 7, 4, 7) // Chark (12, 4, 6, 0)
- Chark was injured for the year at the start of the previous game
- Tavon Austin had 3 targets and played the majority of the game following Chark’s departure
- MJJ as JAC’s #1 WR: 5:77:1 // 6:55:1 // 6:62 // 3:24
- MJJ vs TEN in 2020: 10:112:1 (12 tg)
- TEN ranks 24th in defensive rush DVOA
- RB total yds vs TEN: Edmonds (106), Conner (53) // Carson (31) // Taylor (72), Hines (79) // Carter (34), Coleman (31)
- Robinson rushing 2021: 5:25 // 11:47 // 15:88:1 // 18:78:2
- Robinson has targets of 6, 3, 6, 2
- Robinson has seven games of 25+ rec yds in his short career
- Robinson’s share of JAC RB touches: (11/22) // (14/18) // (21/29) // (20/22)
- Hyde missed the last game due to injury
- JAC is giving up the 2nd highest yds/att (9.6)
- Tanny’s yds/att by game: 6.1 // 8.7 // 7.3 // 6.1
- The two worse TEN offensive performances have included Tanny being sacked a combined 13 times
- JAC’s five sacks are the fewest in the NFL
- QBs vs JAC: Tyrod (291:2) // Teddy (328:2) // Kyler (316:0:1) // Burrow (348:2)
- Each QB has just 33, 34, 34, 32 pass att vs JAC
- Since last year, the game scores of his 8 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16
- JAC has already allowed five 100+ yd WRs: Cooks (5:132) // Sutton (9:159) // Green (5:112), Kirk (7:104) // Boyd (9:118)
- JAC is facing the fourth highest defensive aDOT
- TEN WRs aDOT: Brown (15.2) // Julio (13.3)
- TEN WRs vs JAC in 2020: Brown (DNP // 7:112:1) // Davis (3:36:1 // 3:34)
- Rush & rec yds by backfields vs JAC: HOU (120, 24) // DEN (95, 48) // ARI (69, 59) // CIN (74, 15)
- DK pts for each backfield vs JAC: HOU (36.4) // DEN (14.3) // ARI (32.8) // CIN (16.9)
- Henry’s touches in 2021: (17 att, 4 tg) // (35 att, 6 tg) // (28 att, 3 tg) // (33 att, 2 tg)
- After TEN’s weak showing in W1, Henry has rushed for 182, 113, & 157 yds
- Henry vs JAC in 2020: 25:84 // 26:215:2, 2:7