Week 5 Matchups

Kickoff Thursday, Oct 7th 8:20pm Eastern

Rams (
28) at

Hawks (

Over/Under 53.5


Key Matchups
Rams Run D
7th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
23rd DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
20th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
25th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
22nd DVOA/30th Yards per pass


Ohhhhh baby. Welcome to Week 5, in which we have some really awesome Showdown games (plus an extra Showdown game with the London game!). We start out with the Rams visiting the Seahawks in a 54.5 total game, with the visitors favored by 2.5. Looks like we’re in for a shootout!

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Los Angeles

On the Rams side, there was some rumbling about Sony Michel eating into Darrell Henderson’s workload a bit after Henderson picked up an injury so early in the season. Turns out that was . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 9:30am Eastern

Jets (
21.5) at

Falcons (

Over/Under 45.5


Key Matchups
Jets Run D
9th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
6th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
17th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
23rd DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
21st DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
25th DVOA/11th Yards per pass


We get our first London game this week, which means an extra nicely-sized Showdown! This game carries a total of 46 with the Falcons favored by a field goal, but at least in my mind, this game has an extremely wide range of outcomes, which opens up a lot of great tournament strategies.

New York

On the Jets side, it looks like rookie Michael Carter is taking over the lead role in this backfield, though it’s still a split without any sort of bell cow. Carter played 51% of the snaps last week, his . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
19.75) at

Vikings (

Over/Under 49.5


Key Matchups
Lions Run D
26th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
28th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
28th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
15th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
19th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
15th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
26th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
7th DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • The big injury stories from this game are Vikings running back Dalvin Cook and Lions tackle Penei Sewell, both of whom have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday)
  • Both teams have allowed top ten fantasy points per game to opposing backfields
  • The Lions struggle to defend the deep areas of the field in the passing game, something that could spell trouble against Justin Jefferson and these Vikings
  • This game has all the makings of a shootout, which likely comes down to the Lions ability to finish drives

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn’s running back-centric offense aims to incorporate deep passing through the establishment of a power run game. One of the biggest problems for the Lions has been an inability to attack the deeper areas of the field up to this point, due in part to the injury to Tyrell Williams and in part to a quarterback who struggles to push the ball downfield. Jared Goff’s 6.5 intended air yards per pass attempt ranks third lowest in the NFL of qualifying quarterbacks. Detroit’s seventh-ranked situation-neutral pass rate is a large function of a team that ranks in the top half of the league in drive success rate but the bottom half of the league in points per drive. Overall, the Lions play at the league’s 27th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and have been forced to march the field through the run game and short passing game.

The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.545 net-adjusted line yards metric but standout rookie lineman Penei Sewell has yet to practice this week, something to monitor heading into the weekend. Lions running backs typically see a 65/35 snap rate split, with D’Andre Swift operating as the primary running back and Jamaal Williams operating as the change of pace back. The biggest thing to note from this running back rotation is that each back is fully capable in both the run game and pass game, meaning we don’t see the typical “early-down back and third-down back” split from these two. Instead, the Lions rotate them in an attempt to keep both fresh throughout the game. D’Andre Swift has seen a whopping 29 targets so far this year, the same number as Amari Cooper. His weekly touches have been highly influenced by game flow due to the wide range of offensive snaps per game from the Lions. Jamaal Williams has seen between 10 and 18 running back opportunities in each game so far, with only five total targets over the previous three games after nine (!!!) in Week 1. Pay attention to this trend moving forward.

The Lions have the lowest wide receiver target rate in the league at 50%, instead targeting running backs and tight ends at an above average rate. Although he failed to practice on Wednesday, tight end TJ Hockenson returned to a limited practice status on Thursday, but it is definitely a situation to monitor as he is such a large part of this pass offense. The struggles of the Minnesota pass defense have been in the deep areas of the field as the team has actually allowed a below average completion percentage but the sixth deepest yards per completion. This spells trouble with how the Lions have looked to attack this season with the personnel they have on hand.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Minnesota holds a large delta between their situation-neutral pace of play and their actual pace of play, with almost six full seconds of difference between the two. What this tells me is two things: the back end of their defense has underperformed (which subsequent metrics will corroborate) and they are quick to abandon their preferred methods of attack on offense (again, subsequent metrics will corroborate). Their 61% situation-neutral pass rate ranks in the top ten in the league and they are more than comfortable attacking all areas of the field on offense. The running back position is a massive part of this offense, with the lead back (either a healthy Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison) seeing no fewer than 25 running back opportunities until a Week 4 game which saw Dalvin play through an ankle injury. This makes his health of great importance to the overall fantasy appeal to the rest of the offense.

The run game matchup could not be any better for the Vikings, yielding a net-adjusted line yards metric of 4.33 against the team allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. We can expect overall fantasy production from this backfield but the level of fantasy appeal depends largely on Dalvin Cook’s status. Should he attempt to play through his ankle injury after failing to practice (as of Thursday), we are likely to see a relative timeshare similar to what we saw in Week 4, leaving both Dalvin and Alexander Mattison of little appeal. Should Dalvin miss, Alexander Mattison becomes one of the better running back plays on the slate.

The aggressive forward-back defense of the Lions has ceded some serious downfield passing up to this point. The Lions have allowed the deepest yards per completion in the NFL by a wide margin at 14.8, which is almost two full yards more than the Titans. The matchup sets up extremely well for Justin Jefferson and his downfield role, with expected volume the only hurdle for him to overcome here. In all, the Vikings should have no issues finding success in any way they choose to attack, which is likeliest to come through the running back position and Justin Jefferson.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has all the makings of a shootout but the end result likely comes down to Detroit’s ability to find the end zone at the end of their drives (although they rank towards the top of the league in drive success rate, they have struggled in the red zone). Either way, we should expect the Vikings to find offensive success on the scoreboard, likely forcing the same dink-and-dunk aerial aggression that we have grown accustomed to from the Lions. Since it is so unlikely the Vikings fail in this spot, we’re left with a tight range of expected volume outcomes when it comes to the Lions, while volume for the Vikings likely depends on Detroit’s ability to match Minnesota’s success.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • DET is 26th in adjusted seconds per play & 30th in adjusted pass rate, per numberFire
  • MIN is 7th in adjust seconds per play & 11th in adjusted pass rate
  • Both DET & MIN have had the totals go OVER in 3 of their last 5 games
  • The OVER has hit in 7 of MIN’s last 8 home games
  • The 49 total is the 6th highest among all Week 5 games

Jared Goff

  • Goff ranks 28ths in PFF grade
  • His DK log as a Lion: 32.92 // 20.44 // 9.08 // 18.76
  • In a 35 game sample, Goff averages 18.97 DK points in games with a Vegas total of 48+
  • Goff ranks 16th in DK ppg among all QBs this year
  • MIN ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to the position (20.7)

DET Passing Attack

  • DET uses 11 personnel 68% of snaps, 12 personnel at 15%, and 21 personnel at 9%
  • Team snap shares: TJ Hockenson 85.5% // Kalif Raymond 72.4% // Quintez Cephus 67.1% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 60.4% // Trinity Benson 41.3% // Darren Fells 32.2% // Tyrell Williams 26.2% (remains on IR)
  • Team target shares: Hockenson 17.9% // Raymond 13.6% // Cephus 12.3% // Amon 11.1% // Benson 8%
  • Hockenson ranks 5th in snap share, 6th in target share, 5th in WOPR, and 5th in DK ppg among all TEs
  • Hockenson against MIN: 6.2 // 14.9 // 5.5
  • Hockenson’s DK log this year: 25.7 // 20.6 // 3 // 8.2
  • In 32 career games, he averages 9.92 ppg, including 3 instances over 20
  • MIN allows 11.1 DK ppg to the TE position (13th)
  • Raymond has hit 4x his Week 5 salary just once in 12 career games
  • Two of his three best scores have come as a member of the Lions
  • Last season in TEN, his snap share was just 23.11%
  • Cephus has never hit 4x his Week 5 salary
  • Three of his five double digit DK pt games have come this season (just 15 career games)
  • His snap share was just 34.86% last year
  • Amon’s DK log: 4.3 // 4.8 // 1.2 // 13
  • Amon leads DET in slot snap share with 85.2%
  • MIN has held opposing slot WRs to lower outputs, with the leading slot snap share of all four opponents (CIN, AZ, SEA, CLE) never topping 11 DK points this year
  • MIN ranks 20th in DK ppg to WRs (41.5)


  • Team snap shares: D’Andre Swift 65.7% // Jamaal Williams 37.5%
  • Target share: Swift 17.9 % // Williams 8.6%
  • Touches per game: Swift 16 // Williams 13.8
  • Among all RBs, Swift ranks 10th in snap share, 2nd in target share, 10th in DK ppg, and 11th in RBOPR
  • Swift has averaged 15.51 DK ppg in 17 career games
  • Two of his five 20+ pt career efforts have come in the four games this season
  • Williams’s DK log versus MIN: 5.8 // 10.1 // 0.5 // 13.1 // 7.2 // 8.2 // 18.2
  • MIN has allowed 26.3 ppg to RBs (21st)

Kirk Cousins

  • Cousins ranks 7th in PFF grade
  • He’s averaging 22.4 DK ppg (13th)
  • As a Viking, out of 23 games with a Vegas total of 48+, he’s averaged 21.8
  • Cousins has faced DET 7 times (once with WAS)
  • That DK log: 25.5 // 8.86 // 22.22 // 32.22 // 13.58 // 20.8 // 37.3
  • In three home games, he’s averaging just 14.41 against DET
  • DET allows 19.6 ppg to QBs (14th)

MIN Passing Attack

  • MIN uses 11 personnel 50% of snaps, 12 personnel at 12%, 21 personnel at 13%
  • Team snap shares: Adam Thielen 96.9% // Justin Jefferson 87.4% // Tyler Conklin 76.6% // KJ Osborn 66.1%
  • Target shares: Jefferson 23.4% // Thielen 21.5% // Osborn 15.2% // Conklin 13.9%
  • Thielen ranks 2nd in snap share, 22nd in target share, and 31st in WOPR among all WRs
  • Thielen is averaging 17.7 DK ppg through four games
  • Thielen’s DK log against DET: 10.8 // 13.3 // 9.9 // 16.9 // 12.7 // 13.3 // 9.5 // 5.8 // 9.7
  • Jefferson ranks 14th in total air yards, 9th in air yard market share, and 13th in WOPR
  • Jefferson is averaging 20.3 DK ppg
  • Jefferson averages 23.56 DK ppg at home versus 14.08 on the road (10 games total for each)
  • Osborn’s DK log: 14.6 // 20.1 // 4.6 // 6.6
  • Osborn leads the team in slot snaps
  • Slot snap leaders (in total snaps from the slot for their team) against DET this season: Deebo Samuel 9/12-189-1 // Davante Adams 8/9-121-0 // Mark Andrews 5/7-109-0 // Cole Kmet 1/3-6-0
  • DET’s allowing 35.4 DK ppg to WR rooms (13th)
  • Conklin’s target share ranks 13th among all TEs, just ahead of Tyler Higbee
  • Conklin’s DK log this year: 8.1 // 3.5 // 20 // 5.8
  • DET allows 12 DK ppg to TEs (16th)


  • In his two healthiest weeks this year, Dalvin Cook averaged 465 snaps (9th), 5.3 targets (6th), 20.3 touches (5th), and 2nd in RBOPR among all RBs
  • Dalvin averages 21.66 DK pts at home, 19.55 on the road
  • In games with Vegas totals of 48+, he averages 21.3
  • Dalvin’s DK log vs. DET: 13.4 // 14.9 // 13.8 // 30.9 // 15.5 // 42.2
  • Mattison had 51 snaps in Dalvin’s absence Week 3
  • He had just 23 in Week 4 with Dalvin back in the lineup
  • He went from 8 targets to 0
  • And 32 touches to 10
  • DET ranks 29th in DK ppg to RBs (31.2)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Saints (
23) at


Over/Under 43.5


Key Matchups
Saints Run D
21st DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
29th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Commanders Run D
10th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
22nd DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
17th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
19th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • These are not the Saints we have become accustomed to over the last decade and a half, as they operate at a plodding pace and have one of the broadest touch distributions in the NFL.
  • Washington enters Week 5 at 2-2 but their record is a bit of an illusion since they have the second worst point differential among the 20 NFL teams who are currently .500 or better
  • Washington’s two wins have come against the 1-3 Falcons (only win was against the Giants) and the 1-3 Giants (only win was in OT against the Saints)
  • The likeliest game plan for both teams involves banking on their opponent’s QB to make some costly turnovers to give them control, rather than aggressive schemes and play calling to try to take control

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

After four weeks, New Orleans ranks 30th in the NFL in Situational Pace of Play and has the heaviest run-to-pass ratio (58% run, 42% pass) of all 32 NFL teams. To say that they have pumped the brakes on the fast break offense we became accustomed to during the Drew Brees era would be a huge understatement. Making matters worse from a fantasy perspective, they are spreading the small number of offensive touches available across a wide variety of players. In Week 4, six players received a carry and 11 players saw at least one target. The lone fantasy viable player on this team is Alvin Kamara based on raw volume, but even he has seen his role changed dramatically and operated as a between the 20’s grinder last week, receiving zero targets for the first time in his career, while ceding goal line rushes to Taysom Hill. What a massive waste of a dynamically talented player in the prime of his career. We can only hope that Sean Payton comes to his senses going forward and finds ways to get Kamara involved with the money touches to provide a spark this offense desperately needs.

Enter Week 5 and a matchup with Washington’s defense that saw an offseason full of hype after a great 2020 campaign. Washington has responded to those expectations with the 28th-rated defense in DVOA while giving up an average of 30.5 points per game, despite playing zero offenses currently ranked in the top 10 in DVOA. The strength of the Washington defense has been their run defense by a significant margin; they rank 11th in DVOA run defense while ranking 29th in pass defense by the same metric. This results in a strength-on-strength situation where the best way to attack Washington is through the air but that is the exact opposite of how New Orleans has preferred to operate to start the season. The Saints have one of the top defenses in the league, and in this matchup, they are likely to bank on their defense which is the #1 graded run defense by PFF, forcing Washington to the air and creating turnovers.

Given Washington’s struggles in pass defense, it is possible that Payton will dial up a couple of designed looks that attack weaknesses he spots in their 32nd graded coverage unit by PFF. However, the method of attack is likely to be very similar to the extremely conservative plan they used last week, with the hope being that their defense doesn’t collapse at the end as they did against the Giants when they surrendered 17 points in the last 6:52 of regulation plus overtime. The Saints coaching staff is likely to view that outcome as an outlier and bank on being able to ice the game this time if they can put themselves in a similar situation. This should result in a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara rushes (and some Taysom Hill mixed in) with another game of limited pass attempts (the Saints have yet to attempt over 26 passes in a game this year).

How washington Will Try To Win ::

New Orleans has a very strong defense in all areas, ranking #2 overall in defensive DVOA and top six in both run and pass defense. Taylor Heinicke was a mess against Buffalo’s #1 ranked defense in Week 3 and we shouldn’t expect much more from him in this matchup. In that matchup against the Bills, Washington managed 21 points, but that stat is misleading as their three scores were an Antonio Gibson screen pass that he turned into a 73-yard TD out of nowhere; a short field TD after a fumbled kick return; and a garbage time TD in the 4th quarter against backups. The rest of the game was a struggle, to say the least, with Washington turning the ball over three times and failing to crack 300 total yards despite Gibson’s huge play and mostly negative game script. Due to injuries, Heinicke will also have a tough time relying on his playmakers to make his job easier. Washington is likely to be without TE Logan Thomas while RB Antonio Gibson, WR Curtis Samuel, and WR Dyami Brown are all battling lower-body injuries of their own.

Given the defensive matchup and injury issues among their skill players, Washington is likely to play conservatively and spread the ball around. One area of uncertainty lies in the Saints’ pass rush, as they have somehow managed to have the #6 DVOA pass defense despite being the 32nd graded pass rush by PFF. This divergence of ranks is likely to correct at some point and could be one of two situations. The first is that the Saints secondary and scheme is so good that it is able to cover up for their poor pass rush. The other is a case where their statistical ranks are inflated due to the QBs they have faced:

  • A rusty Aaron Rodgers
  • Sam Darnold in a blowout where he didn’t have any reason to press the issue
  • Mac Jones in a slug-it-out affair
  • Daniel Jones (who actually threw for over 400 yards)

Due to how difficult it is to run on New Orleans (we have much greater certainty that their run defense is for real, ranking 3rd by DVOA and 1st by PFF), we are likely to see Washington turn to a more pass-heavy game script, but attempt to do so in a very conservative way. Heinicke is averaging 5.7 rush attempts per game in his three starts, and coaches will likely emphasize to him this week to be patient and take the easy passes while utilizing his legs to extend plays, or tuck and run if nothing is there. He should have plenty of time to make decisions if he stays patient, as Washington boasts the #3 ranked pass blocking unit by PFF against the aforementioned 32nd graded pass rush of the Saints.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game is set up as a game of chicken, literally. Both coaches have every reason to play extremely conservative from the outset of the game, trying to maintain field position and avoid turnovers, while hoping the opponent’s QB makes a mistake that puts them in control. Due to the nature of both sides of the game, and the coaches’ awareness of those respective matchups, neither team is likely to significantly turn up the tempo or aggressiveness early in the game. Even if one team were to jump ahead by a couple of scores in the first half, the opponent likely wouldn’t have a huge fear of the leading team running away with it and putting up 30+ points. This means that both teams will feel comfortable staying with their game plans and prioritizing the efficiency of their drives late into the game rather than needing to attack, even if the game script turns negative. The Saints have elite personnel in their secondary and Washington’s receiving corps is banged up, so even if Washington turns more pass-heavy, it is likely to be done in a very conservative way that doesn’t push the game the same way that a pass-first approach normally would.

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • Excluding a rested starters W17 game in 2018, Sean Payton went 10-7 vs Ron Rivera’s Panthers from 2011-2019
  • WAS has allowed 20, 30, 43, 30 points in 2021
  • NOR has scored 38, 7, 28, 21 points in 2021

Jameis Winston:

  • Jameis Winston has thrown the ball just 20, 22, 21, 23 times
  • Last week was Winston’s first game above just 150 yds with 226 yds, and he had a 50 yd TD taken off the board before NOR turned the ball over on the following play
  • WAS is allowing 7.4 yds/att (15th in NFL)
  • WAS has allowed 10 TDs to 1 INT
  • Winston’s TD:INT ratio by week: 5:0 // 0:2 // 2:0 // 1:0
  • Taysom has 3 rush TDs in the Green Zone already this season
  • WAS ranks 29th in defensive pass DVOA


  • Thomas & Tre’Quan are still expected out at least one more game
  • WAS has already allowed six WRs over 80 rec yds: Keenan (100), Williams (82:1) // Shep (94) // Beasley (98), Sanders (94:2) // Ridley (80)
  • Slayton also would’ve broke 80 but dropped wide open TD
  • With the Saints low pass volume, no Saints WR has more than 80 yds, and the two who broke 70 did so on just 2 rec each with one deep completion each
  • WAS has allowed the most completed air yds in the NFL (197/g)
  • Targets of 20+ yds: Callaway (1:58, 2tg) // Harris (1:55:1, 4tg) // Stills (0, 2tg)
  • Stills had a bomb TD called back due to penalty

Alvin Kamara:

  • Kamara’s only game with 20+ att in his first four years came in his 6 TD game vs MIN, in which by the end NOR was trying to help him break the record
  • Through four games in 2021, Kamara already has three games of 20+ att (20, 24, 26) and his backup Tony Jones was carted off the field in W4
  • WAS ranks 11th in defensive rush DVOA
  • Total yds of RBs with 10+ touches vs WAS: Ekeler (57:1) // Saquon (69) // Moss (91:1), Singletary (26) // CPatt (116:3), Davis (26:1)
  • 42 of CPatt’s 116 yds came on a deep TD pass
  • Kamara has just 13 tg on the season, and all have come short of 10 yds

Taylor Heinicke:

  • NOR has allowed 0, 2, 1, 2 TDs to Rodgers, Darnold, Mac Jones, & Daniel Jones
  • After zero 300 yd passers vs NOR in 2020, Darnold & Jones have both cleared 300 vs NOR in 2021
  • Heinicke passed for 336 & 290 vs NYG & ATL, but just 212 vs BUF, of which 73 came on a dump off to Gibson
  • Defensive pass DVOA ranks: NYG (24th), ATL (28th) // BUF (1st), NOR (6th)
  • With a still stout run defense, NOR has faced pass att of 35, 38, 51, 40
  • Heinicke’s pass att in starts: 46, 24, 33

Terry McLaurin:

  • McLaurin targets in Heinicke starts: 14, 7, 13
  • McLaurin’s share of Heinicke’s yds: (107/336) // (62/212) // (123/290)
  • #1 WRs vs NOR: Adams (5:56) // Moore (8:79:1) // Meyers (9:94) // Golladay (6:116)
  • Only TB & WAS have faced more WR targets than NOR
  • Snaps in slot vs wide: McLaurin (55 : 187) // Lattimore (7 : 157)

Antonio Gibson:

  • WAS RB rush att: Gibson (20 // 13 // 12 // 14) // McKissic (1 // 4 // 3 // 7)
  • WAS RB targets: Gibson (5 // 2 // 2 // 2) // McKissic (1 // 6 // 2 // 5)
  • WAS RB total yds: Gibson (108, 73, 104, 75) // McKissic (8, 93, 38, 59)
  • McKissic & Heinicke each have two rush att inside-5 to Gibson’s one
  • The only RBs over just 20 rush yds vs NOR thus far are CMC & Saquon, and they still combined for just 124 yds on 37 att in 9 quarters
  • RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7)
  • That’s 12 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 57 games
  • 12/12 scored a TD /// 5/12 scored 2 TDs /// 9/12 had 5+ rec /// 12/12 had 6+ DK rec pts
  • Of the three without 5 rec, one had 82 yd TD, one caught a WR pass TD, one had 28 rush att, and all three scored 2 TDs
  • The two that have topped 20 DK pts in 2021 (CMC, Saquon) have combined for 3 TDs, 10 rec, 29.9 DK rec pts
  • Outside of Gibson’s 73 yd house call vs BUF, Gibson has just 7 rec for 34 yds

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Patriots (
23.5) at

Texans (

Over/Under 39.0


Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
10th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
32nd DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
3rd DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
31st DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Texans Run D
24th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
21st DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
18th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
25th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This game environment will be one of the worst we see this season
  • The Patriots threw the ball 91 times the past two weeks because of game plan
  • Damien Harris has 20 carry / 2 TD upside if he maintains the coaching staff’s trust
  • Brandin Cooks has volume on his side

How new england Will Try To Win ::

“Bill, you’re letting a lot of folks down. Folks you don’t want to let down,” says Dean Blandino, twirling a fork full of pasta at an Italian restaurant across from Gene Steratore as Bill Belichick walks in after last week’s loss. Maybe Belichick isn’t letting the NFL mob down, but he is letting down a lot of supporters that want to credit him with the Patriots success over the past two decades.

The Pats are in a tough spot. Sitting at 1-3, with their only victory coming against the hapless Jets, serious questions are starting to be asked about Bill Belichick’s ability to win games without the best QB to ever play. Those questions are fair. The Patriots were given a mulligan on last year’s rebuilding process, but after a flurry of spending (leading to the recent trade of Stephon Gilmore), and what is supposed to be an elite coaching staff, a return to success was expected this season. Instead, the “Patriot way,” is looking an awful lot like it was always the “Brady way.”

Bill Belichick does deserve credit for his Week 4 approach against the mighty Bucs. Outgunned, and desperately searching for a path to victory, he opted for the only approach that gave his team a chance to win which was totally abandoning the run (40 passes versus eight rushes in a game that was close throughout) and assaulting the only vulnerable part of the Bucs defense, through the air. This game plan further reinforced that the coaching staff trusts Mac Jones enough to attack the relative weakness of a defense.

Facing a pathetic Texans defense that is void of talent at all levels and has failed to hold an opponent under 21 points this season, expect the Patriots to lean on their run game after skewing pass heavy last week. The coaching staff trusts Mac Jones, but they also know that they have no reason to expose him to mistakes in a game they should be able to easily control with their defense and running game.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Houston isn’t as much trying to win games as they are trying to survive. Coming off a 40-0 drubbing at the hands of the Bills, a shell-shocked Texans team draws a desperate Patriots squad that is essentially playing for their season. The Texans haven’t been competitive since Davis Mills took over, losing 17-7 in the second half against the Browns, 24-9 against the Panthers, and 40-0 against the Bills. The Davis Mills led Texans have scored two touchdowns in their past ten quarters of football. Ouch.

It’s hard to take much from last week’s “game” because the Texans lost so badly that they gave up. Their 21 pass attempts against 18 team carries would indicate a balanced approach. In a 40-0 rout, we would expect to see a team throw the ball a lot more than we saw from the Texans. They were content to play as if the game was 0-0 because they knew trying to catch up was a hopeless endeavor. The Patriots aren’t as high-powered as the Bills so expect a balanced approach where the Texans attempt to “hide” their QB, before ultimately giving up, or letting him turn the ball over late in catch-up mode.  

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a miniature 39.5 total that reflects a game environment where both teams are expected to try and grind out a win. The Texans have a sad 15.25 team total, demonstrating just how atrocious this offense has been since Mills took over. The most likely game flow is highly likely in this contest. The Texans appear to have a stronger pass defense (8th in DVOA) than run defense (31st in DVOA) but that number is slanted because it’s so easy to run on the Texans and their offense doesn’t push other teams to pass. With no clear “path of least resistance” against a Texans defense that is nothing but “least resistance,” expect the Patriots to lean on their O-line and ground attack while allowing the Texans offense to struggle. The Patriots should be successful in this approach and slowly pull away as the game reaches the fourth quarter. The Texans are likely to give up, preferring to keep the scoreboard close rather than allowing Davis Mills to throw interceptions.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • HOU has scored 16 points in 10 quarters with Davis Mills
  • NE pts allowed by defense: MIA (17) // NYJ (6) // NOR (21) // TB (19)

Davis Mills:

  • NE ranks 2nd in defensive pass DVOA
  • NE has 5 INT, 4 of which came vs rookie Zach Wilson
  • Rookie QBs vs NE since 2010: 14 TDs, 25 INT (per Dwprix)
  • In 10 Quarters, Mills has a total of 357 yds, 2 TD, 5 INT, 8 sacks

Brandin Cooks:

  • Five WRs have 60+ yds vs NE: Parker (81), Waddle (61:1) // Berrios (73) // Evans (75), Brown (63)
  • NE held rookie Zach Wilson’s top WR (Corey Davis) to 2 rec for 8 yds
  • Cooks targets on Mills pass att: 9/18, 11/28, 7/21
  • Cooks in 10 quarters with Mills: 4:28:1, 9:112, 5:47
  • Since 2014, Home WRs averaging 7+ targets, on teams implied for under 19 pts, have failed to meet salary based expectations 58% of the time
  • Only 5 of the 58 WRs in that sample reached 20 DK pts, and just one reached 25 DK pts
  • Cooks in W3 vs CAR (23.7 DK pts) is one of the 5, though HOU is implied for an even worse 16.5 pts this week vs NE

Mac Jones:

  • QBs vs HOU: Lawrence (332:3:3) // Mayfield (213:1:1, rush TD) // Darnold (304:0, 2 rush TD) // Allen (248:2:1, 6:41), Trubisky rush TD
  • Mac Jones has a combined 1 att for -3 rush yds in three games, and 6 att for 28 yds in the other (vs NOR)
  • Jones passing: 281:1 // 186:0 // 270:1:3 // 275:2:1
  • In NE’s one win, a blowout, Jones threw just 30 pass att (39, 51, 40 in the others)
  • NE is currently an 8.5 point favorite on the road


  • Targets: Meyers (9, 6, 14, 12) // Agholor (7, 3, 8, 5) // Bourne (3, 3, 8, 5)
  • WRs with 9 tg vs HOU: Chark (3:86:1) // MJJ (5:77:1) // Viska (7:50) // Moore (8:126) // Diggs (7:114)
  • NE’s highest scoring WR by game: Agholor (18.2) // Meyers (7.8) // Bourne (21.6) // Meyers (16.8)


  • Routes per dropback: Jonnu (48%, 42%, 27%, 38%) // Henry (58%, 76%, 68%, 64%)
  • Targets: Jonnu (5, 5, 6, 5) // Henry (3, 4, 6, 5)
  • Jonnu somehow has 3 more targets despite a large discrepancy in routes run
  • aDOT: Jonnu (3.7) // Henry (7.4)
  • RZ targets: Jonnu (5) // Henry (2); each scored their first TD last week
  • Henry has 30+ yds in every game (31, 42, 36, 32)

Damien Harris:

  • Backfields vs HOU are averaging 150 total yds; HOU allowed a league-high 190.9 yds/g in 2020 so that’s a positive increase for the Texans
  • Harris had 39 rush att in first two weeks, but just 10 in the last two vs NOR & TB, who rank 3rd & 4th in defensive rush DVOA
  • HOU ranks 31st in defensive rush DVOA
  • James White is done for the season, JJ Taylor fumbled on one of two touches last week, Stevenson has two touches on the season, Bolden is historically a special teams player and still only has 4 rush att to 10 targets in the last two games
  • Harris with 15+ rush att in career: 17:100 // 16:102:1 // 22:121 // 16:80 // 23:100 // 16:62:1

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
18.5) at

Bucs (

Over/Under 48.0


Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
9th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
30th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
25th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
11th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
13th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
14th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • Miami has struggled to move the ball offensively but their relative strength matches up well here with the weakness of the Bucs defense
  • Tampa Bay is coming off an ugly, emotional win at New England. They should be focused here and want to play a clean game to get back on track after a poor offensive showing
  • This game sets up as one that could have a lot of plays due to the likelihood that Miami leans pass-heavy, and the efficiency with which the Bucs should move the ball
  • Dolphins Head Coach Brian Flores is a Belichick disciple and is likely to try to implement a similar plan to the one New England used to slow down Tampa last week

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Miami’s offensive line is a mess. Ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate and 27th in adjusted line yards, they are poor in both the run and pass game. The result has been Jacoby Brissett attempting 119 passes over the past three weeks to the tune of 583 passing yards, an average of 4.9 yards per attempt. To put that in perspective, the lowest team in yards per attempt in 2020 was the Eagles at 6.2, and there are currently six teams in the NFL averaging more yards per RUSH than the Dolphins are getting from Brissett pass attempts. The Dolphins also have the 29th ranked rushing offense by DVOA and are facing Tampa’s top-5 run defense, making it highly unlikely they have success on the ground. 

The weakness of the Tampa defense has been their secondary as they have given up some very good performances this year. However, with the ineptness of the Dolphins offensive line, it is unlikely Miami will be able to truly attack that weakness. There really isn’t a whole lot further that we need to dig here, as incompetence in the trenches stomps out any other things the Dolphins would try to exploit in this game. Miami will need a host of things to go their way — some fluky bounces, busted coverages or missed tackles, maybe a key injury for the Bucs early — in order to keep this one close into the second half.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

There are two issues at play here that will dictate how Tampa Bay approaches this game. First, Miami’s defense definitely encourages offenses towards a run-heavy approach due to their high-end personnel in the secondary and poor middle of the defense. Second, the Bucs offense (and Tom Brady in particular) looked the worst they have all season last week at New England. 

Last week, I had the Edge writeup for the Colts/Dolphins game and talked about how the Colts were likely to attack that run defense weakness, in what was projected as a very competitive game, and the Colts lacking high-end passing game talent. This week could not be more different. The Bucs are ten point favorites and have to view the Dolphins as a team they can and should take it to. Elite teams like the Bucs do not have their tendencies decided by inferior competition, rather they dictate terms to the teams they are facing. By that I mean, sure the Bucs know they can probably run the ball on the Dolphins here but they also believe in who they are and won’t be skewing to some crazy run-heavy splits just to exploit that. Coming off last week’s ugly game, I expect the Bucs to want to put up a clean game with some explosiveness and chunk plays.

After a great 2020 season, the Dolphins’ pass defense has been disappointing by their standards to start the season and is not going to strike fear in the Bucs. All-Pro CB Xavien Howard has been disappointing by his standards, ranking 47th among qualifying CBs in PFF coverage grade. If Howard shadows, it would likely be to follow Mike Evans, but all of the Bucs WRs are talented enough to win any matchup. Even if Howard were to play at his All-Pro level from past seasons, the Bucs have the weapons to simply target other matchups. If the Bucs can score points early, the Dolphins have almost no chance with Jacoby Brissett throwing dump-offs all game. This is the 2021 NFL, you don’t go about trying to score bunches of points by pounding the ball up the middle against bad teams when you have an MVP candidate as your quarterback.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bucs should be aggressive in this spot against a struggling team that they should be able to move the ball on with relative ease. The Bucs will also likely be aggressive on the defensive side of the ball, as Brissett fails to push the ball down the field; with the 31st graded pass-blocking offensive line by PFF, the Bucs will be able to mask their secondary deficiencies by getting to the quarterback early and often. This game has all the makings of a rout, with Tampa motivated and focused while Miami is going to have huge struggles to put points up while also struggling to keep Brady from moving the ball down the field. Because the Dolphins are likely to throw a lot of short passes, there is also a good chance that the Bucs see more opportunities in terms of drives and play volume than you would usually see in a spot like this. Tom Brady is not one to take his foot off the gas early and will likely stay aggressive deep into this game, even with a lead.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • Tampa Bay has the third highest implied team total of Week 5
  • Miami has the second lowest
  • Tampa’s -10.5 spread is the largest in Week 5
  • Tampa is 4-1 ATS in their last five games
  • Tampa is ranked first in adjusted pass rate, per numberFire
  • Miami ranks seventh in adjust pass rate

Jacoby Brissett

  • Brissett ranks 24th in PFF grade among QBs
  • Brissett has two seasons as a starter under his belt, 2017 & 2019 in Indianapolis
  • His ranking in PFF grades were 39th & 44th, respectively
  • In those seasons, he averaged 13.9 & 15.8 DK ppg
  • He’s averaging 18.03 this year
  • In all 32 career games, Brissett has exceeded 25 DK pts just twice
  • TB ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (26)

MIA Passing Attack

  • MIA has used 11 personnel on 55% of snaps and 12 personnel on 33%
  • Team snap shares: DeVante Parker 80.2% // Jaylen Waddle 77.6% // Mike Gesicki 60.5% // Durham Smythe 43.7% // Albert Wilson 33.5% // Will Fuller 31.1% // Adam Shaheen 25.9%
  • Target shares: Parker 21.3% // Waddle 20.7% // Gesicki 17.3%
  • No other WR or TE has received 10% of targets through four weeks
  • Fuller is now on IR
  • Albert Wilson had 2 and 6 targets in the games before Fuller made his debut
  • Parker ranks 17th in air yards, 16th in air yard market share, and 21st in WOPR among all players
  • He’s averaging 11.8 DK ppg this year
  • Out of 37 games in which his team’s implied total was 20 or less, here are Parker’s notable DK outputs: 24.6 // 21.6 // 21.9 // 22.4 // 23.5 // 37.9 // 24.7
  • Waddle’s DK log: 16.1 // 9.8 // 17.8 // 6.3
  • Waddle leads the WRs in slot usage (77.4%)
  • Slot WRs against TB this season: Cedrick Wilson 3/3-24-0 // Russell Gage 5/7-28-0 // Cooper Kupp 9/12-96-2 // Jakobi Meyers 8/11-70-0
  • Albert Wilson has hit 20+ DK points just three times out of 69 games
  • TB ranks 32nd in DK ppg to WRs (56.1)
  • Gesicki is 4th in air yards, 7th in target share, 2nd in air yard market share, 6th in WOPR, and 12th in DK ppg among all TEs this year
  • His DK log: 7.1 // 18.6 // 16.7
  • Gesicki’s notable DK scores out of 21 games with an implied total of 20 or less: 15.5 // 18.9 // 13.4 // 30
  • TB ranks 30th in DK ppg to TEs (17.5)


  • Team snap shares: Myles Gaskin 49% // Malcolm Brown 35.7% // Salvon Ahmed 16.7%
  • Target shares: Gaskin 10.7% // Ahmed 5.3% // Brown 2%
  • Touches per game: Gaskin 10.2 // Brown 6.5 // Ahmed 4
  • Brown has 8 red zone opportunities to Ahmed’s 3 and Gaskin’s 1
  • Gaskin’s DK log this season: 12.6 // 8.3 // 10.4 // 0.3
  • When his team is implied for 20 or fewer points, Gaskin has never hit 15 pts (only 5 games in the sample)
  • Tampa ranked 2nd in DK ppg to RBs in 2019 (17.1), 9th in 2020 (20.9), and currently 8th (19.7)

Tom Brady

  • Tom Brady holds the highest PFF grade among QBs through four games
  • Week 4 was the first time Brady did not score a passing TD since a 3-38 loss versus New Orleans in Week 9 last season
  • Brady has averaged 23.73 DK ppg as a Buccaneer
  • In 23 games, he has topped 30 pts 8 times
  • He’s scored at least 25 pts 11 times (48%)
  • Brady leads the league in attempts and completions within the red zone (3rd in TDs)
  • MIA ranks 11th in DK ppg to QBs (18.9)

TB Passing Attack

  • Tampa uses 11 personnel on 67% of snaps and 12 personnel on 22%
  • Team snap shares: Chris Godwin 94.3% // Mike Evans 84.9% // Gronk 54.8% // Brate 43.7% // Antonio Brown 39.4% // OJ Howard 29.4% // Scotty Miller 25.9% // Tyler Johnson 25.4%
  • Target shares: Evans 20.1% // Godwin 16.8% // Brown 11.4% // Gronk 11.4% // Brate 6.5%
  • Evans’s target counts: 6 // 9 // 10 // 12
  • Godwin’s: 14 // 5 // 7 // 5
  • Brown’s: 7 // 3 // – // 11
  • Gronk’s: 8 // 5 // 7 // –
  • Godwin ranks 4th in snap share among all players
  • Evans ranks 7th in total air yards
  • No Tampa WR ranks in the top 25 in target share, air yard market share, or WOPR
  • Godwin’s DK log this season: 27.5 // 16.2 // 19.6 // 8.5
  • Evans: 5.4 // 24.5 // 21.6 // 14.5
  • Brown: 26.7 // 2.7 // 13.3
  • MIA ranks 12th in ppg to WRs (33.9)
  • Gronk is tied for 1st among all players in red zone receiving TDs (4)
  • Among TEs, he’s 10th in targets, 9th in air yards, 10th in target share, 11th in air yard market share, 10th in WOPR, and 2nd in DK ppg (19.5)
  • Gronk’s DK log: 29 // 19.9 // 9.5
  • Gronk will now miss several weeks
  • Howard has blocked on 26.8% of his passing snaps
  • Brate has blocked on just 2.2%
  • Brate has run a route on 94.4% of his passing snaps to Howard’s 68.3%
  • MIA ranks 22nd in ppg to TEs (15.5)


  • Team snap shares: Leonard Fournette 58.4% // Ronald Jones 20.4% // Giovani Bernard 20.1%
  • Target shares: Fournette 10.3% // Gio 8.2% // Ronald 1.6%
  • Touches per game: Fournette 14.8 // Ronald 5.5 // Gio 4.3
  • Fournette’s DK log: 10.9 // 11.6 // 6.4 // 16.8
  • Ronald: 0.4 // 4.6 // 1.1 // 8.5
  • Gio: 3.2 // 3.6 // 20.1
  • In 19 games as a Buccaneer, Fournette has scored 20+ DK pts four times
  • MIA ranks 30th in ppg to RBs (33.4)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Packers (
26.5) at

Bengals (

Over/Under 50.5


Key Matchups
Packers Run D
32nd DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
4th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
8th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
7th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Bengals Run D
14th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
3rd DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
12th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
15th DVOA/21st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Impactful injuries to both sides of the ball for the Packers; left tackle David Bakhtiari remains out after his torn ACL last season, All-World corner Jaire Alexander left Week 4’s game with a shoulder injury late, Pro Bowl outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith remains out following back surgery, and guard Elgton Jenkins has missed the previous two contests with an ankle injury
  • Bengals have injuries of their own, with Joe Mixon picking up a “low-grade” lower ankle injury late in Week 4 and multiple members of their secondary struggling to maintain health
  • Bengals tight end CJ Uzomah is likely to generate buzz this week after his Week 4 explosion, but that was the first game all season in which he saw over two targets
  • Joe Mixon’s game day status is likely to have a large impact on the overall fantasy allure of both teams as it opens up a path to increased offensive plays run from scrimmage on both sides

How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::

After starting the season flat with a three-point showing against the Saints, the Packers are back to their slow, methodical, and efficient ways. Moderate pass rates, slow pace of play, and a high level of offensive efficiency are once again the name of the game here for the Packers. A standard week leaves the offense in the 65-70 offensive plays run from scrimmage range and Aaron Rodgers in the 32-36 pass attempt range. The biggest thing to note along those lines is that the efficiency that we’ve all grown accustomed to from this offense has returned after that Week 1 clunker, as the Packers are all the way up to seventh in the league in drive success rate after digging a significant hole in their first game of the season.

Aaron Jones has seen between 63% and 73% of the offensive snaps over the previous three weeks, which should be considered his likeliest range of outcomes as far as snap rate goes here. The Packers are completely content keeping his touches in the 18-24 range as they look to keep him healthy, typically leaving a handful of touches to AJ Dillon. The most telling stat to look at with respect to Jones’ capped touch potential comes from Dillon’s 16-opportunity Week 4 performance in a game the Packers controlled throughout (Jones saw 19). Basically, we can’t project more than 18-24 running back opportunities for Jones in even the most positive of game scripts. The matchup on the ground yields a below average 3.815 net-adjusted line yards metric and the Packers are likely to be without two starting members of their once-dominant offensive line.

The absence of Marquez Valdes-Scantling afforded a small boost to both Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb’s snap rates in Week 4, but the duo still only saw a combined nine targets. This is very much still Davante Adams’ world, the rest are just living in it. His moderate-for-him 11 targets in Week 4 came one week after he saw a whopping 54.54% of the available targets against the Niners, making him one of only a handful of NFL players capable of seeing more than half of the team’s available targets on any given week. The trio of Trae Waynes, Eli Apple, and Mike Hilton should be tasked with man-heavy coverage in Lou Anarumo’s defensive scheme against one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL against man coverage. Let’s just say I like Adams’ chances here. Both Allen Lazard and tight end Robert Tonyan should be on the field for 75-80% of the offensive snaps but both are secondary options in this passing attack. Slot man Randall Cobb scored two touchdowns in Week 4 but played only 46% of the offensive snaps and can’t be counted on for bankable volume and production.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals own the league’s second-slowest situation-neutral pace of play through four weeks, mixing a slow pace of play with elevated rush rates (sixth-highest situation-neutral rush rate at 47%). While it’s clear how they would like to try and win games, Week 5 should mark their toughest test of the season against a Packers team that has scored 35, 30, and 27 points following their Week 1 dismantling at the hands of the Saints. This could also be the first game they play without their workhorse running back in Joe Mixon, who suffered a “low-grade” ankle sprain late in Week 4. Keep an eye on his status throughout the week as Adam Schefter originally dubbed him week-to-week, which was swiftly followed up by a day-to-day declaration from head coach Zac Taylor. His game day status is likely to have a large effect on how the Bengals approach this game offensively. Furthering the wide range of potential paths of attack here is the likely absence of standout corner Jaire Alexander for the Packers, who suffered a shoulder injury late in Week 4. One last thing to keep in mind with respect to how the Bengals are likeliest to attack is the fact that Zac Taylor is very much a new-age coach that has shown a propensity to adapt his game plan as needed to best suit the available personnel and opponent. We’ll write up the remainder of this game under the assumption that both Joe Mixon and Jaire Alexander miss, and cover the scenario of Mixon playing in the tributary.

Should Joe Mixon miss, the Bengals are left with some combination of Samaje Perine and Chris Evans at running back. It is likeliest we see Perine step into the primary rushing duties while Evans handles the change of pace and pass-down duties. The matchup on the ground yields an above-average 4.55 net-adjusted line yards metric and should allow Taylor the ability to keep this team rather balanced for as long as his team keeps the score within reason. It remains to be seen how Taylor will handle a game plan without Mixon, but there is the possibility he opens up the offense earlier than he otherwise would in his absence. The final consideration to keep in mind here is the slow start from the Bengals Week 4 game against an inferior opponent that saw them trailing 14-0 at the half. Their first three possessions in the second half led to touchdowns and saw a 15-10 pass-to-rush ratio as the team played from behind. Now consider the likely absence of Mixon and injuries to the back half of the Packers defense and we could see a much more pass-heavy approach as Taylor looks to avoid a large deficit. The assumption of rational coaching is a dangerous game to play, but heavier pass game reliance seems to make the most sense here.

Speaking of the passing game, the Bengals are expecting Tee Higgins back from a two game absence this week. The NFL average for 11-personnel rates is 58% so far this season and the NFL average for wide receiver target rate is 61%. The Bengals have averaged 66% and 69%, respectively, in those two categories over the first four weeks, indicating a clear path of likeliest attack against a Packers secondary down to four healthy corners (assuming Kevin King returns from a concussion). We should see rookie Eric Stokes and Kevin King start on the perimeter, with Chandon Sullivan manning the slot. Rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has primarily played on the left side of the formation (70.5% of offensive snaps have come from that alignment), which means he should primarily see the sticky coverage of Eric Stokes (12 of 27 for only 106 yards and one touchdown allowed in primary coverage), leaving Kevin King to cover Tee Higgins and Chandon Sullivan to cover Tyler Boyd in the slot. King has been the most burnable member of this secondary over the previous 2.25 seasons while Sullivan has allowed a 111.5 quarterback rating against in a reserve role on 10 of 16 for 140 yards and a touchdown. Consider this a plus matchup for both Higgins and Boyd, with the very real possibility that we see an increase to the low 26.8 pass attempts per game seen from this offense up to this point. Finally, CJ Uzomah saw more than two targets for the first time in Week 4 which came in a game without Tee Higgins. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likeliest we see this game start out rather slow from a pace perspective with both teams clearly comfortable slowing things down. That said, the Packers are all the way up to seventh in the league in drive success rate on offense after starting the season with a complete dud against the Saints, meaning they have been highly efficient on offense over the previous three weeks. If we expect the Packers to put up points in just about any matchup, we should expect them to see success here against a defense with numerous injuries across the back half of their defense. When we then consider the likely absences of Bengals running back Joe Mixon and Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander, paired with a Packers defense ranked bottom six in the league in drive success rate allowed and points allowed per drive, we start to see a likeliest scenario where each offense is able to generate success on the scoreboard. This should keep both teams aggressive throughout the game and gives us a game environment where both volume and efficiency should largely be bankable from select pieces on both teams. 

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • As of Wednesday, this has the second highest total on the slate (51.5) & has moved up three points since opening
  • GB is favored by three
  • GB pts scored: PIT-27 // SF-30 // DET-35 // NO-3
  • CIN pts scored: JAX-24 // PIT-24 // CHI-17 // MIN 27 (OT)
  • CIN has scored 24 pts in regulation in three of four games & have just seven first quarter pts this season
  • CIN will have a few extra days rest coming off a Thursday win vs JAX

Aaron Rodgers: 

  • DK pts by week: vs PIT-24.10 // @ SF-19.00 // vs DET-26.60 // @ NO-3.30
  • Rodgers last 30+ DK pt game came against DET week 14
  • His last 300+ yd regular season game was in week 11 vs IND
  • CIN DK pts allowed to QB: Trevor Lawrence-17.76 // Ben Roethlisberger-18.22 // Andy Dalton/Justin Fields-13.24 // Kirk Cousins-25.04
  • This ranks 8th least DK pts to QBs (18.6/g)


  • GB RB snap share: Aaron Jones-64% // AJ Dillon-32%
  • Rush share: Jones-56% // Dillion-29%
  • Jones has 14 tgts, Dillon 6
  • Jones has six RZ tgs (2nd on team) and three RZ rec TDs (first on team)
  • All of his rec RZ TDs came week one vs DET
  • CIN allows a middling 24.1 DK pts to RBs
  • Opponents are rushing against CIN the seventh least at 37.69% of the time
  • CIN has faced pass heavy PIT (second in pass atts) but also run heavy CHI (10th in rush atts)

Davante Adams:

  • Adams makes up 36% of GB tgt share & 39% of GB pass yds
  • Tgts by week: 11 // 18 (vs SF who was missing both starting CBs by the end of the game) // 9 // 7
  • Adams NFL ranks: tgts/g-5th (11.25) // rec yds/g-5th (92.25)
  • CIN allowed 30.20 DK pts to Adam Theilan Week 1
  •  Other than that they haven’t allowed a WR over 20 DK pts but have only faced: CHI (Allen Robinson-17.00, Darnell Mooney-12.60 DK pts, ) //  PIT (Chase Claypool-18.60, JuJu Smith-Schuster-5.50) & JAX (Lavista Shenault-17.00, Marvin Jones-5.40) 
  • Adams has nine RZ targets, four RZ receptions, and one RZ TD (only TD of season)

Other GB WRs

  • Other than Adams, GBs tgt share has been spread out
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (IR)-13% // Randall Cobb-9% // Allen Lazard-6%
  • RZ tgts: Cobb-4 // Malik Taylor-2 // MVS-2
  • GB routes run w/ no MVS last week (of 40): Adams-39 // Lazard-37 // Cobb-25 // Equanimeous St. Brown-3 // Amari Rodgers-1


  • Robert Tonyan is third in GB tgts w/ 15 (12%)
  • Tonyan tgts by week: 7 // 1 // 3 // 2

Joe Burrow: 

  • Burrow has yet to complete over 25 passes in a game this season
  • Despite this, he has multiple pass TDs in every game & ranks 5th with nine 
  • CINs scored a TD on 75% of RZ trips (5th best)
  • GB has allowed a TD on all of its opponents RZ attps
  • On nine RZ pass atts, Burrow has 5 TDs
  • GB ranks T-22nd in sacks
  • Burrow has taken 11, eighth most

Joe Mixon:

  • Mixon is questionable this week (low grade ankle sprain last Thursday)
  • Despite Mixon missing part of last week’s game, Mixon owns an 81% rush share
  • Mixon has seen just 2.25 tgts/g
  • Atts by week: vs JAX (injured)-16 // @ PIT-18 // @ CHI-20 // vs MIN-29
  • GB has allowed one 20+ DK RB (Najee Harris-21.10) but six of those pts came from receptions
  • They held Alvin Kamara to 18.10 DK pts Week 1
  • GB allows a middling 23.4 DK pts/g to RBs


  • PFFs 13th ranked CB Jaire Alexander was injured in last weeks game & will likely miss this weeks game
  • Tee Higgins is questionable this week after missing weeks three & four
  • Tgts week 1 & 2 w/ Higgins: Jamaar Chase-13  // Higgins-15 // Tyler Boyd-13
  • Tgts Weeks 3 & 4 w/o Higgins: Boyd-13 // Chase-14
  • RZ tgts: Chase-4 (two TDs) // Higgins-3 (two TDs) // Boyd-2 (one TD)
  • Boyd led the team in RZ tgts last season seeing 18 (4 TDs)
  • GB allows the 7th fewest DK pts to WR (31.2)


  • CJ Uzomah has seen 11 tgts, fourth on team, and the only CIN to receive a tgt this season
  • Two of nine tgts have been for TDs

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Broncos (
20.5) at

Steelers (

Over/Under 39.5


Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
22nd DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
10th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
4th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
20th DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
29th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
19th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
28th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • Denver is in an interesting situation as they are dealing with several offensive injuries and coming off their first loss of the season
  • Pittsburgh is quickly approaching “time to panic” as they enter Week 5 at 1-3 with seven remaining games against 2020 playoff teams, in addition to road games at Cincinnati and the Chargers
  • Both teams will likely try to lean on their defense to win this game
  • This projects as a low-scoring, slow-paced game environment with very low likelihood of either team wanting or needing to turn things up a notch

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Teddy Bridgewater’s status is very much up in the air as he deals with a concussion and Denver is trying to bounce back from their first loss of the season to the Ravens. Pittsburgh should provide a tougher test than Denver saw during their season-opening three-game win streak (Giants, Jags, Jets), but is not the same level of opponent as Baltimore provided last week. This week sets up as an opportunity for the Broncos to prove themselves with a road win against a traditionally very competitive franchise. Every team in the AFC West is currently at or above .500 which makes this a critical game for Denver as they need to take care of this Pittsburgh team that has been struggling since their Week 1 win in Buffalo.

The status of Bridgewater will have a huge impact on the approach of the Broncos as well as the entire game flow of this game. Teddy has been dealing so far this season, with zero turnovers through three and a half games while pushing the ball down the field to the tune of the 6th highest aDOT among all qualifying QBs. Meanwhile, Lock’s entire career has been plagued by turnovers and the team turned away from him for Teddy for a reason before the season started. It is more than safe to say that if Lock is forced to start the Broncos will do everything they can to minimize the damage he can do to their chances of winning. Ben Roethlisberger has looked shaky, to say the least, so far this season and with Denver’s strong defense against the shaky Pittsburgh offensive line it would make sense for Denver to rely on their defense taking over in this one.

This section should more aptly be titled, “How Denver Will Try To Keep Drew Lock From Losing It For Them.” Pittsburgh has a very good run defense (5th in rush defense DVOA, 3rd in PFF rush defense grade) which will make for tough sledding for Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams on the ground. Both backs could be more involved through the air this week as they each possess the skillset to do so and with the coaching staff likely reluctant to have Lock try to stretch the field vertically, they will need to find ways to stretch the field horizontally if they want to move the ball. One of the more intriguing things for the Broncos entering this season was their dynamic receiving corps, but after injuries to Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler they lack the depth that made them so special and dynamic. Pittsburgh has traditionally been poor against slot WR’s, which could mean big things for tight end Noah Fant (who is coming off a 10 target game last week) and is featured in that “middle of the field” role that Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler would occupy, if healthy. Assuming Lock is behind center, the Broncos are unlikely to encourage aggressive downfield throws. During the third quarter last week, which was played at a 17-17 tie for the duration of the quarter, Lock targeted RBs or TEs on 7 of his 9 passing attempts and we should expect a similar dispersion this week for as long as that is a viable approach. 

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Pittsburgh is returning home for what is as close to a “must-win” game as a team can have in Week 5. A perennial playoff and Super Bowl contender for most of Ben Roethlisberger’s career, they are now staring in the face of obscurity. Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule is brutal and a home game against a backup QB is one that they absolutely must find a way to win if they want to have any shot at the playoffs.

Pittsburgh’s offensive line is dead last in the NFL with a pathetic 3.0 average adjusted line yards on rushing attempts. Facing Denver’s 6th graded rush defense by PFF, it is unlikely that the Steelers will find this game is the one where they turn around their ground attack. That means that, unfortunately, the Steelers will need to lean on Big Ben if they want to move the ball here. He has looked beyond dusty this season, with several head-scratching plays in the past couple of weeks where the Steelers actually called plays on 4th and mid-to-long where the pass was thrown behind the line of scrimmage!! While we can make our own judgments from watching the games, teams often tell us what they think through their actions. Pittsburgh’s play-calling signals that they agree with the assessment that Ben is dusty and unable to push the ball downfield consistently or efficiently. 

We’ve established that Pittsburgh will not be able to run the ball well and that Ben is not at a point in his career where vertical passing will be a fruitful endeavor. What that leaves them with is a heavy dose of short-area passing. This would mirror the approach they have been rolling with as they have thrown the ball on 75% of their offensive plays over the previous three weeks. Usually, in a spot like this (coming off three consecutive losses) you would look for a team to change up their approach to try to spark something. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh their offensive line and matchup issues are too severe for them to change course and having Ben throw 40+ times (as he has done the last three weeks) gives them their best chance at winning.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Neither team is likely to put their foot on the gas until they absolutely have to. Even if a situation occurs where one side is forced to pick up the pace and push the ball downfield, they would be unlikely to have much success given their matchups. A negative game script and trying to come back from a deficit is not a recipe for success for dusty Ben Roethlisberger and careless Drew Lock. If Teddy Bridgewater were to pass the concussion protocol and be cleared to play, it would increase the chances that Denver wins this game but would not do much to change the low percentage outcome of a high-scoring affair.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • 40 Vegas total is the lowest in Week 5
  • DEN takes 32.9 adjusted seconds per play, slowest in the NFL (per numberFire)
  • PIT ranks 27th with 32.0
  • PIT ranks 3rd in adjusted pass rate at 67.4%
  • DEN ranks 6th with 64.9%

Drew Lock

  • Lock ranked 35th in PFF grade last season
  • Lock has scored 20+ DK pts in 5 out of 18 career games
  • In his last start, he put up 27.26 against the Raiders
  • His career DK ppg is just 15.57
  • PIT ranks 22nd in ppg to QBs (22)

DEN Passing Attack

  • With Teddy Bridgewater this season, DEN used 11 personnel 56%, 12 personnel 27%, and 13 personnel at 12% (one of only three teams with double digit usage)
  • With Lock last year, they used 11 at 66%, 12 at 22%, and no other personnel grouping above 4%
  • Team snap shares: Noah Fant 83.3% // Courtland Sutton 81.7% // Tim Patrick 77.6% // Jerry Jeudy 47% // Albert Okwuegbunam 45.2%
  • Target shares: Sutton 21.2% // Fant 20.5% // Patrick 14.4% // Albert 7.6%
  • Prior to his injury, Jeudy had 7 targets in his only game this season
  • Sutton’s targets: 3 // 12 // 5 // 8
  • Fant’s: 8 // 6 // 3 // 10
  • Patrick’s: 4 // 4 // 5 // 6
  • Sutton ranks 5th in air yards, 13th in air yard market share, and 24th in WOPR among all players
  • Sutton’s DK log: 2.4 // 27.9 // 8.7 // 7.7
  • Patrick’s DK log: 13.9 // 12.7 // 14.8 // 6.9
  • With Sutton injured all last year and Lock at QB, Patrick scored 20+ pts twice in 14 games
  • Jeudy only cracked 15 points twice without Sutton last season, out of 15 games, but in those games he scored 28.5 & 30 DK pts
  • PIT ranks 28th in DK ppg to WRs (44.9)
  • Fant ranks 4th in target share and 7th in WOPR among all TEs this year
  • Fant’s DK log: 12.2 // 13.3 // 3.5 // 16.6
  • He averaged 10.66 DK ppg in 14 games last season, with three GPP worthy scores: 17.7 // 19.1 // 20.8
  • PIT ranks 12th in ppg to TEs (9.7)


  • Team snap shares: Melvin Gordon 53.2% // Javonte Williams 45.2%
  • Target shares: Melvin 8.3% // Javonte 6.8%
  • Touches per game: Melvin 14.8 // Javonte 13.5
  • Rush share: Melvin 46% // Javonte 41%
  • Goal line rushes: Javonte 5 // Melvin 4
  • Melvin’s DK log: 23.8 // 8.9 // 15.2 // 8.7
  • Javonte’s DK log: 5.1 // 8.4 // 14.2 // 8.9
  • PIT ranks 5th in DK ppg to RBs (16.1)

Ben Roethlisberger

  • Ben ranks 33rd in PFF grade
  • Ben’s DK log this year: 12.02 // 14.8 // 18.22 // 11.28
  • Last year he averaged 20.53 pts
  • He scored 22.24 points at home against DEN last year
  • DEN ranks 4th in pts allowed to QBs (14.6)

PIT Passing Attack

  • PIT uses 11 personnel at an 81% rate (2nd in NFL to LAR’s 82%) and 12 personnel at 12%
  • Last season, they finished 2nd in 11 personnel usage (75%)
  • Team snap shares: JuJu 76.7% // Claypool 61.5% // Diontae Johnson 57.6% // James Washington 55.3% // Eric Ebron 49% // Pat Freiermuth 48.2%
  • Target shares: Diontae 20.6% // Claypool 17.1% // JuJu 15.9% // Washington 7.6% // Freiermuth 6.5% // Ebron 5.3%
  • Diontae missed Week 3, Claypool missed Week 4
  • Diontae’s target log: 10 // 12 // – // 13
  • Claypool: 5 // 9 // 15 // –
  • JuJu: 8 // 7 // 4 // 8
  • Despite missing a week, Diontae still ranks 17th in total targets among all players, 5th in target share, and 7th in WOPR
  • Diontae’s DK log: 14.6 // 22.5 // 24.2
  • He’s scored 20+ in 10/34 games
  • Despite missing a week, Claypool ranks 24th in total air yards, 11th in air yard market share, and 19th in WOPR
  • Claypool’s DK log: 10 // 9.7 // 18.6
  • He’s scored 20+ in 4/20 games
  • JuJu’s DK log: 9.2 // 16.4 // 5.5 // 3.1
  • In 63 career games, JuJu has scored 20+ DK pts a total of 17 times
  • DEN ranks 16th in ppg to WRs (37.9)
  • Ebron’s best output as a Steeler came in their playoff loss to the Browns last year (19.2)
  • Since then, he hasn’t hit 3 pts
  • Rookie Freiermuth’s DK log: 3.4 // 7.6 // 11.2 // 2.1
  • DEN ranks 4th in ppg to TEs (6)

Najee Harris

  • Najee leads all RBs in total snaps (238, Derrick Henry in 2nd with 215), snap share (92.6%, Alvin Kamara in 2nd with 81.8%), targets (34, D’Andre Swift in 2nd with 29), target share (20%, Swift at 17.9%), and RBOPR (0.55, Henry at 0.45)
  • His 20.2 touches per game rank 6th
  • He has only 2 TDs
  • His 19.3 DK ppg ranks 6th
  • Najee’s DK log: 5.9 // 19.1 // 31.2 // 21.1
  • DEN ranks 1st in ppg to RBs (10.2)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
22) at

Panthers (

Over/Under 46.5


Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
10th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
30th DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
18th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
1st DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
26th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
6th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • The spread nature of the Eagles offense leaves all pass-catchers best reserved for MME play
  • The game day status of Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey carries a significant impact on the fantasy prospectus of all other Panther players
  • Panthers have volume, aggression, a plus matchup, and a narrow distribution of targets; giddy up

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The biggest concept to understand with the Eagles is that they are very much still trying to figure things out under first-time head coach Nick Sirianni. Through the first four weeks, the Eagles have played at the third highest situation-neutral pace of play with the ninth highest situation-neutral pass rates. Their defense was supposed to be (perception coming into the year) built from the front-back, designed to eliminate the run and play heavy man coverages on the back side. The reality is this defense has allowed the sixth lowest yards per completion (9.3) but fourth worst completion rate (72.73%) through the air to this point, with a moderate 4.4 yards allowed per carry and sixth most fantasy points allowed per game to opposing backfields. What this tells us is that Philadelphia’s defense is performing from the back forward, showing teams elevated coverages downfield and daring them to attack them over the short and intermediate areas and through the run. The further consequences of this changing dynamic with respect to how this defense has looked is the second-worst drive success rate and time of possession allowed per drive. When paired with the second-best opponent starting field position, we’re left with a team that hasn’t seen the ball for very long up to this point (25th-ranked 27:34 time of possession per game). All of this deep dive into their defense gives us a good idea of how the Eagles have been forced to operate on offense thus far, which has basically been through forced aggression, a difficult ask against a Panthers defense allowing the third fewest points per game (16.5) and total yards per game (251.5).

Overall, the Eagles have averaged just 22.5 rush attempts per game and quarterback Jalen Hurts accounts for 8.5 per game of those. This is likely mostly a function of game script and time of possession, but we can’t confidently project the running back duo of Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell for more than 15-20 combined rush attempts until we see a conceptual shift from this offense, leaving both highly reliant on touchdowns and pass game usage for their individual value. With a typical snap split of 65/35, both leave a lot to be desired, particularly in a difficult matchup.

The inefficiencies of this defense have forced the Eagles to primarily attack through the air up to this point, with quarterback Jalen Hurts attempting more than 35 passes in three out of four games. Not only is the offense also inefficient, but it is spread out. Only once all season has an individual pass-catcher gone for double-digit targets (Devonta Smith last week against a Chiefs team that scored 42 points, forcing 48 pass attempts from Hurts), and even then it is only good for a 20.8% team target market share. All of that to say, we can’t confidently project any of Smith, Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins, Dallas Goedert, or Zach Ertz for enough volume to provide a bankable floor, instead relying on efficiency and touchdowns for fantasy production.

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers have been able to leverage their defensive success through a slow pace of play (25th) and balanced offense (middle of the pack 43% situation-neutral rush rate) through four weeks. One interesting thing to note is the tight range of offensive plays run from scrimmage and pass attempts per game through four games. The Panthers have run between 70 and 76 offensive plays in three out of four weeks, with the outlier being a 64 snap game in Week 1 against the hapless Jets. In those games, quarterback Sam Darnold has pass attempts ranging from 34 to 39 attempts, again, an extremely tight range of outcomes. Furthermore, there is nothing in each individual game script that should indicate a large shift in offensive philosophy (two blowout wins, one narrow win, and one moderate loss). What this means to me is that the Panthers are remaining aggressive deep into games regardless of game flow, a very important aspect to understand about this offense.

The ground game runs almost exclusively through Christian McCaffrey when healthy, but that is the issue this week. We don’t currently know what CMC’s game day status will be. He returned to practice on Wednesday after missing only one week with a hamstring injury. This dude is Superman. Should he play, CMC accounts for such a large portion of the available offensive touches from this offense that he needs to be in consideration each and every week he plays. The matchup on the ground yields an above-average 4.52 net-adjusted line yards metric on the backs of Philadelphia’s 31st-ranked value (5.10). Should CMC miss, expect rookie Chuba Hubbard to see a slight bump to his Week 4 snap rate (46%) and usage (15 running back opportunities) in a much more positive expected game environment.

The proverbial crème of the crop of the Panthers skill position players this season has been DJ Moore. Moore has commanded an elite 30.3% team target market share, holds a moderate 9.7 aDOT, and has gone for 79 yards receiving or more in every game thus far. He has also seen 11 or more targets in three of four games, with the only game where he failed to hit that mark being a Week 1 victory over the Jets. The deficiencies of the Eagles defense line up almost too perfectly for DJ Moore’s game here, making him one of the top wide receiver plays on the slate (and I guarantee he will not be viewed that way by the field). The Panthers target the tight end position at the lowest rate in the league (8%), instead targeting the wide receiver and running back positions heavily. Robby Anderson enjoyed his first game over six targets in Week 4 but was largely ineffective in his downfield role. The matchup and what the Eagles cede don’t align well with that role. Rookie slot-man Terrace Marshall, Jr. has seen six or fewer targets in every game thus far, working the short areas of the field.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The high drive success rate of the Carolina offense paired with the poor drive success rate allowed by the Philadelphia defense creates a most likely game environment where the Panthers are able to control the pace and tempo here. This would again force increased aerial aggression from the Eagles as the game moves on and elevates their expected pass volume. Since the Panthers have shown such a tight range of offensive plays run from scrimmage and have remained aggressive deep into games regardless of game flow, look for a high likelihood for each team to see additional offensive plays run from scrimmage here.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • After outscoring opponents 69-30 to start the season and never trailing, CAR lost to DAL 28-36 in a game that was 14-36 at one point
  • PHI was also blown out by that same DAL team the week before
  • PHI is 1-3 ATS while CAR is 3-1 ATS

Sam Darnold:

  • QB passing vs PHI: Ryan (164:0) // Jimmy (189:1) // Dak (238:3) // Mahomes (278:5:1)
  • QB rushing vs PHI: Ryan (2:8) // Jimmy (11:20:1) // Dak (9:6) // Mahomes (5:26)
  • Darnold has three straight games of 300+ pass yds
  • Darnold has five rushing TDs on the season already
  • Darnold scored 20+ DK pts in just 8/38 games with NYJ (just one of 30+)
  • Darnold has scored 20.1, 22.9, 28.3, 36.5 DK pts in his first three games for CAR


  • Targets: Moore (8, 11, 12, 12) // Anderson (3, 6, 2, 11) // Marshall (6, 3, 5, 3)
  • aDOT: Moore (10.2) // Anderson (15.3) // Marshall (6.4)
  • PHI is facing the 5th lowest defensive aDOT and has allowed the 6th fewest completed air yds
  • With Moore dominating targets, he has produced 80, 79, 126, 113 yds and scored 3 TDs
  • Top WRs vs PHI: Ridley (5:51) // Deebo (6:93) // Lamb (3:66), Cooper (3:26) // Hill (11:186:3)
  • Robby & Marshall have topped out at 12.7 & 8.8 DK pts respectively through four games

Chuba Hubbard:

  • Att & tg without CMC: Hubbard (24, 2) // Freeman (8, 1) // Rodney Smith (0, 5)
  • PHI ranks 28th in defensive rush DVOA
  • Backfields rushing vs PHI: ATL (126) // SF (89) // DAL (155) // KC (149)
  • Backfields receiving vs PHI: ATL (54) // SF (47) // DAL (26) // KC (28)
  • Hubbard has turned his 24 att into 109 yds since CMC went down

Jalen Hurts:

  • Only one of four QBs vs CAR has even topped 200 pass yds
  • Hurts has four 300 pass yd games in 7 full games
  • Hurts passing in 2021: 264:3 // 190:0 // 326:2:2 // 387:2
  • QB rushing vs CAR: Jameis (3:19:1), Taysom (2:16) // Dak (4:35)
  • Hurts rushing in six starts: 18:106 // 11:63:1 // 9:69 // 8:34:2 // 7:62 // 10:82:1 // 9:35 // 8:47
  • CAR has the highest pressure rate in the NFL through four weeks per PFR

Devonta Smith:

  • Team’s top WRs vs CAR: Davis (5:97:2) // Callaway (2:8) // Cooks (9:112) // Cooper (3:69:1), Lamb (2:13)
  • Devonta Smith has 8, 7, 6, & 10 targets
  • Smith’s career start: 6:71:1 // 2:16 // 3:28 // 7:122
  • Smith has the 11th highest aDOT in the NFL
  • CAR has allowed the 3rd fewest YAC
  • Smith has averaged 1.1 YAC above expectation


  • TE targets: Goedert (5, 2, 4, 5) // Ertz (2, 2, 7, 8)
  • TE yards: Goedert (42:1, 24, 66, 56:1) // Ertz (34, 6, 53:1, 60)
  • TEs vs CAR: NYJ (6:48) // NOR (1:23) // HOU (4:32) // DAL (7:76:2)


  • PHI RB att: Sanders (15, 13, 2, 7) // Gainwell (9, 6, 1, 3)
  • PHI RB tg: Sanders (5, 2, 4, 3) // Gainwell (3, 3, 4, 8)
  • Total yds: Sanders (113 / 59 / 55 / 47) // Gainwell (43 / 32 / 34 / 89)
  • Top RB yds vs CAR: Ty Johnson (26) // Kamara (30) // Ingram (20) // Zeke (143), Pollard (67)
  • CAR ranks 8th in defensive rush DVOA and has allowed the 4th fewest RB DK pts

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
26.5) at

Jaguars (

Over/Under 48.5


Key Matchups
Titans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
20th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
11th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
30th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
19th DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • Tennessee looks to rebound after an embarrassing loss to the Jets. They are in a similar situation as last week going against a winless team with a rookie quarterback.
  • Jacksonville is mired in turmoil following their Head Coach’s night on the town last Thursday.
  • Injuries to both sides will help to make volume much more concentrated than how we saw these teams at the start of the season.
  • Two poor defenses are involved in this game, which increases the chances of a shootout game environment.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Tennessee’s plan of attack is first and foremost to get the ball to Derrick Henry 20+ times. Henry has handled an incredible 127 touches through four games to start the season and he should be in line for more of the same in Week 5. In regards to the passing game, Jacksonville is dead last in the NFL in pass defense DVOA; in PFF ratings, they are the 30th graded unit in both pass rush and coverage grades. Meanwhile, both PFF and DVOA have Jacksonville as a middle of the pack rushing defense.

Putting these things together, it becomes clear that Tennessee should have no trouble moving the ball in whichever form they prefer. Derrick Henry is a monster and Jacksonville’s run defense, while not terrible, is not good enough to make Tennessee afraid to run the ball, or likely to turn them away from how they want to play. However, the incredible matchup for the passing game makes it likely that Tennessee will be able to be very efficient through the air, especially with A.J. Brown likely to return this week to add some explosiveness to the aerial attack. The status of the Tennessee offensive line is something we should pay close attention to as the week draws to a close. Several linemen are on the injury report, and if it turns out Tennessee will be without a couple of their key members of the O-Line, it could be something that encourages them to turn more pass heavy than we would expect with such a good matchup through the air.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Jacksonville has been a different team from the first two weeks of the season to their most recent two games. After operating at a very high pace and throwing at a high rate to start the year, the Jaguars leaned more on the running game against the Cardinals and Bengals. Part of that likely had to do with trying to keep Kyler Murray off the field and building a big first half lead against the Bengals. Part of that was also probably tied to trying to keep Trevor Lawrence in one piece. The Jaguars incorporated more read-option plays last week and got Lawrence using his legs in space. This helped them sustain drives and convert several key third downs.

Jacksonville should use a steady dose of the running game between James Robinson, Trevor Lawrence, and Carlos Hyde. They will also be moderately aggressive when they take to the air, with Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones drawing attention down the field, and their RBs and TEs mixing in for some short area passing work. There will likely be some focus on slowing the game down and protecting their defense, but they have to know they are going to need to score 24+ points so I don’t think we should expect a totally conservative game plan. Tennessee ranks in the mid-20s against both the run and the pass so the matchup isn’t one where the Jags would want to avoid a certain plan of attack. Jacksonville should be able to move the ball well here, and will need to focus on converting their drives into touchdowns if they want to be competing in the fourth quarter.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Obviously, the biggest talking point surrounding this game is Urban Meyer’s actions after the game last week and what that means for the Jaguars. I think it is important to discuss this prior to digging into the game flow.

I have heard some people say they think this will have a huge impact on their performance this week or that the players may “quit” on him. I have a hard time believing that these adult professionals who are trying to make the most of their careers are going to consciously not try as hard because they are mad their coach was dancing at a bar. Bad tape or statistics stays with a player; these guys aren’t thinking about Meyer’s personal life when they get out there. That being said, I do think that in a scenario where the Titans are stomping them, there is less likelihood of a rally from the Jaguars. While they won’t actively be thinking about what has transpired during a competitive game, if things turn ugly, it will be easy for players to place blame on the coach and he certainly doesn’t appear to have the players ready to “run through the wall for him and save his job.” That type of thing would have a bigger impact on the defensive side of the ball than the offense, as offensive players are actively trying to make things happen while the defensive players will have to weigh their personal safety and career, as in “how aggressively do I want to try to tackle a full-speed Derrick Henry in the fourth quarter already down three scores for a coach who likely won’t be here Monday?”

As for the actual game, I expect a pretty balanced attack for both teams especially early on. The Titans want to run the ball but given the matchup, they will certainly not be avoiding the pass. Meanwhile, the Jaguars will likely try to establish their running game early to protect their defense and keep Henry and Co. off the field, but they also have a great passing game matchup and are quickly going to need to score points to stay within shouting distance. The Titans have multiple players capable of explosive plays that can flip the switch here, and the Jaguars also have capable playmakers in their receiving corps, as well as a prodigious talent at QB who appears to be bubbling up for a breakout game. 

The Titans are likely to score early and often. If the Jaguars can keep pace, both teams should stay fairly balanced, while if the Titans build a lead then we should see them ride Henry and the Jaguars take to the air. It is highly unlikely the Jaguars build an early lead, as they will struggle to slow down the Titans. However, in the rare event that the game went that way, it would lead to heavy Jaguars rushing as they hold on for dear life; the Titans would be highly unlikely to abandon the run as they will know they can score points in any means necessary, and that the Jags will tighten up if they get a lead.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • JAC has scored just 21, 13, 19, 21 points
  • TEN has allowed 38, 30, 16, 27 points

Trevor Lawrence:

  • Lawrence has scored 6 TDs and thrown 7 INTs
  • TEN has allowed 9 QB TDs to just 2 INT
  • Fellow rookie Zach Wilson threw for 297:2:1 vs TEN last week
  • 2021 QBs vs TEN: Kyler (289:4:1) // Russ (343:2) // Wentz (194:0) // Wilson (297:2:1)
  • All four QBs have been between 31 & 37 pass att vs TEN
  • Lawrence had 51 att in a W1 blowout loss, and has thrown 33, 34, 24 times since


  • Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
  • Five WRs vs TEN in 2021 have scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1)
  • JAC targets: Jones (9, 11, 8, 3) // Viska (9, 7, 4, 7) // Chark (12, 4, 6, 0)
  • Chark was injured for the year at the start of the previous game
  • Tavon Austin had 3 targets and played the majority of the game following Chark’s departure
  • MJJ as JAC’s #1 WR: 5:77:1 // 6:55:1 // 6:62 // 3:24
  • MJJ vs TEN in 2020: 10:112:1 (12 tg)

James Robinson:

  • TEN ranks 24th in defensive rush DVOA
  • RB total yds vs TEN: Edmonds (106), Conner (53) // Carson (31) // Taylor (72), Hines (79) // Carter (34), Coleman (31)
  • Robinson rushing 2021: 5:25 // 11:47 // 15:88:1 // 18:78:2
  • Robinson has targets of 6, 3, 6, 2
  • Robinson has seven games of 25+ rec yds in his short career
  • Robinson’s share of JAC RB touches: (11/22) // (14/18) // (21/29) // (20/22)
  • Hyde missed the last game due to injury

Ryan Tannehill:

  • JAC is giving up the 2nd highest yds/att (9.6)
  • Tanny’s yds/att by game: 6.1 // 8.7 // 7.3 // 6.1
  • The two worse TEN offensive performances have included Tanny being sacked a combined 13 times
  • JAC’s five sacks are the fewest in the NFL
  • QBs vs JAC: Tyrod (291:2) // Teddy (328:2) // Kyler (316:0:1) // Burrow (348:2)
  • Each QB has just 33, 34, 34, 32 pass att vs JAC
  • Since last year, the game scores of his 8 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16


  • JAC has already allowed five 100+ yd WRs: Cooks (5:132) // Sutton (9:159) // Green (5:112), Kirk (7:104) // Boyd (9:118)
  • JAC is facing the fourth highest defensive aDOT
  • TEN WRs aDOT: Brown (15.2) // Julio (13.3)
  • TEN WRs vs JAC in 2020: Brown (DNP // 7:112:1) // Davis (3:36:1 // 3:34)

Derrick Henry:

  • Rush & rec yds by backfields vs JAC: HOU (120, 24) // DEN (95, 48) // ARI (69, 59) // CIN (74, 15)
  • DK pts for each backfield vs JAC: HOU (36.4) // DEN (14.3) // ARI (32.8) // CIN (16.9)
  • Henry’s touches in 2021: (17 att, 4 tg) // (35 att, 6 tg) // (28 att, 3 tg) // (33 att, 2 tg)
  • After TEN’s weak showing in W1, Henry has rushed for 182, 113, & 157 yds
  • Henry vs JAC in 2020: 25:84 // 26:215:2, 2:7

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 4:05pm Eastern

Browns (
22.25) at

Chargers (

Over/Under 47.0


Key Matchups
Browns Run D
30th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
22nd DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
15th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
17th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
29th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
8th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
10th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
11th DVOA/17th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Two teams with fairly different approaches to trying to win games
  • A whole bunch of fringe plays, with no one play truly standing out as a solid mix of floor and ceiling
  • One of those spots where I’ll happily let the field chase previous production on low volume plays
  • Higher likelihood we see this game play to a slugfest when compared to chances at a shootout

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns continue their relentless rushing attack to start 2021, checking in second in the league in situation-neutral rush rates at 53% and 26th in situation-neutral pace of play. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has pass attempts of 28/21/31/33 on the young season, with only one game over 300 passing yards (Week 1 against the Chiefs). His two passing touchdowns on the season are the fewest in the league amongst quarterbacks who have started every game (only Jacoby Brissett, Davis Mills, and Andy Dalton have fewer touchdowns of quarterbacks with at least 40 pass attempts). It’s quite clear how Cleveland wants to win games and they have largely been successful, currently sitting tied atop the AFC North with a 3-1 record (their only loss was Week 1 against the Chiefs in Arrowhead, a game they lost by four points). Jarvis Landry remains out for the Browns having been placed on the IR following Week 2. Not only are the Browns highly conservative, but they are also highly spread out. Only three players have even played over 75% of the offensive snaps in a single game this season: Donovan Peoples-Jones with 80% in Week 1 and 75% in Week 2, Jarvis Landry with 86% in Week 1, and Odell Beckham, Jr. with 79% in Week 4. That’s it! This is a team that is perfectly comfortable relying on a split backfield to carry the load on offense while their prevent defense keeps the opposition out of the end zone.

Speaking of a split backfield, running back Nick Chubb has been held between a 47% snap rate and 57% snap rate in every game so far, with Kareem Hunt landing between 38% and 53% in every game. Nick Chubb has “upside” for 20-22 running back opportunities in only the most positive game scripts while Hunt typically lands in the 14-18 opportunity range. There will be random games this season in which Chubb scores multiple touchdowns, but he’s going to need to hit the bonus to go along with it to provide a GPP-worthy score. Hunt’s receiving usage brings along an elevated floor, but he’ll need a highly efficient game to reach ceiling. The matchup on the ground yields a borderline elite 4.87 net-adjusted line yards metric, but it’s simply a case of a lot having to go right for either to reach ceiling against a Chargers team ceding 24.0 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

This pass game is a veritable mess. OBJ is the only player worth consideration from a floor perspective and even then he is typically held below double-digit targets. Seven to nine can be expected on a standard week. Another hurdle this week is a Chargers defense built in a similar way to these same Browns, which focuses on staying behind the game and swarming the ball at the point of reception. The Chargers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers but the fourth most per game to opposing tight ends, highlighting the soft spots in this zone-heavy scheme. All of Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant have played meaningful snaps in each game this season. Keep an eye on the Browns injury report throughout the week as multiple members of the offense did not practice on Wednesday, including tight end David Njoku.

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers utilize an uptempo offense, power run game, and heavy “X” and “Y” wide receiver involvement to wear down a defense over the course of a game. Joe Lombardi’s forward-thinking offense runs primarily through Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen and has proven extremely effective against heavy zone defensive schemes. Thus far, the Chargers rank fifth in situation-neutral pace of play and 10th in situation-neutral pass rate (62%). The Chargers’ 64% 11-personnel rate fall slightly above the league average in 2021 of 58% (down from 60% in 2020), with the team in 12-personnel at a league average rate of 22%.

The run game draws its stiffest test of the season against a defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the backs of 3.1 yards allowed per carry and only one total touchdown allowed to the position. For comparison’s sake, the Jets allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields through four weeks at 34.4. The Browns are all the way down at 12.3 allowed per game, second only to the Broncos at 10.2. The matchup yields a paltry 3.715 net-adjusted line yards metric primarily due to Cleveland’s third-ranked 3.01 adjusted line yards allowed. Austin Ekeler leads the backfield, and rightfully so, with no fewer than 58% of the offensive snaps in any game this season. That has led to running back opportunity counts of 15/18/17/20, clearly indicating a desire to limit the wear and tear on his undersized body throughout the season. After seeing zero targets in his first game of the year, Ekeler has averaged 6.67 per game in the subsequent three. Behind Ekeler, expect some combination of Larry Rountree III and Justin Jackson to rotate through, but neither can be counted on for even double-digit opportunities.

The pass game matchup appears just as difficult as the run game does for the Chargers as the Browns have allowed a stifling 57.72% completion percentage against and moderate 10.4 yards per completion against. The low completion rate against is a testament to second-year defensive coordinator Joe Woods’ 4-2-5 zone-heavy defensive scheme, which finally has the healthy personnel to be effective. This creates an interesting matchup against the now-potent “X” wide receiver for the Chargers in Mike Williams and veteran route technician Keenan Allen, who have both proven adept at finding the space against zone coverages. This setup historically favors Keenan Allen’s abilities, but the truth is both Williams and Allen are lethal in this new-look offense. Keenan and Williams serve as the only borderline every-down pass-catchers, with all of Jaylen Guyton, Jared Cook, and Donald Parham typically residing in the 50-65% range. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Browns are going to dictate the game flow for as long as they are allowed to. Put another way, we know with a high degree of certainty how Cleveland will be looking to win here, and they will continue to do so for as long as they remain within striking distance. This plan of attack will slow the game down and reduce the total number of offensive plays run from scrimmage for each team. The Chargers are likeliest to counter the slow pace and heavy rush rates with uptempo play and moderate to high pass rates. With that in mind, this is one of the more difficult matchups for the Chargers up to this point in the season. That is to say, they are less likely than a standard matchup to find the same level of success they have enjoyed against lesser opponents, not that we should expect them to completely fail here. When you add up all the pieces of this game and how they come together, we’re much more likely to see a game of two top dogs in the AFC battling for field position and trying not to be the first to make a large mistake than we are to see this game blow up.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • Total opened 48.5 & has moved down to 46.5 (7th highest) as of Tuesday evening
  • LAC has held all of their opponents to their lowest pt totals of the season
  • LAC pts allowed: LV-14 // KC-24 // DAL-20  // WAS-16 
  • This ranks 7th best in pts allowed/g (18.5)
  • CLE D has held two of four opponents to their lowest pt totals of the season
  • CLE pts allowed: MIN-7 // CHI-6 // HOU-21 // KC-33
  • This ranks 4th best in pts allowed/g

Baker Mayfield:

  • Faced LAC at home his rookie season going 22:46:238 yds:1 TD:1 INT
  • Mayfield has yet to top 33 pass attempts this season
  • His highest yardage output (321 yds) came Week 1 against KC who ranks 27th in pass yds allowed/g (291.8)
  • LAC ranks 5th best in pass yds allowed/g (192.5/g)
  • Mayfield has just 2 pass TDs to 2 INTs
  • Last week, he attempted a season high 33 passes but had his lowest pass yds of the season (155)
  • Due to low pass atts & also spreading his tgts out, no CLE player has a game with 10+ tgts
  • Mayfield targeted players/week: 9 // 8 // 10 // 10
  • Mayfield DK pts: MIN-9.3 // CHI-16.9 // HOU-18.5 // KC-16.6
  • LAC allows the 5th least DK pts/g to QBs (15.0) having faced Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, & Taylor Heinicke/Ryan Fitzpatrick

Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt:

  • CLE ranks second highest in rush rate (53%)
  • Team Rush %:Team Target %: Chubb-49%:4% // Hunt-31%:14% 
  • Hunt is third in team tgts (15), first in rec yds (121), & first in total TDs (4)
  • Chubb has 3 TDs & avgs 90.5 rush yds/g
  • LAC allows a middling 24 DK pts/g to RBs


  • In two games, Odell Beckham has 16 tgts but caught just 7
  • OBJ team tgt share in those two: 23% // 31% 
  • CLE WR season tgt share: OBJ (2 games)-15% // Rashad Higgins-10% // Anthony Schwartz-7% // Landry (IR)-6% // Donovan Peoples-Jones-4%
  • Peoples-Jones has played the most snaps on the team outside four lineman & Mayfield
  • LAC allows the 2nd least DK pts/g to WRs (26.3)


  • TE snaps have been split between Austin Hooper, David Njoku, & Harrison Bryant
  • Hooper-66% // Njoku-62% // Bryant 40%
  • TE targets: Hooper-16 (tied for most with Beckam) // Njoku-10 // Bryant-10
  • LAC allows the 4th most DK pts/g to TEs (17.4) having faced Waller and Kelce 

Justin Herbert:

  • Herbert has only cracked 30+ DK pts in one game this season (@ KC)
  • Weekly DK pts: 21.3 // 30.8 // 19.7 // 18.4
  • LAC is the 10th pass heaviest team
  • Herbert atts by game: 47 // 41 // 38 // 3
  • CLE has allowed the 6th fewest pass atts/g (30.8)
  • They’ve allowed the 10th least DK pts/g to QBs (22.0) having faced Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor/Davis Mills, & Patrick Mahomes 


  • RB rush share last week: Austin Ekeler-44% // Larry Rountree-32% // Justin Jackson 9%
  • Target share last week: Ekeler-13% // Rountree-0% // Jackson-11%
  • Rush share first 3 Weeks: Ekeler-49% // Rountree-18% // Jackson-10%
  • RZ carries: Ekeler-12 // Rountree-6 // Jackson-2 (Herbert-2)
  • Ekeler is 4th on the team in tgts w/ 20 
  • Three tgts came in the RZ w/ two leading to TDs
  • His DK pts by week: LV-32.5 // KC-22.7 // DAL-22.5 // WAS-11.7
  • CLE ranks first in run defense DVOA, third in opponent rush yds/g, second in rush yds/att, & give up the second fewest DK pts/g to RBs (12.3)


  • Mike Williams’ four TDs have all came in the RZ
  • Williams is second on the team in tgts (35) & 2nd in RZ tgts (8) 
  • Keenan Allen leads team in tgts (44) & RZ tgts (10) but has just 1 TD
  • Jalen Guyton has played the 3rd most WR snaps behind Williams & Allen but seeing just 2.5 tgts/g
  • CLE D ranks 13th in pass DVOA & allow the sixth least DK pts to WRs (31.8)


  • Jared Cook is third on team in tgts w/ 23 behind only Allen (44) & Williams (35), good for a 14% tgt share 
  • Cook tgts by week: 7 // 3 // 5 // 8
  • Six tgts have came in the RZ

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 4:05pm Eastern

Bears (
20.25) at

Raiders (

Over/Under 46.0


Key Matchups
Bears Run D
29th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
6th DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
16th DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
21st DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
12th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
32nd DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
27th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The Bears want to hide Justin Fields as much as the scoreboard will let them
  • Pay attention to reports about Damien Williams role and health
  • Josh Jacobs has low-owned, price considered appeal if fully healthy
  • Darren Waller has explosive upside but is priced for his ceiling

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears come into this game with a 2-2 record, still very much alive in their division. This is despite not having a true NFL caliber QB on the field. Unless . . . Fields is that guy on the field. After a disastrous Week 3, Matt Nagy was able to successfully play “hide the QB” against the Lions, as he rode his over performing defense and running game to victory. In a throwback to the 90s, the Bears pounded the rock 39 times versus only 17 pass attempts. This showed that Nagy is happy to limit Fields passing in games where he doesn’t need to throw to win.  

The 3-1 Raiders present a stiffer test than the untalented Lions, but don’t present a clear “path of least resistance” on defense, ranking middle of the pack in both run and pass DVOA. The relative weakness of the defense isn’t likely to matter much to the Bears anyway, as they are going to universally try their preferred approach to prevent Fields from making mistakes. Expect the Bears to come out running and continue to do so unless the scoreboard forces them to change their tactics.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders come into this game at 3-1, checking in above expectations early in the season. They haven’t played cupcakes either, beating the Ravens and Steelers on the road, before taking their first loss against a talented Chargers team they will see again at the Death Star later this year. The AFC West is one of the best divisions in football and the Raiders are going to have to fight all season if they want to secure a playoff spot.

John Gruden is one of the more adaptable coaches in the NFL, generally wanting to run the ball, but being willing to cut bait and chuck it as the situation and matchup require. The Raiders put up 33, 26, and 31 points in their first three games before being slowed by the Chargers. They’ve produced most of their offense through the air, despite not truly having a WR1 on the roster. The Bears defense has performed well to start the year, ranking just outside the top 10 in both rush and pass DVOA. On paper, their secondary is weak, and absent an obvious path of least resistance, expect the Raiders to probe for weaknesses in both the run and pass game, going balanced throughout while leaning towards the pass. Gruden will also consider his opponent, knowing that taking an early lead will force the Bears out of “hide the QB” mode and lead to turnover opportunities.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a 44.5 total which is on the lower side for the main slate. This total feels about right since the Bears want to shorten the game and the Raiders aren’t the type of offense that is going to run over a sturdy Bears defense. The Raiders have been installed as 5.5 favorites, favoring a game flow where they methodically pull away from the Bears eventually forcing Justin Fields to show us what he’s got in the fourth quarter. After looking like a total disaster Week 3, Fields showed signs of life in Week 4 (albeit against the Lions). The Bears defense should be able to keep them within striking distance for most of this contest, and Fields should have a chance late to try and win the game. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • 4th lowest Vegas total of Week 5
  • CHI have the 4th lowest implied total
  • LV 1-4 ATS in last 5 games
  • OVER has hit in all 5, and in 7 out of the last 8 home games for LV
  • OVER has hit in 4 out of the last 5 CHI games
  • CHI ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to D/ST (7.5)

Justin Fields

  • Ranked 32nd in PFF grade (57.5)
  • In college, his PFF grades from 2018-2020: 90.1 // 91.5 // 93.5
  • In 150 total snaps, Fields has completed 25/52 passes for 347 yards and 2 INTs
  • His 6.7 YPA is tied for 8th lowest, but his ADoT is tied for 2nd most with 9.9
  • He’s had 11 designed runs on 75 rushing snaps, scoring once
  • In two starts, Fields has scored 3.92 pts @ CLE and 8.26 vs. DET
  • LV ranks 13th in ppg to QBs (19.1)

CHI Passing Attack

  • CHI uses 11 personnel at a 66% rate and 12 personnel at 23%
  • Team snap shares: Darnell Mooney 89.5% // Cole Kmet 83.5% // Allen Robinson 82.3% // Damiere Byrd 47.7% // Marquise Goodwin 40.5%
  • Target shares: Mooney 25.7% // Robinson 23.8% // Kmet 14.9% // Goodwin 9.9%
  • Mooney is 12th in target share, 10th in air yard market share, and 16th in WOPR among all WRs
  • Mooney’s DK log: 7.6 // 12.6 // 1.9 // 21.5
  • In 20 career games, he’s scored 20+ just twice
  • In the 48 games as a Bear prior to this season, Robinson averaged 15.82 DK ppg
  • That includes 15 instances of 20+ points, 4 of which went over 30
  • Robinson’s 2021 DK log: 9.5 // 10.4 // 4.7 // 9.3
  • Byrd and Goodwin have yet to hit double digit DK points this season
  • LV ranks 9th in DK ppg to WRs (33.2)
  • Kmet ranks 6th in snap share among all TEs
  • Kmet’s DK log this season: 9.2 // 1 // 2.1 // 1.6
  • In 13 career games, he’s never scored 15+ and only hit double digits twice
  • LV ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (16.1)


  • David Montgomery led the team in RB touches per game (18.8) but will now be sidelined for multiple weeks
  • Through four weeks, Damien Williams played on 30% of team snaps
  • He had a 9.9% target share (Montgomery had 8.9%)
  • Damien’s touch log: 10 // 4 // – // 10
  • Khalil Herbert earned his first touches in Week 4 with Montgomery ailing (3)
  • Damien’s DK log this year: 8 // 2.4 // 15
  • At KC, Damien averaged 16.88 DK ppg
  • LV ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (27.7)

Derek Carr

  • Carr ranks 9th in PFF grade and YPA
  • He leads the league in passing yards
  • Carr’s DK log: 28 // 27.18 // 25.24 // 15.44
  • In 52 games under Gruden, Carr averages 17.44 pts
  • 16 of those games had a Vegas total of 46 or less, and Carr managed 20+ DK pts 4 times
  • CHI ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.1)

LV Passing Attack

  • LV uses 11 personnel 35% of the time (league average is 58%), 12 personnel 25%, 21 at 17% (average is 7%), 13 at 8%, and 22 at 11% (tied for 2nd most)
  • Team snap shares: Darren Waller 89.4% // Bryan Edwards 75.3% // Henry Ruggs 66.4% // Hunter Renfrow 53.8% // Foster Moreau 50.7% // Zay Jones 20.9%
  • Target shares: Waller 23.5% // Renfrow 17.6% // Ruggs 14.7% // Edwards 10%
  • Waller is 2nd in snap share, 1st in target share, 1st in total air yards (almost 200 more than 2nd place Mark Andrews), 1st in air yard market share, and 1st in WOPR among all TEs
  • He’s 4th in DK ppg (16.6)
  • Waller’s DK log: 29.5 // 11.5 // 10.4 // 15
  • In 38 games with Gruden, Waller averages 15.97 DK ppg
  • He has 10 games with 20+ pts, 6 with 30+, and a ceiling output of 48
  • CHI ranks 7th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (8.1)
  • Renfrow ranks 16th in PFF grade among WRs
  • His DK log: 13 // 10.7 // 18.7 // 16.5
  • He’s scored 20+ just three times out of 33 career games
  • Edwards’s DK log: 12.1 // 7 // 11.9 // 1.4
  • Edwards has had just one other double digit output (13.1) since entering the league last year
  • Ruggs is 5th in ADoT among all WRs
  • His DK log: 6.6 // 25.5 // 12.5 // 9
  • He’s scored double digits just two other times since entering the league last year
  • CHI ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (44.6)


  • Kenyan Drake’s snap counts: 41 // 47 // 36 // 20
  • Josh Jacobs’s: 45 // – // – // 36
  • Peyton Barber’s: – // 19 // 47 // 1
  • Drake’s target counts: 5 // 6 // 6 // 0
  • Jacobs’s: 2 // – // – // 5
  • Barber’s: – // 0 // 5 // 0
  • Jacobs’s touches: 11 // – // – // 18
  • Drake’s: 11 // 12 // 11 // 1
  • Barber’s: – // 13 // 26 // 1
  • Jacobs finished 2nd in RBOPR in Week 4
  • His DK log in two games: 17 // 10.7
  • Jacobs averages 22.06 DK ppg as a home favorite
  • CHI ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (20.5)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 4:25pm Eastern

49ers (
21.75) at

Cards (

Over/Under 48.5


Key Matchups
49ers Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
27th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
5th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
27th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
13th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
19th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
3rd DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Two of the top six offenses in drive success rate; Niners are the only team in the NFL that has scored a touchdown on every red zone trip this season
  • I’m sorry but Jimmy Garoppolo must not want to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. The dude missed half of Week 4’s contest with a calf contusion (a bruise!!!!) while a first-round quarterback is breathing down his neck
  • Cardinals have allowed the most running back yards per carry in the league (5.21), primarily due to the second level (most second-level yards allowed per carry)
  • Elijah Mitchell expected back after missing the previous two weeks with a shoulder injury

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Niners, we should expect this team to lean on the run for as long as possible. Their 54% situation-neutral rush rate in games Raheem Mostert or Elijah Mitchell played ranked third in the league. Over the past two weeks (both games Mostert and Mitchell missed), that rush rate dropped to 37%, highly telling with respect to how this team views Trey Sermon in my opinion. In all but negative game scripts, this is a team that would like to manage the clock via low pace of play and elevated rush rates, a plan of attack that should remain consistent if Trey Lance is forced to start due to Jimmy Garoppolo’s calf ouchie. It became clear to the world just how far Lance has to go to be an NFL caliber starting quarterback in Week 4. He looked absolutely lost, was slow to progress through reads, and was quick to tuck the football and run (not necessarily the worst thing for fantasy). His deep touchdown to Deebo Samuel was severely underthrown and completely a testament to Deebo’s ability to adjust, secure the catch, and do the rest with his legs. All of that was said to highlight the expected rush-heavy approach against a Cardinals team ceding the most running back yards per carry in the league.

For all the pushback head coach Kyle Shanahan has received from the fantasy community, particularly surrounding the two Treys (Lance and Sermon), maybe this dude knows a little bit more than Joe Schmoe sitting on the couch? Sermon and Lance have both failed to impress over their short stints of meaningful opportunities, with Sermon clearly a poor fit to a zone-blocking run scheme (out-snapped by fullback Kyle Juszczyk 82% to 51% in Week 4), and Lance clearly overmatched in a fast-paced NFL game. It remains to be seen if Jimmy G’s calf bruise is something he can play through (I can’t even with this dude, to be honest; one of the softest quarterbacks in the league), but we should expect a run-heavy approach here for as long as they are afforded the opportunity, regardless of who is under center for the Niners. The team expects running back Elijah Mitchell back for Week 5 and he should immediately regain the lion’s share of running back opportunities after seeing 19 running back opportunities in each healthy week on 64% and 61% of the offensive snaps. The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.52 net-adjusted line yards metric and the Cardinals struggle containing running backs in the second level, exactly what this Niners zone-blocking run scheme is designed to spring open for running backs.

The pass game is quite literally Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and a large gap before anyone else. Brandon Aiyuk appeared to come out of Shanahan’s doghouse in Week 3, only to cede meaningful snaps to Mohamed Sanu and Trent Sherfield once more in Week 4. Look for Samuel and Kittle to remain the only pass-catchers that approach every-down status. With the overall pass volume on this team so highly reliant on game flow, all members would require a negative game script in order to see a bump in volume. Outside of that, you’re betting on extreme efficiency here.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The basic identities of this team are a high pace of play, moderate rush rates, heavy red zone rush rates, and downfield passing mixed in with a horizontally-spread pass offense. On defense, Arizona has a top pass rush and poor rush defense. We’re finally starting to see bankable trends establish from this team now that we have four weeks’ worth of data. Expect Chase Edmonds to see about 65% of the offensive snaps, leading to 15-20 running back opportunities including significant pass game work but almost no red or green zone opportunities. Expect James Conner to eat up the remaining 35% of snaps and handle primary green zone and goal line work, with very little pass game involvement. DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green are the starting perimeter wide receivers and should play most snaps most weeks, followed by slot-man Christian Kirk in the 60-70% snap rate range and Rondale Moore in the 35-45% snap rate range. Moore’s snaps appeared the most reliant on game flow heading into Week 4, but the Cardinals dominated the game flow and he saw his second highest snap rate of the season.

The matchup on the ground yields a below average 4.00 net-adjusted line yards metric but the primary allure of Edmonds resides with his involvement in the pass game. There will be games this year where he scores through the air, giving him solid cost-considered upside albeit with a moderate floor. Behind Edmonds, James Conner can’t be relied upon for a sustainable workload barring an injury ahead of him. His heavy red zone role simply dents the utility of all members of this backfield.

As we brought up earlier, DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green remain the only pass-catchers with bankable volume. Both carry moderate aDOTs and viable red zone roles, but the overall volume of the offense is spread out enough to sap the upside of each barring extremely negative game flows. Behind those two, Christian Kirk is the primary deep threat out of the slot while Rondale Moore sees the field at a low rate but carries high per-route target rates to all areas of the field. The overall composition and utilization of this pass offense leave all four with low to moderate floors and moderate ceilings. Tight end Maxx Williams saw his lowest snap rate of the season in Week 4 at 58% and isn’t highly involved in the offensive game plan.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Niners are likely to start the game with a heavy dose of rushing, and it is likelier than not that they experience some level of success. As the game wears on, however, it is difficult to see them sticking with the high octane offense of the Cardinals, likely forced into increased aerial aggression as this game plays out. Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle should be the primary pistons of this engine. The Cardinals should be able to generate increasing pressure as the game moves on but it is unlikely they see a substantial boost to offensive play volume. The game day status of the Niners quarterbacks are likely to have an effect on Niners skill players more than it should affect the likeliest plan of attack or game flow.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • Total opened as the highest on the slate but has since moved down to third highest (bet down three pts)
  • ARZ is favored by 5.0 moving from an open of 4.5
  • ARZ has run the ninth most plays/g (66.5)
  • SF runs the 14th most (65.0)
  • ARZ pt totals: 37 @ LAR  // 31 @ JAX  // 34 vs MIN // 38 vs TEN
  • ARZ has scored 30+ in every game this season and is first in pts/g (33.5)
  • SF is seventh in pts/g (26.8) 
  • ARZ is second in point differential at +55 (BUF is first at +90 & they lost a game)
  • SF pt totals this season: 28 // 28 // 17 // 41
  • SF/ARZ point total last two seasons w/ Murray & Kingsbury: 32 // 44 // 62 // 53
  • SF is 3-1

Jimmy Garoppolo/Trey Lance:

  • Garoppolo didn’t play the second half last week due to a calf injury
  • He’s questionable this week and didn’t practice Wednesday
  • Trey Lance played the second half last week after Garoppolo left with a calf injury
  • Lance season stats: 10:19:162 yds:3 TDs:0 INTs // Rush: 11:44:1 TD
  • He had 20.38 DK pts last week playing just the second half
  • ARZ started the season w/ ten sacks in three games but got zero last week against Matthew Stafford
  • SF QBs have been sacked seven times
  • ARZ has allowed the ninth fewest DK pts to QBs (18.6) having faced Matthew Stafford (20.30), Trevor Lawrence (11.46), Kirk Cousins (25.26), & Ryan Tannehill (17.18)


  • Elijah Mitchell was a limited participant Wednesday & is questionable this week
  • Mitchell took over for Mostert after he was injured week 1 
  • He handled 73% of the rush attempts going 19:104:1 TD against DET
  • Trey Sermon w/o Mitchell Weeks 3 & 4: 58% rush share // 29:120:1 TD
  • ARZ allows the most rush yds/att (5.4) & seventh most yds/g (135.8) but only two rush TDs (5th least)


  • Deebo Samual NFL Ranks: Fifth in receptions (28) // Fifth in tgts (42)  // First in yds/g (122.5) // First in yac (270) // Second in DK pts/g (25.2)
  • Deebo SF Shares: Target-32% // Rec yds-45%
  • Despite the large target volume for Deebo, he has just 3 RZ tgts
  • Routes Run: Deebo: 90% // Brandon Aiyuk-65% // Mohamed Sanu-46% // Trent Sherfield-28% 
  • Tgts: Deebo-42 // Sanu-13 // Aiyuk-11 // Sherfield-8
  • Aiyuk averaged 8.0 tgts/g last season but only 3.7 this season

George Kittle:

  • Kittle saw only nine tgts the first two weeks but 19 the past two
  • He has zero TDs on the season and zero RZ tgts
  • His DK price has fallen from a Week 2 price of $6.3k to $5.6k
  • It’s been 11 games since Kittle had a 100+ rec yd game and also 11 since his last 10+ tgt game
  • ARZ has allowed the third least DK pts to TEs (5.6)

Kyler Murray:

  • SF has allowed the 5th most DK pts/g to QBs (24.1)
  • Kyler Murray is averaging the most QB DK pts/g  (29.5)
  • His $8k price tag is $600 more than the next expensive QB on this slate (Tom Brady is second at $7.4k)
  • Murray DK pts: @ LAR-22.6 // @ JAX-22.5 // vs MIN-38.1 // @ TEN 34.6
  • Rush atts/g: 5.75 // Rush yds/g: 27.25 // 3 Rush TDs
  • Despite passing just 33.5 time/g (21st), ARZ is third in pass yds/g
  • SF is allowing the 11th least yds/pass att (6.4)
  • Murray DK pts vs SF: 23.04 // 26.7 // 27.3 // 16.38

Chase Edmonds/James Conner:

  • Rush Share: Edmonds-35% // Conner-43% (Murray-19%)
  • Edmonds is third in team tgts (22, 17.0%) but is the only ARZ player (besides Conner who has seen just 3 tgts) not to score a rec TD
  • Conner has 14 RZ rush attempts (8th in NFL) w/ four TDs (second in NFL behind Sam Darnold’s five) // Edmonds has six w/ zero TDs (Murray has five w/ two TDs)
  • Edmonds rushed 12:120 yds last week while Conner rushed 18:50:2 TDs
  • This is Conners second week in a row w/ two rush TDs
  • Nine of Conners 14 RZ rush atts have came within the ten yd line (third in NFL behind Jonathon Taylor’s ten & Derrick Henry’s ten)

ARZ Recievers:

  • ARZ WR Routes Run (of 159): DeAndre Hopkins-155 // AJ Green-140 // Christian Kirk-119 // Rondale Moore-103
  • Team tgts: Hopkins-25 // Green-24 // Moore-18 // Kirk-18
  • WR TDs: Hopkins-3 // Green-2 // Kirk-2 // Moore-1
  • ARZ WRs have scored 20+ DK pts four times
  • Last week was the only week they didn’t have WR score 20+ but AJ Green did manage a 3.93x score
  • WR DK pts vs SF: DK Metcalf-16.5 // Tyler Lockett-6.4 // Davante Adams-34.2 // Marques Valdes-Scantling 14.9 // Quez Watkins 16.7 // Jalen Reagor-2.5 // Devonta Smith-3.6 // Quintez Cephus-12.2
  • Maxx Williams is the only ARZ TE to get any targets this season (16 tgts, one TD)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 4:25pm Eastern

Giants (
22.75) at

Cowboys (

Over/Under 52.5


Key Matchups
Giants Run D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
10th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
22nd DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
13th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Cowboys Run D
5th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
7th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
3rd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
10th DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Dallas leads the league in situation-neutral rush rates since Michael Gallup was placed on IR following Week 1
  • We should expect that standard plan of attack to continue against a Giants opponent ranked 29th in adjusted line yards on defense, meaning Dallas pass-catchers require the Giants to force aerial aggression in order to return GPP-worthy scores outside of multiple splash plays
  • The Giants should struggle to maintain drives should Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton miss, which would leave the offense in the hands of Kenny Golladay against Trevon Diggs, Saquon Barkley, John Ross III, and rookie wide receiver Kadarius Toney
  • Dallas should control this game with their surging defense and relentless ground attack
  • Trevon Diggs left Week 4 after two more picks (five total through four games!) with back tightness; something to monitor, but I expect him to play

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Giants rank 12th in the league in situation-neutral pass rate through four weeks, which can be attributed to multiple factors including neutral to negative game scripts, the lack of early-season health from their workhorse running back, and lack of early game aggression. That lack of early game aggression can be seen through the delta in situation-neutral pace of play and their pace of play when trailing by seven or more points, which currently sits at over seven seconds per play (fourth-largest delta in the league behind only Buffalo – who hasn’t trailed much this year, Minnesota, and Tennessee). The Giants have, however, shown that they can have success through the air when forced to do so, but this team should start the contest attempting to slow things down and lean on the run and short passing game.

The matchup on the ground yields a sad 3.875 net-adjusted line yards metric primarily due to New York’s struggles in the trenches. Saquon Barkley’s 13 total targets over the previous two games keep his floor high, but he should require a long rush or reception plus a score in order to return value here. Devontae Booker has seen only modest snap totals over the previous three weeks and isn’t a consideration. The Giants have shown us they would like to maintain a balanced offense and moderate pace of play for as long as they are afforded the opportunity, which hasn’t been deep into games thus far.

New York could once again be shorthanded in the passing game with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton missing practice on Wednesday. Both are likely to remain out with hamstring injuries as of now. Wide receiver Kenny Golladay plays the “X” position for the Giants, the position most likely to see Trevon Diggs shadow treatment. This leaves Saquon Barkley, an ineffective Evan Engram, John Ross III, and rookie wide receiver Kadarius Toney as the primary pass-catchers, a situation that seems less than ideal. With how the Dallas defense sets up, expect six to seven targets as the floor for Barkley here, further inflating his already rock-solid floor. The remainder of the pass-catchers simply don’t bring enough expected volume or enough skill-driven splash play potential to warrant consideration outside of the deepest of MME one-offs, and even then there are much better spots this week.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys have more or less flipped the script on their weekly game plans following the injury to Michael Gallup. They kept their heightened pass rates from 2020 through the first week of 2021 before shifting to a much heavier 12-personnel alignment rate and focusing on the ground game. Their 57% situation-neutral rush rate over the last three weeks ranks first in the NFL over that time and their pace of play is a no-longer-elite 29.18 seconds per play (seventh in the NFL). Dallas’ positional target rates fall right around league average to all three major positions but their 34% 12-personnel rate ranks third on the young season. We should expect this new-look Dallas offense to continue for as long as Gallup remains out of the lineup and they remain in neutral to positive game scripts.

Ezekiel Elliott has seen a much larger share of this backfield than public perception would dictate, seeing snap rates of 84/71/70/75% and opportunity counts of 13/18/20/21 to start the season. The pass game work has largely been missing, keeping Zeke below the top tier of running backs, but he maintains a tight window of expected opportunities weekly. Behind Zeke, Tony Pollard has parlayed modest snap shares into opportunity totals of 7/16/12/10, just enough to sap elite status out of Zeke but not enough to be a bankable fantasy asset. The perception is that he is much more involved in the passing game but the reality is his eight total targets through four games are the same total that Zeke has seen. The matchup on the ground yields an elite 5.105 net-adjusted line yards metric on the backs of the Cowboys’ top marks.

Weird angle, but we’ll start with the Giants defense here. They rank 31st in the league in pass rush win rate and defensive end Leonard Williams missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury. Don’t expect a lot of pressure on Dak Prescott in the backfield. After attempting 58 passes in Week 1, Dak has attempted only 27, 26, and 22 over the previous three weeks (aligning with both positive game scripts and Gallup’s absence), meaning the Giants would have to force Dallas’ hand in order for us to expect that volume to increase. This makes all of CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz, Blake Jarwin, and the running backs long shots to see the required volume to return fantasy utility through the air. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Look for each team to start this game with a ground-based attack as each battle to control the field position and time of possession battle. With the shift in offensive philosophy to a team built around the run, against an opponent that should offer little resistance in that area, expect the Cowboys to handle this game with their surging defense and relentless run game. This makes the public perception of the Cowboys misaligned with the ownership on their pass-catchers over the previous three weeks, and also makes the only game flow where we can confidently project the required volume to return GPP-worthy scores one in which the Giants jump out to a big lead. That remains highly unlikely here with how these two teams are set up. The Giants are also a little bit hamstrung in their ability to keep pace or force Dallas into aggression with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton appearing likely to miss their second game in a row (both missed practice on Wednesday). 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Dak Prescott:

  • Dak pass yds in first five games with McCarthy: 266 // 450 // 472 // 502 // 403 
  • Dak pass yds in last three games with McCarthy: 237 // 238 // 188
  • Dak pass att/g in first five vs last three (TD:INT): 52 att (12:4) vs 25 att (7:1)
  • Pass att vs NYG: 36 // 46 // 36 // 26
  • NYG ranks 24th in defensive pass DVOA
  • QB TDs vs NYG: 2 // 2 // 2 // 3
  • Dak has scored 20+ DK pts in 23/31 games as a Home Favorite


  • Targets in the last three low-volume pass att games: Cooper (5, 4, 3) // Lamb (9, 3, 5) // Wilson (2, 4, 2)
  • Yds/g in the last three: Cooper (39.7) // Lamb (53.3) // Wilson (22.3)
  • WRs with 6+ tg vs NYG: Jeudy (6:72) // McLaurin (11:107:1), Humphries (7:44) // Ridley (8:61), Zacchaeus (3:32:1) // Harris (5:52)
  • Top WR in every Dak/McCarthy game (DK pts): Cooper (18.1) // Lamb (19.6) // Wilson (30.7), Gallup (28.8) // Cooper (34.4) // Cooper (41.9) // Lamb (17.4) // Wilson (9.7) // Cooper (15.9)


  • Targets: Schultz (6, 2, 7, 8) // Jarwin (4, 4, 2, 3)
  • Schultz already has 3 games of 6+ rec (6:45 // 6:80:2 // 6:58:1)
  • TEs vs NYG: Fant (6:62) // Thomas (5:45) // Pitts (2:35) // Johnson (2:20:1)
  • Three TDs have also been caught by backup TEs (Albert O, Seals-Jones, Lee Smith)
  • RZ targets: Schultz (3), Jarwin (2)


  • Rush att vs NYG: 25 // 17 // 19 // 33
  • DAL RB rush att in last three games: 29 // 31 // 30
  • Rush att: Elliott (11, 16, 17, 20) // Pollard (3, 13, 11, 10)
  • Targets: Elliott (2, 2, 3, 1) // Pollard (4, 3, 1, 0)
  • Total yds: Elliott (39, 97, 116, 143) // Pollard (43, 140, 65, 67)
  • RBs with 70+ yds vs NYG: Gordon (118) // McKissic (93), Gibson (73) // CPatt (102), Davis (70) // Kamara (120)
  • Elliott rushing vs NYG in 2020: 19:91:2 // 14:42:1
  • Elliott is averaging 21.2 DK pts/g in 34 games as a Home Favorite
  • As a Home Favorite of 7+ pts (8 games), Elliott has three strong scores (28.3, 30.4, 30.8) and four sub-20 pt scores
  • DAL won all eight games; other DAL production in Zeke’s sub-20 pt scores::
  • Dak rush TD, Pollard (103:1) // Dak (405:4) // Dak rush TD, DAL Def TD // Dak (301:3)

Daniel Jones:

  • The Giants have scored under 20 offensive pts in 12/20 games with Garrett as OC
  • Jones DK scores as Road Dog with Jason Garrett: 9.7 // 11.1 // 9.2 // 22.7 // 12.9 // 14.4 // 30.8
  • In 20 Garrett games, Jones or Colt McCoy have scored 1 TD or less in 13 of them
  • QBs vs DAL: Brady (379:4:2) // Herbert (338:1:2) // Hurts (326:2:2) // Darnold (301:2:2)
  • All four QBs have thrown for 300+ yds and all have thrown 2 INT
  • Jones only INT this year was a Hail Mary before halftime last week
  • Jones first 300 yd pass game with Garrett came last week with 402 yds vs NOR, despite being down two starting WRs
  • Jones threw for 300 yds five times in his rookie year with Pat Shurmur
  • Hurts & Darnold also added 35 yds on the ground each, with Darnold scoring twice
  • Jones rushing in 2021: 6:27:1 // 9:95:1 // 8:39 // 4:27


  • Best WRs vs DAL: Brown (5:121:1), Godwin (9:105:1) // Keenan (4:108), Williams (7:91:1) // Reagor (5:53) // Moore (8:113:2)
  • Golladay has 60+ yds in 3/4 games (64, 64, 116), though his best game came without both Shepard & Slayton
  • The player Trevon Diggs has spent the most time on each week’s finishing line: Evans (3:24) // Keenan (4:108) // Devonta (3:28) // Robby (5:46)
  • With John Ross returning from IR, and 2021 1st-rd pick Toney producing 6:78 in his first game playing majority of snaps, the Giants are suddenly dealing with a very crowded receiver room pending the health of Shepard & Slayton (+ Engram being healthy)
  • Games with 50+ rec yds in 2021: Golladay (3) // Shepard (2) // Slayton (2) // Toney (1) // Ross (1) // Johnson (1)

Evan Engram:

  • TEs vs DAL: Gronk (8:90:2) // Cook (3:28) // Goedert (2:66), Ertz (4:53:1)
  • Both Parham & Cook had TDs called back vs DAL in W2
  • Those TEs all spend considerable time in the slot; Engram actually has more slot snaps than inline snaps through two games
  • Engram has just 7:48 through two games

Saquon Barkley:

  • Top RB total yds vs DAL: Fournette (59) // Ekeler (115) // Sanders (55) // Hubbard (71)
  • Backfield rec yds vs DAL: TB (39) // LAC (68) // PHI (65) // CAR (62)
  • Saquon has 52/66 RB touches on the season (52/63 att, 19/24 tg) after receiving 39/47 touches the past two weeks
  • Saquon’s targets with Garrett: 9 // 3 // 3 // 7 // 6
  • Saquon’s total yds with Garrett: 66 // 27 // 69 // 94 // 126
  • DAL still hasn’t allowed a RB rush TD
  • Saquon has a rush TD in each of the last two games
  • Saquon caught 9 passes in his matchup vs Dan Quinn’s 2018 Falcons

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 8:20pm Eastern

Bills (
26.75) at

Chiefs (

Over/Under 56.5


Key Matchups
Bills Run D
3rd DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
17th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
1st DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
17th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
11th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
22nd DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per pass


Sunday night football gives us a game that a lot of DFS players wish was on the main slate as the Bills visit the Chiefs. We have a monstrous total here of 56.5 points with the Chiefs favored by three points. Worth noting at the very start here: the field is going to build for this game to shoot out, as is common in all high-total games. And that’s the likeliest outcome, obviously. But it is not a foregone conclusion.

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Kansas City

On the Kansas City side . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Oct 11th 8:15pm Eastern

Colts (
19.5) at

Ravens (

Over/Under 46.5


Key Matchups
Colts Run D
15th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
13th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
16th DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
31st DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
11th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
32nd DVOA/31st Yards per pass


A Week 5 that was ON FIRE for OWS (you should see the Binks channel in the Discord!) comes to a close with the Colts visiting the Ravens. The game total is a modest 46 with the Ravens favored by a touchdown.

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On the Baltimore side, we have a muddled situation at running back (what else is new for the Ravens?) as Ty’Son Williams appeared to be the lead back through the first three weeks before being made inactive in Week 4. Latavius Murray took the lead with . . .

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