Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The big injury stories from this game are Vikings running back Dalvin Cook and Lions tackle Penei Sewell, both of whom have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday)
• Both teams have allowed top ten fantasy points per game to opposing backfields
• The Lions struggle to defend the deep areas of the field in the passing game, something that could spell trouble against Justin Jefferson and these Vikings
• This game has all the makings of a shootout, which likely comes down to the Lions ability to finish drives

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn’s running back-centric offense aims to incorporate deep passing through the establishment of a power run game. One of the biggest problems for the Lions has been an inability to attack the deeper areas of the field up to this point, due in part to the injury to Tyrell Williams and in part to a quarterback who struggles to push the ball downfield. Jared Goff’s 6.5 intended air yards per pass attempt ranks third lowest in the NFL of qualifying quarterbacks. Detroit’s seventh-ranked situation-neutral pass rate is a large function of a team that ranks in the top half of the league in drive success rate but the bottom half of the league in points per drive. Overall, the Lions play at the league’s 27^th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and have been forced to march the field through the run game and short passing game.

The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.545 net-adjusted line yards metric but standout rookie lineman Penei Sewell has yet to practice this week, something to monitor heading into the weekend. Lions running backs typically see a 65/35 snap rate split, with D’Andre Swift operating as the primary running back and Jamaal Williams operating as the change of pace back. The biggest thing to note from this running back rotation is that each back is fully capable in both the run game and pass game, meaning we don’t see the typical “early-down back and third-down back” split from these two. Instead, the Lions rotate them in an attempt to keep both fresh throughout the game. D’Andre Swift has seen a whopping 29 targets so far this year, the same number as Amari Cooper. His weekly touches have been highly influenced by game flow due to the wide range of offensive snaps per game from the Lions. Jamaal Williams has seen between 10 and 18 running back opportunities in each game so far, with only five total targets over the previous three games after nine (!!!) in Week 1. Pay attention to this trend moving forward.

The Lions have the lowest wide receiver target rate in the league at 50%, instead targeting running backs and tight ends at an above average rate. Although he failed to practice on Wednesday, tight end TJ Hockenson returned to a limited practice status on Thursday, but it is definitely a situation to monitor as he is such a large part of this pass offense. The struggles of the Minnesota pass defense have been in the deep areas of the field as the team has actually allowed a below average completion percentage but the sixth deepest yards per completion. This spells trouble with how the Lions have looked to attack this season with the personnel they have on hand.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Minnesota holds a large delta between their situation-neutral pace of play and their actual pace of play, with almost six full seconds of difference between the two. What this tells me is two things: the back end of their defense has underperformed (which subsequent metrics will corroborate) and they are quick to abandon their preferred methods of attack on offense (again, subsequent metrics will corroborate). Their 61% situation-neutral pass rate ranks in the top ten in the league and they are more than comfortable attacking all areas of the field on offense. The running back position is a massive part of this offense, with the lead back (either a healthy Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison) seeing no fewer than 25 running back opportunities until a Week 4 game which saw Dalvin play through an ankle injury. This makes his health of great importance to the overall fantasy appeal to the rest of the offense.

The run game matchup could not be any better for the Vikings, yielding a net-adjusted line yards metric of 4.33 against the team allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. We can expect overall fantasy production from this backfield but the level of fantasy appeal depends largely on Dalvin Cook’s status. Should he attempt to play through his ankle injury after failing to practice (as of Thursday), we are likely to see a relative timeshare similar to what we saw in Week 4, leaving both Dalvin and Alexander Mattison of little appeal. Should Dalvin miss, Alexander Mattison becomes one of the better running back plays on the slate.

The aggressive forward-back defense of the Lions has ceded some serious downfield passing up to this point. The Lions have allowed the deepest yards per completion in the NFL by a wide margin at 14.8, which is almost two full yards more than the Titans. The matchup sets up extremely well for Justin Jefferson and his downfield role, with expected volume the only hurdle for him to overcome here. In all, the Vikings should have no issues finding success in any way they choose to attack, which is likeliest to come through the running back position and Justin Jefferson.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has all the makings of a shootout but the end result likely comes down to Detroit’s ability to find the end zone at the end of their drives (although they rank towards the top of the league in drive success rate, they have struggled in the red zone). Either way, we should expect the Vikings to find offensive success on the scoreboard, likely forcing the same dink-and-dunk aerial aggression that we have grown accustomed to from the Lions. Since it is so unlikely the Vikings fail in this spot, we’re left with a tight range of expected volume outcomes when it comes to the Lions, while volume for the Vikings likely depends on Detroit’s ability to match Minnesota’s success.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• These are not the Saints we have become accustomed to over the last decade and a half, as they operate at a plodding pace and have one of the broadest touch distributions in the NFL.
• Washington enters Week 5 at 2-2 but their record is a bit of an illusion since they have the second worst point differential among the 20 NFL teams who are currently .500 or better
• Washington’s two wins have come against the 1-3 Falcons (only win was against the Giants) and the 1-3 Giants (only win was in OT against the Saints)
• The likeliest game plan for both teams involves banking on their opponent’s QB to make some costly turnovers to give them control, rather than aggressive schemes and play calling to try to take control

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

After four weeks, New Orleans ranks 30th in the NFL in Situational Pace of Play and has the heaviest run-to-pass ratio (58% run, 42% pass) of all 32 NFL teams. To say that they have pumped the brakes on the fast break offense we became accustomed to during the Drew Brees era would be a huge understatement. Making matters worse from a fantasy perspective, they are spreading the small number of offensive touches available across a wide variety of players. In Week 4, six players received a carry and 11 players saw at least one target. The lone fantasy viable player on this team is Alvin Kamara based on raw volume, but even he has seen his role changed dramatically and operated as a between the 20’s grinder last week, receiving zero targets for the first time in his career, while ceding goal line rushes to Taysom Hill. What a massive waste of a dynamically talented player in the prime of his career. We can only hope that Sean Payton comes to his senses going forward and finds ways to get Kamara involved with the money touches to provide a spark this offense desperately needs.

Enter Week 5 and a matchup with Washington’s defense that saw an offseason full of hype after a great 2020 campaign. Washington has responded to those expectations with the 28th-rated defense in DVOA while giving up an average of 30.5 points per game, despite playing zero offenses currently ranked in the top 10 in DVOA. The strength of the Washington defense has been their run defense by a significant margin; they rank 11th in DVOA run defense while ranking 29th in pass defense by the same metric. This results in a strength-on-strength situation where the best way to attack Washington is through the air but that is the exact opposite of how New Orleans has preferred to operate to start the season. The Saints have one of the top defenses in the league, and in this matchup, they are likely to bank on their defense which is the #1 graded run defense by PFF, forcing Washington to the air and creating turnovers.

Given Washington’s struggles in pass defense, it is possible that Payton will dial up a couple of designed looks that attack weaknesses he spots in their 32nd graded coverage unit by PFF. However, the method of attack is likely to be very similar to the extremely conservative plan they used last week, with the hope being that their defense doesn’t collapse at the end as they did against the Giants when they surrendered 17 points in the last 6:52 of regulation plus overtime. The Saints coaching staff is likely to view that outcome as an outlier and bank on being able to ice the game this time if they can put themselves in a similar situation. This should result in a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara rushes (and some Taysom Hill mixed in) with another game of limited pass attempts (the Saints have yet to attempt over 26 passes in a game this year).

How washington Will Try To Win ::

New Orleans has a very strong defense in all areas, ranking #2 overall in defensive DVOA and top six in both run and pass defense. Taylor Heinicke was a mess against Buffalo’s #1 ranked defense in Week 3 and we shouldn’t expect much more from him in this matchup. In that matchup against the Bills, Washington managed 21 points, but that stat is misleading as their three scores were an Antonio Gibson screen pass that he turned into a 73-yard TD out of nowhere; a short field TD after a fumbled kick return; and a garbage time TD in the 4th quarter against backups. The rest of the game was a struggle, to say the least, with Washington turning the ball over three times and failing to crack 300 total yards despite Gibson’s huge play and mostly negative game script. Due to injuries, Heinicke will also have a tough time relying on his playmakers to make his job easier. Washington is likely to be without TE Logan Thomas while RB Antonio Gibson, WR Curtis Samuel, and WR Dyami Brown are all battling lower-body injuries of their own.

Given the defensive matchup and injury issues among their skill players, Washington is likely to play conservatively and spread the ball around. One area of uncertainty lies in the Saints’ pass rush, as they have somehow managed to have the #6 DVOA pass defense despite being the 32nd graded pass rush by PFF. This divergence of ranks is likely to correct at some point and could be one of two situations. The first is that the Saints secondary and scheme is so good that it is able to cover up for their poor pass rush. The other is a case where their statistical ranks are inflated due to the QBs they have faced:

• A rusty Aaron Rodgers
• Sam Darnold in a blowout where he didn’t have any reason to press the issue
• Mac Jones in a slug-it-out affair
• Daniel Jones (who actually threw for over 400 yards)

Due to how difficult it is to run on New Orleans (we have much greater certainty that their run defense is for real, ranking 3rd by DVOA and 1st by PFF), we are likely to see Washington turn to a more pass-heavy game script, but attempt to do so in a very conservative way. Heinicke is averaging 5.7 rush attempts per game in his three starts, and coaches will likely emphasize to him this week to be patient and take the easy passes while utilizing his legs to extend plays, or tuck and run if nothing is there. He should have plenty of time to make decisions if he stays patient, as Washington boasts the #3 ranked pass blocking unit by PFF against the aforementioned 32nd graded pass rush of the Saints.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game is set up as a game of chicken, literally. Both coaches have every reason to play extremely conservative from the outset of the game, trying to maintain field position and avoid turnovers, while hoping the opponent’s QB makes a mistake that puts them in control. Due to the nature of both sides of the game, and the coaches’ awareness of those respective matchups, neither team is likely to significantly turn up the tempo or aggressiveness early in the game. Even if one team were to jump ahead by a couple of scores in the first half, the opponent likely wouldn’t have a huge fear of the leading team running away with it and putting up 30+ points. This means that both teams will feel comfortable staying with their game plans and prioritizing the efficiency of their drives late into the game rather than needing to attack, even if the game script turns negative. The Saints have elite personnel in their secondary and Washington’s receiving corps is banged up, so even if Washington turns more pass-heavy, it is likely to be done in a very conservative way that doesn’t push the game the same way that a pass-first approach normally would.

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This game environment will be one of the worst we see this season
• The Patriots threw the ball 91 times the past two weeks because of game plan
• Damien Harris has 20 carry / 2 TD upside if he maintains the coaching staff’s trust
• Brandin Cooks has volume on his side

How new england Will Try To Win ::

“Bill, you’re letting a lot of folks down. Folks you don’t want to let down,” says Dean Blandino, twirling a fork full of pasta at an Italian restaurant across from Gene Steratore as Bill Belichick walks in after last week’s loss. Maybe Belichick isn’t letting the NFL mob down, but he is letting down a lot of supporters that want to credit him with the Patriots success over the past two decades.

The Pats are in a tough spot. Sitting at 1-3, with their only victory coming against the hapless Jets, serious questions are starting to be asked about Bill Belichick’s ability to win games without the best QB to ever play. Those questions are fair. The Patriots were given a mulligan on last year’s rebuilding process, but after a flurry of spending (leading to the recent trade of Stephon Gilmore), and what is supposed to be an elite coaching staff, a return to success was expected this season. Instead, the “Patriot way,” is looking an awful lot like it was always the “Brady way.”

Bill Belichick does deserve credit for his Week 4 approach against the mighty Bucs. Outgunned, and desperately searching for a path to victory, he opted for the only approach that gave his team a chance to win which was totally abandoning the run (40 passes versus eight rushes in a game that was close throughout) and assaulting the only vulnerable part of the Bucs defense, through the air. This game plan further reinforced that the coaching staff trusts Mac Jones enough to attack the relative weakness of a defense.

Facing a pathetic Texans defense that is void of talent at all levels and has failed to hold an opponent under 21 points this season, expect the Patriots to lean on their run game after skewing pass heavy last week. The coaching staff trusts Mac Jones, but they also know that they have no reason to expose him to mistakes in a game they should be able to easily control with their defense and running game.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Houston isn’t as much trying to win games as they are trying to survive. Coming off a 40-0 drubbing at the hands of the Bills, a shell-shocked Texans team draws a desperate Patriots squad that is essentially playing for their season. The Texans haven’t been competitive since Davis Mills took over, losing 17-7 in the second half against the Browns, 24-9 against the Panthers, and 40-0 against the Bills. The Davis Mills led Texans have scored two touchdowns in their past ten quarters of football. Ouch.

It’s hard to take much from last week’s “game” because the Texans lost so badly that they gave up. Their 21 pass attempts against 18 team carries would indicate a balanced approach. In a 40-0 rout, we would expect to see a team throw the ball a lot more than we saw from the Texans. They were content to play as if the game was 0-0 because they knew trying to catch up was a hopeless endeavor. The Patriots aren’t as high-powered as the Bills so expect a balanced approach where the Texans attempt to “hide” their QB, before ultimately giving up, or letting him turn the ball over late in catch-up mode.  

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a miniature 39.5 total that reflects a game environment where both teams are expected to try and grind out a win. The Texans have a sad 15.25 team total, demonstrating just how atrocious this offense has been since Mills took over. The most likely game flow is highly likely in this contest. The Texans appear to have a stronger pass defense (8^th in DVOA) than run defense (31^st in DVOA) but that number is slanted because it’s so easy to run on the Texans and their offense doesn’t push other teams to pass. With no clear “path of least resistance” against a Texans defense that is nothing but “least resistance,” expect the Patriots to lean on their O-line and ground attack while allowing the Texans offense to struggle. The Patriots should be successful in this approach and slowly pull away as the game reaches the fourth quarter. The Texans are likely to give up, preferring to keep the scoreboard close rather than allowing Davis Mills to throw interceptions.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Miami has struggled to move the ball offensively but their relative strength matches up well here with the weakness of the Bucs defense
• Tampa Bay is coming off an ugly, emotional win at New England. They should be focused here and want to play a clean game to get back on track after a poor offensive showing
• This game sets up as one that could have a lot of plays due to the likelihood that Miami leans pass-heavy, and the efficiency with which the Bucs should move the ball
• Dolphins Head Coach Brian Flores is a Belichick disciple and is likely to try to implement a similar plan to the one New England used to slow down Tampa last week

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Miami’s offensive line is a mess. Ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate and 27th in adjusted line yards, they are poor in both the run and pass game. The result has been Jacoby Brissett attempting 119 passes over the past three weeks to the tune of 583 passing yards, an average of 4.9 yards per attempt. To put that in perspective, the lowest team in yards per attempt in 2020 was the Eagles at 6.2, and there are currently six teams in the NFL averaging more yards per RUSH than the Dolphins are getting from Brissett pass attempts. The Dolphins also have the 29th ranked rushing offense by DVOA and are facing Tampa’s top-5 run defense, making it highly unlikely they have success on the ground. 

The weakness of the Tampa defense has been their secondary as they have given up some very good performances this year. However, with the ineptness of the Dolphins offensive line, it is unlikely Miami will be able to truly attack that weakness. There really isn’t a whole lot further that we need to dig here, as incompetence in the trenches stomps out any other things the Dolphins would try to exploit in this game. Miami will need a host of things to go their way — some fluky bounces, busted coverages or missed tackles, maybe a key injury for the Bucs early — in order to keep this one close into the second half.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

There are two issues at play here that will dictate how Tampa Bay approaches this game. First, Miami’s defense definitely encourages offenses towards a run-heavy approach due to their high-end personnel in the secondary and poor middle of the defense. Second, the Bucs offense (and Tom Brady in particular) looked the worst they have all season last week at New England. 

Last week, I had the Edge writeup for the Colts/Dolphins game and talked about how the Colts were likely to attack that run defense weakness, in what was projected as a very competitive game, and the Colts lacking high-end passing game talent. This week could not be more different. The Bucs are ten point favorites and have to view the Dolphins as a team they can and should take it to. Elite teams like the Bucs do not have their tendencies decided by inferior competition, rather they dictate terms to the teams they are facing. By that I mean, sure the Bucs know they can probably run the ball on the Dolphins here but they also believe in who they are and won’t be skewing to some crazy run-heavy splits just to exploit that. Coming off last week’s ugly game, I expect the Bucs to want to put up a clean game with some explosiveness and chunk plays.

After a great 2020 season, the Dolphins’ pass defense has been disappointing by their standards to start the season and is not going to strike fear in the Bucs. All-Pro CB Xavien Howard has been disappointing by his standards, ranking 47th among qualifying CBs in PFF coverage grade. If Howard shadows, it would likely be to follow Mike Evans, but all of the Bucs WRs are talented enough to win any matchup. Even if Howard were to play at his All-Pro level from past seasons, the Bucs have the weapons to simply target other matchups. If the Bucs can score points early, the Dolphins have almost no chance with Jacoby Brissett throwing dump-offs all game. This is the 2021 NFL, you don’t go about trying to score bunches of points by pounding the ball up the middle against bad teams when you have an MVP candidate as your quarterback.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bucs should be aggressive in this spot against a struggling team that they should be able to move the ball on with relative ease. The Bucs will also likely be aggressive on the defensive side of the ball, as Brissett fails to push the ball down the field; with the 31st graded pass-blocking offensive line by PFF, the Bucs will be able to mask their secondary deficiencies by getting to the quarterback early and often. This game has all the makings of a rout, with Tampa motivated and focused while Miami is going to have huge struggles to put points up while also struggling to keep Brady from moving the ball down the field. Because the Dolphins are likely to throw a lot of short passes, there is also a good chance that the Bucs see more opportunities in terms of drives and play volume than you would usually see in a spot like this. Tom Brady is not one to take his foot off the gas early and will likely stay aggressive deep into this game, even with a lead.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Impactful injuries to both sides of the ball for the Packers; left tackle David Bakhtiari remains out after his torn ACL last season, All-World corner Jaire Alexander left Week 4’s game with a shoulder injury late, Pro Bowl outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith remains out following back surgery, and guard Elgton Jenkins has missed the previous two contests with an ankle injury
• Bengals have injuries of their own, with Joe Mixon picking up a “low-grade” lower ankle injury late in Week 4 and multiple members of their secondary struggling to maintain health
• Bengals tight end CJ Uzomah is likely to generate buzz this week after his Week 4 explosion, but that was the first game all season in which he saw over two targets
• Joe Mixon’s game day status is likely to have a large impact on the overall fantasy allure of both teams as it opens up a path to increased offensive plays run from scrimmage on both sides

How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::

After starting the season flat with a three-point showing against the Saints, the Packers are back to their slow, methodical, and efficient ways. Moderate pass rates, slow pace of play, and a high level of offensive efficiency are once again the name of the game here for the Packers. A standard week leaves the offense in the 65-70 offensive plays run from scrimmage range and Aaron Rodgers in the 32-36 pass attempt range. The biggest thing to note along those lines is that the efficiency that we’ve all grown accustomed to from this offense has returned after that Week 1 clunker, as the Packers are all the way up to seventh in the league in drive success rate after digging a significant hole in their first game of the season.

Aaron Jones has seen between 63% and 73% of the offensive snaps over the previous three weeks, which should be considered his likeliest range of outcomes as far as snap rate goes here. The Packers are completely content keeping his touches in the 18-24 range as they look to keep him healthy, typically leaving a handful of touches to AJ Dillon. The most telling stat to look at with respect to Jones’ capped touch potential comes from Dillon’s 16-opportunity Week 4 performance in a game the Packers controlled throughout (Jones saw 19). Basically, we can’t project more than 18-24 running back opportunities for Jones in even the most positive of game scripts. The matchup on the ground yields a below average 3.815 net-adjusted line yards metric and the Packers are likely to be without two starting members of their once-dominant offensive line.

The absence of Marquez Valdes-Scantling afforded a small boost to both Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb’s snap rates in Week 4, but the duo still only saw a combined nine targets. This is very much still Davante Adams’ world, the rest are just living in it. His moderate-for-him 11 targets in Week 4 came one week after he saw a whopping 54.54% of the available targets against the Niners, making him one of only a handful of NFL players capable of seeing more than half of the team’s available targets on any given week. The trio of Trae Waynes, Eli Apple, and Mike Hilton should be tasked with man-heavy coverage in Lou Anarumo’s defensive scheme against one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL against man coverage. Let’s just say I like Adams’ chances here. Both Allen Lazard and tight end Robert Tonyan should be on the field for 75-80% of the offensive snaps but both are secondary options in this passing attack. Slot man Randall Cobb scored two touchdowns in Week 4 but played only 46% of the offensive snaps and can’t be counted on for bankable volume and production.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals own the league’s second-slowest situation-neutral pace of play through four weeks, mixing a slow pace of play with elevated rush rates (sixth-highest situation-neutral rush rate at 47%). While it’s clear how they would like to try and win games, Week 5 should mark their toughest test of the season against a Packers team that has scored 35, 30, and 27 points following their Week 1 dismantling at the hands of the Saints. This could also be the first game they play without their workhorse running back in Joe Mixon, who suffered a “low-grade” ankle sprain late in Week 4. Keep an eye on his status throughout the week as Adam Schefter originally dubbed him week-to-week, which was swiftly followed up by a day-to-day declaration from head coach Zac Taylor. His game day status is likely to have a large effect on how the Bengals approach this game offensively. Furthering the wide range of potential paths of attack here is the likely absence of standout corner Jaire Alexander for the Packers, who suffered a shoulder injury late in Week 4. One last thing to keep in mind with respect to how the Bengals are likeliest to attack is the fact that Zac Taylor is very much a new-age coach that has shown a propensity to adapt his game plan as needed to best suit the available personnel and opponent. We’ll write up the remainder of this game under the assumption that both Joe Mixon and Jaire Alexander miss, and cover the scenario of Mixon playing in the tributary.

Should Joe Mixon miss, the Bengals are left with some combination of Samaje Perine and Chris Evans at running back. It is likeliest we see Perine step into the primary rushing duties while Evans handles the change of pace and pass-down duties. The matchup on the ground yields an above-average 4.55 net-adjusted line yards metric and should allow Taylor the ability to keep this team rather balanced for as long as his team keeps the score within reason. It remains to be seen how Taylor will handle a game plan without Mixon, but there is the possibility he opens up the offense earlier than he otherwise would in his absence. The final consideration to keep in mind here is the slow start from the Bengals Week 4 game against an inferior opponent that saw them trailing 14-0 at the half. Their first three possessions in the second half led to touchdowns and saw a 15-10 pass-to-rush ratio as the team played from behind. Now consider the likely absence of Mixon and injuries to the back half of the Packers defense and we could see a much more pass-heavy approach as Taylor looks to avoid a large deficit. The assumption of rational coaching is a dangerous game to play, but heavier pass game reliance seems to make the most sense here.

Speaking of the passing game, the Bengals are expecting Tee Higgins back from a two game absence this week. The NFL average for 11-personnel rates is 58% so far this season and the NFL average for wide receiver target rate is 61%. The Bengals have averaged 66% and 69%, respectively, in those two categories over the first four weeks, indicating a clear path of likeliest attack against a Packers secondary down to four healthy corners (assuming Kevin King returns from a concussion). We should see rookie Eric Stokes and Kevin King start on the perimeter, with Chandon Sullivan manning the slot. Rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has primarily played on the left side of the formation (70.5% of offensive snaps have come from that alignment), which means he should primarily see the sticky coverage of Eric Stokes (12 of 27 for only 106 yards and one touchdown allowed in primary coverage), leaving Kevin King to cover Tee Higgins and Chandon Sullivan to cover Tyler Boyd in the slot. King has been the most burnable member of this secondary over the previous 2.25 seasons while Sullivan has allowed a 111.5 quarterback rating against in a reserve role on 10 of 16 for 140 yards and a touchdown. Consider this a plus matchup for both Higgins and Boyd, with the very real possibility that we see an increase to the low 26.8 pass attempts per game seen from this offense up to this point. Finally, CJ Uzomah saw more than two targets for the first time in Week 4 which came in a game without Tee Higgins. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likeliest we see this game start out rather slow from a pace perspective with both teams clearly comfortable slowing things down. That said, the Packers are all the way up to seventh in the league in drive success rate on offense after starting the season with a complete dud against the Saints, meaning they have been highly efficient on offense over the previous three weeks. If we expect the Packers to put up points in just about any matchup, we should expect them to see success here against a defense with numerous injuries across the back half of their defense. When we then consider the likely absences of Bengals running back Joe Mixon and Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander, paired with a Packers defense ranked bottom six in the league in drive success rate allowed and points allowed per drive, we start to see a likeliest scenario where each offense is able to generate success on the scoreboard. This should keep both teams aggressive throughout the game and gives us a game environment where both volume and efficiency should largely be bankable from select pieces on both teams. 

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Denver is in an interesting situation as they are dealing with several offensive injuries and coming off their first loss of the season
• Pittsburgh is quickly approaching “time to panic” as they enter Week 5 at 1-3 with seven remaining games against 2020 playoff teams, in addition to road games at Cincinnati and the Chargers
• Both teams will likely try to lean on their defense to win this game
• This projects as a low-scoring, slow-paced game environment with very low likelihood of either team wanting or needing to turn things up a notch

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Teddy Bridgewater’s status is very much up in the air as he deals with a concussion and Denver is trying to bounce back from their first loss of the season to the Ravens. Pittsburgh should provide a tougher test than Denver saw during their season-opening three-game win streak (Giants, Jags, Jets), but is not the same level of opponent as Baltimore provided last week. This week sets up as an opportunity for the Broncos to prove themselves with a road win against a traditionally very competitive franchise. Every team in the AFC West is currently at or above .500 which makes this a critical game for Denver as they need to take care of this Pittsburgh team that has been struggling since their Week 1 win in Buffalo.

The status of Bridgewater will have a huge impact on the approach of the Broncos as well as the entire game flow of this game. Teddy has been dealing so far this season, with zero turnovers through three and a half games while pushing the ball down the field to the tune of the 6th highest aDOT among all qualifying QBs. Meanwhile, Lock’s entire career has been plagued by turnovers and the team turned away from him for Teddy for a reason before the season started. It is more than safe to say that if Lock is forced to start the Broncos will do everything they can to minimize the damage he can do to their chances of winning. Ben Roethlisberger has looked shaky, to say the least, so far this season and with Denver’s strong defense against the shaky Pittsburgh offensive line it would make sense for Denver to rely on their defense taking over in this one.

This section should more aptly be titled, “How Denver Will Try To Keep Drew Lock From Losing It For Them.” Pittsburgh has a very good run defense (5th in rush defense DVOA, 3rd in PFF rush defense grade) which will make for tough sledding for Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams on the ground. Both backs could be more involved through the air this week as they each possess the skillset to do so and with the coaching staff likely reluctant to have Lock try to stretch the field vertically, they will need to find ways to stretch the field horizontally if they want to move the ball. One of the more intriguing things for the Broncos entering this season was their dynamic receiving corps, but after injuries to Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler they lack the depth that made them so special and dynamic. Pittsburgh has traditionally been poor against slot WR’s, which could mean big things for tight end Noah Fant (who is coming off a 10 target game last week) and is featured in that “middle of the field” role that Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler would occupy, if healthy. Assuming Lock is behind center, the Broncos are unlikely to encourage aggressive downfield throws. During the third quarter last week, which was played at a 17-17 tie for the duration of the quarter, Lock targeted RBs or TEs on 7 of his 9 passing attempts and we should expect a similar dispersion this week for as long as that is a viable approach. 

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Pittsburgh is returning home for what is as close to a “must-win” game as a team can have in Week 5. A perennial playoff and Super Bowl contender for most of Ben Roethlisberger’s career, they are now staring in the face of obscurity. Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule is brutal and a home game against a backup QB is one that they absolutely must find a way to win if they want to have any shot at the playoffs.

Pittsburgh’s offensive line is dead last in the NFL with a pathetic 3.0 average adjusted line yards on rushing attempts. Facing Denver’s 6th graded rush defense by PFF, it is unlikely that the Steelers will find this game is the one where they turn around their ground attack. That means that, unfortunately, the Steelers will need to lean on Big Ben if they want to move the ball here. He has looked beyond dusty this season, with several head-scratching plays in the past couple of weeks where the Steelers actually called plays on 4th and mid-to-long where the pass was thrown behind the line of scrimmage!! While we can make our own judgments from watching the games, teams often tell us what they think through their actions. Pittsburgh’s play-calling signals that they agree with the assessment that Ben is dusty and unable to push the ball downfield consistently or efficiently. 

We’ve established that Pittsburgh will not be able to run the ball well and that Ben is not at a point in his career where vertical passing will be a fruitful endeavor. What that leaves them with is a heavy dose of short-area passing. This would mirror the approach they have been rolling with as they have thrown the ball on 75% of their offensive plays over the previous three weeks. Usually, in a spot like this (coming off three consecutive losses) you would look for a team to change up their approach to try to spark something. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh their offensive line and matchup issues are too severe for them to change course and having Ben throw 40+ times (as he has done the last three weeks) gives them their best chance at winning.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Neither team is likely to put their foot on the gas until they absolutely have to. Even if a situation occurs where one side is forced to pick up the pace and push the ball downfield, they would be unlikely to have much success given their matchups. A negative game script and trying to come back from a deficit is not a recipe for success for dusty Ben Roethlisberger and careless Drew Lock. If Teddy Bridgewater were to pass the concussion protocol and be cleared to play, it would increase the chances that Denver wins this game but would not do much to change the low percentage outcome of a high-scoring affair.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The spread nature of the Eagles offense leaves all pass-catchers best reserved for MME play
• The game day status of Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey carries a significant impact on the fantasy prospectus of all other Panther players
• Panthers have volume, aggression, a plus matchup, and a narrow distribution of targets; giddy up

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The biggest concept to understand with the Eagles is that they are very much still trying to figure things out under first-time head coach Nick Sirianni. Through the first four weeks, the Eagles have played at the third highest situation-neutral pace of play with the ninth highest situation-neutral pass rates. Their defense was supposed to be (perception coming into the year) built from the front-back, designed to eliminate the run and play heavy man coverages on the back side. The reality is this defense has allowed the sixth lowest yards per completion (9.3) but fourth worst completion rate (72.73%) through the air to this point, with a moderate 4.4 yards allowed per carry and sixth most fantasy points allowed per game to opposing backfields. What this tells us is that Philadelphia’s defense is performing from the back forward, showing teams elevated coverages downfield and daring them to attack them over the short and intermediate areas and through the run. The further consequences of this changing dynamic with respect to how this defense has looked is the second-worst drive success rate and time of possession allowed per drive. When paired with the second-best opponent starting field position, we’re left with a team that hasn’t seen the ball for very long up to this point (25^th-ranked 27:34 time of possession per game). All of this deep dive into their defense gives us a good idea of how the Eagles have been forced to operate on offense thus far, which has basically been through forced aggression, a difficult ask against a Panthers defense allowing the third fewest points per game (16.5) and total yards per game (251.5).

Overall, the Eagles have averaged just 22.5 rush attempts per game and quarterback Jalen Hurts accounts for 8.5 per game of those. This is likely mostly a function of game script and time of possession, but we can’t confidently project the running back duo of Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell for more than 15-20 combined rush attempts until we see a conceptual shift from this offense, leaving both highly reliant on touchdowns and pass game usage for their individual value. With a typical snap split of 65/35, both leave a lot to be desired, particularly in a difficult matchup.

The inefficiencies of this defense have forced the Eagles to primarily attack through the air up to this point, with quarterback Jalen Hurts attempting more than 35 passes in three out of four games. Not only is the offense also inefficient, but it is spread out. Only once all season has an individual pass-catcher gone for double-digit targets (Devonta Smith last week against a Chiefs team that scored 42 points, forcing 48 pass attempts from Hurts), and even then it is only good for a 20.8% team target market share. All of that to say, we can’t confidently project any of Smith, Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins, Dallas Goedert, or Zach Ertz for enough volume to provide a bankable floor, instead relying on efficiency and touchdowns for fantasy production.

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers have been able to leverage their defensive success through a slow pace of play (25^th) and balanced offense (middle of the pack 43% situation-neutral rush rate) through four weeks. One interesting thing to note is the tight range of offensive plays run from scrimmage and pass attempts per game through four games. The Panthers have run between 70 and 76 offensive plays in three out of four weeks, with the outlier being a 64 snap game in Week 1 against the hapless Jets. In those games, quarterback Sam Darnold has pass attempts ranging from 34 to 39 attempts, again, an extremely tight range of outcomes. Furthermore, there is nothing in each individual game script that should indicate a large shift in offensive philosophy (two blowout wins, one narrow win, and one moderate loss). What this means to me is that the Panthers are remaining aggressive deep into games regardless of game flow, a very important aspect to understand about this offense.

The ground game runs almost exclusively through Christian McCaffrey when healthy, but that is the issue this week. We don’t currently know what CMC’s game day status will be. He returned to practice on Wednesday after missing only one week with a hamstring injury. This dude is Superman. Should he play, CMC accounts for such a large portion of the available offensive touches from this offense that he needs to be in consideration each and every week he plays. The matchup on the ground yields an above-average 4.52 net-adjusted line yards metric on the backs of Philadelphia’s 31^st-ranked value (5.10). Should CMC miss, expect rookie Chuba Hubbard to see a slight bump to his Week 4 snap rate (46%) and usage (15 running back opportunities) in a much more positive expected game environment.

The proverbial crème of the crop of the Panthers skill position players this season has been DJ Moore. Moore has commanded an elite 30.3% team target market share, holds a moderate 9.7 aDOT, and has gone for 79 yards receiving or more in every game thus far. He has also seen 11 or more targets in three of four games, with the only game where he failed to hit that mark being a Week 1 victory over the Jets. The deficiencies of the Eagles defense line up almost too perfectly for DJ Moore’s game here, making him one of the top wide receiver plays on the slate (and I guarantee he will not be viewed that way by the field). The Panthers target the tight end position at the lowest rate in the league (8%), instead targeting the wide receiver and running back positions heavily. Robby Anderson enjoyed his first game over six targets in Week 4 but was largely ineffective in his downfield role. The matchup and what the Eagles cede don’t align well with that role. Rookie slot-man Terrace Marshall, Jr. has seen six or fewer targets in every game thus far, working the short areas of the field.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The high drive success rate of the Carolina offense paired with the poor drive success rate allowed by the Philadelphia defense creates a most likely game environment where the Panthers are able to control the pace and tempo here. This would again force increased aerial aggression from the Eagles as the game moves on and elevates their expected pass volume. Since the Panthers have shown such a tight range of offensive plays run from scrimmage and have remained aggressive deep into games regardless of game flow, look for a high likelihood for each team to see additional offensive plays run from scrimmage here.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Tennessee looks to rebound after an embarrassing loss to the Jets. They are in a similar situation as last week going against a winless team with a rookie quarterback.
• Jacksonville is mired in turmoil following their Head Coach’s night on the town last Thursday.
• Injuries to both sides will help to make volume much more concentrated than how we saw these teams at the start of the season.
• Two poor defenses are involved in this game, which increases the chances of a shootout game environment.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Tennessee’s plan of attack is first and foremost to get the ball to Derrick Henry 20+ times. Henry has handled an incredible 127 touches through four games to start the season and he should be in line for more of the same in Week 5. In regards to the passing game, Jacksonville is dead last in the NFL in pass defense DVOA; in PFF ratings, they are the 30th graded unit in both pass rush and coverage grades. Meanwhile, both PFF and DVOA have Jacksonville as a middle of the pack rushing defense.

Putting these things together, it becomes clear that Tennessee should have no trouble moving the ball in whichever form they prefer. Derrick Henry is a monster and Jacksonville’s run defense, while not terrible, is not good enough to make Tennessee afraid to run the ball, or likely to turn them away from how they want to play. However, the incredible matchup for the passing game makes it likely that Tennessee will be able to be very efficient through the air, especially with A.J. Brown likely to return this week to add some explosiveness to the aerial attack. The status of the Tennessee offensive line is something we should pay close attention to as the week draws to a close. Several linemen are on the injury report, and if it turns out Tennessee will be without a couple of their key members of the O-Line, it could be something that encourages them to turn more pass heavy than we would expect with such a good matchup through the air.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Jacksonville has been a different team from the first two weeks of the season to their most recent two games. After operating at a very high pace and throwing at a high rate to start the year, the Jaguars leaned more on the running game against the Cardinals and Bengals. Part of that likely had to do with trying to keep Kyler Murray off the field and building a big first half lead against the Bengals. Part of that was also probably tied to trying to keep Trevor Lawrence in one piece. The Jaguars incorporated more read-option plays last week and got Lawrence using his legs in space. This helped them sustain drives and convert several key third downs.

Jacksonville should use a steady dose of the running game between James Robinson, Trevor Lawrence, and Carlos Hyde. They will also be moderately aggressive when they take to the air, with Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones drawing attention down the field, and their RBs and TEs mixing in for some short area passing work. There will likely be some focus on slowing the game down and protecting their defense, but they have to know they are going to need to score 24+ points so I don’t think we should expect a totally conservative game plan. Tennessee ranks in the mid-20s against both the run and the pass so the matchup isn’t one where the Jags would want to avoid a certain plan of attack. Jacksonville should be able to move the ball well here, and will need to focus on converting their drives into touchdowns if they want to be competing in the fourth quarter.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Obviously, the biggest talking point surrounding this game is Urban Meyer’s actions after the game last week and what that means for the Jaguars. I think it is important to discuss this prior to digging into the game flow.

I have heard some people say they think this will have a huge impact on their performance this week or that the players may “quit” on him. I have a hard time believing that these adult professionals who are trying to make the most of their careers are going to consciously not try as hard because they are mad their coach was dancing at a bar. Bad tape or statistics stays with a player; these guys aren’t thinking about Meyer’s personal life when they get out there. That being said, I do think that in a scenario where the Titans are stomping them, there is less likelihood of a rally from the Jaguars. While they won’t actively be thinking about what has transpired during a competitive game, if things turn ugly, it will be easy for players to place blame on the coach and he certainly doesn’t appear to have the players ready to “run through the wall for him and save his job.” That type of thing would have a bigger impact on the defensive side of the ball than the offense, as offensive players are actively trying to make things happen while the defensive players will have to weigh their personal safety and career, as in “how aggressively do I want to try to tackle a full-speed Derrick Henry in the fourth quarter already down three scores for a coach who likely won’t be here Monday?”

As for the actual game, I expect a pretty balanced attack for both teams especially early on. The Titans want to run the ball but given the matchup, they will certainly not be avoiding the pass. Meanwhile, the Jaguars will likely try to establish their running game early to protect their defense and keep Henry and Co. off the field, but they also have a great passing game matchup and are quickly going to need to score points to stay within shouting distance. The Titans have multiple players capable of explosive plays that can flip the switch here, and the Jaguars also have capable playmakers in their receiving corps, as well as a prodigious talent at QB who appears to be bubbling up for a breakout game. 

The Titans are likely to score early and often. If the Jaguars can keep pace, both teams should stay fairly balanced, while if the Titans build a lead then we should see them ride Henry and the Jaguars take to the air. It is highly unlikely the Jaguars build an early lead, as they will struggle to slow down the Titans. However, in the rare event that the game went that way, it would lead to heavy Jaguars rushing as they hold on for dear life; the Titans would be highly unlikely to abandon the run as they will know they can score points in any means necessary, and that the Jags will tighten up if they get a lead.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Two teams with fairly different approaches to trying to win games
• A whole bunch of fringe plays, with no one play truly standing out as a solid mix of floor and ceiling
• One of those spots where I’ll happily let the field chase previous production on low volume plays
• Higher likelihood we see this game play to a slugfest when compared to chances at a shootout

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns continue their relentless rushing attack to start 2021, checking in second in the league in situation-neutral rush rates at 53% and 26^th in situation-neutral pace of play. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has pass attempts of 28/21/31/33 on the young season, with only one game over 300 passing yards (Week 1 against the Chiefs). His two passing touchdowns on the season are the fewest in the league amongst quarterbacks who have started every game (only Jacoby Brissett, Davis Mills, and Andy Dalton have fewer touchdowns of quarterbacks with at least 40 pass attempts). It’s quite clear how Cleveland wants to win games and they have largely been successful, currently sitting tied atop the AFC North with a 3-1 record (their only loss was Week 1 against the Chiefs in Arrowhead, a game they lost by four points). Jarvis Landry remains out for the Browns having been placed on the IR following Week 2. Not only are the Browns highly conservative, but they are also highly spread out. Only three players have even played over 75% of the offensive snaps in a single game this season: Donovan Peoples-Jones with 80% in Week 1 and 75% in Week 2, Jarvis Landry with 86% in Week 1, and Odell Beckham, Jr. with 79% in Week 4. That’s it! This is a team that is perfectly comfortable relying on a split backfield to carry the load on offense while their prevent defense keeps the opposition out of the end zone.

Speaking of a split backfield, running back Nick Chubb has been held between a 47% snap rate and 57% snap rate in every game so far, with Kareem Hunt landing between 38% and 53% in every game. Nick Chubb has “upside” for 20-22 running back opportunities in only the most positive game scripts while Hunt typically lands in the 14-18 opportunity range. There will be random games this season in which Chubb scores multiple touchdowns, but he’s going to need to hit the bonus to go along with it to provide a GPP-worthy score. Hunt’s receiving usage brings along an elevated floor, but he’ll need a highly efficient game to reach ceiling. The matchup on the ground yields a borderline elite 4.87 net-adjusted line yards metric, but it’s simply a case of a lot having to go right for either to reach ceiling against a Chargers team ceding 24.0 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

This pass game is a veritable mess. OBJ is the only player worth consideration from a floor perspective and even then he is typically held below double-digit targets. Seven to nine can be expected on a standard week. Another hurdle this week is a Chargers defense built in a similar way to these same Browns, which focuses on staying behind the game and swarming the ball at the point of reception. The Chargers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers but the fourth most per game to opposing tight ends, highlighting the soft spots in this zone-heavy scheme. All of Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant have played meaningful snaps in each game this season. Keep an eye on the Browns injury report throughout the week as multiple members of the offense did not practice on Wednesday, including tight end David Njoku.

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers utilize an uptempo offense, power run game, and heavy “X” and “Y” wide receiver involvement to wear down a defense over the course of a game. Joe Lombardi’s forward-thinking offense runs primarily through Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen and has proven extremely effective against heavy zone defensive schemes. Thus far, the Chargers rank fifth in situation-neutral pace of play and 10^th in situation-neutral pass rate (62%). The Chargers’ 64% 11-personnel rate fall slightly above the league average in 2021 of 58% (down from 60% in 2020), with the team in 12-personnel at a league average rate of 22%.

The run game draws its stiffest test of the season against a defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the backs of 3.1 yards allowed per carry and only one total touchdown allowed to the position. For comparison’s sake, the Jets allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields through four weeks at 34.4. The Browns are all the way down at 12.3 allowed per game, second only to the Broncos at 10.2. The matchup yields a paltry 3.715 net-adjusted line yards metric primarily due to Cleveland’s third-ranked 3.01 adjusted line yards allowed. Austin Ekeler leads the backfield, and rightfully so, with no fewer than 58% of the offensive snaps in any game this season. That has led to running back opportunity counts of 15/18/17/20, clearly indicating a desire to limit the wear and tear on his undersized body throughout the season. After seeing zero targets in his first game of the year, Ekeler has averaged 6.67 per game in the subsequent three. Behind Ekeler, expect some combination of Larry Rountree III and Justin Jackson to rotate through, but neither can be counted on for even double-digit opportunities.

The pass game matchup appears just as difficult as the run game does for the Chargers as the Browns have allowed a stifling 57.72% completion percentage against and moderate 10.4 yards per completion against. The low completion rate against is a testament to second-year defensive coordinator Joe Woods’ 4-2-5 zone-heavy defensive scheme, which finally has the healthy personnel to be effective. This creates an interesting matchup against the now-potent “X” wide receiver for the Chargers in Mike Williams and veteran route technician Keenan Allen, who have both proven adept at finding the space against zone coverages. This setup historically favors Keenan Allen’s abilities, but the truth is both Williams and Allen are lethal in this new-look offense. Keenan and Williams serve as the only borderline every-down pass-catchers, with all of Jaylen Guyton, Jared Cook, and Donald Parham typically residing in the 50-65% range. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Browns are going to dictate the game flow for as long as they are allowed to. Put another way, we know with a high degree of certainty how Cleveland will be looking to win here, and they will continue to do so for as long as they remain within striking distance. This plan of attack will slow the game down and reduce the total number of offensive plays run from scrimmage for each team. The Chargers are likeliest to counter the slow pace and heavy rush rates with uptempo play and moderate to high pass rates. With that in mind, this is one of the more difficult matchups for the Chargers up to this point in the season. That is to say, they are less likely than a standard matchup to find the same level of success they have enjoyed against lesser opponents, not that we should expect them to completely fail here. When you add up all the pieces of this game and how they come together, we’re much more likely to see a game of two top dogs in the AFC battling for field position and trying not to be the first to make a large mistake than we are to see this game blow up.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Bears want to hide Justin Fields as much as the scoreboard will let them
• Pay attention to reports about Damien Williams role and health
• Josh Jacobs has low-owned, price considered appeal if fully healthy
• Darren Waller has explosive upside but is priced for his ceiling

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears come into this game with a 2-2 record, still very much alive in their division. This is despite not having a true NFL caliber QB on the field. Unless . . . Fields is that guy on the field. After a disastrous Week 3, Matt Nagy was able to successfully play “hide the QB” against the Lions, as he rode his over performing defense and running game to victory. In a throwback to the 90s, the Bears pounded the rock 39 times versus only 17 pass attempts. This showed that Nagy is happy to limit Fields passing in games where he doesn’t need to throw to win.  

The 3-1 Raiders present a stiffer test than the untalented Lions, but don’t present a clear “path of least resistance” on defense, ranking middle of the pack in both run and pass DVOA. The relative weakness of the defense isn’t likely to matter much to the Bears anyway, as they are going to universally try their preferred approach to prevent Fields from making mistakes. Expect the Bears to come out running and continue to do so unless the scoreboard forces them to change their tactics.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders come into this game at 3-1, checking in above expectations early in the season. They haven’t played cupcakes either, beating the Ravens and Steelers on the road, before taking their first loss against a talented Chargers team they will see again at the Death Star later this year. The AFC West is one of the best divisions in football and the Raiders are going to have to fight all season if they want to secure a playoff spot.

John Gruden is one of the more adaptable coaches in the NFL, generally wanting to run the ball, but being willing to cut bait and chuck it as the situation and matchup require. The Raiders put up 33, 26, and 31 points in their first three games before being slowed by the Chargers. They’ve produced most of their offense through the air, despite not truly having a WR1 on the roster. The Bears defense has performed well to start the year, ranking just outside the top 10 in both rush and pass DVOA. On paper, their secondary is weak, and absent an obvious path of least resistance, expect the Raiders to probe for weaknesses in both the run and pass game, going balanced throughout while leaning towards the pass. Gruden will also consider his opponent, knowing that taking an early lead will force the Bears out of “hide the QB” mode and lead to turnover opportunities.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a 44.5 total which is on the lower side for the main slate. This total feels about right since the Bears want to shorten the game and the Raiders aren’t the type of offense that is going to run over a sturdy Bears defense. The Raiders have been installed as 5.5 favorites, favoring a game flow where they methodically pull away from the Bears eventually forcing Justin Fields to show us what he’s got in the fourth quarter. After looking like a total disaster Week 3, Fields showed signs of life in Week 4 (albeit against the Lions). The Bears defense should be able to keep them within striking distance for most of this contest, and Fields should have a chance late to try and win the game. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Two of the top six offenses in drive success rate; Niners are the only team in the NFL that has scored a touchdown on every red zone trip this season
• I’m sorry but Jimmy Garoppolo must not want to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. The dude missed half of Week 4’s contest with a calf contusion (a bruise!!!!) while a first-round quarterback is breathing down his neck
• Cardinals have allowed the most running back yards per carry in the league (5.21), primarily due to the second level (most second-level yards allowed per carry)
• Elijah Mitchell expected back after missing the previous two weeks with a shoulder injury

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Niners, we should expect this team to lean on the run for as long as possible. Their 54% situation-neutral rush rate in games Raheem Mostert or Elijah Mitchell played ranked third in the league. Over the past two weeks (both games Mostert and Mitchell missed), that rush rate dropped to 37%, highly telling with respect to how this team views Trey Sermon in my opinion. In all but negative game scripts, this is a team that would like to manage the clock via low pace of play and elevated rush rates, a plan of attack that should remain consistent if Trey Lance is forced to start due to Jimmy Garoppolo’s calf ouchie. It became clear to the world just how far Lance has to go to be an NFL caliber starting quarterback in Week 4. He looked absolutely lost, was slow to progress through reads, and was quick to tuck the football and run (not necessarily the worst thing for fantasy). His deep touchdown to Deebo Samuel was severely underthrown and completely a testament to Deebo’s ability to adjust, secure the catch, and do the rest with his legs. All of that was said to highlight the expected rush-heavy approach against a Cardinals team ceding the most running back yards per carry in the league.

For all the pushback head coach Kyle Shanahan has received from the fantasy community, particularly surrounding the two Treys (Lance and Sermon), maybe this dude knows a little bit more than Joe Schmoe sitting on the couch? Sermon and Lance have both failed to impress over their short stints of meaningful opportunities, with Sermon clearly a poor fit to a zone-blocking run scheme (out-snapped by fullback Kyle Juszczyk 82% to 51% in Week 4), and Lance clearly overmatched in a fast-paced NFL game. It remains to be seen if Jimmy G’s calf bruise is something he can play through (I can’t even with this dude, to be honest; one of the softest quarterbacks in the league), but we should expect a run-heavy approach here for as long as they are afforded the opportunity, regardless of who is under center for the Niners. The team expects running back Elijah Mitchell back for Week 5 and he should immediately regain the lion’s share of running back opportunities after seeing 19 running back opportunities in each healthy week on 64% and 61% of the offensive snaps. The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.52 net-adjusted line yards metric and the Cardinals struggle containing running backs in the second level, exactly what this Niners zone-blocking run scheme is designed to spring open for running backs.

The pass game is quite literally Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and a large gap before anyone else. Brandon Aiyuk appeared to come out of Shanahan’s doghouse in Week 3, only to cede meaningful snaps to Mohamed Sanu and Trent Sherfield once more in Week 4. Look for Samuel and Kittle to remain the only pass-catchers that approach every-down status. With the overall pass volume on this team so highly reliant on game flow, all members would require a negative game script in order to see a bump in volume. Outside of that, you’re betting on extreme efficiency here.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The basic identities of this team are a high pace of play, moderate rush rates, heavy red zone rush rates, and downfield passing mixed in with a horizontally-spread pass offense. On defense, Arizona has a top pass rush and poor rush defense. We’re finally starting to see bankable trends establish from this team now that we have four weeks’ worth of data. Expect Chase Edmonds to see about 65% of the offensive snaps, leading to 15-20 running back opportunities including significant pass game work but almost no red or green zone opportunities. Expect James Conner to eat up the remaining 35% of snaps and handle primary green zone and goal line work, with very little pass game involvement. DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green are the starting perimeter wide receivers and should play most snaps most weeks, followed by slot-man Christian Kirk in the 60-70% snap rate range and Rondale Moore in the 35-45% snap rate range. Moore’s snaps appeared the most reliant on game flow heading into Week 4, but the Cardinals dominated the game flow and he saw his second highest snap rate of the season.

The matchup on the ground yields a below average 4.00 net-adjusted line yards metric but the primary allure of Edmonds resides with his involvement in the pass game. There will be games this year where he scores through the air, giving him solid cost-considered upside albeit with a moderate floor. Behind Edmonds, James Conner can’t be relied upon for a sustainable workload barring an injury ahead of him. His heavy red zone role simply dents the utility of all members of this backfield.

As we brought up earlier, DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green remain the only pass-catchers with bankable volume. Both carry moderate aDOTs and viable red zone roles, but the overall volume of the offense is spread out enough to sap the upside of each barring extremely negative game flows. Behind those two, Christian Kirk is the primary deep threat out of the slot while Rondale Moore sees the field at a low rate but carries high per-route target rates to all areas of the field. The overall composition and utilization of this pass offense leave all four with low to moderate floors and moderate ceilings. Tight end Maxx Williams saw his lowest snap rate of the season in Week 4 at 58% and isn’t highly involved in the offensive game plan.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Niners are likely to start the game with a heavy dose of rushing, and it is likelier than not that they experience some level of success. As the game wears on, however, it is difficult to see them sticking with the high octane offense of the Cardinals, likely forced into increased aerial aggression as this game plays out. Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle should be the primary pistons of this engine. The Cardinals should be able to generate increasing pressure as the game moves on but it is unlikely they see a substantial boost to offensive play volume. The game day status of the Niners quarterbacks are likely to have an effect on Niners skill players more than it should affect the likeliest plan of attack or game flow.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Dallas leads the league in situation-neutral rush rates since Michael Gallup was placed on IR following Week 1
• We should expect that standard plan of attack to continue against a Giants opponent ranked 29^th in adjusted line yards on defense, meaning Dallas pass-catchers require the Giants to force aerial aggression in order to return GPP-worthy scores outside of multiple splash plays
• The Giants should struggle to maintain drives should Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton miss, which would leave the offense in the hands of Kenny Golladay against Trevon Diggs, Saquon Barkley, John Ross III, and rookie wide receiver Kadarius Toney
• Dallas should control this game with their surging defense and relentless ground attack
• Trevon Diggs left Week 4 after two more picks (five total through four games!) with back tightness; something to monitor, but I expect him to play

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Giants rank 12^th in the league in situation-neutral pass rate through four weeks, which can be attributed to multiple factors including neutral to negative game scripts, the lack of early-season health from their workhorse running back, and lack of early game aggression. That lack of early game aggression can be seen through the delta in situation-neutral pace of play and their pace of play when trailing by seven or more points, which currently sits at over seven seconds per play (fourth-largest delta in the league behind only Buffalo – who hasn’t trailed much this year, Minnesota, and Tennessee). The Giants have, however, shown that they can have success through the air when forced to do so, but this team should start the contest attempting to slow things down and lean on the run and short passing game.

The matchup on the ground yields a sad 3.875 net-adjusted line yards metric primarily due to New York’s struggles in the trenches. Saquon Barkley’s 13 total targets over the previous two games keep his floor high, but he should require a long rush or reception plus a score in order to return value here. Devontae Booker has seen only modest snap totals over the previous three weeks and isn’t a consideration. The Giants have shown us they would like to maintain a balanced offense and moderate pace of play for as long as they are afforded the opportunity, which hasn’t been deep into games thus far.

New York could once again be shorthanded in the passing game with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton missing practice on Wednesday. Both are likely to remain out with hamstring injuries as of now. Wide receiver Kenny Golladay plays the “X” position for the Giants, the position most likely to see Trevon Diggs shadow treatment. This leaves Saquon Barkley, an ineffective Evan Engram, John Ross III, and rookie wide receiver Kadarius Toney as the primary pass-catchers, a situation that seems less than ideal. With how the Dallas defense sets up, expect six to seven targets as the floor for Barkley here, further inflating his already rock-solid floor. The remainder of the pass-catchers simply don’t bring enough expected volume or enough skill-driven splash play potential to warrant consideration outside of the deepest of MME one-offs, and even then there are much better spots this week.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys have more or less flipped the script on their weekly game plans following the injury to Michael Gallup. They kept their heightened pass rates from 2020 through the first week of 2021 before shifting to a much heavier 12-personnel alignment rate and focusing on the ground game. Their 57% situation-neutral rush rate over the last three weeks ranks first in the NFL over that time and their pace of play is a no-longer-elite 29.18 seconds per play (seventh in the NFL). Dallas’ positional target rates fall right around league average to all three major positions but their 34% 12-personnel rate ranks third on the young season. We should expect this new-look Dallas offense to continue for as long as Gallup remains out of the lineup and they remain in neutral to positive game scripts.

Ezekiel Elliott has seen a much larger share of this backfield than public perception would dictate, seeing snap rates of 84/71/70/75% and opportunity counts of 13/18/20/21 to start the season. The pass game work has largely been missing, keeping Zeke below the top tier of running backs, but he maintains a tight window of expected opportunities weekly. Behind Zeke, Tony Pollard has parlayed modest snap shares into opportunity totals of 7/16/12/10, just enough to sap elite status out of Zeke but not enough to be a bankable fantasy asset. The perception is that he is much more involved in the passing game but the reality is his eight total targets through four games are the same total that Zeke has seen. The matchup on the ground yields an elite 5.105 net-adjusted line yards metric on the backs of the Cowboys’ top marks.

Weird angle, but we’ll start with the Giants defense here. They rank 31^st in the league in pass rush win rate and defensive end Leonard Williams missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury. Don’t expect a lot of pressure on Dak Prescott in the backfield. After attempting 58 passes in Week 1, Dak has attempted only 27, 26, and 22 over the previous three weeks (aligning with both positive game scripts and Gallup’s absence), meaning the Giants would have to force Dallas’ hand in order for us to expect that volume to increase. This makes all of CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz, Blake Jarwin, and the running backs long shots to see the required volume to return fantasy utility through the air. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Look for each team to start this game with a ground-based attack as each battle to control the field position and time of possession battle. With the shift in offensive philosophy to a team built around the run, against an opponent that should offer little resistance in that area, expect the Cowboys to handle this game with their surging defense and relentless run game. This makes the public perception of the Cowboys misaligned with the ownership on their pass-catchers over the previous three weeks, and also makes the only game flow where we can confidently project the required volume to return GPP-worthy scores one in which the Giants jump out to a big lead. That remains highly unlikely here with how these two teams are set up. The Giants are also a little bit hamstrung in their ability to keep pace or force Dallas into aggression with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton appearing likely to miss their second game in a row (both missed practice on Wednesday). 

DFS+ Interpretation ::