Lions (

19.75) at
Vikings (

29.75)

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The big injury stories from this game are Vikings running back Dalvin Cook and Lions tackle Penei Sewell, both of whom have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday)
• Both teams have allowed top ten fantasy points per game to opposing backfields
• The Lions struggle to defend the deep areas of the field in the passing game, something that could spell trouble against Justin Jefferson and these Vikings
• This game has all the makings of a shootout, which likely comes down to the Lions ability to finish drives

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn’s running back-centric offense aims to incorporate deep passing through the establishment of a power run game. One of the biggest problems for the Lions has been an inability to attack the deeper areas of the field up to this point, due in part to the injury to Tyrell Williams and in part to a quarterback who struggles to push the ball downfield. Jared Goff’s 6.5 intended air yards per pass attempt ranks third lowest in the NFL of qualifying quarterbacks. Detroit’s seventh-ranked situation-neutral pass rate is a large function of a team that ranks in the top half of the league in drive success rate but the bottom half of the league in points per drive. Overall, the Lions play at the league’s 27^th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and have been forced to march the field through the run game and short passing game.

The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.545 net-adjusted line yards metric but standout rookie lineman Penei Sewell has yet to practice this week, something to monitor heading into the weekend. Lions running backs typically see a 65/35 snap rate split, with D’Andre Swift operating as the primary running back and Jamaal Williams operating as the change of pace back. The biggest thing to note from this running back rotation is that each back is fully capable in both the run game and pass game, meaning we don’t see the typical “early-down back and third-down back” split from these two. Instead, the Lions rotate them in an attempt to keep both fresh throughout the game. D’Andre Swift has seen a whopping 29 targets so far this year, the same number as Amari Cooper. His weekly touches have been highly influenced by game flow due to the wide range of offensive snaps per game from the Lions. Jamaal Williams has seen between 10 and 18 running back opportunities in each game so far, with only five total targets over the previous three games after nine (!!!) in Week 1. Pay attention to this trend moving forward.

The Lions have the lowest wide receiver target rate in the league at 50%, instead targeting running backs and tight ends at an above average rate. Although he failed to practice on Wednesday, tight end TJ Hockenson returned to a limited practice status on Thursday, but it is definitely a situation to monitor as he is such a large part of this pass offense. The struggles of the Minnesota pass defense have been in the deep areas of the field as the team has actually allowed a below average completion percentage but the sixth deepest yards per completion. This spells trouble with how the Lions have looked to attack this season with the personnel they have on hand.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Minnesota holds a large delta between their situation-neutral pace of play and their actual pace of play, with almost six full seconds of difference between the two. What this tells me is two things: the back end of their defense has underperformed (which subsequent metrics will corroborate) and they are quick to abandon their preferred methods of attack on offense (again, subsequent metrics will corroborate). Their 61% situation-neutral pass rate ranks in the top ten in the league and they are more than comfortable attacking all areas of the field on offense. The running back position is a massive part of this offense, with the lead back (either a healthy Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison) seeing no fewer than 25 running back opportunities until a Week 4 game which saw Dalvin play through an ankle injury. This makes his health of great importance to the overall fantasy appeal to the rest of the offense.

The run game matchup could not be any better for the Vikings, yielding a net-adjusted line yards metric of 4.33 against the team allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. We can expect overall fantasy production from this backfield but the level of fantasy appeal depends largely on Dalvin Cook’s status. Should he attempt to play through his ankle injury after failing to practice (as of Thursday), we are likely to see a relative timeshare similar to what we saw in Week 4, leaving both Dalvin and Alexander Mattison of little appeal. Should Dalvin miss, Alexander Mattison becomes one of the better running back plays on the slate.

The aggressive forward-back defense of the Lions has ceded some serious downfield passing up to this point. The Lions have allowed the deepest yards per completion in the NFL by a wide margin at 14.8, which is almost two full yards more than the Titans. The matchup sets up extremely well for Justin Jefferson and his downfield role, with expected volume the only hurdle for him to overcome here. In all, the Vikings should have no issues finding success in any way they choose to attack, which is likeliest to come through the running back position and Justin Jefferson.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has all the makings of a shootout but the end result likely comes down to Detroit’s ability to find the end zone at the end of their drives (although they rank towards the top of the league in drive success rate, they have struggled in the red zone). Either way, we should expect the Vikings to find offensive success on the scoreboard, likely forcing the same dink-and-dunk aerial aggression that we have grown accustomed to from the Lions. Since it is so unlikely the Vikings fail in this spot, we’re left with a tight range of expected volume outcomes when it comes to the Lions, while volume for the Vikings likely depends on Detroit’s ability to match Minnesota’s success.

DFS+ Interpretation ::