Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
19.75) at

Vikings (
29.75)

Over/Under 49.5

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
31st DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
29th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
25th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
26th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
16th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
28th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • The big injury stories from this game are Vikings running back Dalvin Cook and Lions tackle Penei Sewell, both of whom have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday)
  • Both teams have allowed top ten fantasy points per game to opposing backfields
  • The Lions struggle to defend the deep areas of the field in the passing game, something that could spell trouble against Justin Jefferson and these Vikings
  • This game has all the makings of a shootout, which likely comes down to the Lions ability to finish drives

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn’s running back-centric offense aims to incorporate deep passing through the establishment of a power run game. One of the biggest problems for the Lions has been an inability to attack the deeper areas of the field up to this point, due in part to the injury to Tyrell Williams and in part to a quarterback who struggles to push the ball downfield. Jared Goff’s 6.5 intended air yards per pass attempt ranks third lowest in the NFL of qualifying quarterbacks. Detroit’s seventh-ranked situation-neutral pass rate is a large function of a team that ranks in the top half of the league in drive success rate but the bottom half of the league in points per drive. Overall, the Lions play at the league’s 27th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and have been forced to march the field through the run game and short passing game.

The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.545 net-adjusted line yards metric but standout rookie lineman Penei Sewell has yet to practice this week, something to monitor heading into the weekend. Lions running backs typically see a 65/35 snap rate split, with D’Andre Swift operating as the primary running back and Jamaal Williams operating as the change of pace back. The biggest thing to note from this running back rotation is that each back is fully capable in both the run game and pass game, meaning we don’t see the typical “early-down back and third-down back” split from these two. Instead, the Lions rotate them in an attempt to keep both fresh throughout the game. D’Andre Swift has seen a whopping 29 targets so far this year, the same number as Amari Cooper. His weekly touches have been highly influenced by game flow due to the wide range of offensive snaps per game from the Lions. Jamaal Williams has seen between 10 and 18 running back opportunities in each game so far, with only five total targets over the previous three games after nine (!!!) in Week 1. Pay attention to this trend moving forward.

The Lions have the lowest wide receiver target rate in the league at 50%, instead targeting running backs and tight ends at an above average rate. Although he failed to practice on Wednesday, tight end TJ Hockenson returned to a limited practice status on Thursday, but it is definitely a situation to monitor as he is such a large part of this pass offense. The struggles of the Minnesota pass defense have been in the deep areas of the field as the team has actually allowed a below average completion percentage but the sixth deepest yards per completion. This spells trouble with how the Lions have looked to attack this season with the personnel they have on hand.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Minnesota holds a large delta between their situation-neutral pace of play and their actual pace of play, with almost six full seconds of difference between the two. What this tells me is two things: the back end of their defense has underperformed (which subsequent metrics will corroborate) and they are quick to abandon their preferred methods of attack on offense (again, subsequent metrics will corroborate). Their 61% situation-neutral pass rate ranks in the top ten in the league and they are more than comfortable attacking all areas of the field on offense. The running back position is a massive part of this offense, with the lead back (either a healthy Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison) seeing no fewer than 25 running back opportunities until a Week 4 game which saw Dalvin play through an ankle injury. This makes his health of great importance to the overall fantasy appeal to the rest of the offense.

The run game matchup could not be any better for the Vikings, yielding a net-adjusted line yards metric of 4.33 against the team allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. We can expect overall fantasy production from this backfield but the level of fantasy appeal depends largely on Dalvin Cook’s status. Should he attempt to play through his ankle injury after failing to practice (as of Thursday), we are likely to see a relative timeshare similar to what we saw in Week 4, leaving both Dalvin and Alexander Mattison of little appeal. Should Dalvin miss, Alexander Mattison becomes one of the better running back plays on the slate.

The aggressive forward-back defense of the Lions has ceded some serious downfield passing up to this point. The Lions have allowed the deepest yards per completion in the NFL by a wide margin at 14.8, which is almost two full yards more than the Titans. The matchup sets up extremely well for Justin Jefferson and his downfield role, with expected volume the only hurdle for him to overcome here. In all, the Vikings should have no issues finding success in any way they choose to attack, which is likeliest to come through the running back position and Justin Jefferson.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has all the makings of a shootout but the end result likely comes down to Detroit’s ability to find the end zone at the end of their drives (although they rank towards the top of the league in drive success rate, they have struggled in the red zone). Either way, we should expect the Vikings to find offensive success on the scoreboard, likely forcing the same dink-and-dunk aerial aggression that we have grown accustomed to from the Lions. Since it is so unlikely the Vikings fail in this spot, we’re left with a tight range of expected volume outcomes when it comes to the Lions, while volume for the Vikings likely depends on Detroit’s ability to match Minnesota’s success.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • DET is 26th in adjusted seconds per play & 30th in adjusted pass rate, per numberFire
  • MIN is 7th in adjust seconds per play & 11th in adjusted pass rate
  • Both DET & MIN have had the totals go OVER in 3 of their last 5 games
  • The OVER has hit in 7 of MIN’s last 8 home games
  • The 49 total is the 6th highest among all Week 5 games

Jared Goff

  • Goff ranks 28ths in PFF grade
  • His DK log as a Lion: 32.92 // 20.44 // 9.08 // 18.76
  • In a 35 game sample, Goff averages 18.97 DK points in games with a Vegas total of 48+
  • Goff ranks 16th in DK ppg among all QBs this year
  • MIN ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to the position (20.7)

DET Passing Attack

  • DET uses 11 personnel 68% of snaps, 12 personnel at 15%, and 21 personnel at 9%
  • Team snap shares: TJ Hockenson 85.5% // Kalif Raymond 72.4% // Quintez Cephus 67.1% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 60.4% // Trinity Benson 41.3% // Darren Fells 32.2% // Tyrell Williams 26.2% (remains on IR)
  • Team target shares: Hockenson 17.9% // Raymond 13.6% // Cephus 12.3% // Amon 11.1% // Benson 8%
  • Hockenson ranks 5th in snap share, 6th in target share, 5th in WOPR, and 5th in DK ppg among all TEs
  • Hockenson against MIN: 6.2 // 14.9 // 5.5
  • Hockenson’s DK log this year: 25.7 // 20.6 // 3 // 8.2
  • In 32 career games, he averages 9.92 ppg, including 3 instances over 20
  • MIN allows 11.1 DK ppg to the TE position (13th)
  • Raymond has hit 4x his Week 5 salary just once in 12 career games
  • Two of his three best scores have come as a member of the Lions
  • Last season in TEN, his snap share was just 23.11%
  • Cephus has never hit 4x his Week 5 salary
  • Three of his five double digit DK pt games have come this season (just 15 career games)
  • His snap share was just 34.86% last year
  • Amon’s DK log: 4.3 // 4.8 // 1.2 // 13
  • Amon leads DET in slot snap share with 85.2%
  • MIN has held opposing slot WRs to lower outputs, with the leading slot snap share of all four opponents (CIN, AZ, SEA, CLE) never topping 11 DK points this year
  • MIN ranks 20th in DK ppg to WRs (41.5)

DET RBs

  • Team snap shares: D’Andre Swift 65.7% // Jamaal Williams 37.5%
  • Target share: Swift 17.9 % // Williams 8.6%
  • Touches per game: Swift 16 // Williams 13.8
  • Among all RBs, Swift ranks 10th in snap share, 2nd in target share, 10th in DK ppg, and 11th in RBOPR
  • Swift has averaged 15.51 DK ppg in 17 career games
  • Two of his five 20+ pt career efforts have come in the four games this season
  • Williams’s DK log versus MIN: 5.8 // 10.1 // 0.5 // 13.1 // 7.2 // 8.2 // 18.2
  • MIN has allowed 26.3 ppg to RBs (21st)

Kirk Cousins

  • Cousins ranks 7th in PFF grade
  • He’s averaging 22.4 DK ppg (13th)
  • As a Viking, out of 23 games with a Vegas total of 48+, he’s averaged 21.8
  • Cousins has faced DET 7 times (once with WAS)
  • That DK log: 25.5 // 8.86 // 22.22 // 32.22 // 13.58 // 20.8 // 37.3
  • In three home games, he’s averaging just 14.41 against DET
  • DET allows 19.6 ppg to QBs (14th)

MIN Passing Attack

  • MIN uses 11 personnel 50% of snaps, 12 personnel at 12%, 21 personnel at 13%
  • Team snap shares: Adam Thielen 96.9% // Justin Jefferson 87.4% // Tyler Conklin 76.6% // KJ Osborn 66.1%
  • Target shares: Jefferson 23.4% // Thielen 21.5% // Osborn 15.2% // Conklin 13.9%
  • Thielen ranks 2nd in snap share, 22nd in target share, and 31st in WOPR among all WRs
  • Thielen is averaging 17.7 DK ppg through four games
  • Thielen’s DK log against DET: 10.8 // 13.3 // 9.9 // 16.9 // 12.7 // 13.3 // 9.5 // 5.8 // 9.7
  • Jefferson ranks 14th in total air yards, 9th in air yard market share, and 13th in WOPR
  • Jefferson is averaging 20.3 DK ppg
  • Jefferson averages 23.56 DK ppg at home versus 14.08 on the road (10 games total for each)
  • Osborn’s DK log: 14.6 // 20.1 // 4.6 // 6.6
  • Osborn leads the team in slot snaps
  • Slot snap leaders (in total snaps from the slot for their team) against DET this season: Deebo Samuel 9/12-189-1 // Davante Adams 8/9-121-0 // Mark Andrews 5/7-109-0 // Cole Kmet 1/3-6-0
  • DET’s allowing 35.4 DK ppg to WR rooms (13th)
  • Conklin’s target share ranks 13th among all TEs, just ahead of Tyler Higbee
  • Conklin’s DK log this year: 8.1 // 3.5 // 20 // 5.8
  • DET allows 12 DK ppg to TEs (16th)

MIN RBs

  • In his two healthiest weeks this year, Dalvin Cook averaged 465 snaps (9th), 5.3 targets (6th), 20.3 touches (5th), and 2nd in RBOPR among all RBs
  • Dalvin averages 21.66 DK pts at home, 19.55 on the road
  • In games with Vegas totals of 48+, he averages 21.3
  • Dalvin’s DK log vs. DET: 13.4 // 14.9 // 13.8 // 30.9 // 15.5 // 42.2
  • Mattison had 51 snaps in Dalvin’s absence Week 3
  • He had just 23 in Week 4 with Dalvin back in the lineup
  • He went from 8 targets to 0
  • And 32 touches to 10
  • DET ranks 29th in DK ppg to RBs (31.2)